Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

[TheHumph]

A light flurry of (unexpected) snow here in petersfield. Not much but the first of 2011. Not too much to get excited about on the Raintoday radar but a pleasant surprise!

[SussexmarkyMark]

OK, we've had the black and white now I will add the grey. :huh: Grey skies and gloomy here but dry. Temp 2.4 too warm for snow even if any precipitation reaches this far. So a possible cold and damp day in store. Woohoo!

Still nice to see some activity on this thread again.

Just had a light flurry here and it's 2.6c

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello all.

I am pleased to see quite a few snowflakes falling here in Newbury too.

The next dates to possibly get excited about in terms of snowfall are the 6th January and 9th January. These dates are days that will very likely concern snow to rain or rain to snow events which in fact are more atypical of a normal winter pattern. :ph34r:

Whatever happens regarding the above today has been a pleasant surprise and does show that anything is possible. Longer term, mid January onwards in particular is looking a good period for intense cold so fingers crossed.

Looking forward to much more action to come after the 2nd coldest December since records began.

Happy New Year

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 3, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[SunnySouthCoast]

So snow here today & no rain either, though my sister sent me a text this morning to say it was snowing in Horndean...

Things look set to warm up by the end of the week with temps as high as 11C/12C possible, that is mild, as opposed to 'less cold' or 'average' temps we have been having recently. Then it looks like after that cooling down again, but never getting really cold, down here at least, It looks like if you want a return to real winter cold you need to head up north as down here it doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for usual January weather.

[Polar Bear]

Hello all.

I am pleased to see quite a few snowflakes falling here in Newbury too.

The next dates to possibly get excited about in terms of snowfall are the 6th January and 9th January. These dates are days that will very likely concern snow to rain or rain to snow events which in fact are more atypical of a normal winter pattern. :ph34r:

Whatever happens regarding the above today has been a pleasant surprise and does show that anything is possible. Longer term, mid January onwards in particular is looking a good period for intense cold so fingers crossed.

Looking forward to much more action to come after the 2nd coldest December since records began.

Happy New Year

gottolovethisweather

Happy new year to you all in the CSE.

Like most have been ill with some virus but pleased to report getting better in time for work....urghh!!

I have been wondering what the sun would look like and pleased it popped its head out yesterday....small flurries yes in Newbury on and off all day...very very very light...

will be interested to see how this week goes and will now go and catch up on all things weather...pleased there is some change the dull and the grey and the miserable was just too like the November poem.....No sun, No moon, no morn, no noon, no proper time of day (or something like that...)

PB

[Gleno-South Coast]

Evening all,well had very light snow here around midday with temps around 2.5-3C,is looking like milder air by the end of the week with a succesion of fronts from the west and temps of 6-9C,so nothing significant in terms of cold.Back to work tomorrow Boo!!!!

[Rustynailer]

You have just reminded me GSC. It snowed lightly this morning for an hour from 0800 at work 3 miles west of here. It turned to rain at around 0900 and continued as rain lightly all day.

So thats another day with some snowfall this winter here in the South of the South.

I will be surprised if we don't have another good cold spell this winter, January is historically the best winter month I think.

I wonder which direction the next cold spell if there is one, comes from? I guess East or rather hope East. The MOD thread can't decide at the moment IMO, because the output is unusual/confusing/not settled/recovering from festivities.

I'll go the "delayed action low sunspot minimum/reduced gulf stream...Cold for the rest of winter with a few slightly warm bits like this thrown in" route, for the season I think, I cant see any other reason for it going so cold and sustaining it so early (November!) other than it is a once in a Blue moon winter. The cold has not really gone away either. I don't believe that these weather patterns we are seeing now have been seen before in the age of satellites, radars and multi million $/£ Model outputs. Nobody will have satellite photos to compare 1881 or 1890 with 2011 for instance.

Just some thoughts.

Russ

[coldfingers]

Happy new year to you all in the CSE.

Like most have been ill with some virus but pleased to report getting better in time for work....urghh!!

I have been wondering what the sun would look like and pleased it popped its head out yesterday....small flurries yes in Newbury on and off all day...very very very light...

will be interested to see how this week goes and will now go and catch up on all things weather...pleased there is some change the dull and the grey and the miserable was just too like the November poem.....No sun, No moon, no morn, no noon, no proper time of day (or something like that...)

PB

Hope you soon feel on top form Polar Bear, it is a nasty virus if it's the same that has been doing the rounds in Bognor.

Just for you (although it should say 3rd Jan in Bognor not Nov!)

November

by Thomas Hood

No sun--no moon!

No morn--no noon!

No dawn--no dusk--no proper time of day--

No sky--no earthly view--

No distance looking blue--

No road--no street--

No "t'other side the way"--

No end to any Row--

No indications where the Crescents go--

No top to any steeple--

No recognitions of familiar people--

No courtesies for showing 'em--

No knowing 'em!

No mail--no post--

No news from any foreign coast--

No park--no ring--no afternoon gentility--

No company--no nobility--

No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,

No comfortable feel in any member--

No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,

No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds,

November!

