South West England & Channel Islands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 16

[fromey]

Terrible model output from the GFS regarding cold. This winter is really turning out to a winter of two halves at the moment. January is looking to be very mild (for winter) and once Jan is out the way only

four weeks till the end of winter.

Disappointing dosent really sum up my feelings at the moment. Oh well, better get out and enjoy the warm sunshine over the next ten days.........YES it will be warm sat in the sunshine in a sheltered location.

im sorry 4 weeks left till the end of winter .

again as per my rant yesterday, why is everybody taking every single run as gosspel, dear god!!!!.

yes it going to get mild, but that should be has far as anybody should be looking at the moment.

i wish the models were blocked past 120hrs so nobody would see them!!!

fromey

[Frosty_wsm]

im sorry 4 weeks left till the end of winter .

again as per my rant yesterday, why is everybody taking every single run as gosspel, dear god!!!!.

My thoughts exactly, at least I'm finding out who on here is a novice model watcher and who are the more experienced model watchers who aren't silly enough to take every model run as gospel, one thing I find funny is those people whose mood swings as much as the models do when dealing with cold outlook, like a few weeks ago lol.

Bring on the mild I say, be nice out there in any sunshine & today is an example, clear blue skies, oh and on the subject of mild, you wont find me writing off the rest of winter just because the models are showing mild for the next week or two, they might be right or we could find ourselves breaking out of the mild spell sooner.

[kumquat]

Game over. see you next year.

"This winter is really turning out to a winter of two halves at the moment."

The first half was cold and dry for me. What will the second half bring?

Edited January 9, 2011 by kumquat

[dogs32]

two posts from two major sites

Will the cold 'reload'?

I can't see a return to any 'major' outbreak of intense arctic air the like of which we have recently experienced. It is likely that conditions and temperatures will 'seesaw' as the flow and pressure pattern alternates between source regions; there is the potential for a drier, colder, settled anticyclonic period through the latter stages of January into the beginning of February before the Atlantic once again takes the upper hand.

.......................

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Jan 2011 to Monday 7 Feb 2011:

Unsettled and sometimes windy weather is expected through this period, with showers or longer spells of rain. This is likely to turn to snow at times, especially in the north and over high ground in the south. Some drier and brighter interludes are also expected, but with the risk of sharp frosts and overnight fog. Temperatures are expected to be generally near or below average, perhaps well below average at times across northeastern parts of England and Scotland, though a few milder days are possible at first, especially in the south

not looking good folks if you love snow :smiliz19:

though reality is things could change quickly and go the other way...but no show at present

Edited January 9, 2011 by dogs32

[Cymro]

Rob McElwee's last shift is tonight folks - last forecast is at 10.52pm BBC One End of an Era.

[weathe20]

im sorry 4 weeks left till the end of winter .

again as per my rant yesterday, why is everybody taking every single run as gosspel, dear god!!!!.

yes it going to get mild, but that should be has far as anybody should be looking at the moment.

i wish the models were blocked past 120hrs so nobody would see them!!!

fromey

After Jan, it is Feb. Feb usually lasts four weeks, after Feb its March. Generally after Feb we are looking towards Spring for warmth not cold.

This is not due to one single run, this is a consistant output from the GFS.

Game over. see you next year.

"This winter is really turning out to a winter of two halves at the moment."

The first half was cold and dry for me. What will the second half bring?

Yes same for me mate, not sure why you are quoting me. January so far is mild, and is looking mild towards the end of the month too. So if Feb turns out the same as Jan, that makes end of Nov and December cold, and Jan/Feb mild/mildish (maybe).

Still dont understand the quoting Kumquat and Fromey if you read my post im talking about after Jan, ie Feb - 4 weeks of our typical last month of 'Winter'.

Seems people jump on my posts but nobody ever seems to comment on the model output which is all I comment on.

Edited January 9, 2011 by weathe20

[Bristawl Si]

again as per my rant yesterday, why is everybody taking every single run as gosspel, dear god!!!!.

Erm, i'm not - the models have been showing much the same weather forecast for the next 10/14 days for a few days runs now - so hardly looking at a single run.

I'm only writing off the next 2 weeks at the mo for cold and snow in our part of the world...............for now!

[weathe20]

Erm, i'm not - the models have been showing much the same weather forecast for the next 10/14 days for a few days runs now - so hardly looking at a single run.

I'm only writing off the next 2 weeks at the mo for cold and snow in our part of the world...............for now!

Quite agree. As I just said, people seem to comment on peoples posts because we mention mild but dont actually look at the models themselves.

[fromey]

mild or cold its the weather, and after all its winter so what is wrong with wanting cold weather.

mild at this time of year with southwest winds can bring low cloud, mist, drizzle, wind and rain75% of the time, and really thats not my favorite type of weather.

i do look at the models, i look for trends compare stats, listern to the what everybody has to say, i then make my own mind up, i dont go putting up "winter is over" posts up just because its going to be mild for the next 10 days, i keep an open mind, things can and will often change in terms of the weather.

and as i said before it really gets on my nerves with the one liners, gut feelings and hunches.

