Christmas 2010

[Mark Bayley]

The models do seem to be trending milder (or less cold) for Christmas day.. The GFS, GEFS mean, GEM ensemble mean all seem to support this possible change to milder (less cold) conditions. Not set in stone of course, and models could be doing there usual trick of removing the cold to quickly ( I know the GFS sometimes has a habit of doing that). Its certainly something to watch though!

Edited December 11, 2010 by Mark Bayley

[claret047]

I heard somewhere that stastically it is more likely to have a white Good Friday than it is a white Christmas Day. Perhaps Mr Data or one of the other knowledgable people on here could kindly advise whether this is true or not. Also in the past have we had an occassion when there has been a white Christmas Day followed by a white Good Friday?

Thanks in advance

Edited December 11, 2010 by claret047

[clark3r]

The models do seem to be trending milder (or less cold) for Christmas day.. The GFS, GEFS mean, GEM ensemble mean all seem to support this possible change to milder (less cold) conditions. Not set in stone of course, and models could be doing there usual trick of removing the cold to quickly ( I know the GFS sometimes has a habit of doing that). Its certainly something to watch though!

makes a change lol! dont think i will ever see a white xmas in my life time down here on the south coast!

[A Winter's Tale]

I think there is a good chance of a white christmas. The models underestimate cold, so I expect the cold to last past christmas.

[Paul]

Christmas forecast just updated:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

Give Santa a shake to find out the chance of snow in your part of the country!!

[Stuart]

still lot to play for yet going be a close call this year

[Stuart]

OK my last post for today

55% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-12-12 23:30:00

Next Forecast: 2010-12-14 22:00:00

Synopsis

A slight downgrade in risk on this update. Many charts and other information tells us that an upcoming cold spell (possibly severe) is likely to end a few days just before the big day. While there maybe lying snow around in places on Christmas day, falling snow is looking less likely especially in the southern half in the UK than it did on the previous update. However saying, this there is large uncertainty about the next few days never mind the next couple of weeks. Its also worth noting that the last cold spell and last year that the cold got prolonged with the milder weather being pushed back all the time. We cant rule this out for this upcoming one despite this looking rather low for now. In summary, a cool day is expected with low pressure in control with rain or showers in the south but the risk of some wintry weather in the North, especially on higher ground. Nothing set in stone by far at the moment. Stay tuned for the latest update. Next forecast on Tuesday.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-christmas/

[Coast]

White Christmas is now a 'foregone conclusion' say forecasters who expect snow blanket to cover Britain on December 25

Britain will have a white Christmas this year with heavy snowfall on December 25 a 'foregone conclusion', forecasters said today. Bitterly cold winds from the Arctic will blanket London, Scotland, the north and the south-east in snow on Christmas Day, long-term weather predictors have said. But bookmakers were less certain, with William Hill putting Christmas snow at 3/1 in Edinburgh, Glasgow and Newcastle Holiday firms have seen a sharp increase in breaks being booked overseas because Britons want to get away from the weather. Travel Counsellors, a holiday firm, were reporting a 20 per cent increase in bookings.

A second big freeze which is expected to last into the New Year will start on Thursday after a weekend of milder temperatures allowed shoppers to go out and buy presents. Up to £2.5billion was spent on gifts over the weekend - with the average consumer spending £50 each, experts said. But families who ordered presents online will face an anxious wait to see if they are delivered in time for Christmas because of the fresh blast of snow expected to hit later this week. The Met Office are predicting 'significant accumulations' of snow and a risk of drifting because of strong winds from Thursday. Ice is likely to cause travel chaos for commuters on Friday morning as rain from the previous day is likely to freeze overnight. Jonathan Powell, a senior forecaster with Positive Weather Solutions who specialise in long-term predictions, said a white Christmas is 'almost certain'. 'After initial snow this week there will be milder air to the north and colder air to the north. The cold line will push down from the north and we will see snow,' he told the Mail Online.

WHITE CHRISTMAS ODDS 2010

9/4 - Aberdeen

3/1 Edinburgh

3/1 Glasgow

3/1 Newcastle

7/2 Belfast

4/1 Birmingham

4/1Cardiff

4/1 London

4/1 Manchester

4/1 Cambridge;

4/1 Bristol

4/1 Oxford

4/1 York

(All odds from William Hill)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1338191/White-Christmas-foregone-conclusion-say-forecasters-expect-snow-blanket-cover-Britain-December-25.html#ixzz1804ZcNVH

[summer blizzard]

Just my opinion going from the model ouputs but i think that southern England and Scotland are the more likely to have snow falling on 25th December. (based on GEM and ECWMF)

[Mr Freeze]

Ok who's going to put their head on the chopping block and give us a weather prediction for the 10 days from the 16th to the 26th December. Who's the brave one thats confident enough to give us their best attempt at a forcast.

All I want for christmas is a white blanket of snow. I'm now a big kid of 49 The last time I can remember a white christmas was in 1970. Father christmas had brought a toy gun called a Johnny Seven. I took this gun over on the green and rapidly emptied it suply of plastic bullets, my only problem these 15 bullets where white. A real bugger to try find in the white snow. I have walked that green now for 40 years and still never found one of them

Anyway I;m in North North West , little town called Whitehaven in Cumbria and were forecast snow this Thursday & Friday, bring it on I say and lets hope it snows till xmas

[Habsish]

Ok who's going to put their head on the chopping block and give us a weather prediction for the 10 days from the 16th to the 26th December. Who's the brave one thats confident enough to give us their best attempt at a forcast.

