The North Atlantic Current Is Gone

[Essan]

Well there's data from loads of buoys around the British Isles here - although being an NOAA site the temps are all in old money!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/United_Kingdom.shtml

No sign of any cooling that I can see!

Actually, even if the Gulf Stream/NADC switched off completely for 100 years, why would the SSTs in the English Channel be 7c below normal?

[eyeofthestorm]

Well there's data from loads of buoys around the British Isles here - although being an NOAA site the temps are all in old money!

http://www.ndbc.noaa...d_Kingdom.shtml

No sign of any cooling that I can see!

Actually, even if the Gulf Stream/NADC switched off completely for 100 years, why would the SSTs in the English Channel be 7c below normal?

Thanks for the link, bookmarked it. This kind of proves my point though. The ones in yellow are Met Office owned and the ones in red are privately owned by industry. The private data isn't available for free I dont think, but all the above appear to be fed into Netweather Extra which I pay monthly for. The Private data was showing the colder temperatures whilst the Met office owned ones were not. Which kind of leads me to think is the Met Office playing with its data? The only way to settle this is to go swimming in the sea because its all too confusing with different sources showing different data.

Edited September 14, 2010 by eyeofthestorm

[knocker]

Does anybody have any idea of the temps down towards the seabed of the Channel and the North Sea? If the figures are correct, the waters must be getting churned up in some way i.e. colder bottom water coming to the surface - Looking particularly at the difference between Brighton and Bournmouth.

Does anybody have any idea of the temps down towards the seabed of the Channel and the North Sea? If the figures are correct, the waters must be getting churned up in some way i.e. colder bottom water coming to the surface - Looking particularly at the difference between Brighton and Bournmouth.

I don't know if this is any good to you. I was going to post it in reply to another post that I can't find at the moment. I don't know of any mechanism that can cause cold deep water to warm and rise. Of course near the coasts the water will be shallow in comparison. Anyway it'sa fairly interesting diagram.

Edited September 14, 2010 by weather ship

[eyeofthestorm]

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=lv&u=http://www.tvnet.lv/zala_zeme/daba/346044-polu_sinoptiki_biede_eiropu_ar_tukstos_gados_bargako_ziemu&ei=v-2PTIrMFoKUjAePxsidDg&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CCIQ7gEwAg&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.tvnet.lv/zala_zeme/daba/346044-polu_sinoptiki_biede_eiropu_ar_tukstos_gados_bargako_ziemu%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG

Looks like this is starting to hit the European Press.

[johncoolj]

http://translate.goo...l%3Den%26sa%3DG

Looks like this is starting to hit the European Press.

Yep and theres no doubt the current has gone very weak its not really getting uk ireland or north france like it was last year

If this keeps up we will have a very cold winter and also remember the heat will go when winter hits .

You wont see much till october i would think this is why the irish sea is at normal temps for the time of year

Edited September 14, 2010 by johncoolj

[knocker]

Well seeing most are posting websites I might as well join the club albeit the site is a few months old. I for one won't be buying any long johns.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8589512.stm

[snowlover2009]

Yep and theres no doubt the current has gone very weak its not really getting uk ireland or north france like it was last year

If this keeps up we will have a very cold winter and also remember the heat will go when winter hits .

You wont see much till october i would think this is why the irish sea is at normal temps for the time of year

if it is by any means weaker than last year, then surely that gives us another good chance of a winter similar to the last or much worse. gfs last year did well in winter, by predicting all those cold spells or the whole cold winter if you like, even if it did go very OTT at times. now we seem to be seeing, some developments from gfs showing some classic winter setup, yet we are only in september.

Well seeing most are posting websites I might as well join the club albeit the site is a few months old. I for one won't be buying any long johns.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8589512.stm

they cannot even get lrfs right let alone tell if the gulf stream is slowing. there are people on here like GP etc and meteorologists such as JB who are more reliable than them. i have full confidence in what the more knowledgeable ones like GP are predicting for the autumn and winter.

