The North Atlantic Current Is Gone

[phaywarduk]

Great catch CH. For a minuite there I was really worried.

Gratefully yours,

Paul

[weather eater]

I love this thread, I’m amazed that its still going. On the back of some web reports, about the research of some, maybe real, maybe not, Russian and Polish scientists, and some satellite pictures that may well not be telling the whole story. Surely if there was a real issue with the NAC the story would be everywhere. Hang on don’t tell me there’s a great big conspiracy to keep things quiet because we don’t want to spread panic. Still don’t mind me cause its great fun anyway, and I guess there’s always an outside chance if only a very small one.

[Paceyboy]

This is todays 200m depth gulf stream velocity.

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

Now we were saying hmmmm, theres not much change in the velocity of this depth or its alot quicker than surface and more consistent etc.

Has anyone actually noticed, ive just noticed, that the red colours are only 1m/s velocity. The key is different to speed of surface flow(or 0m on the options which is what weve been looking at and quoting the last month)

So thats slow too? What do others think?

Edited October 11, 2010 by Paceyboy

[johncoolj]

Great catch CH. For a minuite there I was really worried.

Gratefully yours,

Paul

theres no doubt its not reaching the uk like it was this time last year

[weather eater]

This is todays 200m depth gulf stream velocity.

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

Now we were saying hmmmm, theres not much change in the velocity of this depth or its alot quicker than surface and more consistent etc.

Has anyone actually noticed, ive just noticed, that the red colours are only 1m/s velocity. The key is different to speed of surface flow(or 0m on the options which is what weve been looking at and quoting the last month)

So thats slow too? What do others think?

Relative to what, do you have some old animation from say 10 or twenty years a go to match it against, without data to match it against, how do we know its slower or stopped etc. other than the word of the Russian and Polish scientists, if indeed they are scientists.

[bobbydog]

This is todays 200m depth gulf stream velocity.

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

Now we were saying hmmmm, theres not much change in the velocity of this depth or its alot quicker than surface and more consistent etc.

Has anyone actually noticed, ive just noticed, that the red colours are only 1m/s velocity. The key is different to speed of surface flow(or 0m on the options which is what weve been looking at and quoting the last month)

So thats slow too? What do others think?

this has been mentioned before- it is slower and more consistent at 200m therefore shows up on the charts more. i look at all the depths, velocity and temps, 0m down to around 500m as these are the most relevant. 0m probably being most important

[osmposm]

i agree that our climate could never be the same as russia or canada as our weather is heavily maritime influenced. however, if the stopping/slowing NAD scenario were to unfold, would our climate not become more similar to iceland?

Why would our climate become similar to Iceland's - even assuming all wind direction/oceanic influences were evened out? Great Britain lies between about 50 and 58 1/2^oN. Iceland lies between around 64 and 66^oN, and the Arctic Circle passes through its northern tip. The southernmost part of Iceland is over 400 miles north of the most northerly part of Great Britain. Or maybe you mean that our climate in a theoretical future without the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift could become similar to Iceland's today with the Gulf Stream/NAD? Yes, I suppose that's perhaps the order of possible change - coastal, southern Reykjavík's mid-winter mean temp range is around -3C/+2C (Iceland is also warmed by the NAD), while Aberdeen's winter mean range is about 0C/+6C.

In my opinion our winter months will experience change. I don't think it will be a full scale shift. Iceland can be warmer than us in the summer months so it cannot be compared to anythin as this is a unique situation.

Iceland can be warmer than parts of GB in summer, but not very often. Reykjavík's high-summer mean maximum is around 13C - even Aberdeen is well above that, with a summer mean maximum of 18C.

The trouble with all these attempted scenarios is that, NAD or no NAD, we are at the eastern edge of a large ocean that will always be warmer in winter than the continental landmass. And even if there were to be hypothetical changes to the Jet Stream, I cannot see the prevailing winds altering that fundamentally. At these latitudes of ours they are basically westerly all over the world - a result of the earth's rotation - and westerly winds blowing over the milder ocean will most probably continue to bring us milder air, albeit with (possibly) less modification. The place to look at for comparisons, therefore, would still appear to be British Columbia at similar latitudes on the west coast of Canada.

PS I had always understood that the NAD was largely a wind-driven surface current. Is it really very likely that it will grind to a halt?

[NorthernRab]

Why would our climate become similar to Iceland's - even assuming all wind direction/oceanic influences were evened out? Great Britain lies between about 50 and 58 1/2^oN. Iceland lies between around 64 and 66^oN, and the Arctic Circle passes through its northern tip. The southernmost part of Iceland is over 400 miles north of the most northerly part of Great Britain. Or maybe you mean that our climate in a theoretical future without the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift could become similar to Iceland's today with the Gulf Stream/NAD? Yes, I suppose that's perhaps the order of possible change - coastal, southern Reykjavík's mid-winter mean temp range is around -3C/+2C (Iceland is also warmed by the NAD), while Aberdeen's winter mean range is about 0C/+6C.

