The North Atlantic Current Is Gone

[Methuselah]

As there's no evidence at all that the globe is cooling, I guess the apparent vanishing of the NAD is as good a straw to clutch at as any...Unfortunately, there's no evidence for this either...

[Cymro]

As there's no evidence at all that the globe is cooling, I guess the apparent vanishing of the NAD is as good a straw to clutch at as any...Unfortunately, there's no evidence for this either...

It's a touchy subject there exist some evidence of some theories and next to nill of others. Many who proclaim Armageddon is on the way need to remember nature has a wonderful way of balancing herself out she has done so in the past and will do so again. I personally am not a believer of Global Warming to the extent some scientist claim however there is strong evidence to support warming in some areas just as there are to support cooling. Many believe the UK will become cooler and the northern areas of Europe due to the slowing down of the gulf stream, it has weakened in the last 25 years but not to an extent where it will drastically change our weather. It won't happen over night guys, it's a process that will take umpteen years.

[laserguy]

It won't happen over night guys, it's a process that will take umpteen years.

Well according to the guru of Global Warming Al Gore,it could well happen the day after tomorrow. Um,Thursday it is,then.

[johncoolj]

Well according to the guru of Global Warming Al Gore,it could well happen the day after tomorrow. Um,Thursday it is,then.

have a look at this video on the gulf stream lastest info

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b11scOHE7sU

[blitzen]

have a look at this video on the gulf stream lastest info

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b11scOHE7sU

It's just another sensationalist repeating quotes originating from Stirling's blog - nuff said!

Edited September 21, 2010 by Blitzen

[Guest]

Couldn't resist it, so here is the link to another crackpot theory!

http://www.endoftime2012.com/

[phaywarduk]

Sorry to resurrect this topic. On the whole I found the thread fascinating and thoughtful with strong attempts to analyse some of the evidence out there. I wanted to add it is unlikely a slackening of the NAC will immediately lower SST's due to the considerable body of warmth already held within the ocean. Apparently, from a theoretical point of view, a weakening of the current is more likely to have a direct effect on the jet stream. Cooling of the NAO would occur over at least a 10 year period which geologically is lightening fast. I have been speaking to a friend of mine who works in the field and there is awareness of a weakening but scientists are a very wary and conservative lot with reputation very much in mind. The preliminary data set is far too little to jump to the conclusion that the observed 'pause' in the NAD is due to anything other than natural variation in the cycles of this complex current. If the satelite imagery continues to show a stalling over the next few years and is combined with measurable cooling in the North Atlantic, then I think the stalling phenomenon will become an international issue. If I were a climatologist, the last thing I would want is to poke my head above the parapet only to be grouped with the likes of the self styled Lord or even Earl of Stirling and his crackpot ideas.

Regards,

Paul

[Fozfoster]

Sorry to resurrect this topic. On the whole I found the thread fascinating and thoughtful with strong attempts to analyse some of the evidence out there. I wanted to add it is unlikely a slackening of the NAC will immediately lower SST's due to the considerable body of warmth already held within the ocean. Apparently, from a theoretical point of view, a weakening of the current is more likely to have a direct effect on the jet stream. Cooling of the NAO would occur over at least a 10 year period which geologically is lightening fast. I have been speaking to a friend of mine who works in the field and there is awareness of a weakening but scientists are a very wary and conservative lot with reputation very much in mind. The preliminary data set is far too little to jump to the conclusion that the observed 'pause' in the NAD is due to anything other than natural variation in the cycles of this complex current. If the satelite imagery continues to show a stalling over the next few years and is combined with measurable cooling in the North Atlantic, then I think the stalling phenomenon will become an international issue. If I were a climatologist, the last thing I would want is to poke my head above the parapet only to be grouped with the likes of the self styled Lord or even Earl of Stirling and his crackpot ideas.

Regards,

Paul

sounds good to me, s**t pocked my head above the parapet, just.

[Essan]

have a look at this video on the gulf stream lastest info

Government Black Ops?

Are you sure it's not caused by the Reptilian Illuminati causing Nibiru to make the Poles Shift so that Chemtrails can make HAARP blow up the WTC so that we all have to be tattooed with an ID card? Thus proving the Zeta Reticulians are at war with the Pleiadians as to who really built the pyramids in 10,500BC? :unsure:

[cyclonic happiness]

Government Black Ops?

