Convective Outlook

[BrickFielder]

Today

There is a risk of a heavy shower across Wales mid afternoon and across the north of England late afternoon.

Sunday

Mid level lapse rates are not impresive.

Instability looks a bit limited.

Still some significant convective downpours are suggested.

Nick argues that convection will be elevated which having looked at the latest forecast SkewT's I would tend to agree with now.

This suggests margin instability at lower levels 950- 750hpa with subsidence around 650hpa and some margin instability from 550 - 350hpa. Kind of merky and sticky with elevated storms with some potential for sheet lightning.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS not loading again on Netweather. It seems delayed as its slowly rolling out on Wetterzentrale. Precip on the 06z looks similar though some more ppn for the West too compared to the 00z.

[The PIT]

Pretty sure they'll be no storms round here today. Clear skies and fairly fresh. As for the rest of the weekend it's a case of waiting and seeing what happens on the day.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 06z identifies 2 different areas of precip mainly:

The first area is the one towards the East and South East and another moving SW/CS England area and then through the Midlands and parts of Wales.

[ThunderQueen]

well.... im waiting in anticipation for a storm this weekend ! just moved down south from west midlands and hope to hear a few rumbles! for anyone living near chatham area, Is this a good spot for storms?

Hi loopy, I live in Chatham - and yes normally quite lucky here in Kent x x Fingers crossed for the weekend and good to know i have a fellow storm lover in Chatham!

[kold weather]

I'd be surprised if the GFS idea of the western area comes off, in many ways these events are the same as northerly airflows, they tend to be adjusted eastwards with time due to biases within the model...of course that isn't always the case.

The 06z GFS certainly is the best of both worlds, quite a large and strong area of precip coming up early hours on Sunday. The UKMO fax charts suggest the further west development would be related to a cold front developing as the wave develops a closed cirulcation, probably thundery frontal system, further east looks like some sort of MCS feature developing along the trough line.

[Costa Del Fal]

The wetterzentrale chart does suggest the western ppm being of the convective variety like in the east. All still open to question but interesting developments however.

[Coast]

[dogs32]

small tower's bubblimg up here

[Coast]

Coast. Instability will come from the mid-levels- GFS showing up some MLCAPE overspreading the channel and over southern England during Sunday morning.

Not sure if I want that or not?!!! :lol:

I could do with getting a beer and a BBQ in first, then sitting back to watch any fun!!

[DeepSnow]

Is there any chance of thunderstorms here in south/south east wales over the weekend or next week?

[Lynxus]

Awww, Thats a shame.

[ZONE 51]

latest sat . .wales/northern england looks like something could break out late aftenoon/evening and might linger to not sure if thundery tho..anyone?

im sure exited about sat night/sunday

[Nick F]

latest sat . .wales/northern england looks like something could break out late aftenoon/evening and might linger to not sure if thundery tho..anyone?

im sure exited about sat night/sunday

Sea breeze front from SW England north across Welsh borders and over the Pennines building Tcu this afternoon, some bight echoes suggesting heavy showers just west of Oswestry, Shrops over the border in East Wales.

Looking 06z NAE, MCS perhaps drifing NE across SE England Sunday morning, thundery rain across The West as an occlusion (seen on fax charts) moves in from the west:

[ZONE 51]

Sea breeze front from SW England north across Welsh borders and over the Pennines building Tcu this afternoon, some bight echoes suggesting heavy showers just west of Oswestry, Shrops over the border in East Wales.

Looking 06z NAE, MCS perhaps drifing NE across SE England Sunday morning, thundery rain across The West as an occlusion (seen on fax charts) moves in from the west:

as the ground is dry i think local floods could occur by sunday ?

looking at GFS there could be some home grown storms across the se later saturday before the imports anyone think so?

[Stormyking]

Sea breeze front from SW England north across Welsh borders and over the Pennines building Tcu this afternoon, some bight echoes suggesting heavy showers just west of Oswestry, Shrops over the border in East Wales.

Looking 06z NAE, MCS perhaps drifing NE across SE England Sunday morning, thundery rain across The West as an occlusion (seen on fax charts) moves in from the west:

I like the look of that, I am praying some thunder and lightning will be accompined with it

[ZONE 51]

I like the look of that, I am praying some thunder and lightning will be accompined with it

there be plenty of lightning n thunder im sure Edited June 4, 2010 by nimbilus

[rosgar]

Sea breeze front from SW England north across Welsh borders and over the Pennines building Tcu this afternoon, some bight echoes suggesting heavy showers just west of Oswestry, Shrops over the border in East Wales.

Looking 06z NAE, MCS perhaps drifing NE across SE England Sunday morning, thundery rain across The West as an occlusion (seen on fax charts) moves in from the west:

5 Miles WNW of Oswestry, went very dark around 30 mins ago but it's lifted since. Maybe over the mountains it could brew up later.

[Stormyking]

there be plenty of lightning n thunder im sure

I hope you are right, Might be doing an IOW storm chase lol

[twister2005]

It is getting very cloudy here now some are gettting dark too, I wonder ?

[ZONE 51]

I hope you are right, Might be doing an IOW storm chase lol

we all hope were right

[dogs32]

It is getting very cloudy here now some are gettting dark too, I wonder ?

thats me having a fag :lol:

no it does look thundery slightly....will keep my eyes out for the weekend...

Can the UK deliver?..its about time!!

not sure if I should ring a TV crew for this ???

How good are the chances for the South Coast anyone

Edited June 4, 2010 by dogs32

[Mesoscale]

the charts look awsome might have to pull an all nighter maybee, nice day today though im eating crispy shredded duck whislt trying to connect my blackberry to my home wireless >.> not much luck!!

im not getting to excited... yet!

[SalopWatcher]

WOW its gone vey dark to the West of Shrewbsury right now.... nothing thudery yet though

[Paul Sherman]

thats me having a fag :lol:

no it does look thundery slightly....will keep my eyes out for the weekend...

Can the UK deliver?..its about time!!

No - It's NOT Allowed :lol: Not until June 12th >>>>> Onwards

Pat you can have some of the 5,500jkg Cape we have today, not a good chance of Tornadoes here but 4" Hail Stones due to all that Cape (Not Nice)

£5 per 500jkg Cape > Special Offer just for today.

Seriously though good luck for the weekend, you guys deserve it after the crap early Spring and I hope you get some great Storms, going to check back over the weekend to see some pics.

Paul S