The North Atlantic Current Is Gone

[blitzen]

I must say the latest NAD output is looking much healthier!

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-0-small-rundate=latest

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I must say the latest NAD output is looking much healthier!

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

Yes, our old friend the NAD is still there, for now

Flicking to ocean temperature does show how the NAD does not apparently have a huge effect on UK costal water T's; the temperature banding is relatively consistent with latitude across the Atlantic - only slight favouring to milder near northern Europe. What I mean is the NAD is not clearly visible as a roasting hot current snaking its way all the way to Land's End, bathing the UK in glowing warmth.

[eyeofthestorm]

I must say the latest NAD output is looking much healthier!

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

Looks the same to me not much difference from what I can see, unless I am missing something?? Slight improvement over the North coast of scotland at t144hrs but probably just down to surface winds from low pressure

Edited October 24, 2010 by eyeofthestorm

[johncoolj]

Looks the same to me not much difference from what I can see, unless I am missing something?? Slight improvement over the North coast of scotland at t144hrs but probably just down to surface winds from low pressure

Yep no diff at all still no flow to uk or ireland

[ZONE 51]

The far SW of england has the highest adverage temps ,in general its milder down that part of the UK in winter, being next to the (warm) atlantic, closer to the (milder winds), now as we know the part of the gulf stream the NAD north atlantic drift brings up warmer waters, from warmer water rises moisture creating clouds and weather systems, if this water cools it changes the UK climate, maybe the NAD is a small player some might say? imagine what the gulf stream can do for the uk and other parts of europe, what about america? this gs is incredible, read up on how much warm water it moves along! slow it down or weaken it then...cold water is more than warm. anyway im not a scientist.

[ZONE 51]

I read today of one scientist's thoughts of why we are warmer than we should be, its because of the Rockies the Rocky mountains in America, its why we get warm sw winds, not just the NAD/GS , if the rockies was not their then we would have a west to east wind not sw, and be cooler.

So their you go, another theory, another debate!

Edited October 26, 2010 by nimbilus

[phil nw.]

An early look at the models this morning shows a continuing South Westerly pattern into November.

Good agreement of High pressure to the South and Low pressure to the North for the next week or so.

So unsettled and often rather mild especially further south.

[knocker]

Yes, our old friend the NAD is still there, for now

Flicking to ocean temperature does show how the NAD does not apparently have a huge effect on UK costal water T's; the temperature banding is relatively consistent with latitude across the Atlantic - only slight favouring to milder near northern Europe. What I mean is the NAD is not clearly visible as a roasting hot current snaking its way all the way to Land's End, bathing the UK in glowing warmth.

Perhaps a quick look back at an earlier post.

With the trade winds blowing westward across the oceans in tropical latitudes and prevailing westerlies blowing eastward at higher latitudes, it is understandable why the current gyres should form the dominant surface current pattern in the low and midlatitudes. What isn’t so obvious, however, is the reason why these currents should be so swift and narrow along the oceans’ western boundaries. What could possibly cause this western intensification of surface currents?

The Gulf Stream is just one of these swift narrow western boundary currents. A look at the diagram shows that there are similar intensified boundary currents along the western edges of all oceans, in both hemispheres. From considerations of the winds alone, you should think that each current could be half an ocean wide. But they are not, so are why they are so swift and narrow, and why do they occur on the western ocean margins only.

There are three related processes that contribute to the creation of strong narrow western boundary currents, all of which are products of the Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation. The first cause is that when an equatorial surface current runs into the continent on the ocean’s western margin, it “squirts out the sides, just like water in a stream that strikes a rock, or water from a garden hose that strikes the side of a building.

Second, the Coriolis deflection is stronger in the portion of the gyres at higher latitudes, where these eastward-flowing waters are deflected toward the equator. This pinches the equatorial currents and tends to prevent them from leaving the equator until they reach the very western end.

The fact that the strength of the Coriolis deflection increases at higher latitudes produces another related effect. When this water is flowing east, it gets deflected quickly toward the equator, whereas when it is flowing west, it is very close to the equator and gets deflected only very weakly. Consequently, the water tends to flow farther to the west than toward the east in any complete cycle, and the gyre tends to move westward across the ocean each time the water flows around it. This westward tendency forces the gyre up against the western margins where the currents are correspondingly compressed and intensified.

The third cause of the intensified western boundary currents is also related to the earth’s rotation, through the apparent change in the rotational state of objects moving north or south along the Earth’s surface.

A mass of water starting on the equator with no spin at all appears to acquire a spin as it goes. The farther poleward it goes, the faster it appears to spin. At intermediate latitudes, this amount of spin is less than one complete revolution per day. But if the water mass is wide, it doesn’t have to spin very rapidly for the outer regions to have high speeds. For example, a water mass 1000 kilometers wide and spinning only half a revolution per day would have to move at 65 kilometers per hour on its outer boundary!