[Guest]

I have not been keeping records but I gain the impression that this September is not quite as warm as the ones we have had, say over the past 10 to 15 years and in southern France this late winter, spring and early summer, I felt that the temps were slightly lower than normal, though as time progressed some hot days did develop and in August they were up to the mid 30's C which is normal.

Again looking at the temps for that area for Sept, they appear to be a tad below normal. I will be spending October over there and normally we get quite a few days up to the middle and upper 20'sC, so we will see what happens.

I suppose that if we really do regress into a little ice age I will have the option of going over there. I would expect that the frequency of winter snow would increase there, but as last March, we had a storm for a couple of days then the sun came out an the snow melted more by the power of the sun than it does in the UK which is usually by a warm front and horrible grey damp conditions.

There the roads were not salted but they did dry out by the power of the sun.

As for the house, it is well insulated with solar panels for heating the water, an air to air heat pump for heating and air con and in the case of a power failure a hefty wood burning stove with plenty of wood.

[knocker]

if it is by any means weaker than last year, then surely that gives us another good chance of a winter similar to the last or much worse. gfs last year did well in winter, by predicting all those cold spells or the whole cold winter if you like, even if it did go very OTT at times. now we seem to be seeing, some developments from gfs showing some classic winter setup, yet we are only in september.

they cannot even get lrfs right let alone tell if the gulf stream is slowing. there are people on here like GP etc and meteorologists such as JB who are more reliable than them. i have full confidence in what the more knowledgeable ones like GP are predicting for the autumn and winter.

The heading of this thread is The North Atlantic Current is gone. This is a subject for oceanographers I would have thought. I have no doubt ther are experts on here, and I bow to their superor knowledge, but predicting autumn and winter weather on ocean heat transfer (Gulf Stream) and reliability of the jet stream, plus interuption of the convergence zone is fraught with danger. My confidence is not high. Classic winter setups can be caused by other reasons. Why are you assuming last winter was caused by the weakening of the Gulf Stream? I asume your experts will tell you.

Edited September 15, 2010 by weather ship

[osmposm]

weather ship, on 14 September 2010 - 23:22, said:

Well seeing most are posting websites I might as well join the club albeit the site is a few months old. I for one won't be buying any long johns.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8589512.stm

they cannot even get lrfs right let alone tell if the gulf stream is slowing. there are people on here like GP etc and meteorologists such as JB who are more reliable than them. i have full confidence in what the more knowledgeable ones like GP are predicting for the autumn and winter.

I am at a loss to see what possible connection there is between a BBC news report of research findings on Gulf Stream flow rates published by a group of expert US oceanographers, and long-range forecasts provided in the past by the UK Met Office for BBC Weather. Perhaps you could explain?

Edited September 15, 2010 by osmposm

[Essan]

Thanks for the link, bookmarked it. This kind of proves my point though. The ones in yellow are Met Office owned and the ones in red are privately owned by industry. The private data isn't available for free I dont think, but all the above appear to be fed into Netweather Extra which I pay monthly for. The Private data was showing the colder temperatures whilst the Met office owned ones were not. Which kind of leads me to think is the Met Office playing with its data? The only way to settle this is to go swimming in the sea because its all too confusing with different sources showing different data.

So basically there's a major conspiracy invoving NOAA, the MetO, Met Eireann, the Coastguard etc to manipulate the data - and no-one else, incuding tens of thousands of swmimmers, sailors, fishermen and surfers have noticed that sea temperatures are much, much colder than they've ever been in September since the last ice age ....

Any idea what might have caused SSTs around Britain's coast to have have failed to have warmed this summer by a massive 7c compared with normal?

Edited September 15, 2010 by Essan

[blitzen]

The Polish media have obviously jumped on the 'Stirling Blog site' bandwagon. You can almost identify it word for word. I think Stirling has achieved what his website set out to achieve and that is mass hysteria! I feel it is bordering on the ridiculous now. Time will obviously tell if Stirling was right or wrong so I think we should all just sit back and wait a while.

[Methuselah]

Is it me? Or, had the NAD really disappeared, wouldn't the REAL scientific community have been onto such a 'dire' situation months' ago!

