The North Atlantic Current Is Gone

[blitzen]

I reckon all this hype about the north atlantic current "going", (which it won't) is just being perpetuated by those with a bias and predisposition toward cold and winter, this is basically the new playground of the "cold rampers" if you will. Just an observation.

Oh trust you to take that stance! Give people some credit for goodness sake! What about the effect that this could have on flora & fauna, the type of crops we could no longer grow, health issues, energy/utility issues, infrastructure issues. I consider these things far more important than if it is going to snow on Christmas Day! It is my country and I live here and I care about what happens to it! If there is a chance that any of these things could possibly be threatened, then of course I am interested in anything and everything pertaining to it. Rather than be ridiculed by someone who professes to know all the answers! The things that I have mentioned are of course extreme, but who is to say that over a period of a few years if the weakening continues, that these are indeed the scenarios that we may have to deal with. If you don't speculate then you can't accumulate. Your "Scientific Reasons" will no doubt surface in due course if a problem is identified.

Edited October 13, 2010 by Blitzen

[PeteG]

I think some people on here are confusing the Gulf Stream with the the Gulf Stream Drift/North Atlantic drift.

As far as I know the Gulf Stream is the result of the NE and SE Trade Winds in the equatorial region pushing the surface water into the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico along the S American coast. This water has to go somewhere and escapes from the GoM between Florida and Cuba forming the Gulf Stream. This is unlikely to fail while the Trade Winds continue to blow although it could be interesting to speculate what might happen if sea level rises and large parts Florida are submerged.

Once in the Atlantic the Gulf Stream dissipates and becomes the "Drift" which I imagine is influenced by the prevailing winds and other ocean currents. I seem to recall from my O Level geography days in the 1960's that in the Ice Age the Gulf Stream Drift went towards Spain but I don't recall seeing any evidence to support that although it seems a logical conclusion that it certainly didn't come this way.

[blitzen]

Because the real story isn't what people want to hear

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8589512.stm

Simple fact is that scientists look at long term trends, internet conspiracy-mongers leap to false conclusions based on misunderstanding of short term variability.

Wouldn't all long term trends start out as short term variabilities? Trends have to start somewhere.

[weather eater]

<br /><br /><br />

Hi Essan,

It is the short term variablity that could give us a cold winter. See my post above on statistical manipulation/ handling of data. I am a graduate scientist in environmental science, I know a little in how science and the scientific experimental process works. The problem they have right now is with having a set of results that is significant either way, until then there hands are tied thats why they are claiming short term variablity because that is all they can measure.

Or it could be that their hands are not tied and that they are absolutely sure that what has occurred is just down to short term variability.

Plenty of people on this thread may feel that the results are not significant either way and its a, case of we are unsure so we better ere on the side of caution before setting the alarm bells off, but that does not mean that the climate science community feel that this is the case. Now I think its far more likely to be the case, that the scientists really don’t feel there is any danger of a shutdown and that’s the real reason why members of that community are not offering any support for the shutdown argument. We are not even seeing the odd rogue scientist come out in support of the shutdown argument.

By the way beautiful part of the world you live in.

[Methuselah]

<br /><br /><br />

Hi Essan,

Im not sure how this topic has managed to wonder into the realms of ice ages, long term climate change etc, having had a look through it has gotten a bit lost.

It is the short term variablity that could give us a cold winter. See my post above on statistical manipulation/ handling of data. I am a graduate scientist in environmental science, I know a little in how science and the scientific experimental process works. The problem they have right now is with having a set of results that is significant either way, until then there hands are tied thats why they are claiming short term variablity because that is all they can measure. All the study highlights is the limitations of our knowledge and understanding of a system that is full of negative feedback mechanisms from the lithosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere.

A slowing down of the gulfstream is like everything else just because you cant see it happening doesnt mean to say that it isnt happening.

All very true, LOTS. But, I do hope that the NAD doesn't suddenly become 'gone'...

[Ladyofthestorm]

Thank you weather eater for the compliment. I am very very lucky and privaledged to live in such a wonderful place. It is like a romantic movie my life! lol

Pete I hope not either, I want a nice garden once the new house is finished!

Short term variablity can have massive repurcussions on our weather, that is my concern, not the next ice age, more this winter. They used the term not significant in there report which makes me think the data was basically incomplete which reduces reliabilty (not enough of it) or is subject to errors which dcreases accuracy.

