Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

[slb97]

Hello all!

Thank you very much for your kind messages x We had a few snow grains in the air this morning but apart from being cold that's it for now I think! The model thread doesn't seem to hold out much hope either but you never know!

[coldfingers]

Well I actually saw and felt about 10 grains of snow today. Nothing to compete with December I don't think.

Hi slb, glad to 'see' you back posting.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Didn't see a single flake (or grain) in Southsea today, infact when the sun popped out during the afternoon, every now & then, the temperature rose to 6C!

Roll on spring

[gottolovethisweather]

Okay then, a briefish summary as how I see the weather developing over the next TWO WEEKS.

THE MAIN HEADLINE IS FOR NO MORE DOUBLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR ANYONE IN THE CSE REGION AFTER 17TH JANUARY UNTIL AT LEAST THE 31ST JANUARY

A. In general terms HIGH PRESSURE will dominate the weather from 18th January through to 23rd January at least.

B. After the 23rd January a change in the synoptic pattern SHOULD accomodate a NORTHERLY/NORTH-EASTERLY/EASTERLY wind flow until the end of the forecast period. ***

I would predict after experiencing temperatures within the general range of 5-8c (near normal) across the region in part A, part B will possibly be another headline grabber as temperatures WILL be much more condusive for SNOW by then.

Hello all fellow CSE’rs

Well, after the general success of my previous forecast shown above I promised another attempt so here goes.

The Model/Ensembles are certainly suggesting a change to ZONALITY. So because of this scenario some doom-mongering folk are writing off the rest of winter as if the MODEL OUTPUT is gospel and furthermore some mildies say it will last for another 7-8 weeks.

Well my friends I forsee the trend from today onwards will be as follows.........................

A generally sunny or bright COLD AND FROSTY (some harsh) END TO JANUARY.

The 1^st and 2^nd February likely to be pretty nondescript days except when and if the sun comes out. However a notable breeze will start developing during this time.

From the 3^rd February (New Moon) onwards a REAL CHANGE of weather type is likely. This period, right through to at least the 18^th February (Full Moon) will be an ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO KEEP TRACK OF.

I’LL BE GIVING MY FORECAST A 80-85% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FROM HERE ON IN, AS THE AIRFLOW MAY BECOME POLAR MARITIME OR EVEN TROPICAL MARITIME AT TIMES. YUK! YUK! Anyway, whatever, for now my expectations for the 3^rd February – 18^th February period is as laid out below.

IT WILL NEVER BE MILD , with temperatures generally 6c to 9c during the day, 0-3c at night. Obviously milder in some of the prone coastal localities, maybe Southsea/Portsmouth reporting something exceptional.

I’m expecting on the whole an AIRFLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST so A POLAR MARITIME AIRMASS should prevail for the most part. Hence my temperature expectations shown above. Precipitation amounts will be nothing exceptional, however I do expect some WINTRY PRECIPITATION to arrive courtesy of SHOWERY OUTBREAKS. If GENERAL SNOW were to develop I feel at this stage it would be of THE WET VARIETY WITH HILL SNOW perhaps more likely with a probability of some temporary accumulations.

SO IN SUMMARY, I EXPECT A GENERALLY SHOWERY REGIME WITH COOL SUNNIER DAYS INTERSPERSED. SOME DAYS WILL PRODUCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW FOLK. SOME DAYS WILL ALSO BE DISTINCTLY WINDY AND MAYBE SOME GALES AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NEAR NORMAL FIGURES MOST DAYS WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF FROST AND ICE. SO MY FORECAST FOR FEBRUARY SHOULD IN FACT BE THAT OF AN ATYPICAL FEBRUARY OF RECENT YEARS. :excl:

AT THIS TIMESCALE, PARTICULAR DATES OF NOTE FOR MANY DIFFERENT REASONS ARE THE 3^RD/4^TH FEBRUARY (A RAIN TO SNOW EVENT?) THE 7^TH FEBRUARY AND THE 9^TH FEBRUARY.

AFTER THE PERIOD SHOWN ABOVE, I ANTICIPATE A MUCH COLDER REGIME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF YET MORE SNOW TO FINISH OFF FEBRUARY AND AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH. I’LL KEEP EVERYTHING CROSSED ON THIS ASPECT TOO.

There is much more action to look forward to for a good while yet!

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 28, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[itsnowjoke]

what a great forcast sorry for butting in on your thread but its boring on ours......due to weather circumstances...........winter is far from over.

[Dorsetbred]

After some 8weeks, finally saw the humidity drop back into the 60% area today, things are having the moisture wrung out of them.

Didn't see a single flake (or grain) in Southsea today, infact when the sun popped out during the afternoon, every now & then, the temperature rose to 6C!

