Convective Outlook

[ZONE 51]

(for southern england) looking like some sunny breaks could spark of some heavy downpours later, chance of thunder as estofex shows .

a rumble would even be good as ive not had any lightning or thunder for to long.

[A.J]

Perhaps a chance of some heavy showers with odd flash or two of lightning across parts of west Midlands, south-western and southern counties through late afternoon to evening period. Very low-end instability not exactly favourable for electric activity but always a chance I suppose. Shear values are impressive but as mentioned, instability is marginal at best, so no severe threat. ESTOFEX have a slight thunder risk over similar areas.

You been looking in your crystal ball again??...lol

Spot on forecast! Some heavy showers breaking out over the Midlands & Central Southern Counties...A pronounced arc of showers stretching from Oxon through to Dorset moving ENE, and some rather potent showers moving into the West Midlands to the west and north of Brum

[BlueHedgehog074]

Must have been quite alot of energy and convection going on in those showers becasue this part (see red circle in image)...

...literally developed to the East of me and there was a gap their before that area of precipitation formed to join the two showers together to make a larger one. Radar show this piece starting to form around 16:30pm.

Just incredible.

Edited May 29, 2010 by Rainbow Snow

[Harry]

These look pleasant - quite surprised there aren't the odd sferic as the rainfall appears quite intense in places...heading my way (hooray) - with some luck it might produce something a bit later on as it moves over

[Coast]

ESTOFEX have a slight thunder risk over similar areas.

Tanatalizingly close!!!!

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 30 May 2010 06:00 to Mon 31 May 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 30 May 2010 05:40

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for Benelux, W Germany and E France mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado.

SYNOPSIS

Between an upper ridge over the east-central Atlantic and an upper low over Scotland, an intense northwesterly upper jet streak translates from the Irish Sea towards NW Italy. Ahead of the upper trough, a thermal wave is present over the southern North Sea and cyclogenesis is expected. Downstream of this low pressure system, moderately warm air is advected into parts of E / SE Europe. Another upper low is present over Finland, moving to the east.

DISCUSSION

...S Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, extreme W / SW Germany, extreme E France...

Some low-end instability will form near the centre of the upper low over the SW North Sea during the afternoon. This plume of unstable air will travel to the southeast with the left exit of a 45 m/s jet streak at 500 hPa, affecting most parts of the Benelux countries, W Germany and E France. Locally, 0-6 km deep layer shear reaches values around 40 - 45 m/s and EL temperatures are forecast around -30°C so that storms may profit from the intense vertical shear. Current thinking is that some convective lines will develop, posing a threat of severe wind gusts. It is likely that some storms within the line will contain mesocyclones. LLS will reach values of 10 - 13 m/s and in this environment with rich BL moisture, an isolated tornado may form. The severe wind gust / tornado threat should be maximised between 15 UTC and 00 UTC.

[sunny scunny]

It's unbelievable here at the moment with torrential rain and hail

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some intense echoes on the radar around Norwich at the moment- shame I came up to Tyneside for the weekend where it's just cloudy!

[Wilxy]

It seems that those intense showers in EA are thundery picking up some sferies.

[Harry]

With the exception of the N side of EA and Wash area, we are yet again just missing out one the potential for some decent thundery activity. Its getting old very quickly and very frustrating

[TonyH]

Must have been quite alot of energy and convection going on in those showers becasue this part (see red circle in image)...

...literally developed to the East of me and there was a gap their before that area of precipitation formed to join the two showers together to make a larger one. Radar show this piece starting to form around 16:30pm.

Just incredible.

Ah the Swan ( or Dragon)- I had my eye on that gave some showers over the Coventry area.

Thunder and lightning now at the England Japan match in Austrai!

Aunties are on hols in Bridlington they said heavy hail there this morning.

Edited May 30, 2010 by Tonyh

[staplehurst]

Numerous anvils seen lining up to the east of Norwich today, in Norwich itself we've had some pretty hefty downpours with hail mixed in, and a very sudden increase in wind on approach of each shower. Very gusty indeed, and some very fast moving low scud at times too. Very active day here.

[Ian Fergusson]

Folks along the SE coast (especially here, but not exclusively so) might want to keep an eye out for embedded TS - tomorrow, Tuesday.... the split frontal progression is likely to generate instability in the shallow moist zone in various districts but more notably through areas of the eastern English Channel, based on latest UKMO high-res modelling and modelled profiles. Best, Ian

[Coast]

Folks along the SE coast (especially here, but not exclusively so) might want to keep an eye out for embedded TS - tomorrow, Tuesday....

Thanks for that Ian, your colleague on the Breakfast SE forecast said keep an eye out for thundery showers this morning.

ESTOFEX, UKASF, TORRO and NW not going with any watches or warnings though.

[Harry]

Liam Dutton echoed this on Radio 4 this morning - risk of thunder along the South Coast was his prediction.

[Guest FireStorm]

Let's hope it materializes & intensifies enough to give quite a decent unexpected storm for a bigger area! I Don't hold out a lot of hope though. Hardly any in fact from an IMBY opinion

Edited June 1, 2010 by FireStorm

[ZONE 51]

be cool to get some rumbles today im really missing storms. cant wait for the hot sunny weather to!

saturday night looks like we could see some storms spark of over france and move across the se maybe an MCS late evening lasting until the early hrs across se england these really could be spectacular !

[Nick F]

Radar suggests rainfall is convective along cold front extending south of triple point near south coast/IoW, could produce some sferics, though probably only out across the Channel and Nern France where the warm sector and steepest lapse rates stay.

[Harry]

Radar suggests rainfall is convective along cold front extending south of triple point near south coast/IoW, could produce some sferics, though probably only out across the Channel and Nern France where the warm sector and steepest lapse rates stay.

There's a shock, lol! Looking like being another France bags all year then B)

[Nick F]

There's a shock, lol! Looking like being another France bags all year then

Better luck on Sunday, if this morning's GFS runs with a thundery breakdown are anything to go by B)

[Harry]

Better luck on Sunday, if this morning's GFS runs with a thundery breakdown are anything to go by B)

Mmmhmm!! I will wait and see precisely when the models will shift that lot East as well!

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like thundery potential this weekend is near enough minimal on the GFS. Apart from the January snow, its been a very very boring year so far imo.

[loopydreamer]

well.... im moving house on thursday morning! we are moving to chatham in kent so i want a nice fat juicy storm to welcome me at the weekend *giggles*

i will miss the west midlands as its so spacious and green where i live but it will be nice to hopefully see a few more storms in the summer months now that i'll be living in the south east! knowing my luck redditch will have a good storm on sunday and chatham will get nothing! lol!

Edited June 1, 2010 by loopydreamer

[CattleBat]

.....knowing my luck redditch will have a good storm on sunday and chatham will get nothing! lol!

Don't worry, I will let you know if we do Yes Redditch is green and spacious, but at least you will be closer to the sea. Good luck with the move.

Jane

[Guest FireStorm]

knowing my luck redditch will have a good storm on sunday and chatham will get nothing! lol!

If you jinx my area i will seriously cry

[loopydreamer]

i'll try not to