I dont think for one moment it has shut down, not even during the last ice age did it do so. A migration to sunny climates was a possibilty then.However, I do think that oceanic current is slowing down, you have to agree our weather is in the least more continental and less atlantic dominated and all Im waiting on is the data to filter back and mark my words it will do.

[MR EXTREMES]

Or it could be that their hands are not tied and that they are absolutely sure that what has occurred is just down to short term variability.

Plenty of people on this thread may feel that the results are not significant either way and its a, case of we are unsure so we better ere on the side of caution before setting the alarm bells off, but that does not mean that the climate science community feel that this is the case. Now I think its far more likely to be the case, that the scientists really don’t feel there is any danger of a shutdown and that’s the real reason why members of that community are not offering any support for the shutdown argument. We are not even seeing the odd rogue scientist come out in support of the shutdown argument.

By the way beautiful part of the world you live in.

yes,

but the point is it has been weakening and there is evidence of this all over the net!

point is from there opion it could be short term variability but its clearly weakened and as i read it weakened 30% several years ago,

now if this is a slow trend into more weakening then when you start to hit 50% then you start to take off a 1c if not more drop for the northern hemisphere,

the impact of a 1c drop would not plunge us into an ice age but would ensure winters would be colder + solar minimum and neg pdo who knows where we go with this situation.

but im sure yes if it were serious which its not YET!

then the likes of people like joe b and scientists and media would jump on this!

but i said yet because how long has the drift been this weak and how long could it continue like this?

i can give an 100% answer to my own question nobody knows.

but clearly it is showing weak flow.

Edited October 13, 2010 by badboy657

[knocker]

I think some people on here are confusing the Gulf Stream with the the Gulf Stream Drift/North Atlantic drift.

As far as I know the Gulf Stream is the result of the NE and SE Trade Winds in the equatorial region pushing the surface water into the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico along the S American coast. This water has to go somewhere and escapes from the GoM between Florida and Cuba forming the Gulf Stream. This is unlikely to fail while the Trade Winds continue to blow although it could be interesting to speculate what might happen if sea level rises and large parts Florida are submerged.

Once in the Atlantic the Gulf Stream dissipates and becomes the "Drift" which I imagine is influenced by the prevailing winds and other ocean currents. I seem to recall from my O Level geography days in the 1960's that in the Ice Age the Gulf Stream Drift went towards Spain but I don't recall seeing any evidence to support that although it seems a logical conclusion that it certainly didn't come this way.

I can agree with most of that but just to add a little.

With the trade winds blowing westward across the oceans in tropical latitudes and prevailing westerlies blowing eastward at higher latitudes, it is understandable why the current gyres should form the dominant surface current pattern in the low and midlatitudes. What isn’t so obvious, however, is the reason why these currents should be so swift and narrow along the oceans’ western boundaries. What could possibly cause this western intensification of surface currents?

The Gulf Stream is just one of these swift narrow western boundary currents. A look at the diagram shows that there are similar intensified boundary currents along the western edges of all oceans, in both hemispheres. From considerations of the winds alone, you should think that each current could be half an ocean wide. But they are not, so are why they are so swift and narrow, and why do they occur on the western ocean margins only.

There are three related processes that contribute to the creation of strong narrow western boundary currents, all of which are products of the Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation. The first cause is that when an equatorial surface current runs into the continent on the ocean’s western margin, it “squirts out the sides, just like water in a stream that strikes a rock, or water from a garden hose that strikes the side of a building.

Second, the Coriolis deflection is stronger in the portion of the gyres at higher latitudes, where these eastward-flowing waters are deflected toward the equator. This pinches the equatorial currents and tends to prevent them from leaving the equator until they reach the very western end.

The fact that the strength of the Coriolis deflection increases at higher latitudes produces another related effect. When this water is flowing east, it gets deflected quickly toward the equator, whereas when it is flowing west, it is very close to the equator and gets deflected only very weakly. Consequently, the water tends to flow farther to the west than toward the east in any complete cycle, and the gyre tends to move westward across the ocean each time the water flows around it. This westward tendency forces the gyre up against the western margins where the currents are correspondingly compressed and intensified.

