Convective Outlook

[Kain]

Well thats basically it, the cell is weakening to the south, nice to see the edge of the small anvil though, first time this year.

I very much doubt anything will form behind these cells, but its still pretty muggy out there, doesnt feel at all fresh like usual.

....I stand corrected, almight rumble that just set one of the car alarms off in the carpark!

[Alex95]

It's gone very black to my southwest now, low cloud rolling in from the North Sea though so I think that even if there was any storms moving towards me they would fizzle out rather quickly.

[Costa Del Fal]

Stourport on severn, really gone dark here now, raining but the thunder and lightening still seams in the distance.

Lightning to your West or South?

[Jane Louise]

The Met Office has now put up a weather warning for Heavy and thundery showers in Gloucestershire:) I have my fingers crossed once again Lol

[weatherobsuk]

Looking at the Radar Loop and Vis Satellite there's potential in the Central Midlands for some big home-brewn storms to break out in the next few hours until 4pm at least. As the Front over the North Sea is exiting quicker than the Front is in Wales, there's a huge area opened up over Central England where the cloud has cleared and airmass has become destabilised.

I'd expect that once convection occurs in this region it'll explode quite rapidly into cluster-storms, heading towards The Wash.

[Stuart]

well there more metoffice Warning out but still none for me

Edited June 6, 2010 by Stuart

[Ian Fergusson]

Lightning to your West or South?

It's all still mostly due south of you - flashes in last 5 mins from about 1 miles south of Great Witley.

[kold weather]

That complex looking very good right now heading towards B'ham, they have kept up a solid apperence for a little while now. Also got a nice little cell heading close to the Worcester which is showing above 32mm per hour returns.

Looks like the W.Midlands is the place to be in terms of the deep convection. Also one other cell I'm keeping an eye on is the one heading eastwards through Norfolk with the heaviest just passing over RAF Marham right now.

[VillagePlank]

The question for me, being a NIMBY sort of chap is will the CAPE be realised in the London area? I realise Estofex went for the far south-east corner today, but it really does seem like a line west to east north of the M4.

Figures look promising, and with CIN of just one, perhaps even marginal triggers might be able to push through

I will be interesting to see the Herstmonceaux 12z sounding when it comes out. Especially if the indices hold out as TT seems to suggest that t/storms are likely, with isolated severe (in line with Estofex) although shear migth be in short supply which could indicate potential but no result (ignoring K-index here)

We shall see - a watching game. Nice to hear of cells sprouting up to my west, though. They seem to tend to pep-up through orgographic forcing as they hit the north downs.

EDIT: just notice MetO warning for London/North Kent area.

Edited June 6, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Anvil Crawler]

Just had a bit of a downpour here and winds picked up but nothing thundery as yet.

[TonyH]

The major downpour/ storm zone would seem to be that over Worcestershire and will cross the south Midlands this afternoon- probably south of Coventry, with still the chance of isolated ones ahead of it too.

[twister2005]

cool weather warning valid til 1900 so you never know cant see anything atm but will keep everything crossed !

[Costa Del Fal]

Thunderstorm is reaching Kidderminster now.

[Serendipity]

One rumble of thunder and some spots of rain here, very cloudy.

[Crimson_Sprite]

goin dark to my west but think the storm/shower will pass me south. Just south of Ludlow is small but mighty looking, and stourport, you should get slammed any second now.

[Katherine]

I'd expect that once convection occurs in this region it'll explode quite rapidly into cluster-storms, heading towards The Wash.

Should I get excited about this?

[Kain]

Thunderstorm is reaching Kidderminster now.

I was just about to say if anyone is closer to Kiddy they might get what I just had, though it is weakening pretty rapidly. Just spotted some nice rotating scud too..bounus!

[kold weather]

EDIT: just notice MetO warning for London/North Kent area.

Yep that makes sense given the strong set of cells that are moving eastwards through S.London and Kent, looking quite lively which isn't all that surprising given there is decent instablity aloft as you say VP.

[Gord]

Now coming over here. Gone very dark....haven't really seen or heard anything yet though. About to kick off at any second.

[Ross B]

A line of small cells/storms setting up over West Central Scotland now. Very heavy shower here in Kilmarnock, not heard any thunder yet but it seems to be just starting to take shape!

[Gord]

Heavy rain and very gusty winds here now.

[VillagePlank]

Yep that makes sense given the strong set of cells that are moving eastwards through S.London and Kent, looking quite lively which isn't all that surprising given there is decent instablity aloft as you say VP.

Yes - must purchase NetW radar! Just got that nasty bell ringing in the back of my head that a T_dd will form to early, and collapse as the back-end cells approach thus stripping out any chance of that 'turbo' boost to break CIN (even though CIN is low)

My theory is that if there is one thing that will go wrong, it will. Still, glancing West in much hope this afternoon.

Edited June 6, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Stuart]

Thunderstorm is reaching Kidderminster now.

lucky you

[Costa Del Fal]

Turning darker to my W now.

[Snowyowl9]

Cooler air now from this NW wind and a heavish shower,still this is the best NW flow for a decade for thunder.