2011 Stormchase Chat & Banter

[Cookie]

Im sorry mate Tornado outbreak is reserved for T2

I will save you some pics

if tornadoes formed on sheer enthusiasm alone, tour 2 would see them every day

[John Hanrahan]

Im sorry mate Tornado outbreak is reserved for T2

I will save you some pics

Pat mate, I'm 100% there will be a major Kansas outbreak on May 31st tour 3. Best we be in different cars if it happens that day on the way back to Dallas.

:lol: :lol:

[Paul Sherman]

Pat mate, I'm 100% there will be a major Kansas outbreak on May 31st tour 3. Best we be in different cars if it happens that day on the way back to Dallas.

:lol: :lol:

Lol

You know what John that very scenario might well crop up, Seeing as I am the lead Chaser you can ride in my car on the last day seeing as that is your Birthday, I am sure Pat can get a lift back with Paul Michaelwaite as he is not that fussed with Storms anyway and is Staff/Driver anyway

It does not bode well though as 7 of the last 10 (31st May's) Have had Severe Outbreaks and Tornadoes, Last Years being SE Colorado's Memorial Day Campo Tornado.

Paul S

[dogs32]

Pat mate, I'm 100% there will be a major Kansas outbreak on May 31st tour 3. Best we be in different cars if it happens that day on the way back to Dallas.

:lol: :lol:

:w00t: Surely this cant happen twice can it....more luck winning the lottery..lol..well I hope!

Just watched storm chasers and have to say the best yet with out a doubt...

ps..I didnt want to say the truth as some might get upset...But my dreams are forcasting huge out break's between T2/T3..

3 dreams now and counting

LOL@Paul...mmmm Im not impressed :lol:

Edited January 10, 2011 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

ps..I didnt want to say the truth as some might get upset...But my dreams are forcasting huge out break's between T2/T3..

3 dreams now and counting

You dont want to see the Pm I have had from that dude (Murcieboy) that is predicting the Massive February Storm (The guy that predicted the November Storm) He has given me a Date,Time,Location of the biggest Tornado of the year, and yes it falls within 1 of our 4 Tours

Do we believe him though :lol:

[dogs32]

You dont want to see the Pm I have had from that dude (Murcieboy) that is predicting the Massive February Storm (The guy that predicted the November Storm) He has given me a Date,Time,Location of the biggest Tornado of the year, and yes it falls within 1 of our 4 Tours

Do we believe him though :lol:

On this occasion Paul we have to say yes to T3(MY BET)

:smiliz19:

I seen a few reports of talks about a similar pattern to 2008 could emerge..

they didnt say this last year...so must be Nina OR SOME SIMILAR SET ups emerging

Edited January 10, 2011 by dogs32

[Dorsetbred]

OK ENOUGH I've not paid for the trip and all youz guys are sucking the tornado's out of my trip before I go.

Now ENOUGH of this "It'll happen in Tour 2 -3 -4 ", IF it does I'm demanding a huge cost reduction.

Come on guys for me even 100% improvement on last year's touch downs means just 2 tornado's for T1

"Hey buddy can you spare me a dime tornado

Edited January 11, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[Tom Lynch]

I was trying to find a video where we came across large hail and then remembered which day it was. A day a lot of people would like to forget. We sat on the outskirts of Greensburg all afternoon and moved off to intercept the storms moving in from the south. It was a good thing that we did.

Tom

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks for posting that Tom

At 3Mins on the Clip it shows just what an EF5 Can do with sustained Inflow winds of 50-60mph getting sucked into the Supercell and they were Hot Winds with temps at 80f, we were to the East of it and it was like a Discoteque with the Lightning constant.

Come on guys for me even 100% improvement on last year's touch downs means just 2 tornado's for T1

"Hey buddy can you spare me a dime tornado

Lol

Hard man to please it seems, the average is about 2-3 years to see your first picturesque Tornado, Just ask Nathan (Gorky) with 2 Barren years in 2008 & 2009, I have known people that went 4-5 years without even seeing even a brief rain glimpsed Tornado.

Not every year is like 2003,2004 & 2010 so you might have to be a little bit more realistic, but rest assured like all other years if the Storms are there we will be on the best ones and it's up to the Atmosphere wether they drop Tornadoes not Me or Netweather :lol: God that sounded like a disclaimer

I do think this year will be similar to 2008 though which will favour quite a few Outbreaks

Paul S

[dogs32]

Our first Twister of the year

POSSIBILITIESONLY

Edited January 11, 2011 by dogs32

[DubWeatherAddict]

I would check you have not paid for your ticket 10 times.

Dont get me worrying!!!

Edited January 11, 2011 by DubWeatherAddict

[TornadoJo]

OK ENOUGH I've not paid for the trip and all youz guys are sucking the tornado's out of my trip before I go.