The third cause of the intensified western boundary currents is also related to the earth’s rotation, through the apparent change in the rotational state of objects moving north or south along the Earth’s surface.

A mass of water starting on the equator with no spin at all appears to acquire a spin as it goes. The farther poleward it goes, the faster it appears to spin. At intermediate latitudes, this amount of spin is less than one complete revolution per day. But if the water mass is wide, it doesn’t have to spin very rapidly for the outer regions to have high speeds. For example, a water mass 1000 kilometers wide and spinning only half a revolution per day would have to move at 65 kilometers per hour on its outer boundary!

Because of the dominant wind-induced current gyres, surface waters in the western portions of all oceans are traveling away from the equator. As these water masses go toward the pole, they acquire the appropriate spin (clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and counter clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere) to make the current on the very western edge extremely swift.

Taking all of that into account I suspect although the GS may well vary in intensity over periods it is certainly not a cause for alarm. The NAC is another kettle of fish. The flow is weaker anyway and if the atmospheric western circulation in those latitudes suffered sustained spells of disruption then possibly this and the coriolis could severely slow it down. But this is just a guess.

Large scale surface currents. (Source: Keith Stowe-Exploring Ocean Science)

Edited October 13, 2010 by weather ship

[MR EXTREMES]

Thank you weather eater for the compliment. I am very very lucky and privaledged to live in such a wonderful place. It is like a romantic movie my life! lol

Pete I hope not either, I want a nice garden once the new house is finished!

Short term variablity can have massive repurcussions on our weather, that is my concern, not the next ice age, more this winter. They used the term not significant in there report which makes me think the data was basically incomplete which reduces reliabilty (not enough of it) or is subject to errors which dcreases accuracy.

I dont think for one moment it has shut down, not even during the last ice age did it do so. A migration to sunny climates was a possibilty then.However, I do think that oceanic current is slowing down, you have to agree our weather is in the least more continental and less atlantic dominated and all Im waiting on is the data to filter back and mark my words it will do.

cant argue with this post makes perfect sense to me.

[blitzen]

Or it could be that their hands are not tied and that they are absolutely sure that what has occurred is just down to short term variability.

Plenty of people on this thread may feel that the results are not significant either way and its a, case of we are unsure so we better ere on the side of caution before setting the alarm bells off, but that does not mean that the climate science community feel that this is the case. Now I think its far more likely to be the case, that the scientists really don’t feel there is any danger of a shutdown and that’s the real reason why members of that community are not offering any support for the shutdown argument. We are not even seeing the odd rogue scientist come out in support of the shutdown argument.

By the way beautiful part of the world you live in.

Hi WE. We are not seeing many of the 30,000 rogue scientists against AGW in the USA coming out in support of their theory either, for fear of being marginalised or fired. Perhaps it could be political, financial or your view is the correct one, who knows. But for the reasons I mentioned above, I think it is best to be open minded and at least aware until proven wrong. Make no mistake, I hope we are. How's that for sitting on the fence?

[Essan]

It is the short term variablity that could give us a cold winter.

I agree. Short term variability could well give us a cold winter and I think the perceived decline in the surface flow of the GS/NAD is a consequence of this short term variability.

A slowing down of the gulfstream is like everything else just because you cant see it happening doesnt mean to say that it isnt happening.

Then again, just because someone said on an internet forum that it is slowing down does not actually mean it is slowing down :winky: Or indeed, that even if it is it means anything whatsoever. Unless you're rowing a boat from Canada to Britain in which case it may make your journey a bit longer :lol:

However, we can perhaps make a prediction? If warmer waters carried to Britain and Norway by the NAD are no longer getting here, or not as warm, then we might expect to see more southerly ice cover between Greenland and Norway this winter.

[weather eater]

yes,

but the point is it has been weakening and there is evidence of this all over the net!

point is from there opion it could be short term variability but its clearly weakened and as i read it weakened 30% several years ago,

now if this is a slow trend into more weakening then when you start to hit 50% then you start to take off a 1c if not more drop for the northern hemisphere,

the impact of a 1c drop would not plunge us into an ice age but would ensure winters would be colder + solar minimum and neg pdo who knows where we go with this situation.

but im sure yes if it were serious which its not YET!

then the likes of people like joe b and scientists and media would jump on this!

but i said yet because how long has the drift been this weak and how long could it continue like this?

i can give an 100% answer to my own question nobody knows.

but clearly it is showing weak flow.

