November CET

[Isolated Frost]

7.8C to the 19th (7.75)

http://hadobs.metoff..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 5.8C. Todays minimum is 3.3C and maxima should be around 7C so 7.6C by tomorrow is most likely.

Going by the very cold 06z GFS, we'll be at 7.5C to the 22nd, 7.1C to the 24th, 6.6C to the 26th and 6.3C to the 27th.

If we can reach 6.3C by the 27th and have the last 3 days average 0C we will be on 5.7C by months end, before adjustments!

I'd say between 6C and 6.5C look the best IMO, but sub 6C is very possible looking at the 06Z GFS.

I think I'll get around 4.5C here at Durham..

[Cymro]

7.8C to the 19th (7.75)

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 5.8C. Todays minimum is 3.3C and maxima should be around 7C so 7.6C by tomorrow is most likely.

Going by the very cold 06z GFS, we'll be at 7.5C to the 22nd, 7.1C to the 24th, 6.6C to the 26th and 6.3C to the 27th.

If we can reach 6.3C by the 27th and have the last 3 days average 0C we will be on 5.7C by months end, before adjustments!

It's looking up to be one of the most drastic contrasts a month has seen IMO in a long time. However we s houldn't underestimate what cloud could do in the CET zone regarding mins. But with the wind veering more NEly than Ely then we have a good chance to avoid this. I guessed 6.2 and a few days ago I was thinking that I had it nailed, I can't believe it's likely going to be lower than that

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd say between 6C and 6.5C look the best IMO, but sub 6C is very possible looking at the 06Z GFS.

I think I'll get around 4.5C here at Durham..

I'd stick with what I said the other day, anyone guessing around 6.0C has the best shot at winning, either way, both of our guesses look unlikely at this stage!

It's looking up to be one of the most drastic contrasts a month has seen IMO in a long time. However we s houldn't underestimate what cloud could do in the CET zone regarding mins. But with the wind veering more NEly than Ely then we have a good chance to avoid this. I guessed 6.2 and a few days ago I was thinking that I had it nailed, I can't believe it's likely going to be lower than that

I actually try to factor in the tendency in the GFS to have minima too low at that kinda range. If I was to take the GFS as being entirely accurate, then we'd more likely be at 6.1C by the 27th, with the 25th - 27th averaging below 0C!

[Weather-history]

Some of the more recent ones:

1985 = 2.44

1993 = 2.16

2005 = 2.96

This will surprise people. The coldest last week of November for the CET mean in the last 30 years is none of the above.

It was 1989 with 1.9

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree it will come as a surprise to many- I certainly wouldn't have considered 1989 as a contender- but looking at the synoptics I can see why, it had a brief polar incursion on the 24th/25th with a few wintry showers for the east and then inversion cold under an anticyclone.

[kold weather]

EVery chance that figure is beaten this time round with indications that it stays cold throughout till the end of the month, so could see something pretty special for the time of year soon!

[Snowyowl9]

There looks to be little wind with this major cold greenland high which is in itself for the end of november unusual to say the least,with the chart I`m looking at now(it`s last winter come early)

So light winds like last winter means very low temps,and clearing skies as it`s more N and NE-ly and no straight east wind to bring cloud.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 12z would have us at 5.9C to the 28th! Sub 5.5C in with a shout!? :lol:

[kold weather]

Also what are the lowest daily mins recorded for the last week of November?

Because if we get good snows in day E.Scotland/E.England and then a weak high set-up aloft towards the end of the month that would lead to some really bitter temps, wouldn't surprise me if come close to some daily min records even.

[Weather-history]

Also what are the lowest daily mins recorded for the last week of November?

.

24 -14.8 1993

25 -15.0 1952

26 -13.7 1904

27 -14.4 1904

28 -12.3 1977

29 -17.8 1912

30 -20.9 1985

[TonyH]

24 -14.8 1993

25 -15.0 1952

26 -13.7 1904

27 -14.4 1904

28 -12.3 1977

29 -17.8 1912

30 -20.9 1985

Surely those are safe? Perhaps the 28th could go though.

[Optimus Prime]

The 12z is a pretty cold run. Average for the 20th - 30th comes in at 0.9c! There are quite a few days with widespread -2c maximum towards the end and a few places down to -13c.

The CET by the 30th would be 5.2c before adjustments. (Probably 4.9c after)

So a possiblity of the 3rd month, if very unlikely being more than 2.0c below normal in a 12 month period.

[damianslaw]

Surely those are safe? Perhaps the 28th could go though.

Many of those apart from the 30th would be under attack if we see those deep cold uppers slack winds and clear skies over deep snow cover in the scottish highlands - -15 degrees possibly.

[kold weather]

With snow on the ground the 28th of November would very likely have a good shot at falling if the current models progs occur.

[Weather-history]

Autumn 2010 CET looks like its going to be below the 1971-2010 average. September and October anomalies cancels each other out, which leaves November.

Autumn 2008 was below the 1971-2000 average by 0.2C

If November ends up less than 6, it could end up being the coolest autumn since 1993.

Edited November 21, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Snowyowl9]

Scrap my last post about light winds,we are now looking looking at a much stronger NE-LY,so nighttime on low ground not so cold as if there was no wind,but daytime maxes are looking bitterly cold records look to be broken for november maxes.

Snow aswell,coldest november since 1993 lookin likely.

[Isolated Frost]

Autumn 2010 CET looks like its going to be below the 1971-2010 average. September and October anomalies cancels each other out, which leaves November.

Autumn 2008 was below the 1971-2000 average by 0.2C

If November ends up less than 6, it could end up being the coolest autumn since 1993.

Very interesting that. After a really cold Winter, a below average (slightly) Spring, and now a below average Autumn, only summer bucks the trend!

Will the 2010-11 winter count towards the 1981-10 values, or the 1991-20 values?

[kold weather]

I believe December 2010 will count to the 81-10 values and Jan will be the first month for the next values...

Should be able to get close to 6C, esp once we get adjustments, should be enough given the sustained nature of the cold.

[BornFromTheVoid]

7.6C to the 20th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 5.3C. Minimum for today is 3.7C and maxima look just over 6 so a drop back to 7.5C by tomorrow.

After that, going by the 06z GFS we'll be at 7.2C to the 23rd, 6.7C to the 25th, 6.2C to the 27th and 5.9C to the 28th!

If it continues the way its shown in the lower resolution part of the run, we'd be around 5.3C by months end...

[Stu_London]

7.6C to the 20th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 5.3C. Minimum for today is 3.7C and maxima look just over 6 so a drop back to 7.5C by tomorrow.

After that, going by the 06z GFS we'll be at 7.2C to the 23rd, 6.7C to the 25th, 6.2C to the 27th and 5.9C to the 28th!

If it continues the way its shown in the lower resolution part of the run, we'd be around 5.3C by months end...

Agree with your analysis based on raw output of the 06z GFS. I came up with 5.3C too.

It does suggest a mean of -1C for the period 24.11.10 to 30.11.10 which would be (or very close to) the coldest last week of November in CET history. As much as the models keep confounding me by not downgrading and still bringing these conditions ever into the more reliable timeframe, I would still be amazed to see cold that severe in the last week of November.

I would now say that sub 6C is very much odds on, whereas yesterday I would have rated it about 50/50. Will post on the annual CET thread also but would add that sometime in the first 2 weeks in December, a rolling annual CET of sub 9C is starting to look like a serious possibility.

[bobbydog]

looks like my 7.4c is out of the window now

[Stu_London]

looks like my 7.4c is out of the window now

It's toast

Along with my 6.8C punt

[BornFromTheVoid]

It's toast

Along with my 6.8C punt

And my 6.8C! Which 10 days ago was looking pretty good, if on the cool side...

[kold weather]

Adjusted figure looks like highly likely to be below 6C, unadjusted figure probably will end up below 6C as well from this point on looking at the models.

Pretty impressive, certainly every chance this November ends up as the coldest since 1993, has to beat November 1996 which got 5.9C, seems more then possible that is beaten. Amazing turnaround!

[TonyH]

Indeed a massive turnaround from very mild to very cold, and the coldest for almost 20 years...