Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

[Dorsetbred]

So I figure the only thing we can discuss is the amount of rainfall.

Down here we've seen 13.3mm in the last two days, and more on the way tomorrow, will we make the 25mm mark before the end of the week.

Temps did take a recent drop now at 3.9°C.

Somebody walked in today and said 2-5cms of snow tomorrow, and he then asked me why I was rolling around on the floor ROFL.

I said you've been watching the Met Office forecasts

Thereby begineth the first lesson, take yea little notice of Met Office weather warnings unless graineth of sand be holdeth.

Thereby endeth the first lesson,

[slb97]

So I figure the only thing we can discuss is the amount of rainfall.

Down here we've seen 13.3mm in the last two days, and more on the way tomorrow, will we make the 25mm mark before the end of the week.

Temps did take a recent drop now at 3.9°C.

Somebody walked in today and said 2-5cms of snow tomorrow, and he then asked me why I was rolling around on the floor ROFL.

I said you've been watching the Met Office forecasts

Thereby begineth the first lesson, take yea little notice of Met Office weather warnings unless graineth of sand be holdeth.

Thereby endeth the first lesson,

LOL - the advisories for our area have gone now as expected too. It was cold today but at least it stopped for rush hour getting home. Can't wait for the next batch of boring water from the sky

[Nights King]

So I figure the only thing we can discuss is the amount of rainfall.

Down here we've seen 13.3mm in the last two days, and more on the way tomorrow, will we make the 25mm mark before the end of the week.

Temps did take a recent drop now at 3.9°C.

Somebody walked in today and said 2-5cms of snow tomorrow, and he then asked me why I was rolling around on the floor ROFL.

I said you've been watching the Met Office forecasts

Thereby begineth the first lesson, take yea little notice of Met Office weather warnings unless graineth of sand be holdeth.

Thereby endeth the first lesson,

I have been trying to explain just that to people at work! The updates and warnings for southern half of country have a been a joke at times.

[coldfingers]

LOL - the advisories for our area have gone now as expected too. It was cold today but at least it stopped for rush hour getting home. Can't wait for the next batch of boring water from the sky

Terrible day with lots of heavy rain and localised flooding on the roads. Around Chcihester was a lot of water laying on the roads. But then there is always a lot of water laying on the roads around Chichester!! One day they may sort out the drainage there........ but not in my lifetime. :lol:

[SunnySouthCoast]

Had around 17mm of rain here since last night.

[iowpompeylee]

mild for us all now!! next week looks like a scorcher!! high pressure sat right over us! dont think we will get snow for another 4 weeks yet!!

[Polar Bear]

I have been trying to explain just that to people at work! The updates and warnings for southern half of country have a been a joke at times.

hello there

I agree with you although some none not so up and with it on weather collegues have picked up on the free and liberable give out like no tomorrow warnings that the Metoffice give. Particularly that "heavy rain" shouldnt be a warning. Then started a debate that well it is needed for driving etc and to excercise caution but it was deduced that maybe though the warnings symbols need to be rethinked. Maybe like Typical English Weather; heavy rain be warned; Not so typical south east weather; snow; watch out no matter how much falls; and Unusual weather for us southerners; More than 1mm snow so this will be serious......

I was quite impressed that they thought it was inappropriate levels of warnings....wonder if netweather has had more people sign up this winter as a result of all this action ...

Back to the weather like SLB and CF rain rain and rain today clearing this evening to be followed by some drop in temps...havent checked the numbers yet though....

[gottolovethisweather]

This winter is something I have never witnessed before and my clearest memories are of miserable mild murk complete with flu-ridden work colleagues and relatives saying will we ever get any cold frosty weather.

WELCOME TO THE HISTORIC WINTER OF 2010/11 :smiliz34: :lol::ph34r:

And guys n gals Just how much more snow can you put up with before it becomes a pain in the nether regions. Personally a long time before I'm bothered, am I bothered NO!

Historic Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Hello fellow CSE'rs DO YOU REMEMBER THE POST ABOVE FROM GTLTW. Note the bits in RED HIGHLIGHTS.

Well the first part underlined in the post above is sadly coming to fruition BUT how long will the zonality last? The gulf stream driven atlantic lacks any real vigour so in spite of a few days in these parts having some perceived WARMTH, I SEE NO CAUSE FOR ALARM as the proper cold will return.

In fact I see the next few days panning out like this by interpretation of the Fax Charts (paying particular attention to the 528dam line at certain timescales) and afterwards a blend of all the model output/the ensembles and a dose of gut feeling, cycles and statistical likelihood. ha ha

Here goes then.

Tomorrow A thoroughly wet day on the whole again and temps may nearly max at double-digits on the coast with only 5-7c inland, below average once again. However!

Saturday 8th - mild overnight from Friday but generally a cool down as the day progresses as winds veer to the NW. A Max early on of double-digits in places.

Sunday 9th - 4-7c generally but possibly wintry showers at times at first!

Monday 10th - 6-9c generally so AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT BEST

Tuesday 11th to Thursday 13th January is the WARMEST PERIOD , could reach 12/13c in quite a few places but much cooler at night if cloud clears.

Next Friday (14th) onwards - IMHO there is a likelihood of a continuation of the above trend BUT A GRADUAL COOL DOWN towards the next Friday (21st January) onwards, Happy Birthday GTLTW on that day.

So plenty of weather to come and more atypical of A NORMAL PRE 2008 WINTER PATTERN. :excl: :excl: :excl: Some weakish zonal flow from NW and at times SW, so in summary Windy at times, Milder at times, Cooler at times, some frosts.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

ps! I think the 2nd part I underlined in the original post (post 2 on this thread) is what a lot of people have been thinking of late so THEY ARE WELCOMING THE MILD WITH OPEN ARMS (MAD LOT!).

Edited January 6, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Dorsetbred]

Plenty of clear snow falling here.

Sorry, it's as good as it gets for the foreseeable future.

[slb97]

Plenty of clear snow falling here.

Sorry, it's as good as it gets for the foreseeable future.

Great news! Just looked at the radar and we're lucky that it seems to have been more westerly in nature otherwise my pending journey on the M27 would not be fun! It's mega heavy so those that see the transient snow will certainly be happy! At least it's Friday and this time tomorrow I'll still be asleep

[Caroline Weymouth]

Torrential Rain here with wind been raining since the early hours.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Rain overnight & early this morning, now stopped & is currently 10.1C! Will it get to 12C today??

The Atlantic has kicked back into normal service now & we are back to average conditions that we would expect at this time of year, no real cold & no real warmth (with the exception of a day or two next week). I can't personally see us having another severe cold snap down here now, certainly nothing like we saw in December & statistically cold starts to winter usually end with milder weather. We may get the odd colder spell of course, but there is nothing at all in the 'pipeline' for the forseeable future.

[Crockel]

Rain overnight & early this morning, now stopped & is currently 10.1C! Will it get to 12C today??

The Atlantic has kicked back into normal service now & we are back to average conditions that we would expect at this time of year, no real cold & no real warmth (with the exception of a day or two next week). I can't personally see us having another severe cold snap down here now, certainly nothing like we saw in December & statistically cold starts to winter usually end with milder weather. We may get the odd colder spell of course, but there is nothing at all in the 'pipeline' for the forseeable future.

I wouldn't sign off from the Forums just yet. Whilst this week coming looks wet, warm (ish) and windy the general trends look like a cooling down again from mid month onwards. I think the trouble we have is we were seriously spoilt in late November and through December. Looking at the long term average we normally see the greatest number of days with lying snow in February. Only a couple of years ago we had heavy snow in April (admittedly it only lasted the day).

So don't put the sledge away yet- mine is still on standby and will see some more action I'm sure before this winter is out!

Lee

Edited January 8, 2011 by Crockel

[SunnySouthCoast]

I wouldn't sign off from the Forums just yet. Whilst this week coming looks wet, warm (ish) and windy the general trends look like a cooling down again from mid month onwards. I think the trouble we have is we were seriously spoilt in late November and through December. Looking at the long term average we normally see the greatest number of days with lying snow in February. Only a couple of years ago we had heavy snow in April (admittedly it only lasted the day).

So don't put the sledge away yet- mine is still on standby and will see some more action I'm sure before this winter is out!

