Convective Outlook

[Kain]

Confirmed, sat out on my balcony and just had a rarther deep rumble, strike alert going off too now. Wonder why theres no sferics showing up on the radars?

[Alex95]

Just spotting on to rain for the first time since Tuesday, but that lot to my south looks pretty boring now.

[azores92]

looks like one nasty shower, but then thats it for today, no new cells seem to be forming after the one in the south shrops area.

[Costa Del Fal]

looks like one nasty shower, but then thats it for today, no new cells seem to be forming after the one in the south shrops area.

We look like getting it full on here. I was expecting more showers behind though but there is still a few hours maybe for that.

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi Ian,

From what I can see the showers coming out of wales now over West Midlands are pushing across the penines to affect yorkshire and east yorkshire later this afternoon.

The high res NMM model shows this clearly;

Yes, the NAE and UKV in broad agreement, albeit taking the clusters also a tad further northwards (compared to the NMM) into Yorkshire / Durham / Tyyne & Wear and the majority then exiting 'stage right' into the North Sea by around 20-21z. Also a signal for some hefty cells later into this evening in the NW (to the south of Cumbria).

[Lynxus]

"S-SW Midlands / N Glos / N Wilts / Oxon and environs"

Hey Ian,

Looking at the latest Sat and Rainfall radar, your not wrong.

Its quite evident that something is going on, Looking North of Glos and NW of Glos there are some humdingers rocketing and this shows up very well on the latest radar echos.

Considering its only 14:00 this is good.

Some people are going to see something special.

Areas i think will see something..

[Kain]

Now seen some CG's now I know I aint loosing my marbles, thunder is getting more frequent too

[sparky1972]

cracking storm just gone through here, plenty of lighting and loud thunder, rain was a bit heavy also, we had a good storm here just after midnight also.i have just returned from florida where we also had some very good storms.

[Costa Del Fal]

Getting Darker to my SW now.

[TonyH]

Heavy shower over south Coventry with further small ones developing across Warwickshire and Cotswolds.

[Crimson_Sprite]

Confirmed, sat out on my balcony and just had a rarther deep rumble, strike alert going off too now. Wonder why theres no sferics showing up on the radars?

oooh yay!! I love the deep thunder, especially when it rolls on for ages. Odd how there is no sferics showing up, as this storm looks really full-on. Enjoy it and keep us updated!!!

[Lynxus]

Im gonna go mow the lawn or wash my car, That should bring the thunder out.

[kamboocha_mushroom]

Looks like there's finally something noteworthy moving up this way! not a single drop of rain yesterday as the main cells passed to the east, then agonizingly, some more passed to the north-west.

[Costa Del Fal]

Small-scale trough across the west Midlands contributing to the development of showers and thunderstorms. Other showers or thuderstorms can develop in an instant, behind or ahead of this trough but for now, this is the main area of focus for convection. Strongest cell over the region has weakened slightly, but still chances for it to re-develop and/or for other cells to form alongside it.

Still very thundery though.

Maybe some more showers will from as the trough clears a bit.

[Lewis]

Yes, the NAE and UKV in broad agreement, albeit taking the clusters also a tad further northwards (compared to the NMM) into Yorkshire / Durham / Tyyne & Wear and the majority then exiting 'stage right' into the North Sea by around 20-21z. Also a signal for some hefty cells later into this evening in the NW (to the south of Cumbria).

Cheers for that Ian,

The NAE for me has been on par recently, it was spot on last night. More of the same please

[Stuart]

think i going to give up now for the day

[Snowyowl9]

Dark TCU just passed here merging and another heavy shower started all this is coming in from the NW/wind and lower cloud NN/W,thundery shower to the SE along way off to here that!!

[SalopWatcher]

Just back from a quick jaunt up to Oswestry and back and there was some very heavey rain and flooding on the roads! Lots of cracking on the radio too... never quite saw anything mind. Back in Montford Bridge and we seem to be in the gap between the Oswestry/Ellesmere stuff heading north east and the storms to the south of Shropshire....

[Katherine]

cracking storm just gone through here, plenty of lighting and loud thunder, rain was a bit heavy also, we had a good storm here just after midnight also.i have just returned from florida where we also had some very good storms.

Thunder from that heard in Boston, Sparky! One pulse of heavy rain just gone through. Any more on the way?

[carl1980]

hoping for thunder from the band about to hit merseyside

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi Ian,

From what I can see the showers coming out of wales now over West Midlands are pushing across the penines to affect yorkshire and east yorkshire later this afternoon.

The high res NMM model shows this clearly;

Yes, the NAE and UKV are in broad agreement with NMM, albeit taking the clusters largely a tad further northwards later, into Yorkshire / Durham / Tyne & Wear and the majority then exiting 'stage right' into the North Sea by around 20-21z. Also a signal for some hefty cells later into this evening in parts of the NW (NW Pennines, to the south of Cumbria). The driver for this is a shortwave trough and associated high vorticity.... it'll get swept-up ahead of the main trough arriving from the west and in doing so, provides a quite distinct focus for the showers / t-storms into the NE this afternoon and evening.

Edited June 6, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[sparky1972]

Thunder from that heard in Boston, Sparky! One pulse of heavy rain just gone through. Any more on the way?

i hope so.

[Essexgooner]

Im gonna go mow the lawn or wash my car, That should bring the thunder out.

and hang the washing out, lol

[twister2005]

has a small shower here but nothing now could anything form this way ?

[davehowe]

Heavy shower just formed west of Margate NW radar.

Sky black to the west.