Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

[Mark Neal]

Well temperature is just above freezing here : 0.2c , The Dew Point is0c, We had a few flurries this evening @ 6pm and 7:30pm which gave 1/2cm covering

I here there is reports of a Earthquake in Lancashire. coming through on bbc news 24..

Next few days colder days and drier conditions..

Can we keep the snow for xmas eve and xmas day>>>??

Mark Neal

Headington,Oxford

[Mole]

Its not over yet folks.

Looks like turning colder, with skies clearing and winds turning South Easterly by the end of the week, which will bring in much drier air eventually from the continent and get rid of this marginal for snow rubbish we on the coasts have had to put up with this cold spell.

Met office agree too

Cold with bright spells and some sleet or snow showers. Strong winds becoming light and variable by Saturday, then freshening from the southeast on Sunday with SNOW into Hampshire later.

Edited December 22, 2010 by Mole

[snow drift]

Its not over yet folks.

Looks like turning colder, with skies clearing and winds turning South Easterly by the end of the week, which will bring in much drier air eventually from the continent and get rid of this marginal for snow rubbish we on the coasts have had to put up with this cold spell.

Met office agree too

Cold with bright spells and some sleet or snow showers. Strong winds becoming light and variable by Saturday, then freshening from the southeast on Sunday with SNOW into Hampshire later.

Where have you seen this forecast? BBC hinted at watching a low over france may head our way.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well after another ICE DAY yesterday things are certainly not changing to anything remotely mild are they?

Personally I want to keep the festive snow and that is certainly highly likely judging by the models trends.

Most appear to be dumping the ECM/GFS etc. outputs in the bin and as for the last week or so the MetO is the model to rely on, well that's the case CF may have to come back out of hibernation come 2 days time.

Attached is one probable outcome and there is talk something more after Friday, just 2 days later on Boxing Day, as ever THE SAGA CONTINUES. Let's also try a MetO chart for just after Christmas and the trend from there on in looks interesting indeed.

It may be quieter for today but overnight some else pops up and that's the story of this winter, there's bucketloads of snow and bitter cold to come for many yet after the all too brief thawing. A GENERAL MELT AND SOME DRY WEATHER BEING THE STORY FOR MOST BETWEEN THE 24TH AND 26TH DECEMBER (some folk may well be able to travel for a change)

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Duane S.]

Where have you seen this forecast? BBC hinted at watching a low over france may head our way.

I suppose it could encroach southern most parts. Something to keep an eye on for sure but personally I think the area of HP over the UK will be a little too much for it. Maybe into the SE corner looks more likely.

[snow drift]

I suppose it could encroach southern most parts. Something to keep an eye on for sure but personally I think the area of HP over the UK will be a little too much for it. Maybe into the SE corner looks more likely.

I agree. Are you sitting in one particular model camp at the moment or are you sat in the middle of all 3?

Edited December 22, 2010 by snow drift

[SunnySouthCoast]

BBC weather hinting that heavy snow MAY edge into the south east & east anglia on Xmas Eve, so eastern parts of our region may get some.

[Mark Neal]

Been snowing here On and Off all morning here in Oxford:) just got a bit heavier now, this is really unexpected lol

Mark Neal

Headington,Oxford

Edited December 22, 2010 by Mark Neal

[Beasterly]

Snowing quite heavily here in Kidlington, Oxford.

[Mark Neal]

Snowing quite heavily here in Kidlington, Oxford.

Thats good its got a bit heavier out there, hopefully it comes this way . Currently 0.4c D.p 0.3c

Mark Neal

Headington,Oxford

Edited December 22, 2010 by Mark Neal

[katemart]

Had a very light snow flurry in Southampton at 11.30 for a few minutes - a nice surprise!

[SunnySouthCoast]

Nowt here & temperature up to 2.3C. Not had a single ice day so far this winter, mind you I haven't in the 10 years I have lived here

[jy]

Little in the way of a thaw today,unlike yesterday,cant do gardening job but getting plenty of snow clearing ect much needed,not sure what the near term holds but a major thaw appears unlikely.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well I'll be damned, I can't claim an ICE DAY today.

As of 1310GMT on this 22nd December 2010 the temperature at my location has FINALLY risen above freezing point.

This is after 8223 minutes of sub-freezing temperatures, the duration of which started on the 16th December at 2013GMT.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

PS! who you calling an anorak? should I get out more. Oh how I love the Statistics my Davis VP2 gives me during this HISTORIC WINTER OF 2010/11.

Looks like more snow for the SE mob in less than 36 hours time!

Edited December 22, 2010 by gottolovethisweather

[Mark Neal]

Good while it lasted aye!, Currently 0.6 here and D.P 0.4c, Cloudy skies... i just want it to go below freezing so i can keep the snow for christmas...

Mark Neal

Headington,Oxford

P.s 3 different ways a chief forecaster has gone for. in the development of that high from south west.... after xmas..

1. The milder air scores an easy victory and a rapid thaw ensues by Tuesday after a short spell of snow.

2. The front stalls down the middle of the UK giving a prolonged snowfall in places then fizzles out with only a limited incursion of less cold air resulting.

