Model Output Discussion

[SP1986]

Definitely been more in the way of HP this year, it's been very dry in general.

As for the 18z, not a bad run for those who like settled weather. Wouldn't get the t-shirts and shorts out though, even though high pressure takes over it's actually rather cool for the time of year.

FI is interesting to observe from a learners perspective as it shows sequentially what happens when the jet stream gradually moves south of the UK after being north of it.. interesting stuff.

[Thundery wintry showers]

GFS 18Z throws up a slightly different scenario with the HP further west but also further south, and crucially staying close enough to prevent much in the way of frontal activity coming around the eastern flank of the high. Dry and sunny with near average daytime temps (feeling warm in the sun) and cool nights would be the most likely result. It highlights that really we still can't be sure where the high is going to end up.

Edit: I'm aware that this assessment doesn't apply post T+180 when the high retreats a bit, but I think it's way too far out to pin small details like that down.

Edited June 8, 2010 by Thundery wintry showers

[Eugene]

I tend to think the summer will be plagued with odd H.P. incursions that folk would die for over winter!

Yes if you mean like this weekend with cool northerlies you could be right, most people on here hate HP dominated winters though as all they like is snow and nothing else i'm afraid but in summer they are happy with boring weather patterns.

We could be in for cool northeasterlies after the initial northerly.

[mushymanrob]

this weekends settling down seems to be put back into early next week. all models show this. although the weekend wont be bad,on current runs, itll not be quite as nice as earlier predicted.

the ukmo has backed down off yesterdays possible 'hot' evolution, well at least delays it, and pressure is highest to our west. pressure over the continent is low... looks like they might be getting a very wet june...

in all, theres not much sign in the immediate future for a return to warm settled weather, id discrible this mornings runs as 'disappointing'.

[TEITS]

Yes if you mean like this weekend with cool northerlies you could be right, most people on here hate HP dominated winters though as all they like is snow and nothing else i'm afraid but in summer they are happy with boring weather patterns.

We could be in for cool northeasterlies after the initial northerly.

The difference being is that HP in winter can bring freezing fog and sub zero temps whereas in summer HP can bring pleasantly warm sunshine despite a cool airmass. I find nothing boring about sunny intervals and temps around 20C in summer.

Speaking of temps and although this weekend can hardly be described as a heatwave, some locations could still reach temps of 19/20C. This with sunny spells will feel very nice indeed. Plenty warm enough for anyone having a BBQ or party during Englands opening game.

[The PIT]

Not a fantastic looking weekend with cool northerlies and one or two showers around. Rain into the North west during Sunday. No sign of any prolonged warm sunny weather either if the GFS is too believed. Will have to wait too see if the ECM agrees with it.

[SP1986]

The reality is the models are showing an unsettled start, gradually moving into high pressure as we move past the weekend.

The models havent changed in their outlook much, even the UKMO looks similar to yesterday.

[mushymanrob]

id welcome the complete 06z, high pressure becoming established over the weekend and it stays throughout the run. never really a large centre to our east, so chances of plumes, heat and thunderstorms are low.... but after a second wet day working ill welcome a month of dry sunny weather now!

[Eugene]

The difference being is that HP in winter can bring freezing fog and sub zero temps whereas in summer HP can bring pleasantly warm sunshine despite a cool airmass. I find nothing boring about sunny intervals and temps around 20C in summer.

lol yes so by the sounds of your post you admit HP in winter can bring more varied conditions than HP in the summer, HP is more interesting in winter than summer as it can bring clear blue skies, freezing fog, cloud cover and of course snow if situated in the right place, in summer it doesnt really bring much variation, i guess though next week interesingly enough with cool air aloft and HP moving in well on runs apart from ECM 00Z inland parts are at risk of a ground frost with unusually cold nights for mid June.

Stephen Prudence will tell you too once the sun starts to goes down and if you are in the shade if we have a cool airmass aloft and cool dewpoints it will feel chilly after 7 pm, alot of people like it nice and warm until dusk not getting chilly when they are out in the garden in their deckchair.

