Convective Outlook

[A.J]

This area of convergence over the NW Midlands is still sparking off hefty showers...Just had a heavy shower with biiiiig drops that sprung up from nowhere...and in the last 30 mins, another two cells have popped up on radar just to my north east

...and strewth, its humid out there this evening!

Edited June 4, 2010 by ajpoolshark

[liambailey09]

The usual suspects Kent, East Sussex, Surrey, Greater London, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk are most at risk from imports by the looks of things, I'm afraid Stevenage might find things brushing to its East. :lol:

Okay thanks mate

[Noctilucid]

Okay thanks mate

Don't count on that though! Its all still quite up in the air. :lol:

Edited June 4, 2010 by jshaw

[liambailey09]

Don't count on that though! Its all still quite up in the air. :lol:

I know, i know but since i started to follow to be interested in this early last year, i haven't had a decent storm. At it seems that they don't happen anymore, i remember when i was younger i would wake up to loud thunder and frequent lightening during the night. That wasn't long ago as i'm 16 but storm potential has seemed to have gotten worse since then

[Harry]

Oh i am , i am :lol:

Ditto

Not especially optimistic to be honest - latest charts seem to try and push the stuff even further East of my location let alone Stevenage - that said the charts are weaving about a bit.

Out clubbing tomorrow night further East in Rochester til early hours so I suspect I'm going to be up and down the stairs like a fiddlers elbow for cigarettes checking to see if anything is on the way better try and get the blackberry charged too

Next update on GFS should be out now (or very soon anyway)

[Costa Del Fal]

Next update on GFS should be out now (or very soon anyway)

Time has got ahead of you-though cant blame you as you probably are excited deep down inside :lol: GFS 18z wont be out until 22:30.

[Harry]

Time has got ahead of you-though cant blame you as you probably are excited deep down inside :lol: GFS 18z wont be out until 22:30.

Naaaaah! Sometimes comes out early lol!

Though I have to say, I LOVE PHIL AVERY (just issued the most thundery BBC forecast I think for years lol) - anyone in the SE/E generally go onto the online forecast, almost what dreams are made of just said Sat into Sun, "the East could see lot of thunderstorm activity" - interesting change as well to the forecast, London up through EA towards the NE could be in for potential thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon (temps 29C in London), then imports early Sun AM and then potentially more thunder throughout Sunday daytime...

If that's ramped up anymore by the BBC, then I think if I don't get some storm activity I shall be mightily disappointed!!

[Costa Del Fal]

Naaaaah! Sometimes comes out early lol!

Though I have to say, I LOVE PHIL AVERY (just issued the most thundery BBC forecast I think for years lol) - anyone in the SE/E generally go onto the online forecast, almost what dreams are made of just said Sat into Sun, "the East could see lot of thunderstorm activity" - interesting change as well to the forecast, London up through EA towards the NE could be in for potential thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon (temps 29C in London), then imports early Sun AM and then potentially more thunder throughout Sunday daytime...

If that's ramped up anymore by the BBC, then I think if I don't get some storm activity I shall be mightily disappointed!!

What about us... :lol:

Were used to the pain of missing out...please share! Hehe.

Edited June 4, 2010 by Blizzards

[Harry]

What about us... :lol:

Were used to the pain of missing out...please share! Hehe.

I think early next week, West could do fairly well for thunder potential while the SE I'd have thought would be less favourable.

Still, wouldn't rule out the West/Midlands over the weekend, as he does mention "fingers of moisture running through the West too" not including the potential the potential SE/E event shifting further West also...

Bit up in the air, but I'd say the next few days, even in to early next week could be the most thundery period of weather in nearly over 9 months!!

[Noctilucid]

I know, i know but since i started to follow to be interested in this early last year, i haven't had a decent storm. At it seems that they don't happen anymore, i remember when i was younger i would wake up to loud thunder and frequent lightening during the night. That wasn't long ago as i'm 16 but storm potential has seemed to have gotten worse since then

Oh yus, I remember storms in the 90s that would start as I went to bed and would still be going in the morning.

I've noticed more of an Easterly shift in recent years, I remember back in 2005 where a Cold Front or trough would set up over the West country and move East and multicell storms would move NE wards through Hampshire way. Now everything seems to brush just a few miles East of here.

Edited June 4, 2010 by jshaw

[Costa Del Fal]

I think early next week, West could do fairly well for thunder potential while the SE I'd have thought would be less favourable.

Still, wouldn't rule out the West/Midlands over the weekend, as he does mention "fingers of moisture running through the West too" not including the potential the potential SE/E event shifting further West also...

Bit up in the air, but I'd say the next few days, even in to early next week could be the most thundery period of weather in nearly over 9 months!!

Yes, some charts show potential here for a time though im not sure but i agree next week its Western and Central areas that should fair best thundery wise.

[Harry]

Oh yus, I remember storms in the 90s that would start as I went to bed and would still be going in the morning.

I've noticed more of an Easterly shift in recent years, I remember back in 2005 where a Cold Front or trough would set up over the West country and move East and multicell storms would move NE wards through Hampshire way. Now everything seems to brush just a few miles East of here.

90s were lush for storms - every summer we'd experience insane, intense imports lasting for several hours, and daytime events where you'd get several storms in one day...even the early noughties were good - but the last 6 or 7 years or so have become increasingly dire, within the SE losing out on quite a bit also as well as Western areas - MCS' and the like have had a real tendency to shift East - I'm beginning to fear the increasingly infamous 'Kent clipper' will become a distant memory :lol:...then it'll be God knows how many years before the cycle resets again (which I'd expect to be the case)

Edited June 4, 2010 by Harry

[liambailey09]

90s were lush for storms - every summer we'd experience insane, intense imports lasting for several hours, and daytime events where you'd get several storms in one day...even the early noughties were good - but the last 6 or 7 years or so have become increasingly dire, within the SE losing out on quite a bit also as well as Western areas - MCS' and the like have had a real tendency to shift East - I'm beginning to fear the increasingly infamous 'Kent clipper' will become a distant memory :lol:...then it'll be God knows how many years before the cycle resets again (which I'd expect to be the case)

This was when i found storms scary and spent the night under the covers, whereas now i would probably stay up all night watching it!

[k66yla]

Hi all, Anyone know how Sunday is looking for Kent? We've a Charity Cycle ride from Maidstone to Camber Sands. We are leaving Maidstone at 9am, whats the chances of storms?

[staplehurst]

if we remember last year (July was it?), an MCS was forecast to run up in to the SW in the early hours right up until about 6-9 hours before the event, and give'm a pasting - what actually happened was the MCS swerved totally NE, hitting the SE (about 150-200 miles East of the forecast area).

Monday 25th May (Bank Holiday), I remember it well. Though the MCS provided very unexpected cloud forecast and severely hampered our chances for sever thunderstorms later in the day, which was the forecast the night before.

Pat has a quote from me (old username) in his signature I think :lol:

Edited June 4, 2010 by staplehurst

[Stuart]

ok it look not to bad for here on sat for storms. but sunday still a ?

Edited June 4, 2010 by Stuart

[davehsug]

Some heavy showers here this evening, but no electrical activity I noticed. Now very humid, much more so than before the showers.

[Neilsouth]

Hi all, Anyone know how Sunday is looking for Kent? We've a Charity Cycle ride from Maidstone to Camber Sands. We are leaving Maidstone at 9am, whats the chances of storms?

At the moment not so great , best to look again saturday evening :lol:

[matt_in_dudley]

Very warm here all day, just finished work, very humid feeling, gonna be a really uncomfortable night me thinks. Lots of cloud about over the town.

[Stuart]

ok bbc 1 weather after 10.30 look good for me on sunday

[Stormyking]

Hmm the latest run up saturday evening and sunday has the risk very sligthly more west than previous so my fingers are still crossed, even if I only do see distant lightning I will be happy but still no way am I get excited until I see it.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 18Z has kind of removed the idea of showers tomorrow for the West Midlands or at least made them lighter. Probably safe to see we wont be getting anything now! Could still change i suppose.

Edited June 4, 2010 by Blizzards

[Stuart]

i will see 0z in the morning if the storm risk still there for sat and sunday for me i be going on a ramp mod

[CaptainHappy]

Right with ya on that one Stormyking. Im just across the water from you and I would be greatful to see something in the distance. Granted we had a tiny passing storm in March, but its a shame to waste the potential we have at the moment Heres hoping the weekend comes off

Edited June 4, 2010 by Southernskies

[Mesoscale]

The ash cloud has killed my computer it turned itself off esrlier and won't go bk on so we opened it and its full off this really fine powder great just before the storms too so now I'm onn my blackberry and this stie is not designed

For mobile use I'm still holding out for tommorow dunno how I'm goona check now meh