Convective Outlook

[Coast]

Next Tuesday currently my favourite in a quiet period so far (but of course still a long way off yet!!)

[Michael Winston]

Hi, everybody.

Long time since I've posted - been a bit poorly. Been following this thread with interest and a big thanks to all the regulars for keeping us so well informed.

Looks good on the convection front for the north west on Sunday: maybe a bit will come our way down into Brummieland!

Kind regards,

Mike.

[Nick F]

Well it looks increasingly likely that the developing warm dry snap will breakdown with a wimper, as seems to be the norm these days, ridging from Azores across Biscay beneath the approaching Atlantic trough arriving late Sunday/early Monday not allowing warm moist air advection ahead of front likely to introduce cooler and more unsettled mobile Atlantic weather for next week. I suppose we can hope for some diurnal convection next week with low pressure nearby.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some scattered thundery showers are likely on the 5th June but it does look like potential is surprisingly low given the synoptic setup.

Regarding next week I think a lot depends on the strength of the jet and secondary low development. I think a relatively slack low over the UK could deliver a fair number of heavy thundery showers but if we get a lot of shortwave/frontal activity we're looking at something dull and wet and with low thunder potential.

[Harry]

I'd take thundery rain* to be perfectly honest

* For clarity, heavy/torrential rain with embedded thunder and lightning

[dogs32]

prity poor this year so far I hear for TS.....Surely not another dead year for Thunderstorms for most

Edited June 2, 2010 by dogs32

[Mesoscale]

Its june already and have only heard one bit of thunder, even compared to 2007/8 this year is very much behind and those years there were hardly any and not one significant storm.

Lets hope this years back building to unleash the mother of all storms!

How frustrating, im just hopeing that the GFS figures will increase the thunderstorm activity on sunday but most unlikely! sigh!

[dogs32]

Its june already and have only heard one bit of thunder, even compared to 2007/8 this year is very much behind and those years there were hardly any and not one significant storm.

Lets hope this years back building to unleash the mother of all storms!

How frustrating, im just hopeing that the GFS figures will increase the thunderstorm activity on sunday but most unlikely! sigh!

We must be due for some severe storm's now as this as gone on for quite a long time..

Anyway back on topic and GFS and chart's ect.. reading

Edited June 2, 2010 by dogs32

[Noctilucid]

not another dead year for Thunderstorms for most B)

Certainly not for everyone though, last year I had a run of 7 weeks where thunder was heard on at least one day.

Edited June 2, 2010 by jshaw

[Nick F]

Unfortunately, the synoptics so far this spring haven't really favoured storms with dry and cool airmasses being dominant alot of the time. Last storm I had was late March, an unexpected storm in the evening in an unstable moist southerly flow.

Still some divergence from the models this evening with regards to late weekend and early next week with the breakdown from the Atlantic, quite like UKMO which extends a negatively-tilted upper trough SE across Biscay into Iberia t+120 - 144 - this could potentially give an interesting set-up convective-wise, an increasingly unstable airmass with risk of some storms moving up from France and home-grown storms. Though I always feel a bit sceptical about UKMO at this range, especially when it's different from GFS:

[Supacell]

Nice to be back on the forums after a period with no internet (although I have been reading the forums as best I can from my mobile phone).

Have to say that May 2010 goes down as one of the poorest May's for thunderstorm activity that I can remember. Lets hope for better in the coming months. I haven't seen a thunderstorm now since last July!

As for the coming weekend - it would appear that the GFS is still not going with the potential for any decent storms, maybe a chance towards the SE of a weak storm but nothing noteworthy for this time in the year. Met Office and BBC are still talking about thundery showers on Sunday though and, as Nick says, the charts from the Met Office are more promising.

I am keeping my fingers crossed that the Met Office are right on this one.

GFS still showing some storm potential for next week but this is a long way off and I will take it with a pinch of salt unless it is still showing by the weekend.

[Nick F]

GFS still showing some storm potential for next week but this is a long way off and I will take it with a pinch of salt unless it is still showing by the weekend.

Yes, Tuesday onwards GFS suggests diurnal storm potential over England and Wales as an upper cold pool and surface low move E/SE steepening lapse rates, jet way to the south so no severe potential likely ... of course some way off and likely to change given model divergence as early as t+120.

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm does not look to bad.... well from this chart anyway for Sunday. Moist ,warm air moving up from the Continent and fronts out West destabilizing the warm airmass although taking some time for later storms to develop...Perhaps a MCS[meso convective system] from this chart?!

[Nick F]

Ecm does not look to bad.... well from this chart anyway for Sunday. Moist ,warm air moving up from the Continent and fronts out West destabilizing the warm airmass although taking some time for later storms to develop...Perhaps a MCS[meso convective system] from this chart?!

500mb flow on that chart (shown by bands of different colours) is usually the wind level that steers any storms, and as they are from W or WSW, probably not conducive to a MCS. Winds at the surface light and variable but probably warm and moist. I expect there could be a few heavy showers and maybe even some storms around on Sunday as weather fronts try to introduce cooler air from the west. Though too far off to give detail

ECM seems to be going the way of GFS, so probably can scrap the UKMO idea!

[ANYWEATHER]

500mb flow on that chart (shown by bands of different colours) is usually the wind level that steers any storms, and as they are from W or WSW, probably not conducive to a MCS. Winds at the surface light and variable but probably warm and moist. I expect there could be a few heavy showers and maybe even some storms around on Sunday as weather fronts try to introduce cooler air from the west. Though too far off to give detail

ECM seems to be going the way of GFS, so probably can scrap the UKMO idea!

Cheers Nick......Well here is hoping to at least a rumble of Thunder!! B) :lol:

[Nick F]

Saturday night into Sunday morning looks potentially interesting, with a thundery trough developing across SE UK as warm moist theta-w plume axis advects north out of France across the SE corner with strengthening southerly upper flow. Storms could develop in plume axis.

This morning's fax charts show a developing cold front at Sun 00z (shown by triangles with dots between) marking the western edge of the warm moist plume, this then shifting east by 12z:

Still too far off to put any meat on the bones, but better prospects than were showing yesterday. Next week looks quite convective across whole of the UK as low pressure moves in.

[Coast]

Next week looks quite convective across whole of the UK as low pressure moves in.

I have my fingers crossed! Although still a bit too far away, the signs have been growing steadily.

[Stuart]

but my risk going down the pan fast

[Supacell]

Storm chances are looking much better on the GFS 00z run but at the same time the Met Office and BBC Forecasts appear to have removed the 't' word from there forecasts

Still, a lot to look forward to and have to say the coming few days show more promise than has been the case recently. Next week still looking good with the warm/humid air appearing to hold in the Southeastern quarter of the UK into Monday and bringing the risk of some decent convective potential.

[Coast]

I can only hope that the lack of anything substantial so far this season, means we are 'stocking up' electrical energy for a big storm soon!!!!

[Tom Montalbano]

Yes plenty of potential for some thundery activity to develop over the week-end, with perhaps some thundery showers breaking out as early as Saturday and then a more organised band of thundery rain/showers moving up from France on Sunday, some home grown storms likely as well. Potential looks good into next week as we remain in an unsettled, humid set-up with pressure pretty slack over the B.Isles with the likelihood of heavy thundery showers developing.

As usual, all subject to change of course but this mornings out-put looking pretty good for storm lovers.

Regards,

Tom.

[Harry]

I love when charts begin to improve, as opposed to what we're used to 90% of the time which is they collapse very quickly

[snow raven]

I saw the weather on News 24 just before 10am, and they are mentioning storms on Sunday. They had the storm symbol for London on Sunday, but did say that storms could crop up pretty much anywhere...

[Costa Del Fal]

How typical all the fun looks reserved for the East again.

[The watcher]

Yes, certainly best chances seem reserved for Southern and Southeastern parts on Saturday/Sunday.