Btw i like settled conditions just saying it can get boring if lasts too long in the summer, most people on here like heat and thunderstorms, well no chance at all of that looking at the latest runs i guess averageness and cool nights suits you which is fine.

Edited June 9, 2010 by Eugene

[Frosty.]

A nice GFS 06z run for the majority of the british isles with high pressure to the south and a ridge covering at least 80% of the BI during FI, it still looks like becoming a little cooler and much fresher feeling later this week as a N'ly develops with a few showers for the north but most areas becoming dry and brighter, pressure rising through the weekend and more especially by early next week with warmer temps returning but less humid and most if not all of next week is looking fine and pleasantly warm with temps into the high 60's to low 70's f, just a risk that nw scotland and the n.isles could end up catching stronger sw'ly winds and a risk of some rain and showers but it could equally be fine there too.

[Kentish Kiwi]

lol yes so by the sounds of your post you admit HP in winter can bring more varied conditions than HP in the summer, HP is more interesting in winter than summer as it can bring clear blue skies, freezing fog, cloud cover and of course snow if situated in the right place, in summer it doesnt really bring much variation, i guess though next week interesingly enough with cool air aloft and HP moving in well on runs apart from ECM 00Z inland parts are at risk of a ground frost with unusually cold nights for mid June.

Stephen Prudence will tell you too once the sun starts to goes down and if you are in the shade if we have a cool airmass aloft and cool dewpoints it will feel chilly after 7 pm, alot of people like it nice and warm until dusk not getting chilly when they are out in the garden in their deckchair.

Btw i like settled conditions just saying it can get boring if lasts too long in the summer, most people on here like heat and thunderstorms, well no chance at all of that looking at the latest runs i guess averageness and cool nights suits you which is fine.

What an antagonizing post. Averageness in the summer with cool night can be extremely pleasant and enjoyable for many of us who like to comfortably enjoy the outdoors in the short time period this country's climate allows. Of course there is a chance of heat, its the summer and the outlook from the latest runs ie the GFS 6z is one of high pressure predominance, something that is likely to bring with it heat given enough time to build and thereafter the chance of thunderstorms.

I don't think TEITS ever denied that HP is more varied in the winter, he just said that just because HP situations in summer aren't as varied, it doesn't mean they're 'boring'; even if it may be more 'interesting' I'd much rather HP in the summer than the winter anyway.

We don't need Stephen Prudence (no disrespect to him) to tell us that it can get chilly after 7pm under the right conditions in June, as it realistically can at any time of the year, I think we are perfectly capable of experiencing and knowing that for ourselves. I'm sure it felt chilly all day in a number of places today anyway.

Also, I very much doubt ground frost is likely at all, other than notorious of frost hollows in the north, although they may well get chilly. First of all, the airmass won't even be THAT cold anyway and by the time conditions settle down sufficiently to allow such frost to occur with winds light enough and skies clear of residual cloud, we will be getting very close to the longest day (with the associated shortest night), in addition to SW flow off a rapidly warming, already mild, ocean.

I assume when referring to frost you are looking at Monday night/Tuesday Morning at +141 on the GFS were it shows lows of -1 in the far North of England? Not only is that still notably far out and subject to change considerably in terms of details, not too mention the GFS' tendencies to significantly over(or under)-estimate night time lows at that range, but it is only 6 days out from the shortest night, which in the far north will be a very short time indeed. This coupled with a very long day and extensive sunshine under the necessary cloudless skies will lead to good warming of the ground, which will have little time to cool, further limiting ground frost potential. Needless to say, I will be very surprised if what the GFS is predicting comes off, but I guess, as ever, we will see and only know when the time comes.

Would be interesting to find out if there have been ground frosts recorded in the UK at around 5 days before or after the 21st of June recently (ie the last few years), would surely need some exceptional conditions for it to occur.

