Convective Outlook

[Costa Del Fal]

Agreed. UKMO-GM also yet to be convinced on the E-W positioning (sizeable error margin) and a more westerly bias for plume engagement wholly plausible. We'll await the next runs with interest. Timing of the breakdown also open to major uncertainty (Saturday evening onwards seems a reasoned punt for some districts...stress 'some')

Indeed, if this west based idea is still here by this time tomorrow then we hopefully have the situation agreed leaving only whether how much thundery it will be if at all of course.

If it is thundery and elevated storms are the case, hopefully they will survive the sea and last inland well. Its been such a quiet year so far!

[Mesoscale]

Indeed, if this west based idea is still here by this time tomorrow then we hopefully have the situation agreed leaving only whether how much thundery it will be if at all of course.

If it is thundery and elevated storms are the case, hopefully they will survive the sea and last inland well. Its been such a quiet year so far!

Understatment of the year

on another note lets not get too excited now!

[Stormyking]

There is this could be thundery (elevated in nature) however id wait till tomorrow evening at the earliest to say really. Positioning is still open to question though at the moment most charts seem to have moved it West from this morning when it was shown to be in the East.

Hmm, I know that this morning I think it was travelling up threw the IOW and C/S England but yeh it has seemed to be getting pushed more west as each run goes on.

I do agree that we need until tomorrow evening to get the better picture and even it will still be very hard to say on what could happen.

My fingers are crossed for a cracker:D

[staplehurst]

Hmm, I know that this morning I think it was travelling up threw the IOW and C/S England but yeh it has seemed to be getting pushed more west as each run goes on.

I do agree that we need until tomorrow evening to get the better picture and even it will still be very hard to say on what could happen.

My fingers are crossed for a cracker:D

It's only being pushed west so that the usual eastward movement can commence tomorrow

[kold weather]

What needs to be watched is the models being too far west. Time and time again the GFS has been too far west in these evolutions and in truth the whole set-up gets adjusted further east. That being said this isn't a totally steadfast rule, but its always hard to tell with the GFS whether its just the model being too far west or a real signal.

Also certainly does seem to be some timing issues with the models, the UKMO model seems more progressive in developing the thundery stuff with it occuring on Saturday eveing.

[Nick F]

12z ECM going for the more easterly option for thundery rain/storms/MCS to move north across SE/central-S and E England during Sunday morning:

[Stormyking]

12z ECM going for the more easterly option for thundery rain/storms/MCS to move north across SE/central-S and E England during Sunday morning:

That looks Interesting but I am wondering whether it will be worth me staying up all night or just get up very earlier, but that is only if it happens and dosn't help that I have college the next day

Why does it have to happen at the most awkward times but I still wont complain if there is thunderstorms lol

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS really trying to stick to its westerly theme for Sunday with some very heavy rain moving up into SW England and then Wales.

GFS also picking up the risk of an isolated thundery downpour for Wales, NW England and the Midlands tomorrow too. I suspect Orographic lifting will help so Wales and NW England at most risk e.g Snowdonia and the Peak district.

Edited June 3, 2010 by Blizzards

[Costa Del Fal]

As you said earlier, I think we're going to have to wait until tomorrow evening's model runs before we get any great detail on how Sunday will play out. GFS is favouring the more central parts but can easily be shifted east in the next few runs. Regarding tomorrow, NAE does break out convective precipitation across central and northern parts of England, but mid-level lapse rates are poor so I think light showers look more probable, with perhaps heavy showers over high ground given better lift.

I agree. Tomorrow evening onwards may firm up details but interesting to see the GFS hold on to its Westerly theme with the Fax moving things West too though not as much as the GFS of course.

[Harry]

Quite amazing really how things change so drastically (I've always known it but nevertheless it still surprises me when I see it lol ) - it wasn't too long ago that the weekend was looking rather disappointing, with perhaps isolated showers and odd storm appearing, but in general the breakdown being rather uneventful by and large. Now we are discussing potential MCS/thunderstorms/torrential rain event and where in the UK it will hit...lol

The next 48 hours are going to be discussion intensive I feel, with a growing sense of excitement (unless the charts drastically change again from some potential to zero - fingers crossed that is not the case)

[Wilxy]

Quite amazing really how things change so drastically (I've always known it but nevertheless it still surprises me when I see it lol ) - it wasn't too long ago that the weekend was looking rather disappointing, with perhaps isolated showers and odd storm appearing, but in general the breakdown being rather uneventful by and large. Now we are discussing potential MCS/thunderstorms/torrential rain event and where in the UK it will hit...lol

The next 48 hours are going to be discussion intensive I feel, with a growing sense of excitement (unless the charts drastically change again from some potential to zero - fingers crossed that is not the case)

Don't get your hopes up could change as early as just a few hours before the event. Would be nice to track tho.

