General Storm Thread

[Harry]

I find this an interesting snap shot of ECMWF - I would say there is some potential for the ridge to build in here, which if it does, could mean a burst of summer to come, and also the potential for a plume, given the orientation of the LP and ridge.

Rather more worryingly, what on Earth is that monster to the far West!!

Edited August 19, 2010 by Harry

[vortex_liam]

An area of low pressure is moveing in from the west according to the metoffice charts and GFS

With that also comes some cape. I'll post the charts when i'm back from work

So its looking good for sunday - monday

Edited August 19, 2010 by Vortex_Liam

[Hurricane Buckley]

I find this an interesting snap shot of ECMWF - I would say there is some potential for the ridge to build in here, which if it does, could mean a burst of summer to come, and also the potential for a plume, given the orientation of the LP and ridge.

Rather more worryingly, what on Earth is that monster to the far West!!

That my friend is the next hurricane to develop, it will be a massive hurricane that will find it's way into the jetstream hitting the the UK with strong winds and heavy rain.

[vortex_liam]

That my friend is the next hurricane to develop, it will be a massive hurricane that will find it's way into the jetstream hitting the the UK with strong winds and heavy rain.

I hope you are right

[Hurricane Buckley]

I hope you are right

There is a tropical wave developing..the NHC should be watching some areas soon..it will test out my new vantage Vue station, cant wait!!!!

[Stuart]

friday risk of storms been upgread for my area let see over the next few runs:D

[Lynxus]

I find this an interesting snap shot of ECMWF - I would say there is some potential for the ridge to build in here, which if it does, could mean a burst of summer to come, and also the potential for a plume, given the orientation of the LP and ridge.

Rather more worryingly, what on Earth is that monster to the far West!!

That is odd looking,

The bars are quite tightly packed, But the pressure isnt that low....

Shure must be breezy under it though..

[Evening thunder]

Yep, considering that would probably still be a hurricane, it sure would be rather breezy under it.

I notice interesting colors tonight/tomorrow on the Met Office Invent forecast rainfall maps http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/ They look thundery there, any chance they could be?

[Hurricane Buckley]

Yep, considering that would probably still be a hurricane, it sure would be rather breezy under it.

I notice interesting colors tonight/tomorrow on the Met Office Invent forecast rainfall maps http://www.metoffice...ent/weathermap/ They look thundery there, any chance they could be?

Some very heavy rain to come for areas of the South West and Wales, Wales looks to be taking the brunt of it today

Latest Radar:

GFS PPN:

Edited August 19, 2010 by Hurricane Buckley

[Evening thunder]

Yeh, looks like it going by the MetO advisory as well and the GFS precip charts. I think there will be some heavy outbreaks moving through the SW this evening but Wales probably getting more overall.

[Marcus_surfer]

Some very heavy rain to come for areas of the South West and Wales

Rain has started but no "Very Heavy" rain yet, i think the worst of the rain will develop over highest ground.

[Hurricane Buckley]

Rain has started but no "Very Heavy" rain yet, i think the worst of the rain will develop over highest ground.

Not until this evening does it really pick up

[Supacell]

How about tonight and tomorrow?

I was thinking it looks possible for some thunderstorms and posted something to this effect a couple of days ago. Now Met Monkey are mentioning a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

http://null.co.uk/?page_id=7

[A.J]

Yes, should have mentioned that tomorrow also holds a risk of thunderstorms as is part of the same set-up. Along and ahead of the cold front looks to be focus for thunderstorm development and given upper environment - there is slight potential for severe thunderstorms across the parts of the country. Tomorrow the risk looks to be mainly over N England and S Scotland, and into Saturday the risk transfers southward over the Midlands, Eern and Sern parts of England as waving cold front shifts SE over the country.

Possible storms for our area??....That would be sods law, of course.....as this weekend I'm down in Devon until Sunday evening

[Louby]

I with ya on the sod's law front AJ, I was suppose to be up your way for the next week but am stuck down here

[Sunny Android]

Tomorrow the risk looks to be mainly over N England and S Scotland, and into Saturday the risk transfers southward over the Midlands, Eern and Sern parts of England as waving cold front shifts SE over the country.

Tomorrow I'll be driving the M62 for nearly the full length so if the risk looks to be mainly over N England, I could catch it.

[Harry]

Saturday into Sunday continues to look slightly interesting as upper low N of the UK draws in a warm, moist SW'erly upper flow over the country during the period. Current FAX output shows a waving cold front over N Midlands/Nern England associated with the surface low N of the UK, as well as warm front associated with the short-wave SW of the UK.