Edited June 9, 2010 by Kentish Kiwi

[peterf]

latest frost i ever recorded was the 9th of june 2007 i think.

saying that i am in a well known frost hollow.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not sure about the suggestion that high pressure brings more varied conditions in winter than in summer. The main difference is that anticyclonic weather defaults to sunny with above-average temperatures unless there is a pronounced cool and/or moist airflow around the periphery of the high or weak fronts penetrate, which is not the case in winter- which is one of the reasons why there is a significant inverse correlation between sunshine and rainfall in summer but not in winter.

Some do find prolonged dry settled weather boring for various reasons- lack of variety and lack of convective activity being two of the most common- but others do not, it is just a matter of taste.

With all due respect Eugene I think you could do with toning down the antagonism and subjectivity in some of those posts.

Ground frosts in June are not unusual in the north, especially in prone frost hollows, though air frosts outside of the most prone locations are very rare. I think it will be another case of the GFS overstating cold nights. The GFS 06Z does strongly suggest a prolonged warm dry sunny spell with the high extending right across to the UK, but again a notable word of caution is that the high doesn't reach us until after T+144 and the ECMWF 00Z did not support that scenario.

[mushymanrob]

What an antagonizing post. .

agreed.

i cannot fathom why summer high pressure is boring and winters arnt. no variety?... nonsense! we can get cloudy highs, we can get crystal clear highs with cool fresh air, we can get milky skied humid highs, etc. the inferance that summer highs only bring one weather type is ridiculous.

[Eugene]

I know you don't like when i say this but ask Mr Data he'll tell you ground frost has been recorded on the summer solstice so ground frost certainly is possible in mid to late June under anticyclonic conditions and with cool air aloft it is very possible especially in inland rural areas away from urban heat.

And it certainly didnt feel chilly today i was sweating walking around, its very muggy today and overcast.

Averageness in the summer with cool night can be extremely pleasant and enjoyable for many of us who like to comfortably enjoy the outdoors in the short time period this country's climate allows

So is averageness in the winter with temps of 7C by day and 0C by night but many will moan on here including TEITS its not cold enough even this past winter many moaned it wasn't cold enough or snowy enough when it was one of the best winters in over 30 years, seems double standards to me to moan about averageness in winter but not in summer.

[Kentish Kiwi]

I know you don't like when i say this but ask Mr Data he'll tell you ground frost has been recorded on the summer solstice so ground frost certainly is possible in mid to late June under anticyclonic conditions and with cool air aloft it is very possible especially in inland rural areas away from urban heat.

And it certainly didnt feel chilly today i was sweating walking around, its very muggy today and overcast.

I never ruled out that frost hadn't been recorded around the June solstice and even later in the summer, although I would have thought that wouldn't have occurred in recent times? I guess I do sometimes underestimate how cold this country can get in the summer even with its very long days, its warmer in many places back in NZ at the moment than a third of the UK, and its nearing the winter solstice there (obviously a different climate but still remarkable given the time of year) such as Auckland which has a high of 17 and low of 14.

"And it certainly didnt feel chilly today" - that may well be for you, but for many in the North and East temperatures struggled to get above 12 degrees, with some hardly making it to double digits, surely that counts as chilly given its well into summer.

So is averageness in the winter with temps of 7C by day and 0C by night but many will moan on here including TEITS its not cold enough even this past winter many moaned it wasn't cold enough or snowy enough when it was one of the best winters in over 30 years, seems double standards to me to moan about averageness in winter but not in summer.

When I say comfortable I mean being out and about without the need for heavy clothing etc, more just t-shirt, shorts and maybe a light jumper. Again, its a completely personal opinion, but I don't find any temperature through the winter months comfortable.

Edited June 9, 2010 by Kentish Kiwi

[The PIT]

Looks like a cool weekend with rain moving south during Sunday. High pressure does build in after that for a brief FI summer. I think the weekend really revolves round how fast can the high push in and how far. I guess it's still a waiting game for this weekend.