Are you sure it's not caused by the Reptilian Illuminati causing Nibiru to make the Poles Shift so that Chemtrails can make HAARP blow up the WTC so that we all have to be tattooed with an ID card? Thus proving the Zeta Reticulians are at war with the Pleiadians as to who really built the pyramids in 10,500BC? :unsure:

erm..? *backs away slowly*

[bobbydog]

Sorry to resurrect this topic. On the whole I found the thread fascinating and thoughtful with strong attempts to analyse some of the evidence out there. I wanted to add it is unlikely a slackening of the NAC will immediately lower SST's due to the considerable body of warmth already held within the ocean. Apparently, from a theoretical point of view, a weakening of the current is more likely to have a direct effect on the jet stream. Cooling of the NAO would occur over at least a 10 year period which geologically is lightening fast. I have been speaking to a friend of mine who works in the field and there is awareness of a weakening but scientists are a very wary and conservative lot with reputation very much in mind. The preliminary data set is far too little to jump to the conclusion that the observed 'pause' in the NAD is due to anything other than natural variation in the cycles of this complex current. If the satelite imagery continues to show a stalling over the next few years and is combined with measurable cooling in the North Atlantic, then I think the stalling phenomenon will become an international issue. If I were a climatologist, the last thing I would want is to poke my head above the parapet only to be grouped with the likes of the self styled Lord or even Earl of Stirling and his crackpot ideas.

Regards,

Paul

hi paul, this subject has interested me also for a few years. whilst i agree with most of what you say, i was under the impression that the SSTs would not cool due to a pause/slowdown of the NAD, the result would be that the warmer tropical waters would not be transported towards us as they are now causing equatorial regions to get hotter and the uk and surrounding areas to get colder, in line with other areas on the same latitude. basically creating an even temperature gradient from the equator to the north pole

[Paceyboy]

hi paul, this subject has interested me also for a few years. whilst i agree with most of what you say, i was under the impression that the SSTs would not cool due to a pause/slowdown of the NAD, the result would be that the warmer tropical waters would not be transported towards us as they are now causing equatorial regions to get hotter and the uk and surrounding areas to get colder, in line with other areas on the same latitude. basically creating an even temperature gradient from the equator to the north pole

So in essence narrowing the temperate 'comfort' climatic zones. It is this idea that would theoretically create a larger ice cap(greater arctic region).

If the North Atlantic Drift or GS has infact weakened it is quite worrying. However i dont think I quite believe it just yet. Not enough scientific agreement across the board imo.

But that could be due to not knowing time frames, general behaviour or cycles of the current over great timespans. I believe we only have a couple of centuries data on any ocean currents, if that??

All in all quite interesting.

[johncoolj]

So in essence narrowing the temperate 'comfort' climatic zones. It is this idea that would theoretically create a larger ice cap(greater arctic region).

If the North Atlantic Drift or GS has infact weakened it is quite worrying. However i dont think I quite believe it just yet. Not enough scientific agreement across the board imo.

But that could be due to not knowing time frames, general behaviour or cycles of the current over great timespans. I believe we only have a couple of centuries data on any ocean currents, if that??

All in all quite interesting.

I never new the n a c effects the jetstream

do you mean it could cause a change in the jetstream as in not coming over the uk like it use too

[Guest]

Unusual at this time of year but the fax chart of 10.10.2010, shows pretty easterlies right across the Atlantic in the norther latitudes then forecast charts show north easterlies as far as the Azores. Meanwhile it is absolutely peeing down (technical expression) at our location in southern France with a low in le Gulf de Lyon. Funnily enough it is similar in someways to the system which brought the snow on 07-08.03.2010.

[Paceyboy]

I never new the n a c effects the jetstream

do you mean it could cause a change in the jetstream as in not coming over the uk like it use too

Yes I think so. The Jetstream would flatten out and always remain further south than us. We would then be in our own zone where we get alot more continental influence. Theoretically the end of mild SWly's in winter perhaps.

[phaywarduk]

Due to the large body of warm water drifting over from the tropics, there would probably be some SST cooling over time if the NAD does stall. The big question is how much and over what time interval. Some estimates refer to 0,5 degrees of cooling while others are outragously high at 2 to 3 degrees. There is a school of thought that suggests we would never be subject to the climate of Northern Canada or Russia because they are climates occuring within large land masses. Our climate even without the NAD would still be influenced by warmth released from the oceans in winter. There is some evidence that the NAD does directly affect the JET and as Paceboy mentions above, the effect might be for the JET to track futher south leaving us exposed to more northern continental conditions. The trouble is none of these ideas are backed up by hard science and we are unfortunately left with more speculation and questions than concrete answers.

