November CET

[BornFromTheVoid]

7.5C to the 21st

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 4.9C. Minimum for tday is 2.8C and the maxima look just over 7C so a drop back to 7.4C by tomorrow looks likely.

After that, going by the 06z GFS we'll be at 7.0C to the 24th, 6.6C to the 26th, 5.9C to the 28th and 5.6C to the 29th. If the models are correct for the 30th, we'd be at 5.3 or 5.4C before corrections! Pretty amazing drop...

[Stu_London]

06z is still progging the last week of November to come in at -1C, comfortably the coldest last week of November in CET history.

Potentially with some snow cover towards the end of that period, the minimas in semi-rural areas could be even lower than shown.

[Stu_London]

06z is still progging the last week of November to come in at -1C, comfortably the coldest last week of November in CET history.

Potentially with some snow cover towards the end of that period, the minimas in semi-rural areas could be even lower than shown.

LOL - 12z is suggesting the last week will now average -1.8C

5.1C before adjustments if it verifies.

[AderynCoch]

(24-30th November)

1923 = -0.29

Also:

1787 = -0.03

1904 = -0.17

They're the only sub-zero ones I could find, which would make 1923 the benchmark. All this makes a potential last week of -1C look jaw-dropping.

[Cymro]

Also:

1787 = -0.03

1904 = -0.17

They're the only sub-zero ones I could find, which would make 1923 the benchmark. All this makes a potential last week of -1C look jaw-dropping.

I personally don't think it will verify as extreme as that.

[suffolkboy_]

In a way I'm surprised there haven't been many sub-zero last weeks of November. This time of year we can often have anticyclonic periods with freezing fog. When this doesn't clear it's not uncommon to have an ice day, or something close to it.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Yes it is surprising.

Especially when you factor in the lowest Nov CET. I am sure it is either 3.2 or 2.5c?

[AderynCoch]

Especially when you factor in the lowest Nov CET. I am sure it is either 3.2 or 2.5c?

2.3C (1782)

[Isolated Frost]

I'd say 5.5C right now...

[damianslaw]

Will be interesting to see how much of a difference the CET will be the months end compared to 4th November. I said it would be a month which got progressively colder but I had not anticipated what is about to happen.

Will likely go down as one of the classic switcharound months..

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Will be interesting to see how much of a difference the CET will be the months end compared to 4th November. I said it would be a month which got progressively colder but I had not anticipated what is about to happen.

Will likely go down as one of the classic switcharound months..

I'd say. For the first half of the month I worried my guess was far too low. For the second half of the month I'm worrying my guess is far too high.

[Weather-history]

Will likely go down as one of the classic switcharound months..

Not sure about that. Its similiar to 1996, which had a really mild start and ended up below average but hardly anyone remembers the very mild start which was exceptionally mild, even milder overall than what happened with this month.

Interestingly, according to Philip Eden's figures, the first half of this November was only 0.1C above average, so its not very mild first half, cold second half as was the case with 2005.

Edited November 23, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Stu_London]

GFS 0z suggests the last week will be -0.6C

As expected as things come to the very reliable timeframe, they are getting moderated a little.

[Stu_London]

CET 7.4C to the 22nd

Small chance we will hit 7.2C tomorrow but 7.3C more likely

06z more bullish about cold in the last week with something like -1.4C progged

That would leave us at 5.2C before adjustments at month end

[kold weather]

Hmmm I personally suspect the actual last week average maybe a touch higher then the GFS is expecting, still very cold but I'd say somewhere close to the 0C mark, maybe a little over or a little under...either way possibly an exceptionally cold last week to November.

[Stu_London]

Hmmm I personally suspect the actual last week average maybe a touch higher then the GFS is expecting, still very cold but I'd say somewhere close to the 0C mark, maybe a little over or a little under...either way possibly an exceptionally cold last week to November.

I suspect you may be right, although there remains the potential for mins to get down very low (lower than -3C/-4C as GFS shows) if early snowcover was achieved.

Even if we do achieve the coldest last week in CET history, we will struggle to get into the coldest 100 novembers.

Edited November 23, 2010 by Stu_London

[TonyH]

Seems we are not going to see extreme November minima, -10c or lower in the CET zone?

[damianslaw]

Odds on for a sub 6 degree CET month I say. Probable finishing mark somewhere close to 5.5 degrees, very much depends on cloud cover at night, daytime maxima will struggle in much of the CET zone to climb higher than 2 degrees from Friday onwards.

[BornFromTheVoid]

7.3C to the 23rd.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 5.2C. Minimum for today is -1.2C and maxes were around 5C, so a drop to 7.1C for tomorrow looks about right.

Going by the 12z GFS, after that we'll be at:

6.8C to the 25th

6.5C to the 26th

6.3C to the 27th

6.0C to the 28th

5.8C to the 29th

5.6C to the 30th

5.5-5.6C after correction looks best at the moment to me.

[Stu_London]

CET 7.1C to the 24th

Current projection based on 06z is 5.3C to 5.5C before adjustments.

The last week of November looks like coming in just over 0C at the moment. Not a record but miles lower than anything seen in the last 50 years.

[Weather-history]

Past cold last weeks to November for the CET mean

1774: 1.8

1776: 2.6

1782: 0.8

1787: -0.4

1788: 2.4

1789: 2.5

1801: 2.5

1804: 2.8

1807: 0.3

1813: 2.0

1815: 1.2

1816: 2.5

1840: 2.1

1844: 2.5

1840: 2.0

1851: 1.5

1862: 2.4

1874: 2.9

1875: 1.3

1878: 2.2

1879: 1.2

1884: 2.4

1890: 0.2

1891: 2.3

1904: -0.2

1910: 2.1

1915: 0.8

1919: 2.4

1923: -0.3

1925: 0.8

1947: 2.0

1952: 0.5

1969: 1.3

1973: 1.8

1977: 2.7

1978: 2.1

1985: 2.4

1989: 1.9

1993: 2.2

[Weather-history]

Philip Eden's Manley CET is 6.4C up to the 25th

Edited November 26, 2010 by Mr_Data

[SteveB]

Philip Eden's Manley CET is 6.4C up to the 25th

That's a fair bit lower than the hadobs 7.1c

[Stu_London]

Now 6.8C to the 25th

Yesterday was 0.8C

Last night was -3.1C

Each day between now and the end of the month should see a drop of 0.2C or 0.3C

[Optimus Prime]

CET to the 25th is 6.8c.

to the 26th 6.5c

27th 6.2c

28th 5.9c

29th 5.7c

30th 5.4c

Manley likely to finish around 5.1c.