The North Atlantic Current Is Gone

[Guest]

im sorry this thread is in danger of becoming caravany.

there has been evidence that the gulf stream has lost some power but nothing to cause alarm,the story that started this is unfounded and very unrealistic and poorly expessed to a stage where alot of people on here are calling it rubbish.

i think the whole point of this thread is to try and find out whether theres any truth about this recent developement in my opion ive seen very little evidence thats convinced me its true.

but the evidence does support that there has been a reduction of 30% over decades,

but strengths rise and fall all the time and is never at one strength im not educated enough to say why either,

but know that if it had stopped then it would be the biggest story on earth and would hit the headlines,i expect the missing northern arm of the gulf stream is either down to missing data or depth of flow instead of strength.

but saying this even another weakening of the gulf stream by 20% would be enough to lower temps that little bit more 75% then it gets cold 90% or above then alarm bells should start ringing but right now theres nothing to worry about.

and in my opion winter this year will be chilly anyway so really it dont need to shutdown lol.

I am no expert either but on seeing the charts and the highish anomalies in the Newfounland area I wondered whether I wondered whether the drift had changed course for some reason and was deflected to the west.

[johncoolj]

have a look at this

http://the.gulf.stream.died.in.2010.and.one.scientist.knew.it.four.years.ago.at.german.pages.de/

[Guest]

Well sod it, if that's the case I will have to move to the south of France - just got to convince SWMO.

[knocker]

I'll just throw this in as a general observation from the Marine Institute of the University of Plymouth, case study 4. The other link is redundant.

http://www.research.plymouth.ac.uk/marine/pages/assessing/climate.html

[blitzen]

I'll just throw this in as a general observation from the Marine Institute of the University of Plymouth, case study 4. The other link is redundant.

http://www.research.plymouth.ac.uk/marine/pages/assessing/climate.html

How refreshing to read something that doesn't have Stirling's name embedded in it! Not sure what the result of their findings would mean tho' Warmer ocean could = more moisture. More moisture trapped in the atmosphere could = more precipitation and if the climate is indeed cooling? Now then, there's a recipe!

It ties in nicely with an article I was listening to, which stated that the amount of underwater volcanoes/ridges was far more than originally anticipated. Now into the millions?/billions? I believe. I honestly couldn't make out what he said (maybe he had a cold!) :lol: Perhaps this sea warming is a result of their activity?

Edited September 16, 2010 by Blitzen

[knocker]

How refreshing to read something that doesn't have Stirling's name embedded in it! Not sure what the result of their findings would mean tho' Warmer ocean could = more moisture. More moisture trapped in the atmosphere could = more precipitation and if the climate is indeed cooling? Now then, there's a recipe!

And probably total cloud cover would increase and clouds at different levels have different feedbacks. I don't think I'll go there.:lol:

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I am no expert either but on seeing the charts and the highish anomalies in the Newfounland area I wondered whether I wondered whether the drift had changed course for some reason and was deflected to the west.

Well, as the NAD is predominantly a wind assisted ( if not driven ) circulation, could the fact that the Atlantic has been quiet most of 2010 have something to do with it as well. The Westerlies are not piling the water against the Norwegian coast, the water then pools further west.

As some meerkat might say

Simple.

[Guest mycroft]

Yes there is always a danger reading lots into data we see today without knowledge of historic data and patterns of data.

I have been surprised to see 'above average' temperatures around the Maine coast (N. America/Canada) across to Newfoundland, is this connected with the warm stream heading up there rather than across the Atlantic?

If so this might signal a meaningful change which could affect us in the UK.

I actually enquired of Southampton Centre of Oceanography if they had data covering sea temperatures in the English Channel approaches and off N. Ireland for this year, 10, 20 and 30 years ago for comparison purposes.

They were unable to help but suggested a couple of possible sources. Has anyone already made such comparisons?

Our weatherman (David Braine) on our local BBC regional news said about a month or so ago, that the SST's around the south west coast this year were down on recent years by around 1'c

Edited September 16, 2010 by mycroft

[knocker]

Around the UK-

• Marine air and sea surface temperatures (SST) have been rising at a similar rate to land air temperature, but with strong regional variations. Since the 1980s the rate of rise has been about 0.2-0.6 ºC per decade.
• Warming has been faster in the English Channel and southern North Sea than within Scottish continental shelf waters.

At great risk I'll link the website. It does contain some rather useful info. ( IMHO of course)

http://www.mccip.org.uk/annual-report-card/2007-2008/marine-environment/temperature.aspx

[m1chaels]

If we are doing conspiracy theories can I add the particularly Northern / Eastern track the big hurricanes seem to be taking this year in to the mix?!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

If we are doing conspiracy theories can I add the particularly Northern / Eastern track the big hurricanes seem to be taking this year in to the mix?!

That's a (relatively) simple one. As the Storms are forming much further East than normal, there's usually a weakness somewhere along the Mid Atlantic ridge which they can break through. If they formed in their usual positions, they would be much more likely to carry on westwards.

And the probable formation further East than usual was actually part of the forecast, so they got that spot on

Edited September 16, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[blitzen]

I remember reading this article way back in 2005. I see it is doing the rounds again!

http://www.spiritofmaat.com/announce/ann_dryice.htm

http://ec.europa.eu/research/rtdinfo/special_pol/04/print_article_2603_en.html

Edited September 18, 2010 by Blitzen

[blitzen]

Latest from NOAA: Improvement?

