November CET

[Isolated Frost]

Below average is certain here, we're currently 0.3C above average, and projected to be 0.6C below before the cold spell, 2C below looks possible here...

[The PIT]

Below average is certain here, we're currently 0.3C above average, and projected to be 0.6C below before the cold spell, 2C below looks possible here...

Cough Cough 0.9C above average although I agree at the present time it looks like another below average month coming up.

Once so rare now back to being common.

[Isolated Frost]

Cough Cough 0.9C above average although I agree at the present time it looks like another below average month coming up.

Once so rare now back to being common.

You got a chesty one aswell, ey?

Last below average November here was in the 90's (I forget when), and we were slightly above in 2005, so this certainly is a rarity!

[Gavin P]

Down to 8.1;

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

I think I'm still just about in play with my 5.9, but I'll probably be relying in downward corrections.

Edited November 17, 2010 by Gavin P

[Stu_London]

CET is now 8.1C to the 16th

The next 5 days look like averaging about 5.5C which would give us a CET at the 22nd of 7.4C (although I think GFS might be undercooking the maxes a bit, so I wouldn't be suprised to see it a bit higher).

Thereafter it looks a bit colder (albeit still FI). Below is a list of possible outcomes for the period 23/11 - 30/11 and the effect that would have on the monthly unadjusted CET figure (assuming 7.4C to the 22nd)

23/11-30/11 = 0C then CET = 5.4C

23/11-30/11 = 1C then CET = 5.7C

23/11-30/11 = 2C then CET = 6.0C

23/11-30/11 = 3C then CET = 6.2C

23/11-30/11 = 4C then CET = 6.5C

23/11-30/11 = 5C then CET = 6.8C

based on the current output, I would expect most days in that period to come in around 2C-3C - therefore sub 6C still remains a possibility, although I'd be happier if I had a guess just over 6C

Down to 8.1;

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

I think I'm still just about in play with my 5.9, but I'll probably be relying in downward corrections.

I'd say your guess is very much in play Gavin

[Gavin P]

I've got everything crossed Stu.

[Cymro]

My guess of 6.2 might be in then had a poor few months on the guessing!

[The PIT]

Well if the latest forecast is to be believed the fall should stop and possibly a slight rise into the weekend. GFS doesn't agree so we shall see.

[Gavin P]

Well if the latest forecast is to be believed the fall should stop and possibly a slight rise into the weekend. GFS doesn't agree so we shall see.

It'll probably depend on whether Friday and Saturday see good spells of sunshine or we fog up.

[kold weather]

I suspect the range between say 6.2-6.7C is the most likely to come off, the GFS is probably still underdoing maxes and mins in this easterly set-up this week...but either way I do think the set-up is condusive for another below average month...indeed the pattern is somewhat similar to what happened in November 2005 which had a very mild start followed by a pretty significant cold spell towards the back end of the month which was enough combined with an anticyclonic cold spell after the 15th to do the job...

[Stu_London]

CET to the 17th - 7.9C

Well if the latest forecast is to be believed the fall should stop and possibly a slight rise into the weekend. GFS doesn't agree so we shall see.

Today looks the warmest day for a while since and a while to come and we might get a CET of 7C ish

Not quite sure how we get rises from that but as ever time will tell

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the 12z GFS we should be at 7.8C to the 19th, 7.6C to the 21st, 7.4C to the 23rd and 7.0C to the 25th.

That would leave us needing the last 5 days to average 4.0C to reach the 61-90 figure of 6.5C. I'd say anyone guessing around 6.0C is looking best at the moment.

[kold weather]

The last 2-3 days still seem a little uncertain though at the moment to be really confident of anything below say 6.7C IMO, some of the ensembles for example bring back something of a WSW/SW flow again for the last few days which would lead to a few days where the average will be up at 6-9C and could even see a slight rise...

IMO thats not the most likely solution though and I do think we will stay cool/cold till the end of the month. Either way below average looks just about certain, esp once adjustments have been made.

[BornFromTheVoid]

7.9C to the 18th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 7.3C. Minimum for today is down as 3.2C and maxima look around 9C so a drop to 7.8C for tomorrows update.

After that going by the GFS 06z, we'll be at 7.7C to the 20th, 7.6C to the 22nd, 7.2C to the 24th and 6.7C to the 26th!

Edited November 19, 2010 by BornFromTheVoid

[Stu_London]

7.9C to the 18th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 7.3C. Minimum for today is down as 3.2C and maxima look around 9C so a drop to 7.8C for tomorrows update.

After that going by the GFS 06z, we'll be at 7.7C to the 20th, 7.6C to the 22nd, 7.2C to the 24th and 6.7C to the 26th!

Very much FI, but following on from that the 06z suggests the last 4 days might not average above 0C

5.8C before adjustments if it were to come off

[Isolated Frost]

6.3C here at Washington, should be 6.4C to the 19th (midnight tonight).

5C should be around what we get, possibly around 4.5C. And of course slightly lower at Durham Observatory!

Such a cold November!

[damianslaw]

The CET will drop like a stone next week , 0.3 degrees will be wiped off it day by day from Tuesday I suspect, average means probably in the 0-2 degree range and possibly lower depending on cloud cover, clear skies will mean very cold nights. Sub 6 degrees looks quite likely quite a turnaround from the start of the month.

[Isolated Frost]

The CET will drop like a stone next week , 0.3 degrees will be wiped off it day by day from Tuesday I suspect, average means probably in the 0-2 degree range and possibly lower depending on cloud cover, clear skies will mean very cold nights. Sub 6 degrees looks quite likely quite a turnaround from the start of the month.

If it ends up under 6C, I'll probably end up sub 4C, which is 0.15C below Durham's December Average!

[Weather-history]

Maybe worth looking at the list of the coldest last week of November for the CET

[Snowyowl9]

It`ll be interesting to see how cold nights will be during this cold spell,mid/late november 2005 was the coldest for nights here since 1993,inversions mainly from HP.

Daytime late november max 2 years ago,coldest since 1996 to be fair,too close to call...1993 otherwise.

Edited November 20, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[kold weather]

Yeah the last 7 days of November is starting to look a little exceptional on the models, November 2005 is the benchmark for cold in the last decade or so in late November, providing the easterly flow doesn't produce too much cloud and prevent mins from dropping far enough its looking like we may well be as cold or colder as that last week of 2005...

Still this is going to be one real impressive drop, sub 6C looking probable now...unreal!!!

[AderynCoch]

Maybe worth looking at the list of the coldest last week of November for the CET

Here's some I've picked out for comparison:

(24-30th November)

1782 = 0.77

1807 = 0.29

1890 = 0.19

1915 = 0.79

1923 = -0.29

1925 = 0.79

1952 = 0.49

Some of the more recent ones:

1985 = 2.44

1993 = 2.16

2005 = 2.96

[kold weather]

I think the easterly may just produce a little too much cloud for mins to get low enough to seriously challenge some of the lowest averages, but if we were to get a couple of clear nights with the cold flow aloft we could well get down towards 0-1C mark which would indeed be exceptional...

Could we have 2 exceptional cold spells in one year?! (1-10th Jan is regarded as exceptional as it was the coldest in +100 years)

[Don]

Oh well, looks like my monthly CET prediction will end up being too high yet again!

[BornFromTheVoid]

7.8C to the 19th (7.75)

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 5.8C. Todays minimum is 3.3C and maxima should be around 7C so 7.6C by tomorrow is most likely.

Going by the very cold 06z GFS, we'll be at 7.5C to the 22nd, 7.1C to the 24th, 6.6C to the 26th and 6.3C to the 27th.

If we can reach 6.3C by the 27th and have the last 3 days average 0C we will be on 5.7C by months end, before adjustments!