Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

[sclarke]

Another dull cloudy day here, 3C after dropping to 1C last night, no snow in any forecasts at all

i'd keep and eye on the ''event'' coming in from the west for Monday, if our temps drop over the next few days due to the NE wind then it may push west enough to give us something to talk about.

[coldfingers]

It has been a bitterly cold day today. The Max temp was 3.1C and currently 2.5 but with a F6 wind gusting F7 N/NE wind it has felt evil today. One gent down town (and not that old either) had a very balding head with very short cropped hair and was heard to remark, "That wind is giving me really bad pains in my head." So tempting to tell him to buy a wooly hat!

Off now to look what Monday's possible event is all about.

[coldfingers]

UGH!! Just realised we have a gale Force 8 warning with it rising to Force 9 for a time. With these low temperatures that isn't going to be pleasant.

Oh well, my own fault for complaining about the boring weather on the last page.

[SunnySouthCoast]

i'd keep and eye on the ''event'' coming in from the west for Monday, if our temps drop over the next few days due to the NE wind then it may push west enough to give us something to talk about.

What like the rain we got on Monday?

[Slippery When White]

What like the rain we got on Monday?

I'm new to all this so forgive me if I am missing something obvious but....

I thought we needed a min thickness of 528 to even stand a chance of getting snow? I have just looked at the fax charts for Monday and the dam line is nowhere near us, it is over near Scandinavia, so where is all this talk of snow from the west coming from and how could it come about given the set up?

Hoops

[coldfingers]

I'm new to all this so forgive me if I am missing something obvious but....

I thought we needed a min thickness of 528 to even stand a chance of getting snow? I have just looked at the fax charts for Monday and the dam line is nowhere near us, it is over near Scandinavia, so where is all this talk of snow from the west coming from and how could it come about given the set up?

Hoops

You will soon learn hoops that a lot of wishful thinking goes on in these threads. Sunny South Coast knows well that to suggest something could be rain rather than snow almost amounts to sacrilege and some like to bury their heads in the sand and hope against reason that what they wish will be fulfilled. I must say it doesn't often happen on the CS thread but some of the regional ones can become a bit of a bears den at time.

You are correct, unless the models change by Monday there is no chance of anything but rain.

[Rustynailer]

I bet the models change by Monday, they will hint where the next colder spell comes from, I guess North. I am still waiting for the "big one" :w00t:

Russ

[slb97]

Evening all,

I'd like a raging easterly with constant PPN producing nothing but snow. Well unfortunately nothing like that is on the cards so ho hum. Anyway, I'm off to more northerly parts tomorrow for Christmas. No snow forecast at the moment but there is lying snow so I'll have a white Xmas of sorts hopefully and it'll be very cold (near Buxton). Have a great Xmas everyone! :smiliz19:

[Slippery When White]

You will soon learn hoops that a lot of wishful thinking goes on in these threads. Sunny South Coast knows well that to suggest something could be rain rather than snow almost amounts to sacrilege and some like to bury their heads in the sand and hope against reason that what they wish will be fulfilled. I must say it doesn't often happen on the CS thread but some of the regional ones can become a bit of a bears den at time.

You are correct, unless the models change by Monday there is no chance of anything but rain.

Thanks Coldfingers, I think I understand the rules now and I will expect snow until something different falls from the sky!

I have been reading the forecast model forum recently and was quite surprised at the level of hostility/excitement/arguments (take your pick) about the model forecasts in FI (I really hope I have used that abbreviation correctly as a newbie).

At least it is nice friendly fun on here as I think us southeners know that despite the promise of the white stuff we will sometimes be left dissappointed!

cheers

Hoops

Edited December 23, 2010 by hoops

[SunnySouthCoast]

I'm new to all this so forgive me if I am missing something obvious but....

I thought we needed a min thickness of 528 to even stand a chance of getting snow? I have just looked at the fax charts for Monday and the dam line is nowhere near us, it is over near Scandinavia, so where is all this talk of snow from the west coming from and how could it come about given the set up?

Hoops

Which is exactly why I suggested we would see snow, paricularly here on the coast.

[katemart]

I will expect snow until something different falls from the sky!

That's the ticket.

No hopes for the low out west of Ireland then? Last BBC forecast I saw, this afternoon, said there was a possibility of it colliding with the cold...

[Mark Neal]

Hello aint been online all day, we had a snow flurry this afternoon here in Oxford : From 13:15-14:00, lightest of flakes but was snow none the less.

Temperature hasn't got above 1.2c all day and is now at -0.7c with D.P -2.6c under starlight clear skies..

Enjoy, Christmas.. Happy Xmas Eve

Mark Neal,

Headington,

Oxford

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello all.

I believe the email below (by Snowingman) copied from the MOD thread is a fair summation of the next week or so, so please have a good read.

............** Models tinkering again **** .......................

The latest GFS models show less of atlantic more of High Pressure influence across the country in the coming 2 weeks.

My take on the evolution pattern

1. Somewhat milder weather moving across most parts (except SE quadrant) from Mid boxing day through to 28th Dec.

2. HP to East and South building - bring back colder air to all parts by 30th Dec

3. Dry, cool and cloudy through to New Year

4. Signs of the HP moving and building to our NW - Opening door to Northerlies

5. **MAJOR** repeat opportunity for Split POLAR vortex to drop across us early in New Year approx 3rd Jan - this should be more intense than our experience last week - Bringing FRIGID Air to ALL PARTS - Major SNOWFALL/Massive Disruption for the beginning of the new year

I end my reporting on a very optimistic note - We are entering the COLDEST part of the winter cycle - the INCREDIBLE start to the winter SHOULD give us a head start with regards to future cold..Personally - great times ahead....

Merry Christmas to one and all!! :smiliz19:

I have in particular highlighted his 5th point as I STRONGLY AGREE WITH THIS POINT OF VIEW AT THIS STAGE. To 2nd his view I stand by my post 282 in the stratosphere thread in terms of the first week in January. THIS PERSONALLY WILL be our next period to GET EXCITED ABOUT other than the perishing cold nights expected and frontal muck event come the 26th/27th December.

Those folk who are clinging onto their snow for now, enjoy it and it WILL be back before we've had time to settle down again in the new year. :smiliz19:

This winter won't be over until Susan Boyle (no offence to the fans!) starts singing.

Best Wishes and Happy Christmas but take care all.

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 24, 2010 by gottolovethisweather

[SunnySouthCoast]

Of course that is just their guess as to what may happen, with a large dose of wishful thinking thrown in too...

[coldfingers]

Of course that is just their guess as to what may happen, with a large dose of wishful thinking thrown in too...

I like the wishful thinking and will carry on wishing but will keep your realistic attitude SSC and remind myself it is at the moment just wishful thinking. Far to FI to get excited yet.

However.... I will be watching the charts closely when it comes into reliable time frame. For now I am far too busy to waste time chart watching.

[Slippery When White]

I still don't see it myself, but the METO have just issued a heavy snow and strong winds warning for SW England on Monday (issued yesterday ) and Tuesday (turning to rain).

Odd call looking at the charts, but interesting.

Edited December 24, 2010 by hoops

[Isolated Frost]

Merry Christmas to you Central Southerners, have a brilliant day of crackers, presents, BBC TV, family gatherings, the Feast and of course the Cold & Snow!

[Cymro]

Would like to spread a bit of christmas cheer here from the Welsh thread and as we say in Welsh

Nadolig Llawen a Blwyddyn Newydd Dda

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year

Edited December 24, 2010 by adamjones416

[Snowstorm1]

Merry Christmas All ! Im dreaming .... Im having a white christmas just like them ones I used to know :smiliz19:

[snowdog]

Christmas day won't stop Snow dog from posting! come on you snow!

[Dorsetbred]

Snow in the south, come on, Ive just arrived in Glasgow from Poole, and it was hissing down here with clear snow. Geez if these guys in the fridge can't get snow what chance do us Southerners stand

Edited December 25, 2010 by Dorsetbred

[wormster33]

Brighstone -6 C now, intermitent freezing fog around the Island

[Rustynailer]

-3.2C here been an ice day today max temp -0.2C :smiliz19:

Merry Christmas everybody.

Russ

[Rustynailer]

Errrm, where am I :wacko: :w00t:

Why is it called Boxing day? :smiliz34: Well it went down to -6.4C around 0600Z to 0700Z this morning, here and also the same tem at Brightstone and Newport our Island capital. Currently 0C here. The sun is out it is slightly cloudy with high level stuff.

Got the feeling I am going to over indulge again today :w00t:

Cant wait for the next cold attack, "the big one"

I hope for a true "Beast from the East" sometime this winter too, well, may aswell wish for that, we have had everything else...

If it carries on people will write books about it like the 87 storm and the winter 62-63 etc, the start has been amazing.

Right more food etc...

Russ

Edited December 26, 2010 by Rustynailer

[SunnySouthCoast]

Low of -2C here overnight, but already up tp 4C, the end of the cold snap is here...