Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

[Wilks]

Really odd today, The sky is a kind of blue colour and there's a massive orange circle in it. what's going on?

[Nick L]

Absolutely gorgeous day today! Cool and sunny - it's probably the first wall-to-wall sunshine day I've seen for weeks.

[gottolovethisweather]

test

[Polar Bear]

Heres a copy of my latest thoughts from the new thread:

Evening all

This post could have been very short and summed up with the headline "limpet high"!

In an effort to try and provide some interest regarding the models lets start with the GFS which perhaps provides a modicum of interest and looks plausible.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1741.png

We can see here the high gets far enough west to allow the influence of that troughing over Scandi. Working within the current teleconnections thats a possibility.

It's not just how far north and west the high can get but the angle of the jet through Scandi thats important.

The ECM this evening decides to bore us all into submission with high pressure throughout and not even doing anything remotely interesting with it, so it's decided not to dangle any carrots this evening, I'm sure those will be back tomorrow!

Working within the parameters set by the overall guidance and the general trend of the winter so far I think we have several options on the table upto 240hrs:

1.The ECM trend, basically high pressure meandering around, less amplified and never moving into a more favourable position.

2.The GFS trend with the high edging far enough away to bring in a weakish continental flow into the UK, especially se areas.

3.The high edging far enough nw to allow a colder flow into the UK with the jet cutting back sw'wards and some snow showers into the se and perhaps eastern areas.

In terms of percentages on those three options.

1.45%

2.40%

3.15%

In terms of the high deciding to leave the UK, this is very unlikely, the continued lower heights over the Med act as a mechanism to prop the high up.

I expect much will be written in the forum about the prospects for February with headline grabbing, freeze, mild mush etc however I think its just too early to say what will happen there.

If you look at just the teleconnections it doesn't look that great but I think model watching all these years has taught me one thing, you can have so many background factors hinting at one thing and you often end up with something altogether different, its worked in the past where the forum breaks out into despair when all those cold factors ended up delivering a big fat zero, it's easy to assume that it never works the other way but it certainly does.

Let's see what the models do when they finally decide its time to wave goodbye to the limpet high whenever that might be!

METO radar showing a large white blob that looks to be from Basingstoke to Newbury and I would think heading for Reading. As that is the highest level they show for rain which is a downpour then I would expect a lot of localised flooding in the area.

It is looking and sounding very unpleasant outside here at the moment and we are only showing as heavy.

So much rain this month we shouldn't have any hosepie ban in the summer as our rain comes from underground aquifers in the chalk downs and they must be pretty full now.

Woo hoo I am the first to post today! Wonder if any of you are out there tonight?

Well yes there was some flooding - I didnt see or hear the rain as I was fast fast asleep... the rain probably made my sleep deeper...anyway I know we had flooding as the route to Brighton through Basingstoke to the M3 was flooded in parts and teh Berkshire radio was talking about traffic problems as a result of it in the area....hence it took me 3 hours to get there...

Alot colder I see today and I believe alot colder tomorrow so GTLTW is right in his posts earlier. god bless him. Wonderful bright sunny day today in Brighty, just a shame I was stuck in the office all day...

It is such a shame that that persistent rain wasnt snow.......I can but dream and please I know it is abit of a bottomless statement but let me dream on the IF ONLY.....

By the way has anyone seen Nick Sussex's post on the model discussion thread...I have added it above as a quote..I cant work out any other way of doing it...

Edited January 19, 2011 by Polar Bear

[Polar Bear]

Woo hoo I am the first to post today! Wonder if any of you are out there tonight?

Well yes there was some flooding - I didnt see or hear the rain as I was fast fast asleep... the rain probably made my sleep deeper...anyway I know we had flooding as the route to Brighton through Basingstoke to the M3 was flooded in parts and teh Berkshire radio was talking about traffic problems as a result of it in the area....hence it took me 3 hours to get there...

Alot colder I see today and I believe alot colder tomorrow so GTLTW is right in his posts earlier. god bless him. Wonderful bright sunny day today in Brighty, just a shame I was stuck in the office all day...

It is such a shame that that persistent rain wasnt snow.......I can but dream and please I know it is abit of a bottomless statement but let me dream on the IF ONLY.....

EDIT ::: hello everyone is any body there? I see today no more posts added.......

By the way has anyone seen Nick Sussex's post on the model discussion thread...I have added it above as a quote..I cant work out any other way of doing it...

[coldfingers]

Hi Polar Bear, I think that as it is now well and truly summer weather, ie, two days of sunshine down here, then most of the 'coldies' seem to have gone into aestivation.

Was today as sunny in Brighton as it was in Bognor? Glorious sunshine all day here and my daughter wasn't the only idiot in a tee-shirt.

By the way, not a lot colder here, a max of 7.2C and in the sunshine feeling a lot warmer.

Edited January 20, 2011 by coldfingers

[snowdog]

Feels really cold here today.Temp was 2C earlier but has now dropped to 0.6C according to my weather station.It is however lovely and sunny so I'm not complaining!Hope we get another shot of some snow before the winter is done!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Why is the temperature dropping to 0c at midday when the sun is out~?!

[slb97]

Evening all, hope everyone is well even if the weather is quite unexciting. I'm very sad right now as a good friend passed away yesterday so it could be snowing blizzards and I probably wouldn't notice. I will go out this weekend and try to appreciate whatever the weather as we just don't know what's round the corner. Take care all x

Edited January 21, 2011 by slb97

[Dorsetbred]

Oh, did I get moaned at this morning.

Friend of mine out for an early morning cycle ride, down came the sleet, followed fairly quickly by rain.

Here we had a couple of minutes sleet before it turned to rain.

[flyer]

Evening all, hope everyone is well even if the weather is quite unexciting. I'm very sad right now as a good friend passed away yesterday so it could be snowing blizzards and I probably wouldn't notice. I will go out this weekend and try to appreciate whatever the weather as we just don't know what's round the corner. Take care all x

Sorry to hear that slb very sad.

All the Best

Flyer

[coldfingers]

Evening all, hope everyone is well even if the weather is quite unexciting. I'm very sad right now as a good friend passed away yesterday so it could be snowing blizzards and I probably wouldn't notice. I will go out this weekend and try to appreciate whatever the weather as we just don't know what's round the corner. Take care all x

Hi slb, so sorry to hear about your loss, I reckon your way of coping by going out and appreciating what there is around us to enjoy is a very good idea.

Hope we get plenty of sunshine for you this next week as things never seem so bad to me when it is sunny.

[Polar Bear]

Hi slb, so sorry to hear about your loss, I reckon your way of coping by going out and appreciating what there is around us to enjoy is a very good idea.

Hope we get plenty of sunshine for you this next week as things never seem so bad to me when it is sunny.

Hay slb, I haven't been on the forum of late mainly work n things but popped in to see how things are with all. I was saddened and am sorry to hear of your recent loss.

Like cf I wish u sunshine this week. Am told I think it may be just that tomorrow albeit a little chilly and there was talk if a few flurries in se on friday. Whatever it does I hope u take if easy. Pb. Ps sorry for awful sentences am sending this by iPhone which I still haven't mastered...

[Polar Bear]

Okay then, a briefish summary as how I see the weather developing over the next TWO WEEKS.

THE MAIN HEADLINE IS FOR NO MORE DOUBLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR ANYONE IN THE CSE REGION AFTER 17TH JANUARY UNTIL AT LEAST THE 31ST JANUARY

A. In general terms HIGH PRESSURE will dominate the weather from 18th January through to 23rd January at least.

B. After the 23rd January a change in the synoptic pattern SHOULD accomodate a NORTHERLY/NORTH-EASTERLY/EASTERLY wind flow until the end of the forecast period. ***

*** Of note, there is an OUTSIDE CHANCE of a brief NorthWesterly occuring MAINLY IN THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD between the TWO SPECIFIC TIMESPANS as above, possibly into the last week of January but this I feel at this stage is highly unlikely.

Ok it's really in FI I suppose at this stage, but I would predict after experiencing temperatures within the general range of 5-8c (near normal) across the region in part A, part B will possibly be another headline grabber as temperatures WILL be much more condusive for SNOW by then.

Hello all if you are out there?.....HELLOOOO????

I thought with the mention of snow flurries I thought youd be all back on here chatting away and giving your thoughts on the outlook ahead. maybe you are on a different thread and I havent noticed, or maybe I said something wrong?

Anyway I heard the weather report tonight and it reminded me of GTLTW's post not so long ago.....as you can see from above he wasnt that wrong...

Is if as you all expected and more or not?

Would love to hear from you and hop you are all very well.

PB

[coldfingers]

Hi Polar Bear, i am still around and lurking but find it hard to get excited about any precip in the next couple of days as it is showing very light which usually means nothing for Bognor.

However I am hoping everyone else away from the coastal strip will at least have a chance to see a few flurries. I must admit to being a trifle diappointed that that is all that most are likely to see, just snow flurries.

For me, I am happy with what we had in December so am just happy to see a bit of colder weather, even some frost would be a welcome change from this too warm (in my opinion) winter weather.

Regards, CF

(and hoping slb is coping OK.)

Edited January 26, 2011 by coldfingers

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks again PB .

Yes my post 308 has been pretty much "on target" since I issued it on the 14th. Actually the most accurate part of the forecast was in terms of the temperatures I predicted, not specifically the weather pattern.

As for the next few days, tonight's latest grab is already showing some wintry precipitation out there so WE MAY GET LUCKY tonight or even tomorrow with a stronger flow? :wacko:

I'll attempt to do an update in the next few days as to how I think February may develop.

Wintry Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 26, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Polar Bear]

hello CF and GTLtW

Pleased you are both are ok, and I kind of know what you mean about the weather....although your post as I say GTLTW kinda kept me going....

so any wintry precipitations for you last night? CF Am sorry to ask you in that as well - i suspect you will be like here in Brighton. I have just stuck my head out of the winter and is does feel mild with a slight chill, but very dry last night. I cant be bothered to look at temps nearby as I fear if I leave this posting the wifi will drop from the B&B.

Whatever happens today I hope you have a great day. And GTLTW I look forward to hearing your thoughts on February. ....(I cant believe jan is almost over. Where does the time go? )

Bye for now mon amigos

PB

SLB - hope you will be back on here soon and are ok.

EDIT:: Just heard that apparently at Gatwick it is currently snowing..and had a quick squizz at temps and ooh looks a bit chilly overnight in Newbury.....laters peeps. x

Edited January 27, 2011 by Polar Bear

[gottolovethisweather]

A quick post to say it's snowed and there's a dusting here in Newbury. Also some evidence of snow on the radar to the southeast too.

Ok, it's a very miniscule dusting but with expectations kept low then this dusting is certainly something.

Yippee.

Snowy Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 27, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Polar Bear]

A quick post to say it's snowed and there's a dusting here in Newbury. Also some evidence of snow on the radar to the southeast too.

Ok, it's a very miniscule dusting but with expectations kept low then this dusting is certainly something.

Yippee.

Snowy Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Thanks GTLTW ..

So you were right heh?even down to the lightness ..Nought here in Brighton I dont think..havent popped out yet.

Shame I am not in Newburey this morning - a nice light dusting a new camera and I am up early today..I could have nipped out and taken some photos! ....

Damn

PB

[lettice]

just had a quick and very light sleet shower in gosport

[coldfingers]

Hello all. Nothing here but grey skies I am afraid. Good to have temperatures down at a more seasonal 3C currently.

Actually I will be pleased to see cold and dry weather for a while as all the rain has left areas of the park a very muddy mess with the poor Spring bulbs struggling to send up green shoots from the quagmire.

Nice to hear some got a slight covering today and maybe they will get a little more to top up later today. Here it is too warm for anything to settle anyway.

[Dorsetbred]

Light snow seen in Poole around 9am

[cazbym]

Ditto Farlington - cold as well!!

[Dorsetbred]

Looks as though Portsmouth is set to receive a decent sized shower in not too distant future

[Stormyking]

We had light snow falling most of the morning here, was a nice suprise but didnt do anything really but it was continuous light snow at times too