(Or even a South Coast January)

Edited January 3, 2011 by coldfingers

[coldfingers]

Heard heavy rain during the night but dry all day. Was anyone in the region lucky enough to get snow?

[slb97]

Hello! Had a few flakes of snow in Southampton today but nothing much. Just seen the local forecast and we've got truckloads of rain to look forward to which will turn to snow north of the M4 - typical.

[Polar Bear]

Hello! Had a few flakes of snow in Southampton today but nothing much. Just seen the local forecast and we've got truckloads of rain to look forward to which will turn to snow north of the M4 - typical.

Hello Slb, happy new year to you! yes it seems icy rain for me in Newbury and Brighton.................................however...

without checking posts above, but I feel GTLTW said something...what is a brewing for Friday..Met OFFICE have an advisory warning for the south east for friday just issued at 19.30pm....

what is going on?....it says Heavy Snow for region below......(ooh the cut and paste worked!)

Bracknell Forest Brighton + Hove Buckinghamshire E Sussex Gtr London Hampshire Isle of Wight Kent Medway Milton Keynes Oxfordshire Portsmouth Reading Slough Southampton Surrey W Berkshire W Sussex Windsor + Maidenhead WokinghamHeavy SnowFri 7 JanA band of snow will move south to north turning to rain. Several centimetres of snow are possible, particularly over hills.

Issued at: 1930 Tue 4 Jan

Edited January 4, 2011 by Polar Bear

[Polar Bear]

Hope you soon feel on top form Polar Bear, it is a nasty virus if it's the same that has been doing the rounds in Bognor.

Just for you (although it should say 3rd Jan in Bognor not Nov!)

November

by Thomas Hood

No sun--no moon!

No morn--no noon!

No dawn--no dusk--no proper time of day--

No sky--no earthly view--

No distance looking blue--

No road--no street--

No "t'other side the way"--

No end to any Row--

No indications where the Crescents go--

No top to any steeple--

No recognitions of familiar people--

No courtesies for showing 'em--

No knowing 'em!

No mail--no post--

No news from any foreign coast--

No park--no ring--no afternoon gentility--

No company--no nobility--

No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,

No comfortable feel in any member--

No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,

No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds,

November!

(Or even a South Coast January)

Hello CF How are you? and Happy New Year....

this is the second time I am replying to you as I did the first time and as Iost power on the computer think I lost the post....well I cant find it..

Anyway thanks for the above brilliant it is one poem I remember from my youth that I thought was so typical of certain days of weather...not just a November day.,..did you see Bognor Beach on BBC this morning..they were trying to film the eclipse but hey as the weather was like the poem I dont think there was much to see..

rain I feel for the south you are right...however, there may be some surprises later on this week...think GTLW mentioned some surprises in an earlier post

regards

PB

[coldfingers]

Hello CF How are you? and Happy New Year....

this is the second time I am replying to you as I did the first time and as Iost power on the computer think I lost the post....well I cant find it..

Anyway thanks for the above brilliant it is one poem I remember from my youth that I thought was so typical of certain days of weather...not just a November day.,..did you see Bognor Beach on BBC this morning..they were trying to film the eclipse but hey as the weather was like the poem I dont think there was much to see..

rain I feel for the south you are right...however, there may be some surprises later on this week...think GTLW mentioned some surprises in an earlier post

regards

PB

Hi Polar Bear, thanks for the good wishes and hoping this next year is good for you and all my friends on here. A return to colder weather would be a good start towards that I reckon as most of us (at least on this thread) prefer the cold and snow.

I was on the bus today and it was so warm that I felt sick and got a headache and had to get off and have a walk in the cool to feel better. I hate warm winter weather as I tend to wrap up thinking it will be cold then you go on buses or in shops that try to pretend you are living in the tropics! Result? A warm, wilting coldfingers! So roll on the snow as at least it makes the buses cooler.

My daughter lives near the seafront in Bognor so she went down to the beach to watch them film the eclipse. Haha! Even I could have told them last night it was going to be cloudy this morning and they weren't actually at Bognor but Felpham which is East of Bognor and nearer to me. Shame actually about the eclipse as later in the morning the cloud cleared and it was lovely and sunny for a while. Far too late of course.

Anyway I will keep my warm coldfingers crossed for something white on friday, hail or frost would do even.

Edited January 4, 2011 by coldfingers

[Barometer Obama]

Happy New Year to all.

Just seen the BBC deliver a fairly incredible forecast with the heavy snow pushing north on thursday night. Their demographics (treat with caution) suggest snow for all during the night and then turning to rain friday morning.

I'm sure this has come out of the blue and I've just had a look at the GFS model run and the outputs don't suggest conducive conditions for snow south of about Banbury.

Perhaps something to keep an eye on though? Could the BBC be onto something?

[Joneseye]

Happy New Year to all.

Just seen the BBC deliver a fairly incredible forecast with the heavy snow pushing north on thursday night. Their demographics (treat with caution) suggest snow for all during the night and then turning to rain friday morning.

I'm sure this has come out of the blue and I've just had a look at the GFS model run and the outputs don't suggest conducive conditions for snow south of about Banbury.

Perhaps something to keep an eye on though? Could the BBC be onto something?

Been keeping an eye on that too. It does look to be very marginal from this range, but interestingly the track of the low pressure has been pushed further south by the model output in recent days and this southward movement IMO has prompted the advisories. The track will be important as the northern protion is likely to have the snow for the longest period. So in true winter style it will be more about nowcasting than forecasting IMO.

Also worth noting that the forecasted precipitation is likely to be heavy. The heavier precipitation can be conducive to turn back to snow due to the effects of evaporative cooling.

One to watch, but not to get too excited about for now. We do not have entrenched cold air over the UK like we did in December.

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm sure this has come out of the blue and I've just had a look at the GFS model run and the outputs don't suggest conducive conditions for snow south of about Banbury.

Perhaps something to keep an eye on though? Could the BBC be onto something?

Hello B_Obama,

I see Joneseye has responded to you since but I picked up on this two days ago as per my post 253 on this thread by trying to trendspot amongst the discussions on the MOD thread and my own studying of the various models.

It will be touch and go as for the timing of the event and whether the colder air to the north has been pushed south enough! I think it should only be a SNOW TO RAIN event for most of us so a lot of melting will also occur. Also, I must admit I do not like where the 528 dam line is showing on the current fax charts (although other dynamics at work might help us here) and I would use ONLY these charts at this range. The attachment below shows where the snow is predicted at t+42 so let's hope it is somewhere near as forecast for those inland (coastal snow is surely a no-no!)

I await the 9th January with further interest too and then an inevitable return to some westerly influence and finally a much colder last two weeks of January will then be beckoning.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

PS! Tonight could see some SLEETY SNOW in places as the front clears southeastwards too but I am not confident on this UNTIL NOWCASTING TIME.

Edited January 5, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Barometer Obama]

Hi Joneseye & GLTW.

I've not been on for a while GLTW so sorry I missed your earlier obs.

You both made some valid points, the Dam line on the GFS is nowhere near far enough south and the cold isn't embedded. Think it will be one to nowcast on the night.

I was very surprised when I saw the forecast this morning, it feels wrong. I reckon the met-office may retract the extent of the snow over the next 24 hours.

We shall see.....

[SunnySouthCoast]

I shall look forward to the heavy rain here

[slb97]

I shall look forward to the heavy rain here

Oh me too - I can't wait - have you seen that lovely lot coming in on the radar as we speak - I'm so excited I can't keep my eyes off the lampost

I think it was about this time last year that we had that fabulous snow event - shame we've got the PPN this time round but the wrong temperatures, never mind!

Edited January 5, 2011 by slb97

[Dorsetbred]

Hi Joneseye & GLTW.

I've not been on for a while GLTW so sorry I missed your earlier obs.

You both made some valid points, the Dam line on the GFS is nowhere near far enough south and the cold isn't embedded. Think it will be one to nowcast on the night.

I was very surprised when I saw the forecast this morning, it feels wrong. I reckon the met-office may retract the extent of the snow over the next 24 hours.

We shall see.....

MetO have already shifted their position, as they had yellows out for Thursday night into Friday morning, around midday today. Now that has moved well into Friday AM, and given the warming push I would think North of Brum would be good for some early snowfall, down here, as you say there's a distinct lack of cold air, and given we are due rain for 90% of Thursday, the ground will be far too damp for anything to settle, whilst temps remain too high.

[coldfingers]

I shall look forward to the heavy rain here

Yes, it looks like a rain, to heavy rain, to heavy windy rain event to me. <_<

However I think for the North of the region there is good reason to hope but then it will all be ruined by that spoilsport rain.

I will start showing more interest around the 17th when I think the weather could be getting a bit more like winter

.Temp is currently 7.7C with a high of 7.9C. That is never going to get cold enough for anything other than rain for most of West Sussex I would have thought.

Edited January 5, 2011 by coldfingers

[iowpompeylee]

rain all the way far south!!

[Cheese Rice]

Forecast

[SunnySouthCoast]

Oh me too - I can't wait - have you seen that lovely lot coming in on the radar as we speak - I'm so excited I can't keep my eyes off the lampost

I think it was about this time last year that we had that fabulous snow event - shame we've got the PPN this time round but the wrong temperatures, never mind!

Indeed it was exactly 1 year ago today, as it started snowing as I was taking my Xmas tree & decs down (just as I have been doing today)

Yes, it looks like a rain, to heavy rain, to heavy windy rain event to me.

However I think for the North of the region there is good reason to hope but then it will all be ruined by that spoilsport rain.

I will start showing more interest around the 17th when I think the weather could be getting a bit more like winter

.Temp is currently 7.7C with a high of 7.9C. That is never going to get cold enough for anything other than rain for most of West Sussex I would have thought.

A high of 8.2C here today, well this evening infact! Still aound 8C now too. Latest BBC forecast has said rain south of the M4 & temps as high as 11C on Friday.

I'm afraid we have two hopes of snow here & one of them is called Bob... :lol:

[SunnySouthCoast]

Looking truely mild next week, temperatures could hit 13C along the south coast by the middle of the week! Infact just across the channel in Caen it is 14C today!