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-0-large-rundate=latest

[bobbydog]

Latest from NOAA: Improvement?

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

doubtful, just hurricane igor churning up the surface waters. if you look at the sst's the atlantic seems to be cooling quite rapidly

Edited September 18, 2010 by bobbydog

[Tom D]

How refreshing to read something that doesn't have Stirling's name embedded in it! Not sure what the result of their findings would mean tho' Warmer ocean could = more moisture. More moisture trapped in the atmosphere could = more precipitation and if the climate is indeed cooling? Now then, there's a recipe!

It ties in nicely with an article I was listening to, which stated that the amount of underwater volcanoes/ridges was far more than originally anticipated. Now into the millions?/billions? I believe. I honestly couldn't make out what he said (maybe he had a cold!) :lol: Perhaps this sea warming is a result of their activity?

The climate is not cooling, it is warming considerably. I would expect any 'cold' European winters to be a short term thing (like 50-150 years) as after this time the world will be so much warmer that even with a synoptic set up like last years, there'd be so much warm air around it would be fairly mild in comparison. Winter 09/10 was an extreme winter, especially January for the whole of the UK, but for Scotland the whole 3 months. It is extremely unlikely that it will be anything as cold for so long this coming winter. That doesn't mean there won't be cold spells. Of course, I'll be eating my words if January turns out 1/2c below average again.

Our weatherman (David Braine) on our local BBC regional news said about a month or so ago, that the SST's around the south west coast this year were down on recent years by around 1'c

That's probably just a lasting effect of the cold winter?

[cooling climate]

The climate is not cooling, it is warming considerably.

Where did you get that from. Think again my friend.

[weathe20]

There were some links posted here from a weather forecasting company saying how this winter will start at the end of september. Has anyone got that link? They forecast snow for the end of September. The weather this week seems to very summer like with temps in the low 20's, looks like that forcasting company has egg on its face already. I think they based its forecast on a declining gulf stream.

[Met4Cast]

There were some links posted here from a weather forecasting company saying how this winter will start at the end of september. Has anyone got that link? They forecast snow for the end of September. The weather this week seems to very summer like with temps in the low 20's, looks like that forcasting company has egg on its face already. I think they based its forecast on a declining gulf stream.

You're right in saying it'll be feeling warm this week. But thats due to a weak area of low pressure building Northwards into the North Sea. The Mild Spell will be short lived because as we move through into the weekend, colder air will return from the N/NE before high pressure builds in across the United Kingdom bringing some cold nights with fog and frosts likely away from coastal areas.

[weathe20]

You're right in saying it'll be feeling warm this week. But thats due to a weak area of low pressure building Northwards into the North Sea. The Mild Spell will be short lived because as we move through into the weekend, colder air will return from the N/NE before high pressure builds in across the United Kingdom bringing some cold nights with fog and frosts likely away from coastal areas.

Ah I see, so as I said no proper start of winter as described by the links I saw.

[Met4Cast]

Ah I see, so as I said no proper start of winter as described by the links I saw.

It was probably PWS that you saw forecasting that, if thats the case ignore it, they're always wrong. I don't think we'll really see winter starting properly until Mid October/November

[weathe20]

It was probably PWS that you saw forecasting that, if thats the case ignore it, they're always wrong. I don't think we'll really see winter starting properly until Mid October/November

Sorry what is PWS, Id like to head over to their website and contact them. Thanks.

[johnholmes]

hi W20

You must be very new, no insult intended, to this forum not to have heard of the company PWS=Positive Weather Solutions, just Google it and see who it is runs it. He is about as good at weather forecasts, usually, but has been spectacularly correct about 1 in 10, as a chocolate fire guard!

[Met4Cast]

Sorry what is PWS, Id like to head over to their website and contact them. Thanks.

Positive Weather Solutions.

A few days ago they were forecasting floods for the end of the month, now they're forecasting snow.

Anyway, best get back on topic before the mods get their baseball bats out and start banning people.

[weathe20]

hi W20

You must be very new, no insult intended, to this forum not to have heard of the company PWS=Positive Weather Solutions, just Google it and see who it is runs it. He is about as good at weather forecasts, usually, but has been spectacularly correct about 1 in 10, as a chocolate fire guard!

Positive Weather Solutions.

A few days ago they were forecasting floods for the end of the month, now they're forecasting snow.

Anyway, best get back on topic before the mods get their baseball bats out and start banning people.

Thanks chaps.

[Cheese Rice]

The climate is not cooling, it is warming considerably. I would expect any 'cold' European winters to be a short term thing (like 50-150 years) as after this time the world will be so much warmer that even with a synoptic set up like last years, there'd be so much warm air around it would be fairly mild in comparison. Winter 09/10 was an extreme winter, especially January for the whole of the UK, but for Scotland the whole 3 months. It is extremely unlikely that it will be anything as cold for so long this coming winter. That doesn't mean there won't be cold spells. Of course, I'll be eating my words if January turns out 1/2c below average again.

You can't really say short term is 50-150 years, yes in terms of the planets lifespan, no in terms of comparing Global warming. Which (arguably) has only been happening in the last 40-100 years. So who's to say global warming isn't short term?

Edited September 20, 2010 by 10123