Winter 2010/11

[kold weather]

Honestly its a tough call this winter as per normal...I think the La Nina is going to be the dominating pattern, pretty strong Azores Highs, but on the otherhand the QBO signal may still be positive enough to suggest a fair few chances of cold in the first half of winter. So its a tough call but if I had to punt overall whether its above or below average, I'd say above average but thats not to say we won't have a potent cold spell in there, in fact I personally think we may well see that occur with a 2 week spell down at 0-1.5C temps. Europe could well be quite cold as well this winter IMO.

[Backtrack]

Honestly its a tough call this winter as per normal...I think the La Nina is going to be the dominating pattern, pretty strong Azores Highs, but on the otherhand the QBO signal may still be positive enough to suggest a fair few chances of cold in the first half of winter. So its a tough call but if I had to punt overall whether its above or below average, I'd say above average but thats not to say we won't have a potent cold spell in there, in fact I personally think we may well see that occur with a 2 week spell down at 0-1.5C temps. Europe could well be quite cold as well this winter IMO.

Kold, how can you predict 5-7 months in advanced? Ian brown tried the same as you did 1 month in advanced and he failed.

With all due respect, it is not possible to yet say whether this winter will be cold, average or mild!

Edited July 27, 2010 by Backtrack

[Weather-history]

Why are we talking about winter this far out?

Does anyone have any ideas what this autumn may bring?

Is it going to be wet? Stormy? Dry? Indian Summer spells?

I think its about time we stop ignoring this season and the long range forecasters to concentrate their efforts on this season, now and then maybe in October start seriously considering winter possibilities.

Edited July 28, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Coast]

Why are we talking about winter this far out?

Does anyone have any ideas what this autumn may bring?

Is it going to be wet? Stormy? Dry? Indian Summer spells?

+ 1 - thank you Kevin!!!

[jethro]

Can anyone offer any glimmer of hope that the Autumn will be mild and wet?

[Backtrack]

Can anyone offer any glimmer of hope that the Autumn will be mild and wet?

Sure. We live in the UK.

[Gavin P]

I think we'll get some much needed rain this autumn. I'm thinking we could get two out of three wet months, so either September and October or October and November or maybe even September and November. I quite fancy a wet September this year, but the one thing thats holding me back is the continuing low solar activity, which I think tends to be associated with dry, anticyclonic Septembers.?

But anyway Jethro, don't despair, rain should be on the way in the next season.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.svalbard-images.com/

Already looking "nippy" to our North !!

[kold weather]

As for the Autumn, the UKMO long range ensemble is very keen on a high pressure cell close to the UK, from what I've seen its actually quite a strong signal as well and it makes sense given we are in a strengthening La Nina and the subtropical belt has been pretty strong on the Azores belt.

Backtrack, of course its jsut a best guess based on how things are lining up, if the AO tries anything like it did last winter again in thwe late Autumn then it'll certainly be possible for some great cold to come along but equally we could end up with a 1998-1999 style winter, as that year globally has been very similar, the only difference is the Azores high has been stronger this summer so far which has shown I feel for the summer.

[johnholmes]

Why are we talking about winter this far out?

Does anyone have any ideas what this autumn may bring?

Is it going to be wet? Stormy? Dry? Indian Summer spells?

I think its about time we stop ignoring this season and the long range forecasters to concentrate their efforts on this season, now and then maybe in October start seriously considering winter possibilities.

yes well said Kevin

its rather silly in my view to have a fixation, or so it seems with some, over winter, there is still 34 days of official summer, September can have 'summery' weather, even early October.

Lets think about winter once we are in autumn, and it would seem much more sensible to be discussing what prospects for September into November are just for now?

[Gavin P]

As for the Autumn, the UKMO long range ensemble is very keen on a high pressure cell close to the UK, from what I've seen its actually quite a strong signal as well and it makes sense given we are in a strengthening La Nina and the subtropical belt has been pretty strong on the Azores belt.