[mushymanrob]

well the 12z gfs suggests a shifting high pressure cell that eventually ends up to our east, fi has depressions coming in off the atlantic... huh, i wonder what the next run will guess at!

it does look fairly certain that pressure will nudge in slowly from our west, early next week is looking pleasant.

[Eugene]

Well i think our last few posts should be moved to another thread as we are taking this thread way off topic, its silly to argue anyway.

Back on topic GFS 12Z is showing drier weather not necessarily sunny weather from saturday onwards, temps could reach the late teens/ early 20's in sheltered southern spots mid teens further north with more cloud around, nights could be chilly and there is a risk of ground frost in rural areas under any clear spells, temps should hold up just enoiugh to escape any ground frost in cities and town centres though and there could be a cool ish pleasant northeasterly wind in the south and east.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Do you think that warm and settled weather is looking increasingly likley next week? Maybe not exactly on topic for this thread but I do not like having to wear a coat or layers in the summer months period! I think summer should be summer. Even though we do not live in a mediterrian climate we should expect at least some warm and settled weather in the summer months. The good thing though is that thier has not really been that much rain (in my area at least) over this so called "unsettled" week. I have noticed that the consensus on this forum is againsed this year being a particually good summer but do you think that some of the long range forecasts could actually be wrong and we do get a really good summer on the lines of 2006 or 1995? Remember a lot of people on this forum were saying that it was going to be a mild winter (including Ian Brown as we all know) but it actually turned out to be the coldest winter since 1978 - I see no reason to rule out a hot summer too!

Luke

[Eugene]

Hi Luke,

Yes it is looking increasingly likely it will turn more settled from saturday, 850's are taking a dip from current values so it will feel alot fresher but in the sun of course it will feel warm, not 100% sure it will be end to end sun though as some cloud could roll down from the northwest and even some rain from it but this should die out before reaching the south, you in liverpool will escape the rain in the next few days but might not on sunday, the worst place to be in the next few days is in the far south/southeast.

Yes we could get a 2006 or 1995 type summer in July and/or August as nobody knows that far ahead yet.

[MP-R]

Although next week doesn't look brilliant, it certainly doesn't look bad - definitely drier and warmer by day but fresher by night.

Though the week commencing the 14th looks nice on FI atm with some much more summery weather on offer. Of course this will change in some way but something nice to look at nonetheless:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

[TEITS]

Btw i like settled conditions just saying it can get boring if lasts too long in the summer, most people on here like heat and thunderstorms, well no chance at all of that looking at the latest runs i guess averageness and cool nights suits you which is fine.

Personally I love when the temps in summer only rise to around 20/21C with spells of sunshine. This is more than comfortable enough to be wearing t shirts and shorts. However I cannot stand HP in winter when it only brings cold, dry, frosty weather. The reason being is I find the low max/min temps uncomfortable plus increases my heating bills. Still little point in discussing this because we all have our different preferences.

The UKMO is the perfect run for me.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

[Eugene]

Ok fair enough but i love dry cold frosty weather in the winter, much better than mild, wet and windy, cold with clear blue skies in winter is just fantastic for taking long walks in the countryside, anybody else agree?

Some cool uppers from ECM 12Z being pulled down from the northeast, i feel monday could be rather chilly and overcast in the midlands/SE on this run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

[Milhouse]

Ok fair enough but i love dry cold frosty weather in the winter, much better than mild, wet and windy, cold with clear blue skies in winter is just fantastic for taking long walks in the countryside, anybody else agree?

Some cool uppers from ECM 12Z being pulled down from the northeast, i feel monday could be rather chilly and overcast in the midlands/SE on this run.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Yes Monday could feel chilly, but before then its shaping up to be not a bad weekend. Temperature wise its not great but with lighter winds especially on Sunday it should feel pleasant when the sun is out. Further into next week its looking a much drier week than the one were in at the moment. the UKMO12z as TIETS suggests shows the best positioning of the high out of all the models although the GFS isnt too bad, before the Atlantic breaks through in FI.