Current GFS output still modelling some instability over Midlands and Eern England as temps are progged to reach into the low 20s and dew points into the upper teens. Looks also to be a highly sheared environment for severe convection - limiting factors for this, however, could be amount cloud cover and lack of dry mid-level air with a saturated upper profile. Though if temps are progged to reach into the low-mid 20s during late afternoon Saturday, then it be assumed that sufficient cloud breaks are likely to occur. Risk of storms could well carry on through into the evening and overnight into Sunday given warm, moist air mass in place.

We've had moist upper flows much of this summer, and as such not really benefited much from thunderstorm potential. Low level moisture with cold dry air overcutting/intrusion would be nice for a change I think this weekend will bring really much of what we've had already this summer - some heavy (locally torrential) frontal rain with perhaps the odd spark here and there. Once the front clears the potential for some post frontal showers with a scattering of thundery downpours.

A point of interest I hold currently is the potential for a trough to form across S/SW England and marginally into the Midlands ahead of the CF on Saturday. This I think could give rise to some thunderstorms and there is a very modest amount of CAPE available too, but otherwise I'm not that convinced of anything overly exciting at this stage.

I'm intrigued on the MetO fax chart with the shallow (possibly thundery) Low which is forecast to develop across C/N France - a lot of activity likely over the near continent in the coming days and I am quietly praying that the synoptics will adjust slightly

We've had Highs and warm weather rapidly slide of the charts leading us to having cool miserable weather - with a dynamic setup like this there is always the possibility of the LP to our N keeping further West and allowing some more 'continental' weather to creep across our shores........how hopeful (deluded) do I sound

Edited August 19, 2010 by Harry

[Nick F]

Interesting but uncertain potential for tomorrow over Nern England being overlooked ... instability looks to develop just ahead of cold front moving in from the west and with fairly decent deep layer shear we could see organisation of any convection developing near cold front with a strong wind gust threat and strong low-level shear looks to develop as winds back ahead of front - so isolated tornado potential could exist.

t+24 fax for 12z Friday:

Lightning wizard charts show good LL shear/Storm relative Helicity with sig. tornado parameter/supercell comp. param area over Nern England:

Strong convective wind gust threat:

Cloud shield maybe restrictive in storm development though with lack of insolation, though PVA focring from arrival of left exit of jet from west may compensate.

Convection/storms also possible across Eire/Scotland to west and north of CF too in rPm airmass.

[Harry]

Not sure what you mean here - are you referring to trough as in an upper air disturbance? The focus for thunderstorm development looks to come from the waving cold front pushing south and east during Friday and Saturday - which is associated with surface low moving N of the UK. Looks pretty complex on FAX output given that the frontal system is associated with the short-wave SW of the UK.

GFS does model some instability along and near to the cold front for both Friday and Saturday, the latter looking the better of the two, as warm, moist air is destabilised by approaching front. If there is good cloud breaks and sufficient insolation during either of the two storm risk days, then given the highly sheared environment, there's a reasonable chance of thunderstorms developing and becoming severe. At the moment the limiting factors look to be the amount of instability, lack of any real dry air instrusion (although GFS does model this to some extent) and good cold pool aloft. Forcing from the cold front and sufficient insolation would be, I think, enough to get some storms going. Then you have factors conducive for storms to turn severe.

By trough I refer to the black line on the MetO pressure chart, which is anticipated (at present) to precede the CF. If this comes to fruition, this IMO stands a greater chance of producing some thundery activity as opposed to the front itself.

[SteveElbows]

A little bit of electrical activity now being detected somewhere in the uk at the moment according to one or two tracking sites. I dont trust the accuracy of these things too much in terms of location, but looks like its just to the south of ireland and/or between wales and the south west. Any ideas?

Edited August 19, 2010 by SteveElbows

[SteveElbows]

More and more activity showing up but no humans to verify whats happening at the moment it seems.

Edited August 19, 2010 by SteveElbows

[Evening thunder]

Certainly seems to be something moving into SW Ireland.

last 24 hours lightning

last 7 days lightning

Edited August 19, 2010 by StormMad26

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Nice forecast Nick, not often we get a slight risk up here in the North East.

People seem to think NE England has done very well lately, but way up here in County Durham and Tyne and Wear most of us have had very little this year.

I'm hoping tomorrow changes that, I'll be on the lookout from my new desk at work which has a great view.

[Guest FireStorm]

Tornado watch out from TORRO

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

Eire

N Ireland

S Scotland

Isle of Man

[Lewis]

Morning guys,

Ain't been online much, just decided to come on for a bit and read some posts. IMHO you can forget thunderstorms tomorrow other than the odd thundery downpour accross NW isles, and the centran belt of N England. Tornados? lol, I very much doubt it, just enjoy the heavy rain, gardens need it

For those of you that are yet to have any decent thunderstorms, wait until september particually the 7th onwards.