Kold, how did you manage to view the MetO long range model?

yes well said Kevin

its rather silly in my view to have a fixation, or so it seems with some, over winter, there is still 34 days of official summer, September can have 'summery' weather, even early October.

Lets think about winter once we are in autumn, and it would seem much more sensible to be discussing what prospects for September into November are just for now?

Most weather nuts tend to like extremes, so that means in winter they focus cold/snow and in summer heat and thunderstorms. So at this time of year the focus tends to start to shift to winter and at this point in winter the focus tends to start to shift to summer. The two transitional seasons, autumn and spring, tend not to get so much of a look in because they don't really display weather extremes.

Personally I always look forward to autumn because the journey from summer to winter is always a fascinating one for me, but most people find autumn a boring, depressing season and aren't very interested, alas.

Edited July 28, 2010 by Gavin P

[azores92]

high pressure Edited July 28, 2010 by azores92

[kold weather]

Kold, how did you manage to view the MetO long range model?

Someone posted it on another forum, I'm trying to find it again but have to adit I'm struggling. What it did show for ASO period is very slight low pressure in the Mid Atlantic, strong high in the NE N.America and also a similar high but a touch weaker over the UK stretching east into Scandinavia, looks like a winter lovers dream sort of chart!

[Gavin P]

Someone posted it on another forum, I'm trying to find it again but have to adit I'm struggling. What it did show for ASO period is very slight low pressure in the Mid Atlantic, strong high in the NE N.America and also a similar high but a touch weaker over the UK stretching east into Scandinavia, looks like a winter lovers dream sort of chart!

Thanks mate.

If it wasn't for our cynical, nasty media getting on the Met's case everytime one of their seasonal forecasts go wrong, we'd all still be able to view the Met's longer range model output.

Edited July 28, 2010 by Gavin P

[Nick L]

Thanks mate.

If it wasn't for our cynical, nasty media getting on the Met's case everytime one of their seasonal forecasts go wrong, we'd all still be able to view the Met's longer range model output.

But the cold hard fact is that they got more wrong than they got right!

[Optimus Prime]

Metoffice did really pootr for the seasons 2009-2010.

Mild winter was the forecast for 2008/2009 but ended up cool

Cold spring forecast for 2009 but ended up very mild

Warm summer 2009 but ended up pretty average for the UK as a whole

Average mild Autumn forecast 2009 but ended up unusually mild

Mild Winter forecast for 2009/2010 but ended up cold/very cold

That's pretty dismal.

Edited July 28, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[Moomin]

Metoffice did really pootr for the seasons 2009-2010.

Mild winter was the forecast for 2008/2009 but ended up cool

Cold spring forecast for 2009 but ended up very mild

Warm summer 2009 but ended up pretty average for the UK as a whole

Average mild Autumn forecast 2009 but ended up unusually mild

Mild Winter forecast for 2009/2010 but ended up cold/very cold

That's pretty dismal.

Sorry if this ideviating from the topic a little but I have been suprised at how in accurate the Met Office have been over the last few years, even at short timescales. A good example was last Saturday, we had the BBC/Met office forecast saying that it would be dry, bright and warm - grey but bright. Netweather on the other hand suggested it would be wet in the afternoon but warm, netweather forcast was spot on met office was wrong, we had persistent moderate drizzle all afternoon. I deal with probabilistic risk forcasting for a living so I understand the uncertainty associated but I cannot understand how they can be so far off particularly at such short timeframes - this is just an example I've spotted many over the last few years. I find it worrying as I use a lot of met office data and have to be confident in it.

[Gavin P]

But the cold hard fact is that they got more wrong than they got right!

Long Range forecasting is experimental, which means it has a poor accuracy rate. However, if it wasn't for the backlash we'd still be able to view the long range model output that at the end of the day we're still paying for and the Met are still using, all-be-it privately.

I think its a real shame that the Met have been forced into taking their long range model out of the public domain.

Metoffice did really pootr for the seasons 2009-2010.