49 days left till the end of feb and 77 days till british summer time begins

fromey

[kumquat]

After Jan, it is Feb. Feb usually lasts four weeks, after Feb its March. Generally after Feb we are looking towards Spring for warmth not cold.

This is not due to one single run, this is a consistant output from the GFS.

Yes same for me mate, not sure why you are quoting me. January so far is mild, and is looking mild towards the end of the month too. So if Feb turns out the same as Jan, that makes end of Nov and December cold, and Jan/Feb mild/mildish (maybe).

Still dont understand the quoting Kumquat and Fromey if you read my post im talking about after Jan, ie Feb - 4 weeks of our typical last month of 'Winter'.

Seems people jump on my posts but nobody ever seems to comment on the model output which is all I comment on.

I think I'm simply agreeing with you. A winter of two halves. First half was cold and dry (dry for me). Second half looks to be milder at the moment. Just ran through the gfs 12z. Apart from a couple of colder incursions via a northwesterly it looks pretty standard winter fare - back to the 90's setup.

[jethro]

Snow or no snow, it's been a beautiful weekend here, the sunniest it's been in a long time, no biting wind and bone dry. If this is what is on offer as an alternative to snow, I'll gladly take it.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Yup was a lovely sunny day here, although the frost remained on the grass and select spots all day. It has certainly gone cold again tonight so I expect another frost, perhaps the last for a while. But loving the sunshine! Actually able to get out and enjoy it.

[kumquat]

Snow or no snow, it's been a beautiful weekend here, the sunniest it's been in a long time, no biting wind and bone dry. If this is what is on offer as an alternative to snow, I'll gladly take it.

I agree with that - just been for a walk around the harbour in Bristol - a stunning afternoon.

[Rich_Clements]

Gorgious weather in Plymouth at lunchtime, shame I couldn't stay longer to enjoy it.

Lots of salt spreading going on, on the motorways.

Edited January 9, 2011 by Tribe3000

[Nights King]

As winter days go today was not a bad one.

Frost dawn til dusk is always a nice thing to see in winter with top temperature of just 2c

Shame we have to endure 2 weeks of crap now, just wish warm didnt mean wet all the time in winter!.

[weathe20]

I know its FI and probably wont happen, but I would like the GFS to keep showing something like this. A nice cold NW, good for our region.

Edited January 9, 2011 by weathe20

[Jane Louise]

What's so crap about this weather? It's been gorgeous today! How can anyone not appreciate the sunshine is beyond me!! The cold spell still has time to return right into April. No need for anybody (and NO I am not pointing the finger at anyone specific) to get peed off because the weather isn't the way you want it to be!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I think it was aimed at the idea of 2 weeks of rain... surely no one likes rain on that sort of scale?

[Nights King]

I know its FI and probably wont happen, but I would like the GFS to keep showing something like this. A nice cold NW, good for our region.

Looks marginal to me! although sea temps are in our favour this year.

I think it was aimed at the idea of 2 weeks of rain... surely no one likes rain on that sort of scale?

Yes your right I pointed out how nice it was in the sentance above it.

Rian is the worst espec when you work outside.

[weathe20]

Looks marginal to me! although sea temps are in our favour this year.

Looks pretty good to me! -5 uppers, strong NW flow, snow showers. Lets see if this continues to show for the period of 21st Jan onwards.

[Nights King]

Looks pretty good to me! -5 uppers, strong NW flow, snow showers. Lets see if this continues to show for the period of 21st Jan onwards.

Yes but shower activity would not be great with lower sst's and only -5 uppers? Then they have to get all the way over the welch mountains which leaves you with.... didly squat.

Would look better if we had colder 850's and more of a westerly draw to avoid them welch mountains. would also help your bristol streamers.

Not that this chart would ever come to fruition.

Edited January 9, 2011 by mullender83

[legritter]

hi ,spent 2 hrs in the garden today , chilly but enjoyed .some of my shrubs have been damaged like last yr .im still hoping for a cold period in about 10 days time . im hoping the charts can keep that hope alive .anyhow plenty of time left . :good:

[Nights King]

hi ,spent 2 hrs in the garden today , chilly but enjoyed .some of my shrubs have been damaged like last yr .im still hoping for a cold period in about 10 days time . im hoping the charts can keep that hope alive .anyhow plenty of time left . :good:

I was clearing away dead and damaged plants today at work although we had so many I needed a skip to to remove them and filled it twice over! Some other plants that may still die yet but need a few more weeks to see if they will come through. Some of them include hypericum's, pitosporums, deuzia, hibiscus and many more, some of which are very hardy but prolonged frozen periods kill evergreen plants like choisia ternata's especially because they dry out in windy condidions as plant cannot take up water from the frozen compost.:unsure:

I just looked at local forecast and looks like im going to enjoy working outside for a while now.... 15 days is a row with rain every day.

[legritter]

hi mullender 83.how do i highlight a post like you highlighted mine . im only learning :unsure:

[dogs32]

hi mullender 83.how do i highlight a post like you highlighted mine . im only learning :unsure:

click on reply to Mullinders post :smiliz19:

...........

Mullinder wants me to rename this thread to The Uk's HeatWave :w00t:

Edited January 9, 2011 by dogs32