Well I predict there will be several people posting that they are in tears as they don't have any snow.

Sorry doesn't really answer your question.

H

[ZONE 51]

Now it is the icing on the cake, its not snowed on christmas day since i was tiny, i can't remember but was told by my parents how it was. other than when i was little all its done is a dusting i think and the rest being a snowing not settling and green most of them.

I would want a huge snowstorm! but in reality id be happy with snow that don't cause transport disruption for 24th to 26th so we can visit people! but enough so sledging can be achieved by those that can do it. also calm wind so trees get covered.

Edited December 14, 2010 by nimbilus

[ZONE 51]

When was their a snow covered christmas last in the SE ?

Edited December 14, 2010 by nimbilus

[ZONE 51]

Good idea- il take an (non)expert type look at the models tuesday then il be back! (:

Edited December 14, 2010 by nimbilus

[Great Plum]

I think it was probably 1981... Certainly I have never seen one... (with the exception 1981, but I was 7 months old!)

[alister_storey]

I think it was probably 1981... Certainly I have never seen one... (with the exception 1981, but I was 7 months old!)

It snowed on Christmas morning 1997. I was in Guildford at the time & drove to my Ma's in Purley. It wasn't a lot but a covering all the same!

Edited December 14, 2010 by alister_storey

[Thundery wintry showers]

1997 seems unlikely- that was a mild and very windy Christmas, many parts of N England without power following severe gales.

Since 1981,

• 1984 had wintry showers in the north-west, though no widespread lying snow,
  
• 1993 had sleet and snow showers in the east (deep snow in Aberdeen, about an inch in the Tyne and Wear area by late afternoon), while some sleety stuff worked its way down parts of western Britain with lying snow on high ground,
  
• 1995 had snow showers near the east coast and lying snow across much of Scotland & parts of Ireland, N England and N Wales from polar low Christmas Eve, exceptionally snowy in Shetland + NE Scotland + Scarborough
  
• 1996 had some sleet & snow showers in parts of eastern England from a sluggish easterly, though limited accumulations
  
• 1999 had fairly widespread sleet & snow mixed with rain showers in a strong to gale force westerly
  
• 2000 had scattered sleet & snow showers in parts of E Scotland and NE England from a sluggish easterly, though no widespread accumulations
  
• 2001 had scattered snow showers, with more substantial snowfalls late in the day across N & W Wales in a developing NNW'ly
  
• 2004 had sleet & snow showers in the west, widespread snow cover by the end of the day in much of Scotland, Ireland, NW England
  
• 2009 had lying snow in many places, especially Scotland & N England, left over from falls earlier in the month
  

[Stationary Front]

we had dusting of snow on the ground from shower early hours of xmas morning (West Mids/Warks border) xmas 2001

[Coast]

White Christmas for Britain almost certain say forecasters

Britain was last night braced for a second Arctic blast of snow with forecasters saying a white Christmas is now almost certain. Large parts of the country including London, the South East, the North and Scotland are set to be blanketed with snow over the festive period. After some respite in the past week, the Met Office says Britain will be plunged back into a deep freeze from Thursday. The whole country can expect a prolonged period of snow which is likely to last into next week. Eight inches are predicted for the North and six inches will cover the South over the weekend. Temperatures will fall to -15C (5F) in the North by Friday with bitter 50mph winds from the North Pole making it feel even colder.

Jonathan Powell, a senior forecaster with Positive Weather Solutions, said snow was set to keep falling – and a sprinkling on Christmas Day was “more or less a foregone conclusionâ€.

He added: “I think you will see more than a few snowflakes. The potential is there for a covering or at least a dusting.†Panicking bookmakers responded last night by slashing odds on a white Christmas. A William Hill spokesman said: “We’re expecting more snow and should that run over into Christmas Day we could get hammered for more than £1million. “One punter is looking at a five-figure payout if Newcastle sees snow on Christmas Day.†William Hill’s odds of Christmas snow in the city how now been slashed from 8/1 to 5/2 which is one of the shortest prices ever this early in December.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/12/14/britain-set-for-white-christmas-115875-22782403/#ixzz184e5hcSD

[Stuart]

That Great to hear coast hope it come off

[rich1]

That Great to hear coast hope it come off

Journalists are famously ignorant about the weather and Positive Weather Solutions are a touch 'fly by night' and are/will be seeking more hits on their webpages so dont take it as concrete

but I still feel its a possibility, the cold air will never be too far away, and the Met Office seem quite keen for the spell to linger

[Stuart]

ECMWF will start to pick up xmas forecast Tomorrow

[Paul]

Latest Christmas forecast now online, and no we're not agreeing that a white christmas is 100% likely!!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Thanks for that update paul i am just keeping anything cross

[A Winter's Tale]

I think Positive Weather Solutions are insane for saying a White Christmas is certain. I bet it won't happen and instead everywhere in the UK has a green christmas, gale force winds, pouring with rain and 8c temperatures. By the looks of things, the Atlantic will arrive on the 23rd. Unless high pressure holds on or a Scandi high develops, I see this being a disaster for PWS. Also, the gullible newspapers think this blast will cover the whole UK. They also are more excited about this one than the last blast. I only think remote, exposed areas of the UK will get any lying snow on Christmas Day. I doubt it that it will be a Widespread event and even here in Glasgow I feel I might miss out on this one. Perhaps we might get more snow when the Atlantic arrives and melts it all again.