Iceland can be warmer than parts of GB in summer, but not very often. Reykjavík's high-summer mean maximum is around 13C - even Aberdeen is well above that, with a summer mean maximum of 18C.

The trouble with all these attempted scenarios is that, NAD or no NAD, we are at the eastern edge of a large ocean that will always be warmer in winter than the continental landmass. And even if there were to be hypothetical changes to the Jet Stream, I cannot see the prevailing winds altering that fundamentally. At these latitudes of ours they are basically westerly all over the world - a result of the earth's rotation - and westerly winds blowing over the milder ocean will most probably continue to bring us milder air, albeit with (possibly) less modification. The place to look at for comparisons, therefore, would still appear to be British Columbia at similar latitudes on the west coast of Canada.

PS I had always understood that the NAD was largely a wind-driven surface current. Is it really very likely that it will grind to a halt?

Surely though if the NAO was to disappear, high pressure systems would have more influence over the UK, thus further depleting the influence of the remaining westerly winds? A moderate westerly wind is all very well, but somewhere like say the central Highlands which often feels the effects of Atlantic low pressure systems (the Scottish Western Highlands are arguably second only to Eilean Siar / Hebrides in terms of Atlantic activity on the mainland UK) would surely experience a fairy considerable drop in temperature? I remember reading some theoretical scenarios with regards to a loss of the NAO, and northern Scotland and western Norway were argued to experience the most serious of drops in temperature, with the rest of the UK still being quite considerably effected. End of the Western world, probably not on the face of it (although as this is surely a new climate we are discussing who knows what other factors would come into play), but in either case we really don't want anything like this to happen partly because so much of the UK's large green energy potential would disappear into nothingness.

[Essan]

PS I had always understood that the NAD was largely a wind-driven surface current. Is it really very likely that it will grind to a halt?

Yes, I think the surface current might - and possibly has on many occasions - when there is persistent high pressure over the Atlantic and thus litte or no surface wind to drive it. Negative NAO. As we've been seeing of late (hence it appears weaker than when there's a positive NAO)

Trouble is, people are comparing 2 points in time, when they should be comparing the current charts with all of those over the last 10 or 20 years. Hence amateurs are jumping to conclusion not reached by those who study the current every day.

[bobbydog]

Why would our climate become similar to Iceland's - even assuming all wind direction/oceanic influences were evened out? Great Britain lies between about 50 and 58 1/2^oN. Iceland lies between around 64 and 66^oN, and the Arctic Circle passes through its northern tip. The southernmost part of Iceland is over 400 miles north of the most northerly part of Great Britain. Or maybe you mean that our climate in a theoretical future without the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift could become similar to Iceland's today with the Gulf Stream/NAD? Yes, I suppose that's perhaps the order of possible change - coastal, southern Reykjavík's mid-winter mean temp range is around -3C/+2C (Iceland is also warmed by the NAD), while Aberdeen's winter mean range is about 0C/+6C.

sorry, i should have clarified that, yes i did mean similar to iceland as it is today and it was only a rough comparison

[RichardR]

Time somebody said it: the whole notion being purported in this thread, in its entirety, is a silly old load of tommy-rot.

Edited October 12, 2010 by RichardR

[bobbydog]

Trouble is, people are comparing 2 points in time, when they should be comparing the current charts with all of those over the last 10 or 20 years. Hence amateurs are jumping to conclusion not reached by those who study the current every day.

we dont have access to charts from the last 10 or 20 years and i dont see anyone claiming to be a professional

[weather eater]

tommy-rot.

Blimey haven’t heard anybody use that expression for a long time. you're never a young person Richard. Mind you I think it might be a correct call.

[stewfox]

Time somebody said it: the whole notion being purported in this thread, in its entirety, is a silly old load of tommy-rot.

So what happen after 2005 , its started upagain ?

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn8398-failing-ocean-current-raises-fears-of-mini-ice-age.html

[johncoolj]

So what happen after 2005 , its started upagain ?

http://www.newscient...ni-ice-age.html

Nope dont think it did it has been getting weaker since the 90s in 2005 was weak then too just seems to be even worse now since around last dec

i think it has to do with sunspots.

I would say it will stay weak till the sunspots come back again strong

around the year 2030

mind you thats only what i think im no expert and im sure many here will not agree with what iv just said

I bought this book you should buy it its good

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Frozen-Britain-Gavin-Cooke/dp/1844549895

[bedlington83]

we dont have access to charts from the last 10 or 20 years

Charts here go back 18 years. From a very cursory examination of random samples there does seem to be an argument for a slight weakening (over the whole 18 years) but nothing as dramatic as suggested by the NOAA charts today and last year

[bobbydog]

Charts here go back 18 years. From a very cursory examination of random samples there does seem to be an argument for a slight weakening (over the whole 18 years) but nothing as dramatic as suggested by the NOAA charts today and last year

nice find! shame they only go up to jan of this year and show slightly different velocity scales, so we still cant accurately compare current data. still worth studying though!

