Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

[MR EXTREMES]

theres a change brewing and as has been suggested i would not rule out some snow before the end of january.

as for febuary its suprising that febuary is pretty much a blocked month infact dry cold fosty is common in febuary but as things are different over the last few years then i would not rule out a cold easter this year although no good for sleds lol.

[jy]

You may be correct Badboy,this is not scientific and at my age the memory plays tricks,but see what happens this year,my birthday,which is feb 9 over the years has produced snow or cold weather on many occasions,in many areas,of course it is at a potentially cold time of year i agree but on numerous occasions it delivers.Why when i lived in Kent i would always have a party in the football clubhouse,the number of times pretty girls in very short skirts had to be ferried across the snow laden car park to protect the killer heels ect spring to mind,a tough job but somebody had to do it

[coldfingers]

theres a change brewing and as has been suggested i would not rule out some snow before the end of january.

as for febuary its suprising that febuary is pretty much a blocked month infact dry cold fosty is common in febuary but as things are different over the last few years then i would not rule out a cold easter this year although no good for sleds lol.

Please don't say a cold Easter. It's in April this year for goodness sake! April 22nd to 25th. If that is cold I will throw a tantrum!

[Kiwi]

Please don't say a cold Easter. It's in April this year for goodness sake! April 22nd to 25th. If that is cold I will throw a tantrum!

You never know?! ....good job you weren't around in 1908!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/understanding/1908_snowstorm.shtml

.... there's a thought ....a good 3 months to go yet for the cold fans amongst us!

[coldfingers]

You never know?! ....good job you weren't around in 1908!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk...snowstorm.shtml

.... there's a thought ....a good 3 months to go yet for the cold fans amongst us!

Don't I know!!!! I got married 7th April 1984 and it snowed the week before. It was a perishing cold easterly i think on my wedding day and I had a thin wedding dress. Had to borrow a white shawl or I would have frozen having wedding photos taken!

Edited January 13, 2011 by coldfingers

[SunnySouthCoast]

theres a change brewing and as has been suggested i would not rule out some snow before the end of january.

as for febuary its suprising that febuary is pretty much a blocked month infact dry cold fosty is common in febuary but as things are different over the last few years then i would not rule out a cold easter this year although no good for sleds lol.

I wouldn't rule out some snow before the end of January either... in Scotland & the highest ground in northern England!

No chance down here I'm afraid.

[Polar Bear]

Hello all. Welcome to the Mild Spell thread for CSE.

A post from me confirming how mild it is now (10.2c Air Temp, Dewpoint 10.2c, 38.6mm rainfall this month thus far) Welcome back 90's-00's style winters, excepting the last three.

However, as an aside, a truly historic spell has just ended IMBY in terms of temperatures as today (12th January) is the end of a sequence of sub 10c temperatures stretching back to 13th November, that's 60 consecutive days. Of those 60 days, something like 12 were ICE days and a similar number of SNOW LYING days so truly exciting stuff, although most people will not have been happy with that. My personal accumulated snow depths only came to something like 6 inches all told but then again we don't live in Canada, do we?

IMBY, you may recall, the last spell of sub10c spells of any length was actually last winter with 94 consecutive days so quite poor in comparison with that.

Looking towards the longer term, I'm still hoping my post 283 is somewhere near right BUT all I'll say is that we must be patient, it will get colder from this weekend onwards, snow or no snow.

"At least it will be mild" Cheers.

gottolovethisweather

Hey you GTLTW

Love your posts and even though not been around (work very stressful) I love popping in to see what you and CF and my lil CSE friends are thinking....anyway have read your post below today so will be back in and around to see how it all pans...

A few things though GTLW...on your hoping that your 298 post is "still right" for those that dont look back here are my comments to that question to yourself...

[

quote]Tuesday 11th to Thursday 13th January is the WARMEST PERIOD , could reach 12/13c in quite a few places but much cooler at night if cloud clears.

- you were flipping right on that one heh?

Next Friday (14th) onwards - IMHO there is a likelihood of a continuation of the above trend BUT A GRADUAL COOL DOWN towards the next Friday (21st January) onwards,

- well that seems to probably the case and loads supporting you on that one

Happy Birthday GTLTW on that day

. I would hope that that part of the post is still something near right! ........and lets hope the weather gives you a lovely present on that day. Start your wishes now

Right enough from me and see you all on here again very soon

PB

Edited January 14, 2011 by Polar Bear

[gottolovethisweather]

Hey you GTLTW

[ - you were flipping right on that one heh?