Now ENOUGH of this "It'll happen in Tour 2 -3 -4 ", IF it does I'm demanding a huge cost reduction.

Come on guys for me even 100% improvement on last year's touch downs means just 2 tornado's for T1

"Hey buddy can you spare me a dime tornado

Trust me - the storms are amazing. A tornado is just a bonus! Im sure you can tell from everyones picture the colours in the sky are spectacular and the structure of the clouds HAVE to be seen to be believed.

And as if thats not enough you can always resort to laughing at me hiding under my coat. Apparently thats quite amusing too?

In my opinion (and I'm no pro) I think last year early May was unusually quiet for tornadoes. We all remember the May 4th 1999 tornado I'm sure.

Also I think early season is good for fewer but stronger longer track tornados and the later in the season you get they are more frequent but more brief. I read that somewhere but can't remember where. Also the early season is 'usually' more south (texas/oklahoma) and as you get to late may june moves north into the Dakotas.

Please do correct me if I'm wrong as I'm still learning.

Jo

-x-

[dogs32]

STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES TO CONTINUE

INTO THE SPRING OF 2011. BIAS-CORRECTED SST FORECASTS FROM THE NCEP CLIMATE

FORECAST SYSTEM(CFS) INDICATE THAT THE NINO 3.4 ANOMALY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH

FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS NEAR -1.5 C TO AROUND -1.0 C BY THE FMA SEASON AND

REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT INTO THE SUMMER SEASON. MOST STATISTICAL

MODELS FOLLOW THE CFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF 2011 BUT PREDICT SST

ANOMALIES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, WITH NEAR NORMAL SSTS PREDICTED BY THE

SUMMER. THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS A FAIRLY EVEN MIX OF MULTI-YEAR AND SINGLE

YEAR LA NINA EVENTS, SO AT THIS POINT THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATIONS OF THE

ENSO STATE PAST MID 2011. A CONSOLIDATION FORECAST OF THE CFS, A CONSTRUCTED

ANALOG TOOL, THE MARKOV MODEL AND THE CCA FORECASTS FOR NINO 3.4 SSTS SHOWS

ANOMALIES BELOW -.5 C CONTINUING TO AROUND AMJ 2011, SUGGESTING CONTINUED LA

NINA CONDITIONS INTO THE LATE SPRING. THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL FORECAST

INDICATES THAT SSTS ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, FAVORING ENSO NEUTRAL

CONDITIONS BY MID 2011.

QUICK Q

if its going to fall into neutral nina by Summer(early I think)...what does that entail for our chances of severe Storms....

good or bad.

anyone know

Edited January 11, 2011 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

Same as 2008 Pat I Think

2008 : La Nina

2009 : Neutral to El Nino

2010 : Neutral to La Nina

2011 : La Nina

[dogs32]

Same as 2008 Pat I Think

2008 : La Nina

2009 : Neutral to El Nino

2010 : Neutral to La Nina

2011 : La Nina

thx...was getting slightly worried...now I am not :smiliz19:

PS..John Happy Camper...

Going to check my flight to see if I can change it....but dont get your hopes up....I will enquire tonight on phone..with AA

if THERE IS A BETTER DEAL

EDIT,,

?

JUST to add the above forecast is due for a update on the 20th Jan I think?

I wont say no to 2008 :w00t:

:rofl:

Edited January 11, 2011 by dogs32

[Dorsetbred]

In my opinion (and I'm no pro) I think last year early May was unusually quiet for tornadoes. We all remember the May 4th 1999 tornado I'm sure.

Also I think early season is good for fewer but stronger longer track tornados and the later in the season you get they are more frequent but more brief. I read that somewhere but can't remember where. Also the early season is 'usually' more south (texas/oklahoma) and as you get to late may june moves north into the Dakotas.

Please do correct me if I'm wrong as I'm still learning.

Jo

-x-

It was noticeable even with "Pat Lightning Timmer" on T3 last year, he failed to suck out more than one touchdown. And yet in T2, he blew everybody away with his powers.

Certainly no complaints on storm generation from last year, and the navigation of the team to get us where we needed to be even though Tyson Darling was keen to see otherwise

Edited January 11, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[dogs32]

It was noticeable even with "Pat Reed Timmer" on T3 last year, he failed to suck out more than one touchdown. And yet in T2, he blew everybody away with his powers.

Certainly no complaints on storm generation from last year, and the navigation of the team to get us where we need to be even Tyson Darling was keen to see otherwise

Really laughing here :smiliz19:

This satisfied me for a long time :w00t:

I thought you might like to see this again Quentin :lol:

Edited January 11, 2011 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

Certainly no complaints on storm generation from last year, and the navigation of the team to get us where we needed to be even though Tyson Darling was keen to see otherwise

God I forgot about Captain Darling - He was a right Jobsworth was'nt he.

Don't worry Quentin, if the Models are showing big Outbreaks at the Start of May I expect you to be on this thread rubbing Pat's Nose in It.

Little Stat for Early May nd remember 2005 & 2006 were classed as 2 of the worst years for chasing since the Modern Winter

2005 : Chases on the 1st, 3rd, 7th, 9th and 10th May

2006 : Chases on the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 9th May

2007 : Chases on the 1st, 4th (Greensburg EF5) 5th (High Risk) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th

2008 : Chases on the 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th May (Stuttgart EF3)

2009 : Chases on the 29th April, 1st, 2nd, 5th and 7th May

2010 : Chases on the 29th April, 1st, 2nd, 6th May

Plenty there for Early May and even the Barren years of 2005, 2006 and 2009 Yielded

Paul S

1ST MAY LOOKS GOOD FOR 2011

[Dorsetbred]

God I forgot about Captain Darling - He was a right Jobsworth wasn't he.

Don't worry Quentin, if the Models are showing big Outbreaks at the Start of May I expect you to be on this thread rubbing Pat's Nose in It.

Little Stat for Early May nd remember 2005 & 2006 were classed as 2 of the worst years for chasing since the even larger teapot

2005 : Chases on the 1st, 3rd, 7th, 9th and 10th May

2006 : Chases on the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 9th May

2007 : Chases on the 1st, 4th (Greensburg EF5) 5th (High Risk) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th

2008 : Chases on the 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th May (Stuttgart EF3)

2009 : Chases on the 29th April, 1st, 2nd, 5th and 7th May

2010 : Chases on the 29th April, 1st, 2nd, 6th May

Plenty there for Early May and even the Barren years of 2005, 2006 and 2009 Yielded

Paul S

1ST MAY LOOKS GOOD FOR 2011

Paul, if it all turns good, I'll rub more than "Pat Lightning Timmer's nose" in it.

Armed with a new High Def video cam, watch out Mr PLT your time has come

PS Some nice 2010 info on the outbreaks can be found here. good reading for the past years analysis

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/2010

Edited January 11, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[dogs32]

Quentin knows Im pulling his leg as he does with me.

I wish every one the best truly...BUT F5 for my tour...cant get fairer than that

who ever the Gods favour

Quentin you have a new camera?

anyone else got any thing new?

I havent,but could do with a new laptop...but will have to wait

Edited January 11, 2011 by dogs32

[Supercell]

Any chance we could try an intercept ?

Doesn't have to be a major tornado. F2 will do.

[Gorky]

Whilst I'm sure you mean no ill, wishing for an 'F5'/EF5 is pretty bad as the Fujita scale is a damage scale and the only way you'll probably end up seeing an F5 is if a violent tornado hit's a lot of properties and causes a ton of damage. Wish for a violent tornado over open plains on land owned by an over insured farmer or better - state owned land - would be a little less offensive Of course it then would only be rated ef2-ef3 maximum based on vegetation damage. I'm sure that's what you are getting at but just thought I'd point it out as a few people might get upset at that sort of talk. The Bowdle tornado could easily have only been rated EF2-EF3 had it not hit those transmission towers when most would agree it probably had wind speeds capable of doing damage in the EF5 range for isntance. It still sucks that that tornado clipped a farm property just north of Bowdle as it almost avoided all structures during it's life span...

[Paul Sherman]

Any chance we could try an intercept ?

Doesn't have to be a major tornado. F2 will do.

By Intercept do you mean A La TIV Or Red Shoe ??

If so the Aurora Tornado on the 29th May 2008 was Rated EF2 (136mph Winds) And that was a pretty bad experience, the RFD Winds were as strong as the 1/2 Mile Wide EF2 itself, So I would not be happy with that. Getting within 1/4 Mile is good enough for me and you get to see a lot more of the Structure of the Storm, What Reed and Sean are doing gives you No aspect of the beauty of the Storm.

I 100% agree with Nathan about the EF5, Seeing as Most EF5's hit Populous Areas it really is not nice to see Kids rag dolls dangling from Trees and people standing by their belongings. Something over the Prairies churning away is much better.

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

Btw Countdown starts tomorrow

100 days today

[DubWeatherAddict]

Quentin knows Im pulling his leg as he does with me.

I wish every one the best truly...BUT F5 for my tour...cant get fairer than that

who ever the Gods favour

Quentin you have a new camera?

anyone else got any thing new?

I havent,but could do with a new laptop...but will have to wait

I bought myself a new camera, its a slr type point n shoot , but a good one! ... The New Lumix Fz-100 ( With full HD Recording ) . Can take up to 11 shots per second at full quality (14mp )

Tempted to get a labtop...should i???????????????????