Because of the dominant wind-induced current gyres, surface waters in the western portions of all oceans are traveling away from the equator. As these water masses go toward the pole, they acquire the appropriate spin (clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and counter clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere) to make the current on the very western edge extremely swift.

Taking all of that into account I suspect although the GS may well vary in intensity over periods it is certainly not a cause for alarm. The NAC is another kettle of fish. The flow is weaker anyway and if the atmospheric western circulation in those latitudes suffered sustained spells of disruption then possibly this and the coriolis could severely slow it down. But this is just a guess.

EDIT.

Not to be foregotten. Ocean currents account for a significant proportion of the poleward heat transfer in low latitudes. Fairly recent satellite estimates of the required total poleward energy transfer indicates that the previous figures are too low. The ocean transport may be47% of the total at 30-35N and as much as 74% at 20N; the Gulf Stream and the Huro Shiro currents are particularly important.

Large scale surface currents. (Source: Keith Stowe-Exploring Ocean Science)

Edited October 26, 2010 by weather ship

[ZONE 51]

When the real block sets up and we go into winter with the suns warmth becoming much less, we are to be frozen, if its to cold for the birds out e/ne they fly away, as they are now already, this is were i expect the winds to blow from during december maybe november late, a northly first in nov, the gulf stream has some effect, is it a delayed effect?, it started to weaken in 2005?, more evidence needed, the solar low and a new volcanic eruption(just started) is worrying, , the atmosphere affects are to be late winter of this new eruption, how long is the eruption to last...this is concerning.

Edited October 27, 2010 by nimbilus

[Ladyofthestorm]

Funny you should think that today Nimbus, I was watching on TV the Tsumani in Indonesia and the caise of it an Earthquake. Then realised tha the earthquake is now possibly linked to a volcanic erupstion on an active volcano.The effects of volcanic eruptions on glabal climate tend to be short term, but as you say lag effects of the solar minumum and large scale changes in oceanic circulation are all bound to have an effect, whatever that effect may be!

Scottish Skier, fantastic few posts there. I studied Quaternary environmental change at Uni as well and struggle to buy global warming. Too well educated! But again that was some 16 years ago since I graduated from Stirling Uni.

[bobbydog]

Funny you should think that today Nimbus, I was watching on TV the Tsumani in Indonesia and the caise of it an Earthquake. Then realised tha the earthquake is now possibly linked to a volcanic erupstion on an active volcano.The effects of volcanic eruptions on glabal climate tend to be short term, but as you say lag effects of the solar minumum and large scale changes in oceanic circulation are all bound to have an effect, whatever that effect may be!

Scottish Skier, fantastic few posts there. I studied Quaternary environmental change at Uni as well and struggle to buy global warming. Too well educated! But again that was some 16 years ago since I graduated from Stirling Uni.

hi LOTS, merapi is only really in the news as it is a danger to the local population. it rarely produces explosive eruptions so is unlikely to affect the weather at all. however, i read recently that the volcanoes in the kamchatka region of russia are the ones we should worry about, then i found this today

Saturday 23rd October 2010

Klyuchevskoy Volcano, Russia

Explosive eruptions continue at Klyuchevskoy Volcano, Kamchatka. During the last week there has been increased activity, and ash plumes have reached a height of 30,000 ft above sea level and extended 300 km north of the volcano. The volcano is currently at the highest level RED alert.

we rarely hear about these as they are in a largely unpopulated area but apparently there are several large volcanoes in this region which have the potential to all go off at once!!

[snowmadchrisuk]

It's multifactorial. A combination of knowns and unknowns! (And it hasn't occurred yet!)

Gulf stream almost stopped , the gulf oil spill, all possible causes , I would advise only the strong willed watch this video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMqRScmeu9I&feature=player_embedded

Edited November 14, 2010 by snowmadchrisuk

[weathe20]

Gulf stream almost stopped , the gulf oil spill, all possible causes , I would advise only the strong willed watch this video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMqRScmeu9I&feature=player_embedded

I admit I havent yet watched this video, but the Gulf Stream and Gulf Loop are different. For starters the Gulf Loop is a loop of warm water in the Gulf going round and round, the Stream is the warm current

up the coast of E USA towards the British Isles.

[k19]

I may be completely wrong here but here's my theory on the whole thing.

First of all I'd like to pitch the idea that BP aren't to blame but that's another story.

Okay Global Warming is supposedly melting the ice caps and they say that the salinity difference in fresh water and seawater is what is causing the gulf to slow down (as it 'evidently' has been for years). This according to many of the videos posted, combined with the solar minimum and other factors such as volcanic eruptions should in theory cool the earth down. Now correct me if i'm wrong but I am envisioning a loop here. Global warming warms the earth. The gulf stream and other factors caused by global warming then cool the earth. Surely this will be a cycle and a natural thermostat will keep us within boundaries?