God only knows why so many people take so much of the garbage going round the Internet as gospel? Maybe it's all this 'all opinions (irrespective of their genuine validity) are always worthy of equal consideration' twaddle...

I wonder what Nostradmus's quatrains say about the matter???

[blitzen]

I wonder what Nostradmus's quatrains say about the matter???

Have a heart Pete! I am only in the middle of my second cup of coffee.

[masheeuk]

Is it me? Or, had the NAD really disappeared, wouldn't the REAL scientific community have been onto such a 'dire' situation months' ago!

God only knows why so many people take so much of the garbage going round the Internet as gospel? Maybe it's all this 'all opinions (irrespective of their genuine validity) are always worthy of equal consideration' twaddle...

There are a lot of interesting developments most of which I am still trying to learn about. The thing that saddens me is that no matter what side people take on any debate now they have to go to extremes to get their point across.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Is it me? Or, had the NAD really disappeared, wouldn't the REAL scientific community have been onto such a 'dire' situation months' ago!

God only knows why so many people take so much of the garbage going round the Internet as gospel? Maybe it's all this 'all opinions (irrespective of their genuine validity) are always worthy of equal consideration' twaddle...

I wonder what Nostradmus's quatrains say about the matter???

Well, I'm sure it would have been in scientific journals by now, or at least there would be comments on it by known scientists. People take this stuff as Gospel because they read it, after all we all know that everything we read in the papers is true

Nostradamus he say "When warm water goes away, more cod will play" or was that Confucius?

[johncoolj]

2010/11 Winter Weather Forecast

September 12, 2010Daniel SmithLeave a commentGo to commentsLast winter saw below average temperatures and heavy snowfalls for a large part of December and January, before becoming slightly milder through February. But what are the indications for this winter? Will we see a return to the Atlantic driven, mild winters? Or will the cold and snowy weather continue?

The reason last winter was so cold was due to an exceptionally negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) this meant that high pressure developed across Greenland and something known as Northern Blocking developed, this allowed freezing air to flood across Europe and over to us here in the UK. This winter? The indications are looking promising for another cold and snowy one.

Firstly, we’ll take into account the Sea Surface Temperatures or SSTs, the chart below shows us both the warm and cold anomalies

Sea Surface Temperatures Anomaly

We also have areas of blue in the Mid Atlantic, this suggests that we’re likely to see high pressure developing and building up into the Atlantic, when this happens low pressure systems get stuck in the North Atlantic and subsequently, cooler air from the Arctic heads Southwards.

Another thing to take into account is the low sunspot activity in the last 2 years or so. Historic data show that during times of low sunspot activity, the UK experiances unusually cold winters, 1962 being one of them.

The Arctic Oscillation and North-Atlantic Oscillation are other things we should take into account, however because these are more variable and can change on a day to day basis, it’s much harder to use these to help forecast more than 5-10 days out, although we’ll take a look to see how they’re doing anyway.

North Atlantic Oscillation

Arctic Oscillation

We also must take into account the fact that the Arctic has had one of the coldest summers on record, meaning we’re unlikely to have a problem with getting an embedded cold pool into place, ready to flood Southwards.

Taking all these factors, and more into account. I think we’re likely to see a generally damp and dull start to Autumn, before things begin to turn increasingly cold as we move through October and into November. I’m forecasting another cold, and snowy period of weather, particularly from the middle of November through until the middle of January, before we see the Atlantic kicking into gear again bringing some mild, stormy weather to end the second half of winter.

The Gulf Stream

I don’t think I could create this forecast without mentioning the current state of the Gulf Stream. It’s something that’s been a hot topic amongst weather forums in the last few weeks, and here’s one of the reasons why. This graphic shows what the Gulf Stream was like in September last year.

September 2009

September 2010

Winter 2010/11 Overview

So just to summarize, I’m predicting a cold start to winter. I believe the first cold spell to take hold during the second part of September with frosts becoming more frequent across the United Kingdom and early snowfalls pushing down from the North and into Scotland and perhaps higher hills in Northern England.