Lee

The thing is with daylight hours increasing & the suns strength gaining, February here is usually bad for snow as if it does fall it either doesn't settle or it lasts only for a day.

I don't own a sledge, never get much use of one round here!

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Anything in the pipeline for us? im assuming not as theres no one here!

Is there not even another cold spell coming our way?

[Joneseye]

Anything in the pipeline for us? im assuming not as theres no one here!

Is there not even another cold spell coming our way?

A big fat nopesy!

My advice is give it a week before looking again and u never know. In the mean time enjoy the wind and rain....

Ps 1000 posts... Only took me 5 years..

Edited January 9, 2011 by Joneseye

[gottolovethisweather]

Anything in the pipeline for us? im assuming not as theres no one here!

Is there not even another cold spell coming our way?

See my post 283 on this thread as this is still how it still stands for the moment! where's winter gone.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[*Stormforce~beka*]

That's a little excessive lol!

[coldfingers]

Very strong wind with F7 gusting to F8 and lashing down with rain. Temp 7C .

Such a shame as i didn't have tiime to get my lovely dry wind-blown washing in before the rain beat me to it. <_< Ah well, back to our usual winter weather for a while yet I think. See you all in a weeks time if things look any better, for cold that is.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello all. Welcome to the Mild Spell thread for CSE.

A post from me confirming how mild it is now (10.2c Air Temp, Dewpoint 10.2c, 38.6mm rainfall this month thus far) Welcome back 90's-00's style winters, excepting the last three.

However, as an aside, a truly historic spell has just ended IMBY in terms of temperatures as today (12th January) is the end of a sequence of sub 10c temperatures stretching back to 13th November, that's 60 consecutive days. Of those 60 days, something like 12 were ICE days and a similar number of SNOW LYING days so truly exciting stuff, although most people will not have been happy with that. My personal accumulated snow depths only came to something like 6 inches all told but then again we don't live in Canada, do we?

IMBY, you may recall, the last spell of sub10c spells of any length was actually last winter with 94 consecutive days so quite poor in comparison with that.

Looking towards the longer term, I'm still hoping my post 283 is somewhere near right BUT all I'll say is that we must be patient, it will get colder from this weekend onwards, snow or no snow.

"At least it will be mild" Cheers.

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 12, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Well, let's keep this thread going somehow.

Despite the general gloom and doom suggested by the MOD thread I do believe there is some reason for optimism in terms of a change for the good.

After the milder trend which will possibly peak at 15c in places over the next few days, the outlook from the 18th January onwards is certainly complex.

Some quieter interludes influenced by HP and/or a general NW/SW flow is what appears to be on offer. In spite of this, there are some much colder interludes thrown in the mix and I believe we should NOT write of the chances of TRANSIENT SNOW TO RAIN/RAIN TO SNOW EVENTS at some point before the end of January. Ok, laying snow to remain on the ground for a substantial duration is looking particularly unlikely, besides THE CLOCK IS TICKING as this season progresses.

Here's my reasoning for optimism and note the general trend showing COOLER TEMPERATURES which is now nailed on.

By strictly following the Mean Temps and/or Operational you can clearly see that near normal/slightly below normal temperatures are soon in the offing.

Backing up my suspicions FOR POSSIBLE SNOW AT TIMES it seems is http://uk.weather.co...ewbury-UKXX0097 Note the period Next Wednesday through Friday.

feel that following the Fax Chart output will be the best bet, when tracking any precipitation events nearer the key date mentioned above and beyond.

Ever Hopeful Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 13, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Dorsetbred]

Certainly not cold enough for any white precip down along the coastal fringe for the forseeable future, even though next week see's a return to more traditional figures for Jan.

I think we will have to wait until Feb to see anything in the line of white stuff, even then as the days grow longer it suggests with Feb being sometimes the best snow month, the period for snow on the ground decreases.

[coldfingers]

Yep, just looks like rain all the wy for the coast and for pretty much the rest of the region too. Sorry to say so gottolovethisweather but I think your dreams of snow are just that, dreams.

Mind you, I would love to be proved wrong.

[flyer]

Hmmm think I will put away the sled and tea tray for now. <_<

[Kiwi]

Hmmm think I will put away the sled and tea tray for now. <_<

Yes boots, umbrellas and waterproofs are the order of the day!