[Stuart]

Storm risk have gone for me on 0z run

[The PIT]

Storms mentioned for us this morning forecast but just rain and showers for Sunday away from the South West. Lets see what happens if anything.

[Coast]

Nothing from ESTOFEX, UKASF or TORRO so far today.

General info for today:

What do we think? Slight chance for Scotland and NI today?

[Supacell]

Very confusing. BBC weather saying heavy showers and thunderstorms for later today but GFS have storm risk at about 30% for my area (which is low). Nothing on the charts Coast just posted. Even at 12 hours out I have no idea what is going to happen. I await one of the netweather experts to give there opinions.

Was never really expecting today to be a storm day but the BBC forecast this morning has got me going. Any idea if elevated storms are still expected for later tomorrow?

[Coast]

Sunday, Sunday......

Get the BBQ over and done with early?

[loopydreamer]

well.... im waiting in anticipation for a storm this weekend ! just moved down south from west midlands and hope to hear a few rumbles! for anyone living near chatham area, Is this a good spot for storms?

[Nick F]

Yes, looking at the 00z output this morning, tendency to shift the thundery potential late Saturday into Sunday towards the east. A ‘plume’ of high WBPTs (Wet-bulb potential temperatures) advects north out of France late Saturday into early Sunday towards southern England, as winds back southerly and strengthen ahead of trough (shown by wind shift) moving in from the west, this advection and trough can be seen on the theta-w charts and atmospheric wind charts for 00z and 06z Sunday:

Approaching trough, falling heights and cooling upper levels will help destabilize the plume as it advects north, with thundery rain and embedded thunderstorms developing – possibly merging, given strengthening upper winds, to form an MCS. Any storms will tend to be elevated in nature.

Although emphasis for this destabilization is further east than yesterday’s 12z, GFS still further west than ECM and UKMO with the trough, so heavy rain and storms developing Sunday morning across S-central/E Midlands/SE & E England, ECM only really sees thundery rain/storms affecting SE and E Anglia.

Next week, looking like the most likely area to see storms maybe S England and S Wales atm, especially Tuesday, then perhaps drying up from the west on Wednesday - so not looking as good this morning for next week.

[staplehurst]

well.... im waiting in anticipation for a storm this weekend ! just moved down south from west midlands and hope to hear a few rumbles! for anyone living near chatham area, Is this a good spot for storms?

Chatham tends to benefit from storms moreso than other parts of Kent, particularly where I live (in the Weald of Kent). The UHI of London effect can create storms over London which then drift down the Thames Estuary, or equally during ENE shower trains the proximity of your location to the sea helps you receive the showers during their most intense stage.

However when it comes to storms moving from the south, it all depends on whether they survive when they reach our shores. Otherwise it's just the south and east coasts of Kent that see anything, whilst the rest of us usually get just plain old rain.

[Evening thunder]

Well It's just typical it all shifts east...again. Last night I was hoping the GFS would be more in line but was thinking that the ECM may well have been correct with support from the UKMO model too.

No thunder what so ever this year so far, last year was so bad with just 5 days with any kind of thunder heard and only one 'decent' storm with more than a few rumbles nearby or overhead (15th June) just when I happened to be stuck in an exam! last time there was any decent plume event thunderstorm here was 2006, before which they seemed to happen occasionally every year.

I'm actually considering somehow travelling east on Sunday..

[Neilsouth]

I like the shifting east word , east kent can get hit rather nicely in these setups

[Costa Del Fal]

All been shunted back East from yesterday. No surprise that we just miss out.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

All been shunted back East from yesterday. No surprise that we just miss out.

C'mon, give us a break. No one's had any storms, so where ever gets it will be the first, East or West.

I was quite surprised by the BBC's forecast on Breakfast this morning, that made it look as though the North Midlands/Yorkshire/North East may get something later today or tonight.

We shall see how this develops, there's obviously a degree of uncertainty, and we're less than 48 hours away

[Alex95]

The local forecast was going for isolated showers later on today, scattered thundery showers tomorrow and heavy rain on Sunday. Tomorrow is interesting, but I doubt much will happen. Unfortunately the NE shouldn't benefit from Sunday's event.

Edited June 4, 2010 by alza

[kold weather]

Not really surprising the models have shunted the thundery stuff further east today. The UKMO now destablises the plume towards the far eastern counties, much further east and it'll occur over the North Sea. The GFS is better for a bigger part of the country and suggests probably a MCS coming up and developing over the Channel which seems reasonable enough.