I expect the first half of winter to be generally cold and snowy, as cold if not colder than last year. I think it’ll be generally cold and snowy through November to the middle of January before high pressure begins to break down and the Atlantic takes over for the second half of the winter bringing spells of wet, mild and windy weather, with brief cold snaps as low pressure systems push Eastwards into the North Sea.

The oranges/reds on the image above show us where above average sea surface temperatures have developed. The blues/purples show us where below average temperatures. If you look at the Pacific Ocean, you can see a large area of dark blue and purples. This is known as a phenomena called La Nina, and it’s a cooling of the Pacific Ocean. Although not fully understood, it is believed to lower global temperatures and bring colder weather to certain areas and that usually includes the UK.

The NAO is currently forecasted to shoot up into a weak positive before slowly moving back down into a weak negative. This sudden change suggests we’re likely to see the Atlantic becoming slightly more active in the next couple of days, we’re likely to continue this unsettled and cool theme for the next week or so at least. When we have a negative NAO, we’re more likely to see high pressure developing in the Atlantic, when we see a positive NAO, we’re more likely to see low pressures developing, and in turn, turning our weather more unsettled.

The AO is currently forecast to remain in a weak negative, perhaps becoming increasingly negative during the next 5-8 days. When we have a negative AO (as seen last winter) we have high pressure developing across the Arctic where we want it then if the correct conditions present themselves, that cold air will flood Southwards towards the UK. A positive AO means we see something called the Polar Vortex, which is a system of low pressure systems across the Arctic which make it far harder to lock ourselves into a cold pattern for more than a couple of days.

And here’s what the Gulf Stream is looking like this year

If you compare the two images above you can see there has definitely been a slowdown and slight decay of the Gulf Stream over the course of the last year, and this is what has gotten so many people interested. Whether this will have any effect on the weather in the coming months is yet to be seen, however.

[Big Innes Madori]

2010/11 Winter Weather Forecast

September 12, 2010Daniel SmithLeave a commentGo to commentsLast winter saw below average temperatures and heavy snowfalls for a large part of December and January, before becoming slightly milder through February. But what are the indications for this winter? Will we see a return to the Atlantic driven, mild winters? Or will the cold and snowy weather continue?

The reason last winter was so cold was due to an exceptionally negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) this meant that high pressure developed across Greenland and something known as Northern Blocking developed, this allowed freezing air to flood across Europe and over to us here in the UK. This winter? The indications are looking promising for another cold and snowy one.

Firstly, we’ll take into account the Sea Surface Temperatures or SSTs, the chart below shows us both the warm and cold anomalies

Sea Surface Temperatures Anomaly

We also have areas of blue in the Mid Atlantic, this suggests that we’re likely to see high pressure developing and building up into the Atlantic, when this happens low pressure systems get stuck in the North Atlantic and subsequently, cooler air from the Arctic heads Southwards.

Another thing to take into account is the low sunspot activity in the last 2 years or so. Historic data show that during times of low sunspot activity, the UK experiances unusually cold winters, 1962 being one of them.

The Arctic Oscillation and North-Atlantic Oscillation are other things we should take into account, however because these are more variable and can change on a day to day basis, it’s much harder to use these to help forecast more than 5-10 days out, although we’ll take a look to see how they’re doing anyway.

North Atlantic Oscillation

Arctic Oscillation

We also must take into account the fact that the Arctic has had one of the coldest summers on record, meaning we’re unlikely to have a problem with getting an embedded cold pool into place, ready to flood Southwards.

Taking all these factors, and more into account. I think we’re likely to see a generally damp and dull start to Autumn, before things begin to turn increasingly cold as we move through October and into November. I’m forecasting another cold, and snowy period of weather, particularly from the middle of November through until the middle of January, before we see the Atlantic kicking into gear again bringing some mild, stormy weather to end the second half of winter.

The Gulf Stream

I don’t think I could create this forecast without mentioning the current state of the Gulf Stream. It’s something that’s been a hot topic amongst weather forums in the last few weeks, and here’s one of the reasons why. This graphic shows what the Gulf Stream was like in September last year.

September 2009

September 2010

Winter 2010/11 Overview

So just to summarize, I’m predicting a cold start to winter. I believe the first cold spell to take hold during the second part of September with frosts becoming more frequent across the United Kingdom and early snowfalls pushing down from the North and into Scotland and perhaps higher hills in Northern England.

I expect the first half of winter to be generally cold and snowy, as cold if not colder than last year. I think it’ll be generally cold and snowy through November to the middle of January before high pressure begins to break down and the Atlantic takes over for the second half of the winter bringing spells of wet, mild and windy weather, with brief cold snaps as low pressure systems push Eastwards into the North Sea.

Hi johncoolj,

Whilst on holiday last week, I took a drive up to Cairngorm (Mon 6/9/10) and then went up the hill in the Funicular Railway.

It was a dry partly sunny day with a strong gusty wind and the temperature was approx 15 - 17 Deg C down at the road level on the A9.

On the mountain however, the Thermometer up at the Ptarmigan was showing 8 Deg C and with the strong wind, they reckoned that it was feeling like the equivalent of -2 Deg C .

I can indeed confirm that it felt damn cold, aye and I had shorts on and had to hold on to my hat to stop it blowing off, but luckily I had sense enough to take a fleece with me though!!!

The wee guide guy at the top, who tells you what you are looking at, was well wrapped up with a proper thermal type jacket and woolly hat but his face was well Red with the cold and he was certainly feeling it!

When we mentioned to him that it was a bit on the cold side for early September, he told us how it had Snowed up there the week before (August 29th or 30th) and that it was so heavy that he could hardly see his hand in front of his face. This snow had given the mountain its first covering of the coming season.

Early winter anyone:whistling:

Big Innes.

The oranges/reds on the image above show us where above average sea surface temperatures have developed. The blues/purples show us where below average temperatures. If you look at the Pacific Ocean, you can see a large area of dark blue and purples. This is known as a phenomena called La Nina, and it’s a cooling of the Pacific Ocean. Although not fully understood, it is believed to lower global temperatures and bring colder weather to certain areas and that usually includes the UK.

The NAO is currently forecasted to shoot up into a weak positive before slowly moving back down into a weak negative. This sudden change suggests we’re likely to see the Atlantic becoming slightly more active in the next couple of days, we’re likely to continue this unsettled and cool theme for the next week or so at least. When we have a negative NAO, we’re more likely to see high pressure developing in the Atlantic, when we see a positive NAO, we’re more likely to see low pressures developing, and in turn, turning our weather more unsettled.

The AO is currently forecast to remain in a weak negative, perhaps becoming increasingly negative during the next 5-8 days. When we have a negative AO (as seen last winter) we have high pressure developing across the Arctic where we want it then if the correct conditions present themselves, that cold air will flood Southwards towards the UK. A positive AO means we see something called the Polar Vortex, which is a system of low pressure systems across the Arctic which make it far harder to lock ourselves into a cold pattern for more than a couple of days.

And here’s what the Gulf Stream is looking like this year

If you compare the two images above you can see there has definitely been a slowdown and slight decay of the Gulf Stream over the course of the last year, and this is what has gotten so many people interested. Whether this will have any effect on the weather in the coming months is yet to be seen, however.

[snowlover2009]

I am at a loss to see what possible connection there is between a BBC news report of research findings on Gulf Stream flow rates published by a group of expert US oceanographers, and long-range forecasts provided in the past by the UK Met Office for BBC Weather. Perhaps you could explain?

are you trying to be funny?

The heading of this thread is The North Atlantic Current is gone. This is a subject for oceanographers I would have thought. I have no doubt ther are experts on here, and I bow to their superor knowledge, but predicting autumn and winter weather on ocean heat transfer (Gulf Stream) and reliability of the jet stream, plus interuption of the convergence zone is fraught with danger. My confidence is not high. Classic winter setups can be caused by other reasons. Why are you assuming last winter was caused by the weakening of the Gulf Stream? I asume your experts will tell you.

it is my opinion for christ sake! i only said that if the gulf stream is weaker this year, then it will have been stronger last year, which is a possible good player for winter. bye...........

[Essan]

The Polish media have obviously jumped on the 'Stirling Blog site' bandwagon. You can almost identify it word for word. I think Stirling has achieved what his website set out to achieve and that is mass hysteria! I feel it is bordering on the ridiculous now. Time will obviously tell if Stirling was right or wrong so I think we should all just sit back and wait a while.

Just as we should likewise wait and see whether planet Nibiru will collide with Earth in 2012 or whether the Pleideans save us and beam us off to Zeta Reticuli first

I'm actually embarassed that some people on Net-Wx are taking this seriously!

[johnholmes]

I'm actually embarassed that some people on Net-Wx are taking this seriously!

I have to agree with that mate reading some of the posts above. In 'me old age I can't work out whether some are being serious or simply taking the mickey!

[osmposm]

snowlover2009, on 14 September 2010 - 23:38, said:

......they cannot even get lrfs right let alone tell if the gulf stream is slowing. there are people on here like GP etc and meteorologists such as JB who are more reliable than them. i have full confidence in what the more knowledgeable ones like GP are predicting for the autumn and winter.

osmposm, on 15 September 2010 - 04:19, said:

I am at a loss to see what possible connection there is between a BBC news report of research findings on Gulf Stream flow rates published by a group of expert US oceanographers, and long-range forecasts provided in the past by the UK Met Office for BBC Weather. Perhaps you could explain?

are you trying to be funny?

Um, no. You were suggesting, I understood, that because the Met Office's long-range forecasts produced on behalf of the BBC had not been good, we should not believe the BBC News dept's reporting of research by some US oceanographers - in both cases it is merely telling us what two other organisations have said about two different things . I repeat that I cannot see any connection between the two - unless, of course, you feel that the BBC is so misguided and corrupt that it altered both the Met Office's forecasts AND the scientists' research to fit some higher agenda. On that basis we should mistrust BBC TV reports of snow chaos on the M4, surely?

[Kiwi]

On that basis we should mistrust BBC TV reports of snow chaos on the M4, surely?

!!!! Lordy is the impact of the big switch off being felt already??

Snow chaos on the M4?... in September!!!! Why haven't I seen anything about it in the Express??

Edited September 15, 2010 by Kiwi

[MR EXTREMES]

im sorry this thread is in danger of becoming caravany.

there has been evidence that the gulf stream has lost some power but nothing to cause alarm,the story that started this is unfounded and very unrealistic and poorly expessed to a stage where alot of people on here are calling it rubbish.

i think the whole point of this thread is to try and find out whether theres any truth about this recent developement in my opion ive seen very little evidence thats convinced me its true.

but the evidence does support that there has been a reduction of 30% over decades,

but strengths rise and fall all the time and is never at one strength im not educated enough to say why either,

but know that if it had stopped then it would be the biggest story on earth and would hit the headlines,i expect the missing northern arm of the gulf stream is either down to missing data or depth of flow instead of strength.

but saying this even another weakening of the gulf stream by 20% would be enough to lower temps that little bit more 75% then it gets cold 90% or above then alarm bells should start ringing but right now theres nothing to worry about.

and in my opion winter this year will be chilly anyway so really it dont need to shutdown lol.

Edited September 15, 2010 by badboy657

[egret]

Yes there is always a danger reading lots into data we see today without knowledge of historic data and patterns of data.

I have been surprised to see 'above average' temperatures around the Maine coast (N. America/Canada) across to Newfoundland, is this connected with the warm stream heading up there rather than across the Atlantic?

If so this might signal a meaningful change which could affect us in the UK.

I actually enquired of Southampton Centre of Oceanography if they had data covering sea temperatures in the English Channel approaches and off N. Ireland for this year, 10, 20 and 30 years ago for comparison purposes.

They were unable to help but suggested a couple of possible sources. Has anyone already made such comparisons?