3. The front never even makes it across the Irish Sea and we stay in the cold regime with little or no snow resulting.

Edited December 22, 2010 by Mark Neal

[gottolovethisweather]

Just a thought but as we all know weather patterns are very cyclical. I would therefore like to point you to a post that I entered on the "way above me" thread concerning the stratosphere and I would like your thoughts on this?

Post no. 282 is the one I'm referring to but It'd pay you to read back a post or two too. The link is http://forum.netweat...h/page__st__272

As you know I'm expecting this winter to run and run in terms of bitter cold and many more snow days but we will see.

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 22, 2010 by gottolovethisweather

[Mark Neal]

Just a thought but weather patterns are very cyclical as we know and I would like to point you alkl to a post that I did on the "way above me" thread on the stratosphere but feel free to comment.

My post is no. 282 but it pays to read back a post or two too http://forum.netweat...h/page__st__272

As you know I'm expecting this winter to run and run in terms of bitter cold and many more snow days but we will see.

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

Very Good Post, i hope that it returns in 2011 in January, i can see though once the milder weather gets in. it wont go easily.

I hope that the christmas period will be a good one and you enjoy yourself's !!

Mark Neal

Headington,Oxford

[trekka]

Evening, snow fans

Anyone keeping a close eye on the mass over France at the moment? It seems to be building strength and slowly (but surely) edging northwards :smiliz23:

[snowdog]

Yep Snow Dog is watching that Precip too. It is painfully slow though, could this be the biggest snow event for 200 years?

[butler_son]

Yep Snow Dog is watching that Precip too. It is painfully slow though, could this be the biggest snow event for 200 years?

It would need to actually be snow first! With a temp of 0.8 here, I wouldn't be so sure. And to be the biggest snow event of the last 200 hours it would have to dump more than 5 inches...you're gonna have to give this some billing, Snow Dog!

[Mark Neal]

Well my wish has came true, the skies have now cleared and the temp has gone from 0.6c at 4;30- - -0.1 @ 5:05pm

Interesting to here that a big mass is moving northwards through France.. Any links to any sites which would show this from aerial view.

Mark Neal

Headington,Oxford

[trekka]

Well my wish has came true, the skies have now cleared and the temp has gone from 0.6c at 4;30- - -0.1 @ 5:05pm

Interesting to here that a big mass is moving northwards through France.. Any links to any sites which would show this from aerial view.

Mark Neal

Headington,Oxford

Although not that accurate (and you're not seeing all of it), it is showing on Rain Today.

Edited December 22, 2010 by trekka

[Polar Bear]

.. Any links to any sites which would show this from aerial view.

Mark Neal

Headington,Oxford

hello mark neal....i think Gottolovetheweather has posted some on his posts.... but try maybe ere? dont know if any good though for what you want....

http://www.meteociel...o/satellite.php

EDIT...or this one....?

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/radar/europe.html

Edited December 22, 2010 by Polar Bear

[Duane S.]

I agree. Are you sitting in one particular model camp at the moment or are you sat in the middle of all 3?

UKMO has been outstanding throughout this cold spell and is the only model now that has been consistently showing a continuation to the cold. This model has often been the messenger of doom when all others have been showing the much fabled 'BFTE' through from +240 to +144 so when it robustly holds back the Atlantic day in day out it needs to be given some notice. Last week I posted to look out for low pressure edging in from our SE and ridging starting to emerge from the NE for about Wednesday this week, again it was the UKMO that had the best handle on where we are now, 5 days ago. That said I don't think we are going to be thrust back into the extreme conditions of the past 2 weeks between now and the new year (and I think we may JUST dip out on the December CET record), but after then I am becoming more and more convinced that it will have been a transient interlude which will be followed by an impressive and fairly abrupt reload of sorts. As has been the way in recent times the poor old tropospheric polar vortex hardly has time to establish itself before getting ripped to shreds!

As for that mass of PPN moving up through N. France, I'd love for it to be a player but I suspect it won't be, those in the IOW may be best placed from our region if it does head further West than it looks like it will.

[Polar Bear]

Hello all you wonderful people on this CS thread...

hope you are all good? Havent read properly your post yet S4Lancia but will do in a second and once i have got my dins..but I think some of you good people on here were warming up the potential of heavy snow in SE Thursday and Friday. It seems that this has changed over the last our and there is alot more chat on the SE thread on this (sorry I did have to have a wee peek on there but The CS thread is still my one and only group to talk to and get the bestest bestest knoweldge and friendly chat...)..

Anyway Markysussex I think it was mentioned about the fact that the Chief Forecaster had written it would be heavy snowfall in SE; but the factg that he had done that maybe was a sign of a bit more certaintly; or confidence....I cant remember the exact words...the post is here but I found that interesting....

http://forum.netweat..._gopid__2008237

My question is though to you (I will read your post above so you may answer it) is what do you think about this....and how far over the coast will it reach? ie, I am thinking for Coldfingers.....

Also my dp is now in negative numbers in DewPoint,,, temps still about 1.9 and DP -0.2 is that significant having a negative DP?

I will go and get my dins now and come back and catch up...

PS I apologise if my english on my posts isnt great tonight - but was out at the Christmas do last night . ..came in at 5am so I am a little at sorts! :wacko:

:smiliz19:

Edited December 22, 2010 by Polar Bear