Regards,

Paul

Edited October 11, 2010 by phaywarduk

[WhiteXmas]

Due to this being unprecedented in our time I think the answers to what will happen will derive from what we experience. Ie: it may not be a case of scientists forecasting the outcome rather than a "wait and see" premise. I don't think it is as worrying as people are making out however there is no doubt that as an islan we are heavily influenced by sea temperatures therefore there is a distinct possibility that our temperatures will alter noticeably IF the NAD truly is in decline. I think the main difference we will notice is in winter as Paceboy said the Jet Stream may retreat further south meaning it would be unlikely for us to be influenced by South Westerlies during th winter months. The Republic of Ireland is heavily influenced by the Jet Stream so if this was to come to fruition we would see noticable differences in the weather they experience.

[bobbydog]

Due to the large body of warm water drifting over from the tropics, there would probably be some SST cooling over time if the NAD does stall. The big question is how much and over what time interval. Some estimates refer to 0,5 degrees of cooling while others are outragously high at 2 to 3 degrees. There is a school of thought that suggests we would never be subject to the climate of Northern Canada or Russia because they are climates occuring within large land masses. Our climate even without the NAD would still be influenced by warmth released from the oceans in winter. There is some evidence that the NAD does directly affect the JET and as Paceboy mentions above, the effect might be for the JET to track futher south leaving us exposed to more northern continental conditions. The trouble is none of these ideas are backed up by hard science and we are unfortunately left with more speculation and questions than concrete answers.

Regards,

Paul

i agree that our climate could never be the same as russia or canada as our weather is heavily maritime influenced. however, if the stopping/slowing NAD scenario were to unfold, would our climate not become more similar to iceland?

[WhiteXmas]

i agree that our climate could never be the same as russia or canada as our weather is heavily maritime influenced. however, if the stopping/slowing NAD scenario were to unfold, would our climate not become more similar to iceland?

In my opinion our winter months will experience change. I don't think it will be a full scale shift. Iceland can be warmer than us in the summer months so it cannot be compared to anythin as this is a unique situation.

[johncoolj]

In my opinion our winter months will experience change. I don't think it will be a full scale shift. Iceland can be warmer than us in the summer months so it cannot be compared to anythin as this is a unique situation.

How come we may only notice a change in winter why not summer too.

the Jet Stream may retreat further south in winter only why is that would it not be summer spring etc too would this mean more east winds in winter rather then sw

[blitzen]

I think the 'we should wait and see' theory is very sensible. There are so many conflicting opinions flying around that one doesn't know what to believe. It is also rather annoying that the relevant comparison data is impossible to access. I have attached today's update and I must say it isn't looking very healthy.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-100-small-rundate=latest

[bobbydog]

I think the 'we should wait and see' theory is very sensible. There are so many conflicting opinions flying around that one doesn't know what to believe. It is also rather annoying that the relevant comparison data is impossible to access. I have attached today's update and I must say it isn't looking very healthy.

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

i have been watching these charts since this thread began and although not dramatic, there has been a noticeable steady decline in the strength of the current. Wether or not this decline continues, remains to be seen. As you say, it would be nice to have last years data to compare it to but it is weaker compared to july (earliest comparison data available) especially around the caribbean and the gulf of mexico which apparently is where it picks up a lot of its heat

[blitzen]

i have been watching these charts since this thread began and although not dramatic, there has been a noticeable steady decline in the strength of the current. Wether or not this decline continues, remains to be seen. As you say, it would be nice to have last years data to compare it to but it is weaker compared to july (earliest comparison data available) especially around the caribbean and the gulf of mexico which apparently is where it picks up a lot of its heat

I see a poster on another weather site has e- mailed an Oceanographer who works with RTOFS asking about the stream's strength compared to last year. He is expecting a reply quite soon. Perhaps we will have a better insight then?

[phaywarduk]

Hi Blitzen, many thanks for the satelite update. I agree, its looking distressingly weak. The only comparison data we have was posted earlier in this thread between August '09 and these October '10 readings. That comparison is very worryihg as it seems to show an almost total collapse of the NAD velocity. However, I think we would need to see a much larger sample for proper comparison. I believe the Met office responded to a poster on another forum who presented this info as possible evidence of a stall. Their reply was to say it is not always easy to 'see' the flow velocity from satelite and simply repeated the mantra that there was no evidence of slowdown. It seemed an odd response to me but who knows. I, too think the 'wait and see' approach makes the most sense.

Regards,

Paul

Edited October 11, 2010 by phaywarduk

[cyclonic happiness]

FOUND IT!!!!! :lol: