The North Atlantic Current Is Gone

[roys]

acording to ice core evidence tis can hapen in as short a period as two to three years

[Skyhi]

acording to ice core evidence tis can hapen in as short a period as two to three years

That's staggering, and a bit scary to be honest.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Blitzen, fantastic chart of atlantic flow rates.... or lack of BTW

We could have a game of spot the gulfstream and none of us would win!

Rapid onset of significant cooler periods is possible given the evidence that exsists if you are able to trawl through it. If you take a look at pollen and sediment anaylsis it can point to quite significant rates of cooling.... and at the end warming again.

However we have a whole forum to discuss stuff to do with the past ice ages.

Think of ot this wat if ENSO events can have a massive impact on the planets climate, why cant a breakdown of the gulfstream cause a cooling? If it isnt there, it cant keep us warm... SST around the north west coast of Scotland are down on what happened last summer.

What is pending is a definite slow down of the gulfstream, you cannot deny it, as it is plain to see from Blitzens post.

The question that we should all be discussing is why the slowdown?

[bobbydog]

Firstly I'd like to see the proper "Scientific Reasons" behind all the speculation on this thread about nonsense like the North Atlantic Current going anywhere, the jetstream staying permanently south giving the UK a "continental climate" and all that first.

All I can say is, everything in all the links I've read about this reads like pure unsubstantiated twaddle, and I have a very good BS detector a.k.a "Intuition" that this garbage is best ignored.

This whole pretense that due to whether it be a very rapid change in "Ocean Surface Currents" in a couple years, or whatever else, is suddenly going to cause a dramatic shift in our climate after thousands of years, well sorry but it is BS at best)

ok, so give us some substantiated, NON- twaddle as to why this is all BS. IF you are going to pour scorn on other peoples opinions, at least give us your scientific reasoning as to why. or are you one of those people who refuse to believe anything until it stands up and punches them in the face!

[johncoolj]

Blitzen, fantastic chart of atlantic flow rates.... or lack of BTW

We could have a game of spot the gulfstream and none of us would win!

Rapid onset of significant cooler periods is possible given the evidence that exsists if you are able to trawl through it. If you take a look at pollen and sediment anaylsis it can point to quite significant rates of cooling.... and at the end warming again.

However we have a whole forum to discuss stuff to do with the past ice ages.

Think of ot this wat if ENSO events can have a massive impact on the planets climate, why cant a breakdown of the gulfstream cause a cooling? If it isnt there, it cant keep us warm... SST around the north west coast of Scotland are down on what happened last summer.

What is pending is a definite slow down of the gulfstream, you cannot deny it, as it is plain to see from Blitzens post.

The question that we should all be discussing is why the slowdown?

I think the lack of sunpots maybe part of the cause of the slowdown in gulfstream

what id like to know is if it has slowed which i think it has how will i effect the uk and ireland or will it at all could last winter be a sign of things to come

[cyclonic happiness]

I hope the damn thing does shut down, I'm ordering some ice skates this month to go skating on the cut like my gran used to.

I know it will cause alot of hassle, but for every cloud........

Edited October 12, 2010 by cyclonic happiness

[eyeofthestorm]

http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j270/JohnnyGunn/NOAAAtlCurr20090820.png

A reminder of what things look like last year from a post earlier in the thread. There is clearly a massive difference.

In comparison to now

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-0-large-rundate=latest

[blitzen]

Blitzen, fantastic chart of atlantic flow rates.... or lack of BTW

We could have a game of spot the gulfstream and none of us would win!

Rapid onset of significant cooler periods is possible given the evidence that exsists if you are able to trawl through it. If you take a look at pollen and sediment anaylsis it can point to quite significant rates of cooling.... and at the end warming again.

However we have a whole forum to discuss stuff to do with the past ice ages.

Think of ot this wat if ENSO events can have a massive impact on the planets climate, why cant a breakdown of the gulfstream cause a cooling? If it isnt there, it cant keep us warm... SST around the north west coast of Scotland are down on what happened last summer.

What is pending is a definite slow down of the gulfstream, you cannot deny it, as it is plain to see from Blitzens post.

The question that we should all be discussing is why the slowdown?

Hi. Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with BP. This slow down was happening before the disaster. What I don't understand and I think this is where all the conflicting opinions are arising, is that it isn't really being reported on or discussed at higher levels. You would think considering the effects that could ensue that it would be? Quite a few posters therefore, understandably, are in fact questioning the NOAA charts and are wondering if last year's flow charts are being viewed at a higher resolution to this year's? Which would account for the apparent difference in flow? Other posters have put up charts where there is hardly any difference in the flow at all. It is quite difficult when there is no archived data for comparison. I actually thought we were closer this evening when a poster put up a site which had charts going back 18years but didn't update past January this year- (strange?) I do think it a bit curious that there appears to be a 'backing off' from the warming scenario all of a sudden and we are now under the auspices of 'Climate Disruption?' Still, after all is said and done, if it's going to happen it will happen and we will not have to wait long to see who was right or wrong. Personally I believe in natural cycles and I think that this is what is happening now. Why shouldn't it be? The signs are certainly there and I must say I am enjoying the chase!

[weather eater]

I ask the question again, if this is happening then why is it not a major story across, not just across the climate science community, but also across the western media, logical answers please.

[johncoolj]

http://i82.photobuck...urr20090820.png

A reminder of what things look like last year from a post earlier in the thread. There is clearly a massive difference.

In comparison to now

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

Yep big diff there

yet people on this website are saying its bullonions

how can they say what you have just posted is bull

it clearly is a massive difference

[Cheese Rice]

Yep big diff there

yet people on this website are saying its bullonions

how can they say what you have just posted is bull

it clearly is a massive difference

Is it really a massive difference though? The north Atlantic Current has and always will fluctuate, it is perfectly normal for long periods of time to see high or low levels. Has this been happening for decades? No. Until we see a very long period of time (and I mean 30-50+ years) can we then start questioning.  

Edited October 12, 2010 by 10123

[johncoolj]

0

Is it really a massive difference though? The north Atlantic Current has and always will fluctuate, it is perfectly normal for long periods of time to see high or low levels. Has this been happening for decades? No. Until we see a very long period of time (and I mean 30-50+ years) can we then start questioning.

I have read that sunspots or lack of can effect it and they effect the jetstream too it happend in the last mini ice again

i think more like 1 -2 3 years 30 years seems a bit long

Edited October 12, 2010 by johncoolj

[bobbydog]

I ask the question again, if this is happening then why is it not a major story across, not just across the climate science community, but also across the western media, logical answers please.

[/

probably because there is no definitive proof that it is happening. no scientist really wants to stick their neck out and say it is because the media would jump all over it and quote 'day after tomorrow' scenarios. so if it turned out to be wrong, said scientist would be blamed for creating mass panic, thus ruining his reputation. so until the scientific community can provide concrete evidence, they will keep their mouths shut

[Iceni]

I ask the question again, if this is happening then why is it not a major story across, not just across the climate science community, but also across the western media, logical answers please.

probably because there is no definitive proof that it is happening. no scientist really wants to stick their neck out and say it is because the media would jump all over it and quote 'day after tomorrow' scenarios. so if it turned out to be wrong, said scientist would be blamed for creating mass panic, thus ruining his reputation. so until the scientific community can provide concrete evidence, they will keep their mouths shut

It's a question of the mechanics of the Gulf Stream… which basically behaves like a pump. I used to work for Nature and drew up the figure for this possibility in 1994/5 (I can't remember the author — sorry).

If more fresh water flows into the Baltic/Arctic sea/Newfoundland due to glacier melt and more rainfall swells great rivers, such as the Volga, from increased temperatures, this will dilute the salinity of Arctic/North Atlantic sea water. Salty water is heavier than fresh so therefore sinks, displacing the fresh and so a pump action develops over huge distances circulating the Atlantic. With decreased salinity the driver or 'engine' of this pump action will fade away and the Gulf Stream will cease… that's the theory.

Edited October 13, 2010 by Iceni

[Essan]

I ask the question again, if this is happening then why is it not a major story across, not just across the climate science community, but also across the western media, logical answers please.

Because the real story isn't what people want to hear

Confirming work by other scientists using different methodologies, they found dramatic short-term variability but no longer-term trend.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8589512.stm

Simple fact is that scientists look at long term trends, internet conspiracy-mongers leap to false conclusions based on misunderstanding of short term variability.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Blitsen I didnt mention BP in my previous post..lol

You have a very valid point weather eater, why hasnt this been investigated further? Why the wall of silence? It is very healthy for us ALL to question the methodology and integrity of those studying climate change, cause and effect. The scandel surrounding the IPCC should give us a very clear warning message. Just because we, as yet dont fully understand something as complex as oceanic currents, does not mean to say that an event will not or is not already beginning to happen.

I think the word small differences is the key here... small means not significant and significance is an extremely important term in research, when doing the statistical analysis to test the null hypothesis. Without a valid significance test result, research cannot be published in a scientific journal. My thought is what if the differences in oceanic currents is alot smaller than the requirements of the significance test? What if these apparent tiny changes have a huge ampliflied effect on global oceanic and atmospheric circulation?

Quoted from the beeb article

"The satellite record going back to 1993 did suggest a small increase in flow, although the researchers cannot be sure it is significant"

This is what we have to watch for in studying climae change, these apparent very small differences that science HAS to dismiss because of that magical significance test.

[blitzen]

Blitsen I didnt mention BP in my previous post..lol

You have a very valid point weather eater, why hasnt this been investigated further? Why the wall of silence? It is very healthy for us ALL to question the methodology and integrity of those studying climate change, cause and effect. The scandel surrounding the IPCC should give us a very clear warning message. Just because we, as yet dont fully understand something as complex as oceanic currents, does not mean to say that an event will not or is not already beginning to happen.

I think the word small differences is the key here... small means not significant and significance is an extremely important term in research, when doing the statistical analysis to test the null hypothesis. Without a valid significance test result, research cannot be published in a scientific journal. My thought is what if the differences in oceanic currents is alot smaller than the requirements of the significance test? What if these apparent tiny changes have a huge ampliflied effect on global oceanic and atmospheric circulation?

Quoted from the beeb article

"The satellite record going back to 1993 did suggest a small increase in flow, although the researchers cannot be sure it is significant"

This is what we have to watch for in studying climae change, these apparent very small differences that science HAS to dismiss because of that magical significance test.

Morning! Pinched this link from another forum. Hope they don't mind! 7 year archive data:

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/gif/

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/gif/gulf_101005_vel.gif - 5th October 2010.

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/gif/gulf_030101_vel.gif - 1st January 2003.

There does appear to be a weakening of the current this year from January to present. However, don't think it merits armageddon status just yet! Great to have something to compare to tho'

You can clearly see the difference in strength over the seven years comparing the two links above.

Edited October 13, 2010 by Blitzen

[Ladyofthestorm]

Thanks Blitzen!I note the difference in the scale of image...I wonder what number crunching the scientists have done with the flow figures?The problem is I dont think the gulfstream has lsowed down the USA side of the atlantic, you can see that from the ex hurricane tracks this year. However I think the impact is much more mid to this side of the atlantic. The atlantic is losing its energy, hence the relatively quiet spell of weather here since october last year.We live on Skye and the wind turbine has barely moved for a year! Does that not tell you something? Look at the number of huge hurricanes that should have gone extra tropical on us, and we should have been in the firing line and instead they have swung off to sunny Greenland. I can count a dozen times this summer the fronts that have stalled over us for days, no wind just rain. Maybe it shouldnt be science telling us that summat is up with the gulfstream, maybe its just plain common sense.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Before anyone gets too excited about this, the points made earlier about decreasing salinity are valid, but more so is the fact that the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift is as much a wind driven system as a sea current. The NAO has been consistently negative, meaning less strong Westerly winds, that in turn means that the strength of the surface flow decreases, as does the deeper current flow. Westerly gales across the Atlantic, notable by their absence for most of this year are the main deliverer of the warm surface water from lower latitudes. If there are fewer gales, the speed of the transport is bound to slow.

I see Lady of the Storm beat me to it saying much the same thing

Edited October 13, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[RichardR]

I reckon all this hype about the north atlantic current "going", (which it won't) is just being perpetuated by those with a bias and predisposition toward cold and winter, this is basically the new playground of the "cold rampers" if you will. Just an observation.

[Ladyofthestorm]

and the same can be said for the mild rampers in dismissing it, everyone to there own. Only time will tell. A cold winter for me is a very very cold long winter for everyone else not living in the north and my winter is quite long enough thank you. Ask anyone living in the Highlands. I dont need to snow ramp.However I do see the effects of the north atlantic activity.. or lack of it in this case. Something is "up" with the weather and its affecting our climate. Fact... we had 100mm of precipitation (Skye Lusa site, Im just a mile away from it), in 6 months.Fact ... the average maximum gust sustained last autumn was just 33 knots ( we have a very good weather station here).Fact .. SST around the area are down... by 2C, which is alot. I know this because of the salmon fisheries take regular temps checksFact.. Prevailing wind direction is NWly to NEly... This is the case for 78% of the time. kiss goodbye to the prevailing SWlyFact.. last time we had a windstorm... er um... a Nly in Feb 2009.. 80 knot gustsNow take a good look at that chart and tell me if you think it gulf stream is active or inactive over in this area? Over the next few months keep watching that chart. We are supposed to have had a very active hurricane season. The wind we have had here hasnt been enough to blow out a candle!