[stewfox]

Gulf stream almost stopped , the gulf oil spill, all possible causes , I would advise only the strong willed watch this video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMqRScmeu9I&feature=player_embedded

Very funny

Although the thing with the mammoths is true I hear

Edited November 14, 2010 by stewfox

[phaywarduk]

I have to say that the current warm SST's in the North Atlantic, the obvious strong Atlantic weather and jet stream directly over the UK do seem to throw doubt on the theory of an NAC stalll. If the stall were truly real then I think we would be witnessing some kind of signal to register the event such as a quiet Atlantic and/or a more southerly jet. But it does begin to look like business as usual regarding a warm wash of Atlantic weather systems over the coming winter months.

Regards,

Paul

[m1chaels]

Hmm - with rather 'unusual' blocking and forecast temperatures that may move from 'its a bit chilly' to 'its a real issue' I may have to question this post...now where is that jet?

I have to say that the current warm SST's in the North Atlantic, the obvious strong Atlantic weather and jet stream directly over the UK do seem to throw doubt on the theory of an NAC stalll. If the stall were truly real then I think we would be witnessing some kind of signal to register the event such as a quiet Atlantic and/or a more southerly jet. But it does begin to look like business as usual regarding a warm wash of Atlantic weather systems over the coming winter months.

Regards,

Paul

[mesocyclone]

Is it time to resurrect this thread? Are we starting to see why that big white Landmass is called Greenland. Everything runs in cycles, it's all wave forms and frequency when it comes to Mother nature. Lets hope it takes a while yet!

[Southern Storm]

Is it time to resurrect this thread? Are we starting to see why that big white Landmass is called Greenland. Everything runs in cycles, it's all wave forms and frequency when it comes to Mother nature. Lets hope it takes a while yet!

Thats an anomaly chart, a bit of yellow around Greenland does not mean that Greenland is going to melt.

and I think that its safe to say that something has happend to N A C look at that cold anomaly crossing the atlantic

intresting times.

Edited December 25, 2010 by thunderman24

[Itscoldoutside]

Actually Groenland may be so named due to the green of the lower parts of Greenland in the summer. The ones not covered by glaciers.

Is it time to resurrect this thread? Are we starting to see why that big white Landmass is called Greenland. Everything runs in cycles, it's all wave forms and frequency when it comes to Mother nature. Lets hope it takes a while yet!

Edited December 25, 2010 by Itscoldoutside

[mesocyclone]

Actually Greenland derives from the Danish...Gronland which means Land of the People.

Thank you for the education. I love to learn and view the mind as an infinite hard drive, i will look that up now and remember it!

My point was it used to be a bit greener and a lot milder in parts(round about where the warming is?), I've been watching the SST and have noticed Greenland being warmer than average for quite a while now. I'm interested in past weather cycles and i find it very interesting the N.A.D seems to be not coming our way but a new anomaly has been quite persistent around Greenland. When i have researched into Ice periods the common theme is they are caused by solar cycles, sea currents and volcanic activity. I believe we reached a tipping point in 2007and are now in a period of global cooling with all of these factors coming together.

A look at the interglacial data shows these very long term cycles clearly. I think it is worth more investment into the study of past cold cycles over warm as they are far deadlier.

Edited December 25, 2010 by mesocyclone

[BornFromTheVoid]

Lets not get too excited yet thunderman24, similar thing happened earlier in the year

Then what happened a few months later?

If the pattern holds and intensifies over the next few months then it may be something of interest though!

[yamkin]

Gulf stream almost stopped , the gulf oil spill, all possible causes , I would advise only the strong willed watch this video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMqRScmeu9I&feature=player_embedded

Gulf Stream is damaged according to the video. Looks like the UK and the rest of Europe are in for even more severe winters.

PS....MODs, apologies for posting this in the Model Thread.

[Gowon]

Sorry I don't agree with the Gulf stream dying out due to the oil spill theory. It doesn't explain why our last 2 winters have been very cold and there was no oil spill then, was there?

My theory is that, the weak Gulf stream and everything else that aiding this very cold pattern has more correlation to the weak sun. Coincidence?

For instance, the last 2 winters in Europe have been cold/very cold and we now have a record breaking Nov/Dec, its now 2 years in row that the whole of the British isles have been covered in snow.

[yamkin]

Sorry I don't agree with the Gulf stream dying out due to the oil spill theory. It doesn't explain why our last 2 winters have been very cold and there was no oil spill then, was there?

My theory is that, the weak Gulf stream and everything else that aiding this very cold pattern has more correlation to the weak sun. Coincidence?

For instance, the last 2 winters in Europe have been cold/very cold and we now have a record breaking Nov/Dec, its now 2 years in row that the whole of the British isles have been covered in snow.

I don't agree with the 'Gulf stream dying out', I do believe the Gulf Stream is damaged and I believe this is adding to the already cooler winters we have and are having right now.

I hope you have watched the video as it really does explain a lot.

Edited December 28, 2010 by yamkin