There also evidence all over the net of, aliens, ghosts, mad conspiracies, Jesus appearing in or on just about anything, from marmite to car bonnets, just because an idea becomes popular doesn’t mean its a fact. The internet is notorious for spreading falsities.

[blitzen]

There also evidence all over the net of, aliens, ghosts, mad conspiracies, Jesus appearing in or on just about anything, from marmite to car bonnets, just because an idea becomes popular doesn’t mean its a fact. The internet is notorious for spreading falsities.

:lol: fifteen - love!

I was so busy laughing about the marmite and the car bonnets that I got the original score the wrong way round!

Edited October 13, 2010 by Blitzen

[MR EXTREMES]

There also evidence all over the net of, aliens, ghosts, mad conspiracies, Jesus appearing in or on just about anything, from marmite to car bonnets, just because an idea becomes popular doesn’t mean its a fact. The internet is notorious for spreading falsities.

well the 30% decrease was a study but then again a counter claims always will appear as this is why nobody wants to take anything seriously.

but the point is can anyone prove there are not ghosts or aliens the jesus bit yeah i agree but not everything on the net is rubbish.

just because it dont suit a persons point of view i dont think it should be rubbished.

so do i listen to or rubbish the first post on this thread or do i rubbish the data people have took time to post after all these have come from nasa but then look how they handled the current solar minimum,

but after they moved the goal posts a few times they got it right.

so my point is if they can get that wrong then whos to say that this tread topic is wrong its down to each person to come to there idears every human has different idears.

mine is anything is possible.

Edited October 13, 2010 by badboy657

[weather eater]

Hi WE. We are not seeing many of the 30,000 rogue scientists against AGW in the USA coming out in support of their theory either, for fear of being marginalised or fired. Perhaps it could be political, financial or your view is the correct one, who knows. But for the reasons I mentioned above, I think it is best to be open minded and at least aware until proven wrong. Make no mistake, I hope we are. How's that for sitting on the fence?

Hi Blitzen, I’m not saying that there is absolutely no chance that this is happening, but I think it highly unlikely that all those people are keeping their mouths shut for the reasons you have stated. After all how mega smart are the individuals who dare to present this as scientific fact going to look, when their observations are proven correct.

Being open minded is one thing and I'm not so closed to the idea that I think its impossible. However its one thing being open minded and its another to being so open minded that your brains dribble out of your ear. I do fear that maybe one or two on this thread are letting that happen (not yourself I hasten to add). It seems for some to be a case of, I want it to be true, so it must be true. Still as I said earlier its doing no harm and it does throw up some interesting facts and figures as well as having a good chat with some nice people.

[weather eater]

well the 30% decrease was a study but then again a counter claims always will appear as this is why nobody wants to take anything seriously.

but the point is can anyone prove there are not ghosts or aliens the jesus bit yeah i agree but not everything on the net is rubbish.

just because it dont suit a persons point of view i dont think it should be rubbished.

mine is anything is possible.

That’s an old argument, I can't prove it to be false therefore it must have some validity. It something important is happening that the wider world is not aware of, and it is of such importance, that its crucial for that wider world to know (as in this case), then its down to those that can see what is occurring to show evidence to prove their case.

[phil nw.]

This thread has certainly took off in the last couple of days but in a good way--some good posts folks.

I can`t really conclude anything on this subject based on current information but never the less it`s an interesting debate.

I have found this link which seems to sum up current information from both points of view --

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation

i apologise in advance if this has been posted before but i guess it does no harm to show it anyway for any newcomers to this thread.

It`s clear that more information is needed over a longer time period before any concrete views can be supported by facts.

[blitzen]

I thought that this chart was interesting. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-temp-500-small-rundate=latest You would think that there would be a temperature trail (up past your house :lol: ) where the NAD is supposed to meander? As someone else commented last week, this is perhaps a normal chart as there are no archives for camparison. I checked as far back as the middle of July (couldn't go back any further) and the temperature was slightly more spread out and a little further north. I suppose in July SSTs would have been higher anyway. Any ideas LOTS?

Hi Blitzen, I’m not saying that there is absolutely no chance that this is happening, but I think it highly unlikely that all those people are keeping their mouths shut for the reasons you have stated.

Sorry WE, my post was misleading. The reasons I was referring to were those in my other post re danger to crops, energy, infrastructure etc. if there was a breakdown.

Edited October 13, 2010 by Blitzen

[Ladyofthestorm]

SST in this part of the world are down from last yer, suggesting that the NAD has failed to warm our waters.

However the opposite has happened in Southern England which are up... again because there has been little mixing of the cooler water with warmer water, allowing less dence warm water to ride on the surface.

Weather Eater Richard and Blitzen its great chatting to you all too! Keeps my mummy brain ticking over nicely!

[Essan]

Hi Blitzen, I’m not saying that there is absolutely no chance that this is happening, but I think it highly unlikely that all those people are keeping their mouths shut for the reasons you have stated. After all how mega smart are the individuals who dare to present this as scientific fact going to look, when their observations are proven correct.

I think the main reason is that they're not climate scientists and despite being scientist in other diciplines probably know far less about the subject than many on Net-wx do and get most of their info on climate change from the media.

Just because someone is a scientots doesn't mean he's right about everything. Just ask Einstein!

[eyeofthestorm]

Quite a large cold sst anomaly appearing over the Atlantic right over where the Gulf Stream breaks up, heat is leaving the ocean fast. As for the UK sst, there is conflicting data. For Example Netweather Extra data is showing Skye and Blackpool at between 7.9 and 8.0c, well below normal, but the NOAA model is showing us around normal.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.10.11.2010.gif

[Essan]

SST in this part of the world are down from last yer, suggesting that the NAD has failed to warm our waters.

However the opposite has happened in Southern England which are up... again because there has been little mixing of the cooler water with warmer water, allowing less dence warm water to ride on the surface.

Which I think is due to synoptics and a casue, not effect, if the perceived decline in the GS/NAD

Weather Eater Richard and Blitzen its great chatting to you all too! Keeps my mummy brain ticking over nicely!

For some reason I've now got this impression of you as a jolly, rosy cheeked, wifie, feeding the kids whilst your husband's out on the hill or in a boat fishing Probably far from the truth, but I like it

(that's the Talisker in those glasses btw )

Edited October 13, 2010 by Essan

[Ladyofthestorm]

Which I think is due to synoptics and a casue, not effect, if the perceived decline in the GS/NAD

For some reason I've now got this impression of you as a jolly, rosy cheeked, wifie, feeding the kids whilst your husband's out on the hill or in a boat fishing Probably far from the truth, but I like it

(that's the Talisker in those glasses btw )

I do hope you are right there or else my hubbys wind turbine will never move again and my vegetables and fruit will never grow! Lol Im not too rosey cheeked unless Im out battling to get the hens in or the washing out! Yers feeding children is my main occupation. I have two 8 month old twins and 2 older girls, oh and half the neighbourhoods kids around for tea every night! Im afraid thats where the Highland lass image disappears. lol. Ive mixed concrete, landscapes the garden, plastered the walls and chop wood with a very large axe as my favourite man hobbies. Hubby isnt a fishing shooting type. Though we like our walking together, as well as star gazing and aurora watching from our bedroom window!

Oh and Im jolly until I get PMT then its grrrrrrr:good:

I do like this thread..it has been an excellent debate with cyber friends

Eyeofthestorm... fanastic image there. Look at the area of cooling just where the NAD should be. And look at that massive la nina in the pacific...

Maybe a teeny weeny wee bit to much of the olde talkisker in there?

My favourite drink is actually Drambuie

[weather eater]

I think the main reason is that they're not climate scientists and despite being scientist in other diciplines probably know far less about the subject than many on Net-wx do and get most of their info on climate change from the media.

Just because someone is a scientots doesn't mean he's right about everything. Just ask Einstein!

Hi Essen, bit of wire crossing I think. I was just referring to climate Scientists and a few others who are involved in this field, like oceanographers, not just any passing biochemist or geologist who takes an interest.

Edited October 13, 2010 by weather eater

[Ladyofthestorm]

, bit of wire crossing I think.

good job we arent electronic engineers then?

So what kind of scientist am I then if I studied all of the disciplines in environmental science specialising in quaternary environmental change.