[phaywarduk]

Hi Richard,

Tommy-rot in the internet context is positively polite. Do you have specific reasons for believing this or is it a 'gut feeling' so to speak?

Regards,

Paul

Edited October 12, 2010 by phaywarduk

[RichardR]

Hi Richard,

Tommy-rot in the internet context is positively polite. Do you have specific reasons for believing this or is it a 'gut feeling' so to speak?

Regards,

Paul

Firstly I'd like to see the proper "Scientific Reasons" behind all the speculation on this thread about nonsense like the North Atlantic Current going anywhere, the jetstream staying permanently south giving the UK a "continental climate" and all that first.

All I can say is, everything in all the links I've read about this reads like pure unsubstantiated twaddle, and I have a very good BS detector a.k.a "Intuition" that this garbage is best ignored.

This whole pretense that due to whether it be a very rapid change in "Ocean Surface Currents" in a couple years, or whatever else, is suddenly going to cause a dramatic shift in our climate after thousands of years, well sorry but it is BS at best)

Edited October 12, 2010 by shuggee
Edited out unnecessary personal crap

[phaywarduk]

The earlier 2005 view of a weakening NAD was challenged by later data that showed the current has an uneven flow over time. They concluded the current was as strong as ever and showed no sustained sign of slowing. This is another reason why caution is so important. This whole thing begun with a report from the Deagle research team that included one Dr Guanluigi Zangari and it has been suggested that he mistook the break away loop current in the gulf as a new phenomena whereas it happens fairly regularly. There is pelnty of room for doubt and we need more hard evidince really.

Regards,

Paul

[Skyhi]

personally, even a complete novice like me, wouldnt ignore some of the findings reported by 'New Scientist' etc, and the links that I have folowed on here. They all make very interesting and informative reading. To completely disregard them all as complete 'BS' , 'Twaddle' , or whatever else you care to label it as, is just as ignorant. The gulf stream 'has' either slowed or 'stopped' according to findings, and that cannot be ignored because it will have an impact on weather patterns in many parts of the world, in fact, in the states, they have recorded a hailstorm with hailstones the biggest they have ever recorded.......coincidence...NOT!.

[Paceyboy]

Firstly I'd like to see the proper "Scientific Reasons" behind all the speculation on this thread about nonsense like the North Atlantic Current going anywhere, the jetstream staying permanently south giving the UK a "continental climate" and all that first.

All I can say is, everything in all the links I've read about this reads like pure unsubstantiated twaddle, and I have a very good BS detector a.k.a "Intuition" that this garbage is best ignored.

This whole pretense that due to whether it be a very rapid change in "Ocean Surface Currents" in a couple years, or whatever else, is suddenly going to cause a dramatic shift in our climate after thousands of years, well sorry but it is BS at best.

Whilst I tend to agree with you in the whole 'jumping to conclusions too quickly ' madness and others most probably do also, it doesnt hurt to analyse and discuss. Why dont we just take every scientific theory for granted and not discuss. I mean why are we even discussing weather on this forum because we always know what thats going to do and what can and ultimately CANT happen. Lets get rid of weather forums altogether!

I think not. Im obviously being sarcastic. This new emerging find or speculation all maybe OTT but its interesting all the same. If you feel completely comfortable with everything meteorological thats fine, apparently you can predict the future and dismiss every theory that challenges present goings-on.

Edited October 12, 2010 by shuggee
Removed previously edited bit of the quoted post

[Skyhi]

I completely agree, it is in our best interest to at least 'listen' and 'read' as much data as we feel comfortable with. If we ignore it, or dismiss any of the findings, research both past and present, would only leave ourselves in a position that we might not want to be in. Best to be forewarned and forearmed, then to be regretfull if the unthinkable should happen this winter.

[roys]

talking of gut feelings something wicked comes this way

[BornFromTheVoid]

This whole pretense that due to whether it be a very rapid change in "Ocean Surface Currents" in a couple years, or whatever else, is suddenly going to cause a dramatic shift in our climate after thousands of years, well sorry but it is BS at best, and lorded over/speculated upon excitedly by only the most ignorant and gullible around (of which there are plenty of examples on this forum).

While I don't agree that we're currently in any immediate danger of having the NAD shut down, it can and at some point will most likely shut down suddenly as it has done before. If it did, we would most certainly notice a sudden change in our climate/weather.

You only have to look at the "Younger Dryas" as evidence that it can happen!