- well that seems to probably the case and loads supporting you on that one

. I would hope that that part of the post is still something near right! ........and lets hope the weather gives you a lovely present on that day. Start your wishes now

Right enough from me and see you all on here again very soon

PB

Well Sweet Cheeks what can I say, Thankyou Kindly. :blush:

I do admit I like to look back and see if my forecasts VERFIED OR NOT? it's all part of the fun and that's why we're all on here I suppose.

The battle in this weather game I reckon is when us good folk can separate those who give reason as to how and why a forecast may have bust, from the one liner lurkers who believe that they can bluff us with garbage all the way. My personal predictions/intrepretations are based >90% on TRENDSPOTTING (trendspotting! not trendsetting ) and I feel this is something I attain very well. Besides, it hopefully makes up for my lack of knowledge of atmospheric processes etc. which is purely abysmal. Good god, I feel like I'm having a WI moment so moving swiftly on.......................

Okay then, a briefish summary as how I see the weather developing over the next TWO WEEKS.

THE MAIN HEADLINE IS FOR NO MORE DOUBLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR ANYONE IN THE CSE REGION AFTER 17TH JANUARY UNTIL AT LEAST THE 31ST JANUARY

A. In general terms HIGH PRESSURE will dominate the weather from 18th January through to 23rd January at least.

B. After the 23rd January a change in the synoptic pattern SHOULD accomodate a NORTHERLY/NORTH-EASTERLY/EASTERLY wind flow until the end of the forecast period. ***

*** Of note, there is an OUTSIDE CHANCE of a brief NorthWesterly occuring MAINLY IN THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD between the TWO SPECIFIC TIMESPANS as above, possibly into the last week of January but this I feel at this stage is highly unlikely.

Ok it's really in FI I suppose at this stage, but I would predict after experiencing temperatures within the general range of 5-8c (near normal) across the region in part A, part B will possibly be another headline grabber as temperatures WILL be much more condusive for SNOW by then.

Early-Mid Winter Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 14, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[coldfingers]

part B will possibly be another headline grabber as temperatures WILL be much more condusive for SNOW by then.

Oh I so hope you are right about colder weather as i am getting sick to the back teeth (OH dear, mothers expression ) of the constant rain and cloud, well just cloud today and I even walked in town with my jacket off until I turned a corner near the seafront and got blasted by a gale force wind!

However, I digress, what I meant to say was that in the local park some of the buds are breaking out in green tips on the bushes, they wont like a cold spell now methinks! Also bluetits are surveying the nesting boxes already so everything thinks spring is here already. Max temp 10.8C and a silly minimum of 8.1C

[gottolovethisweather]

However, I digress, what I meant to say was that in the local park some of the buds are breaking out in green tips on the bushes, they wont like a cold spell now methinks! Also bluetits are surveying the nesting boxes already so everything thinks spring is here already.

Hello CF,

Well Phenological study is one of my favourite pasttimes to be undertaking, even in the depths of winter. On Wednesday I had the first emergence of flowering Snowdrops in my garden and have seen others out and about. On Thursday I heard a singing Blackbird at 7.15am, i.e. well before daybreak and that is my earliest ever event of this kind on record. As for Blue Tits, they obviously have read part B of my forecast too as they will be using the nestboxes for roosting at this time in preparation for bitter cold to come. Other Tits and many members of the Thrush family will be paired up too, even at this early stage.

Here's hoping for some action to come after the inital wet n windy period late Sunday into Monday, then a sunny High and a perishing easterly to follow? :cold:

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 15, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[slb97]

Evening everyone! Hope all is well. I love CF's and GTLTW's above posts. I think it must be the wine but they've made me giggle uncontrollably and now I'm in tears - even though there's no snow around this thread makes me laugh and smile whatever the weather!

[coldfingers]

OK, OK, so I had to look up Phenological, and paste the word to make sure I spelled it correctly. So what? We can't all be clever people, some of us are just here to applaud others!

( And I am never sure if that should be spelled or spelt either but as i think spelt is a type of wheat I will stick with spelled. )

And no, I haven't been imbibing freely like slb (wish I had) just a little bemused by coming across a word I didn't know, I read a lot see but obviously not the right things. Dare i say I thought phenology was something to do with the study of the bumps on the head? Slb, I hope you didn't read that with a mouthful of wine, I have found it doesn't do a keyboard a lot of good when you spray wine on it.