[MR EXTREMES]

http://i82.photobuck...urr20090820.png

A reminder of what things look like last year from a post earlier in the thread. There is clearly a massive difference.

In comparison to now

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

my you aint kinding massive difference i was slating this saying theres noway its shutdown i think im eating my words from seeing that is looks rather crazy.

but is this due to strong la nina increased hurricaine seaon or even a satilite not getting deep enough is it possible that it may have just sunk to a deeper depth.

Is it really a massive difference though? The north Atlantic Current has and always will fluctuate, it is perfectly normal for long periods of time to see high or low levels. Has this been happening for decades? No. Until we see a very long period of time (and I mean 30-50+ years) can we then start questioning.

to be fair scientist have said several years ago it was declining in strength i know there was a study done by southampton uni that said back then it had decreased by 30%

it was also not long ago a paper was publised that salinity had increased around the tropics!

its possible that fresh water from the north and salinity around the tropics could cause a flow breakdown but its also possible it could increase the flow but looking at other years there does seen to be a slowdown.

[Essan]

I reckon all this hype about the north atlantic current "going", (which it won't) is just being perpetuated by those with a bias and predisposition toward cold and winter, this is basically the new playground of the "cold rampers" if you will. Just an observation.

I think you're right - especially given the way they assume they are experts on the matter, whilst totally ignoring the scientists who actually monitor and study the current.

To repeated what I quote a few posts back: they found dramatic short-term variability but no longer-term trend. You guys are looking at short term variability in the surface current (possibly caused by a negative NAO). There is no long term trend detectable by any of the data in this thread pointing at a decline in Meridional Overturning. And if it hadn't been for that silly Italian getting all excited about the Loop Current producing a very normal breakaway eddy during the summer - and the subsequent outbreak of blogoid herpes - we'd not even be discussing the Gulf Stream.

(And for the record I'm a mild ramper in the same way I'm a 28 stone Bulgarian female shotputter called Vanya who is married to the King of Siam )

[MR EXTREMES]

I think you're right - especially given the way they assume they are experts on the matter, whilst totally ignoring the scientists who actually monitor and study the current.

To repeated what I quote a few posts back: they found dramatic short-term variability but no longer-term trend. You guys are looking at short term variability in the surface current (possibly caused by a negative NAO). There is no long term trend detectable by any of the data in this thread pointing at a decline in Meridional Overturning. And if it hadn't been for that silly Italian getting all excited about the Loop Current producing a very normal breakaway eddy during the summer - and the subsequent outbreak of blogoid herpes - we'd not even be discussing the Gulf Stream.

(And for the record I'm a mild ramper in the same way I'm a 28 stone Bulgarian female shotputter called Vanya who is married to the King of Siam )

but to be fair it does not mean this could be the start of a longterm trend nobody knows the answers right now only that there is a decrease which is clear to see.

could be back tomorrow next week next year but in theory theres possibility it could be breaking down.

my words are never say never can it shutdown completely of coarse can it fire up again ofcoarse.

[Ladyofthestorm]

<br />I think you're right - especially given the way they assume they are experts on the matter, whilst totally ignoring the scientists who actually monitor and study the current.<br /><br />To repeated what I quote a few posts back: <b>they found dramatic short-term variability but no longer-term trend</b>.  You guys are looking at short term variability in the surface current (possibly caused by a negative NAO).  There is no long term trend detectable by any of the data in this thread pointing at a decline in Meridional Overturning.  And if it hadn't been for that silly Italian getting all excited about the Loop Current producing a very normal breakaway eddy during the summer - and the subsequent outbreak of blogoid herpes - we'd not even be discussing the Gulf Stream.<br /><br />(And for the record I'm a mild ramper in the same way I'm a 28 stone Bulgarian female shotputter called Vanya who is married to the King of Siam <img src='http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> )<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Hi Essan,

Im not sure how this topic has managed to wonder into the realms of ice ages, long term climate change etc, having had a look through it has gotten a bit lost.

It is the short term variablity that could give us a cold winter. See my post above on statistical manipulation/ handling of data. I am a graduate scientist in environmental science, I know a little in how science and the scientific experimental process works. The problem they have right now is with having a set of results that is significant either way, until then there hands are tied thats why they are claiming short term variablity because that is all they can measure. All the study highlights is the limitations of our knowledge and understanding of a system that is full of negative feedback mechanisms from the lithosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere.

A slowing down of the gulfstream is like everything else just because you cant see it happening doesnt mean to say that it isnt happening.