Roll on spring

6C, wow even in full blue skies and sun, we struggled to reach 3.3C with a biting wind pushing wind chill to just below freezing

Edited January 28, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[Mark Neal]

As Ever a great post from GTLTW, Temperature Here Today In Oxford, Was A Chilly 2-3c at best,

Currently in Headington,Oxford @ Oxford Balloon Preservation Group Hq

Temperature -3.2c. Humdity is at 73%

Outlook : Clear Skies-Sunny Intervals

Lovely Crisp Cold Weekend With Light Winds, Perfect For Ballooning!! (Yippee)

Last Weekend Typical British Weather, Wind and Low Cloud Paid Havoc To Flying As Picture shows..

[Dorsetbred]

Wall to wall blue sky, and 2.5C, fabulous weather

[coldfingers]

Wall to wall blue sky, and 2.5C, fabulous weather

Wall to wall blue sky and 6.1C, even better weather! Wonderful to see after all the grey wet days.

[slb97]

Hello - yes it's beautiful outside so I'm going to make the most of it! I think we're in for some more gloomy Atlantic muck but may have some drier periods compared to the north/northwest so that's not as bad although I've read that they might have thunder, hail, sleet, snow and gales so I think I would prefer a north/south swap!!

Not overly confident about anymore wintry weather down here but I'll start looking forward to some hopefully thundery weather later in the year!

Edited January 30, 2011 by slb97

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello - yes it's beautiful outside so I'm going to make the most of it! I think we're in for some more gloomy Atlantic muck but may have some drier periods compared to the north/northwest so that's not as bad although I've read that they might have thunder, hail, sleet, snow and gales so I think I would prefer a north/south swap!!

Not overly confident about anymore wintry weather down here but I'll start looking forward to some hopefully thundery weather later in the year!

Oh yes wasn't it a cracking day slb and others. I got nowhere near as warm as CF did on the coast either (I only want warmth come the spring equinox onwards), my max being only 3.2c after a run of 0.8c (Sat), 1.3c (Fri) and 2.1c(Thurs). The next few days and maybe more will feel quite tropical in comparison.

I'm kind of strangely looking forward to the zonality and the FI signs on offer too. I also believe the weather may make the headlines in terms of GALES, SNOW, COLD AND MILD plus the kitchen sink all on offer. Some current GFS offerings are quite scary for some folk up north However it also wouldn't take much of a change in synoptics for the pattern to become INTERESTING :excl: down south too, fingers crossed.

Here's hoping my forecast comes true (post 353) and then there will be something to talk about in here.

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 30, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[SunnySouthCoast]

Was gorgeous today wasn't it, went for a walk along the beach this afternoon& it was as packed as a summers day down there (though obviously no sun bathers!) Got quite mild too, just over 8C, very nice B)

[nsrobins]

Evening fellow central southerners.

Time perhaps to emerge from the zonal slumber. Things are happening and let's just say - look east!

[Polar Bear]

Oh yes wasn't it a cracking day slb and others. I got nowhere near as warm as CF did on the coast either (I only want warmth come the spring equinox onwards), my max being only 3.2c after a run of 0.8c (Sat), 1.3c (Fri) and 2.1c(Thurs). The next few days and maybe more will feel quite tropical in comparison.

I'm kind of strangely looking forward to the zonality and the FI signs on offer too. I also believe the weather may make the headlines in terms of GALES, SNOW, COLD AND MILD plus the kitchen sink all on offer. Some current GFS offerings are quite scary for some folk up north However it also wouldn't take much of a change in synoptics for the pattern to become INTERESTING :excl: down south too, fingers crossed.

Here's hoping my forecast comes true (post 353) and then there will be something to talk about in here.

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

Well GTLW I just heard on the BBC tonight that I think they said that there was all types of weather across the Uk today.....gales, snow, cold, and mild, fog and rain and sun..so you are again there with it....tell me now have you a chrystal ball...if so what does it say about the best seven numbers to pick and put on a piece of paper and pay a pound for?

Seriously though it does look our neck of woods sets to get slightly interesting at weekend/..as you have rightly said......However one problem though I maybe out in that all day Sunday with the horses. Hooray... freezed my little legs off last weekend and this weekend soak em...(why havent we an emoticon with a brolly?)

Hmm and nsrobins I see may have picked up something aswell it seems...look east indeed chaps and chapesses...we have, we are, and we shall.

PB

PS It does kind of look scary for those up north indeed..I may nip on the regional thread to take a peek. Mondy is always a good poster ..I wonder if anyone has mentioned Yasi though to them?

[Polar Bear]

Oh yes wasn't it a cracking day slb and others. I got nowhere near as warm as CF did on the coast either (I only want warmth come the spring equinox onwards), my max being only 3.2c after a run of 0.8c (Sat), 1.3c (Fri) and 2.1c(Thurs). The next few days and maybe more will feel quite tropical in comparison.

I'm kind of strangely looking forward to the zonality and the FI signs on offer too. I also believe the weather may make the headlines in terms of GALES, SNOW, COLD AND MILD plus the kitchen sink all on offer. Some current GFS offerings are quite scary for some folk up north However it also wouldn't take much of a change in synoptics for the pattern to become INTERESTING :excl: down south too, fingers crossed.

Here's hoping my forecast comes true (post 353) and then there will be something to talk about in here.

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

Well GTLW I just heard on the BBC tonight that I think they said that there was all types of weather across the Uk today.....gales, snow, cold, and mild, fog and rain and sun..so you are again there with it....tell me now have you a chrystal ball...if so what does it say about the best seven numbers to pick and put on a piece of paper and pay a pound for?

Seriously though it does look our neck of woods sets to get slightly interesting at weekend/..as you have rightly said......However one problem though I maybe out in that all day Sunday with the horses. Hooray... freezed my little legs off last weekend and this weekend soak em...(why havent we an emoticon with a brolly?)

Hmm and nsrobins I see may have picked up something aswell it seems...look east indeed chaps and chapesses...we have, we are, and we shall.

PB

PS It does kind of look scary for those up north indeed..I may nip on the regional thread to take a peek. Mondy is always a good poster ..I wonder if anyone has mentioned Yasi though to them?

and PPS ...GTLTW and your post 358 - infact to all on CSE....My confidence level to your forecasting and post equals 99.9% so far. I am going to be flicking back to that nearly every day to watch progress, and also so preach it to my colleagues at work so that they think I am special......("case" probably in their eyes...)

Edited February 2, 2011 by Polar Bear

[gottolovethisweather]

Evening fellow central southerners.

Time perhaps to emerge from the zonal slumber. Things are happening and let's just say - look east!

Hello.

Something COULD indeed be developing to our east or northeast as we go into FI. It is also nicely shown by the attached Ensemebles and if it were to occur, it would be in line with my amateur forecast.

Something to keep our interest for sure and perhaps we should watch those dates I had previously mentioned in post 353.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 2, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Dorsetbred]

What the heck it's 9.6°C at 8:30 at night in feb. How plain boring can it get, please something to liven things up, irrespective, this is weather

[SunnySouthCoast]

Well it went no lower than 11C here last night!! :wacko:

[slb97]

This weather is truly dull and uninspiring with nothing that exciting on the horizon except more of the same. At least I'm watching the italians play rugby (and I'm interested in the rugby, honest! )

[coldfingers]

This weather is truly dull and uninspiring with nothing that exciting on the horizon except more of the same. At least I'm watching the italians play rugby (and I'm interested in the rugby, honest! )

Yeah right! Which one did you fancy then, the big fella with the long hairy mane? :lol: As you see, I like rugby too, honest!!!

I must agree about no sign of anything even vaguely interesting showing in the near future. Even FI doesn't look exciting really.

[slb97]

I did actually coldfingers! And I love Cheval, the huge fella with the long hair who plays for France (but his hair was tied back tonight) - he reminds me of a caveman who could....anyway I'll move on lol

[gottolovethisweather]

:gathering: :lol:

Keep the faith guys n gals. Something good could well still be on the agenda yet.

Pretty much 44 more days before I lose interest in wanting snow and fost.

Cheers for now.

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 5, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello.

Anybody out there!

So far my forecast has gone reasonably to plan other than there's not a lot of PM air on offer.

Here's my updated thoughts for the rest of the period up until the Full Moon (18th) date changer of the weather.

I feel the atlantic is starting to show signs of slowing down, hopefully some drier days interspersed next week (may even see the sun!) :shok: and then come the start/middle part of the following week, it'll be time for High Pressure. Who knows what might develop from there!

STILL GAME ON WINTER. 43 days until the spring equinox and that's when it can politely P... off.

gottolovethisweather

PS! The models are struggling at the moment and WILL become clearer around Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

Edited February 6, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[coldfingers]

I did actually coldfingers! And I love Cheval, the huge fella with the long hair who plays for France (but his hair was tied back tonight) - he reminds me of a caveman who could....anyway I'll move on lol

Well I appear to be able to forecast who fancies who slb, LOL.

As to weather forecasting I leave that to the clever ones and look for hopeful signs. bad when you are looking out into FI though. However from the 17th looks interesting for snow. If only that could come off it would be a wonderful few days. But a gotto says, it is far to eary to tell yet BUT it has shown snow for two days now. Ah if only .

Edited February 6, 2011 by coldfingers

[gottolovethisweather]

bad when you are looking out into FI though.

Wow, someone else has posted, welcome CF.

FI is where all the trends are first spotted and WHEN they consistently appear within the models we can get EXCITED. How about these for now?

The above show the gradual predicted temperature cooldown across the region.

Furthermore the following 12z GFS captures show that COLDER air wants to gets ROMANTIC the day before Valentines. At midnight its a case of looking for the attack from BOTH West and East and at 0300 they kiss and there begins the process for A COLD AS ICE relationship.

Oh how this WINTER runs and runs, only time will tell if this comes good but I'm ever hopeful.

Optimistic Wintery Regards

gottolovethisweather