Mild winter was the forecast for 2008/2009 but ended up cool

Cold spring forecast for 2009 but ended up very mild

Warm summer 2009 but ended up pretty average for the UK as a whole

Average mild Autumn forecast 2009 but ended up unusually mild

Mild Winter forecast for 2009/2010 but ended up cold/very cold

That's pretty dismal.

The Met seemed to run into trouble when temps took a plunge after they reached that peak in the 2006-2007 period. I'm not sure whether their model is biased against cold or whether the Met just don't like forecasting cool seasons, but it definately seemed to be from the cool, wet summer of 2007 onwards that the guys at Hadley ran into trouble.

Edited July 28, 2010 by Gavin P

[Don]

Thanks mate.

If it wasn't for our cynical, nasty media getting on the Met's case everytime one of their seasonal forecasts go wrong, we'd all still be able to view the Met's longer range model output.

Yes I agree with this. Although the Met Office's long range forecasts have been poor for the last couple of years, I don't think they should have withdrawn them from the public. I don't think it's a case that they don't like forecasting cold seasons as they forecast Winter 2005/06 to be cold. I think it's down to their long range model output.

Edited July 28, 2010 by Don

[Gavin P]

The Met could still abstain from actually making seasonal forecasts, but with all the caveats about it being experimental, etc... they could still allow the public to view the long range model output. Thats all I want really, to still be able to see the model. If the Met don't wish to actually forecast seasonally, then thats their decision, but it'd be nice to still be able to view the long range model. After the backlash though, I understand why they have taken the stance they have.

Edited July 28, 2010 by Gavin P

[Cheese Rice]

Well the Chinese models suggest a milder than average autumn across the whole of the UK, so an Atlantic dominant autumn looks probable, perhaps one could say the current pattern we are in could persist till the autumn, which to me doesn't seem that unlikely.

Then a dramatic shift Globally to below average temperatures, however for the UK Scotland looks slightly above average which would suggest an Atlantic dominant pattern with the South East slightly below and most of England average. So a battle ground scenario looks likely with areas with average temperatures looking to be at the center of the battle ground, with the south east experiencing a more continental dry winter.

The US models suggest a below average Autumn, so more in-line with the Met models.

The Chinese model looks similar to the US, northern parts of the British Isles experiencing more Atlantic dominated weather and slightly above average temperatures, again England and Wales experiencing average to below temperatures.

My Forecast

Autumn-

After an Atlantic driven second half to Sumer the theme continues with the Atlantic in full control of the UK, the first half of Autumn looks unsettled and wet, again Southern areas experiencing drier and brighter weather, during this period temperatures across Northern areas average-below and above average in the south. To-wards the second half of the month more emphasis on high pressure, dragging in cool cloudy easterlies bringing below average temperatures for eastern areas and average temperatures for Western areas.

Overall- Temperatures slightly below average in Northern areas and above average in the south.

Winter-

Similar to Winter 08/09, spells of colder weather lasting 1-2 weeks with milder interludes, Scotland experiencing shorter cold spells and a higher emphasis on Atlantic driven Milder weather. Southern areas heavily influenced by high pressure bringing cold dry weather with Wales/N.England in the middle of the Atlantic driven north and cold south bringing battle ground scenarios, the cold never leaving the South and East.

Overall- Temperatures slightly above average in the North and Below average South of Scotland, significantly so in the South and East.

Edited July 28, 2010 by 10123

[Gavin P]

Nice round up.

Edited July 28, 2010 by Gavin P

[jonathon]

has anyone seen weather outlook they are saying that there could be snow in austria in mid august and snow in scotland near mid september i said winter would start early anyway.

[Cheese Rice]

has anyone seen weather outlook they are saying that there could be snow in austria in mid august and snow in scotland near mid september i said winter would start early anyway.

Just Ignore it, they forecast the same last year, early snow for North England/Scotland in Sep, it never happened.

[Guest]

Just Ignore it, they forecast the same last year, early snow for North England/Scotland in Sep, it never happened.

Perhaps above 2,500ft? That would be fairly normal I would think.