Still no weather I would even stoop to discuss and we have to keep this thread going as I am sure all the others are casting pitying smiles in our direction when they see us constantly at the bottom of the pile.

GTLTW, I am more surprised we haven't seen bumblebees and butterflies out it has been so warm on the coast here.

Edited January 15, 2011 by coldfingers

[Dorsetbred]

GTLTW, I am more surprised we haven't seen bumblebees and butterflies out it has been so warm on the coast here.

Butterflies spotted in the garden down here this week

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello,

I'm really clutching at straws here but there appears to be an indication for perhaps a few snow flurries into the early part of Tuesday.

Two reasons, this http://www.netweathe...ction=wisi;sess= and also where the attached fax charts want to show the 528dam line at the following times?

Anyway, further down the line, in spite of unforeseen minor complications on Tuesday/Wednesday, my post no. 308 still looks hopeful.

Have fun and if we can all keep our feet firmly on the ground then February or even March may well produce further delights still. Remembering that even in the depths of the generally horrible winter of 2005, February into March produced a run of 16 consecutive snow falling days! Whatever happens, time is clearly still on our side, even if my short-term hopes and/or long-term were to go boobs up.

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 16, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[coldfingers]

Butterflies spotted in the garden down here this week

Hi Dorsetbred and thanks for the info on the butterflies, I am surprised but not shocked to hear they have been spotted in your area already. It has certainly been unusually warm this month at times and I myself found a aldybird out a couple of weeks ago. It didn't look too happy though so I put it somewhere safe to go back to hibernation. I saw butterflies up until the end of November when the severe weather arrived so for some then they have only hibernated for around 7 weeks. Amazing really that the severe cold doesn't kill them off. Do you know what variety the butterfly was?

GTLTW, I hope you see a few snow flurries on Tuesday, you deserve it for persistenly refusing to lose faith in more colder weather.

Only rain for us on the coast I am afraid and it is showing torrential rain tomorrow just because I have to walk to town early to try to get a doctors appointment tomorrow. The only way to get one seems to be get there half an hour before they open so that you can be the first in a long queue.

Edited January 16, 2011 by coldfingers

[slb97]

Hi everyone, Sunday again (the weekend goes too quickly!) I've been watching the raintoday radar with interest because although we seem to be lucky enough to miss the rain I think I can see some squall lines so I wonder if that's been of any interest to anyone caught in it.

The model thread doesn't fill me with much inspiration so I've been looking at holidays instead, Cyprus for us this year

[Polar Bear]

Hello all - SLB, GTLTW, CF and Dorsetbred.

Well since my last post I have blushed from being called Sweet cheeks, giggled from the wine spurting envisages, scratched my head at the new word phenology and considered that will be my word for the week, and above all got all smug and comforted knowing that this mildness which was really well putting me at sorts, could be clearing off soon. It felt incredibly odd riding the horse without being wrapped up like Michelin Man...he was much happier altthough little bit excitable in the winds this weekend

Thanks GTLTW for your update...sooo then some interesting things to look forward to and I really dont mind it if you clutch at some straws. You could say you are clutching at a thatched roof but it will still get me set up ready for trying to as you say learn to trendspot rather than trendset. . Whilst I am looking forward to the high and the easterly there is half of me now thinking that the flipping utlity companies must be very deaf now with the sounds of " Keer ching" - roll in that money. Did anyone else have an astronimcal bill last quarter...

Flipping raining again I think now in Newbury, - but oh well at least it is the evening and after actually not a bad day..bit dull but dry...it will do ....for now.

PB

Hi everyone, Sunday again (the weekend goes too quickly!) I've been watching the raintoday radar with interest because although we seem to be lucky enough to miss the rain I think I can see some squall lines so I wonder if that's been of any interest to anyone caught in it.

The model thread doesn't fill me with much inspiration so I've been looking at holidays instead, Cyprus for us this year

hey there,

Hadnt checked the radar but will now - was going to but Come dine with me took me away from it....

Great idea Cyprus; how lovely. Go Girl.

Talking of Model Thread and talk i went into that chat room one weekend...ooh heh I got the feeling that there had been some "rivalry" between the modellers which these chat room guys had noticed. I felt like I was back at HIgh School...Girls High School. Blimey cant they have manners like the english and stick to the weather ?

Edited January 16, 2011 by Polar Bear

[slb97]

Hi PB, we've just had a short shower in Portsmouth but gone now! I love Cyprus especially the abandoned city in Famagusta which is very spooky to look at through the wire fences! Talking of spooky and completely unweather related, mum's just phoned to say that a candle holder has fallen over in the lounge and then a CD case started moving by itself (witnessed by mum and dad). I blamed it on the slightly breezy conditions!

Now I can hear noises from the kitchen, but it's probably the cat! :lol:

[Nick L]

Hellooo southerners! Good to see that Reading is in the same state as I left it...snowless. Well, actually, that's not good at all

[coldfingers]

And what a dreadful morning this morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Every time I woke in the night it was bucketing down with rain and when I left to walk to town at 8:00am it was still bucketing down with rain.

To make matter worse the wind was continually turning my umbrella inside out and as I passed a flooded area of road a National Express coach went by at at well over the 30 mph limit and right through the very middle of the massive puddle even though there was nothing coming on the other side of the road and he could have easily avoided the water!!! Yes, I was totally drenched from head to foot by a massive wave of water that covered me literally head to toe, I even had water flowing down inside the collar of my coat and into my waterproof walking shoes. I was left shouting imprecations to the back of a rapidly departing coach.

So I ended up leaving wet areas on the doctors waiting room chairs as jeans take a long time to dry. It was the wet jeans honest. :lol:

[slb97]

And what a dreadful morning this morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Every time I woke in the night it was bucketing down with rain and when I left to walk to town at 8:00am it was still bucketing down with rain.

To make matter worse the wind was continually turning my umbrella inside out and as I passed a flooded area of road a National Express coach went by at at well over the 30 mph limit and right through the very middle of the massive puddle even though there was nothing coming on the other side of the road and he could have easily avoided the water!!! Yes, I was totally drenched from head to foot by a massive wave of water that covered me literally head to toe, I even had water flowing down inside the collar of my coat and into my waterproof walking shoes. I was left shouting imprecations to the back of a rapidly departing coach.

So I ended up leaving wet areas on the doctors waiting room chairs as jeans take a long time to dry. It was the wet jeans honest. :lol:

Hello coldfingers! Sorry to hear about your wet day - I left mega early for work this morning and the motorway was still a carpark at 7am lol - blooming weather! Don't visit the model thread or you'll feel even worse - I'd love for another eastern trough thingamejigamy to come our way like it did in December but I think that was a one off lol for this winter if the model thread is to be believed lol

[coldfingers]

Hello coldfingers! Sorry to hear about your wet day - I left mega early for work this morning and the motorway was still a carpark at 7am lol - blooming weather! Don't visit the model thread or you'll feel even worse - I'd love for another eastern trough thingamejigamy to come our way like it did in December but I think that was a one off lol for this winter if the model thread is to be believed lol

Hi slb, thanks for the warning about the model thread it always seems to be a bit of a war zone whenever I visit it so one learns to keep ones head down. :lol:

At the moment we have an absolutely torrential downpour again, in fact i am looking forward to what looks like maybe a couple of dry days from wednesday. Tomorrow I will take a different route to town as getting drenched two days running would be too much for my temper.

I suppose you have to travel the M27 to work then, that really is a nightmare at rush hour so I don't envy you.

[Nick L]

Agree about this morning - truly vile weather. Got drenched walking to my early lecture, not the best start to a Monday morning.

18.6mm of rain recorded here:

Edited January 17, 2011 by Nick L

[coldfingers]

METO radar showing a large white blob that looks to be from Basingstoke to Newbury and I would think heading for Reading. As that is the highest level they show for rain which is a downpour then I would expect a lot of localised flooding in the area.

It is looking and sounding very unpleasant outside here at the moment and we are only showing as heavy.

So much rain this month we shouldn't have any hosepie ban in the summer as our rain comes from underground aquifers in the chalk downs and they must be pretty full now.

Edited January 17, 2011 by coldfingers

[Nick L]

METO radar showing a large white blob that looks to be from Basingstoke to Newbury and I would think heading for Reading. As that is the highest level they show for rain which is a downpour then I would expect a lot of localised flooding in the area.

It is looking and sounding very unpleasant outside here at the moment and we are only showing as heavy.

So much rain this month we shouldn't have any hosepie ban in the summer as our rain comes from underground aquifers in the chalk downs and they must be pretty full now.

Goodness me that does look heavy! Why can't snow ever be this heavy and persistent :lol: