Yorkshire, Lincs And The Pennines - Cold Spell Discussion 13

[The PIT]

An air frost here as well but nothing out of the ordinary. Normal temps by day yesterday was milder no frost and 3.3c to wake up too.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Currently -5c here, lovely when its full moon and it lights up the frosty fields near my house, have had 4 days of clear blue skies now, definitely second best to snowy weather

[grab my graupel]

Hi Brian,

don't suppose you know of a small temple (folly) on top of a hill just outside Hovingham?

Vizzy

Hi Vizzy, I'm not sure myself mate, but I'll ask the Mrs who is more familiar with the surrounding area than

I am.

Very cold start today, with temps down to -8 out in the countryside.

[Richie V]

Still -1.4c here, looking like an ice day

[Lewis]

Hi guys,

Have not posted in here for a fair while, very quiet indeed.

Looks like the settled period will continue, with HP in charge.

No strong indications as of yet, if we will pick up a continental pattern in the form of LP systems to the N or NE, bringing a colder North/North easterly feed. Slight chance of this occurring into Feb. Although the pattern is fairly locked in at the moment, with the Atlantic pushing back in as the HP topples later into the period.

Lewis

[cheshire snow]

acording to the bbc website updated at 00.28 there is going to be a heavy snow shower for Manchester

good heavens what is going on.................

C.S

[abbaman]

acording to the bbc website updated at 00.28 there is going to be a heavy snow shower for Manchester

good heavens what is going on.................

C.S

As I was in manchester today no ****** snow at all so the BBC are just had a grimlen in the computer. So we need to post a note on thier weather site.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Any experts got any views regarding this brief easterly on wednesday if the models varify? Wonder if theres a chance of some snow showers pushing in from the coast, would they be heavy? how far would they get inland? Got wednesday off so may take a trip to the north york moors!

[reef]

Any experts got any views regarding this brief easterly on wednesday if the models varify? Wonder if theres a chance of some snow showers pushing in from the coast, would they be heavy? how far would they get inland? Got wednesday off so may take a trip to the north york moors!

I doubt they'll provide anything of note. Showers would generally be light in nature and a wintry mix in most places. It looks alright for the North York Moors but I doubt we'll be seeing much in the way of accumulations even up there.

More likely is just cloudy and cool weather with occasional light wintry showers. It all depends on the finer details as theres still quite a range of temperatures being progged on the ensembles. Either way it'll be more interesting than the majority of the rest of the month!

[NorthYorksWeather]

I doubt they'll provide anything of note. Showers would generally be light in nature and a wintry mix in most places. It looks alright for the North York Moors but I doubt we'll be seeing much in the way of accumulations even up there.

More likely is just cloudy and cool weather with occasional light wintry showers. It all depends on the finer details as theres still quite a range of temperatures being progged on the ensembles. Either way it'll be more interesting than the majority of the rest of the month!

Not really that fussed about seeing anything significant, especially as the roads up there can be treacherous even after a small covering, i chase most snow which comes within 50 miles of my house and havent done that since december so im really itching to get out and see something wintry even if it is just a wee shower

[Lewis]

Will it, won't it snow? is what probably is on many of your minds.

As we enter Wednesday the HP that's been sat over the UK for some time, slips every slightly Northwards.

The Northwards shift is important, why?

The further the HP shifts Northwards, pressure across Yorkshire Lincolnshire southwards will become much lower, in the form of a continental Easterly feed. With moderate to slack isobars at times, blowing some precipitation across Coastal areas, more particular so to EA and SE areas.

Now, what we do want is the HP to continue it's trend further North, as this will increase the chances of the colder air pushing East, and not mixing out with the slightly warmer upper 850's associated with the HP system. Not only that, the simple rule applied;

- HP, no precipitation

-LP precipitation

If you end up with HP to the North, and LP to the south, the precipitation will be patchier and isolated as you get to the Northern Extent of the LP ( Just before the boundary of the HP system ).

So at the moment, North Yorkshire is the Northern most extent for precipitation to be likely, any further north than that and the HP will kill off any precipitation.

As you can see on Wednesdays chart, they may be some precipitation across NE areas, but as the LP slips away and the HP sinks back southwards, the flow will be cut off pretty quickly.

The next big question, where will the precipitation be, will it be snow, are conditions supportive? I'll show some charts below, but let me remind you, the GFS model that we all access freely on: http://www.netweathe...b720ea40b539f57 is at a much lower resolution, although a fantastic resource, it's hard to determine conditions or exacts on a more localized scale, hence why I recommend and "use myself" Net Weather Extra, which holds the NMM model, which is at a much higher resolution, we'll be coming into the NMM model range tomorrow evening, so I'll post some charts then. If you want to grab Netweather Extra and see what all the fuss is about the link is here: https://www.netweath...gi-bin/login.pl

O.K so we have -5 upper 850 temps to start, as the HIGH slips Northwards we introduce colder upper 850's from the east, -7 to -8 typically for many eastern areas, with the -10 to -11 upper 850's boundary encroaching SE england and parts of EA. Remember the further North that HP get's the better!

Precipitation will be patchier in nature, it normally is from an easterly like this, year on year believe it or not we never actually get a proper easterly, this is a common type of easterly with HP to the North, slowly sinking back down to cut off the feed.

This easterly, although brief, is an actual "easterly" as you can see the source/flow right to Russia on the above chart. Normally when people say "we have get an easterly" most of the time, it's a North easterly, from a LP system, as the LP sinks in the North Sea and the way it orientates winds back E/ESE or ENE, the source still comes from the NE of the near continent.

Anyhow enough of that! it's going to get colder, with snow possible for some, the dew points are favorable, as is the thickness, ideally you want SUB 528 DAM but even 530 or 532 is enough.

Dew points:

Thickness

Only worry from me is due to the nature of the precipitation possibly being light to moderate at best, the 0C isotherm may be a problem, so you may end up with a wintry mix at times, and snow during heavier bursts, of course though, these are at a much lower resolution, so i'll wait until the NMM model becomes in range and give you guys an update.

Generally you want the 0C isotherm at around 150-250m's, 0m is obviously the best. If it's heavier precipitation the 0c isotherm height can be slightly higher, as this will drop anyhow during heavier precipitation.

0c Isotherm

My conclusion (as it stands based on the 12z)

Turning colder Wednesday as winds switch to an easterly direction, colder uppers 850's pushing from the East, a raw feel with the wind chill factor feeling more notable than of late. Showers, mainly light in nature affecting coastal areas across Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, and as we had further south into EA and the SE of England becoming more widespread and slightly heavier in nature.

Accumulations? Would not even take a guess, as Easterlies can either deliver, or fail big time. If you want my honest opinion, I would love to live in Kent come Wednesday, as the Kent Coast line will fair best.

We need to keep an eye on that HP as each run, its heading further Northwards, and the upper 850's are getting colder.

Hope this post was useful, I'll do an update tomorrow.

Kind Regards,

Lewis

[Harsh Climate]

Any precipitation will be too light to even bother thinking about. And looking at the predicted 0 isotherm on wed/thu, it certainly is not fabourable for any lying snow in eastern parts of our region.. Maybe for a time in western parts, but the precipitation amounts especially there will be too trivial.

[grab my graupel]

A small Snow risk for some of us. However, as HC said, precipitation amounts will be very small

[Craigers]

A small Snow risk for some of us. However, as HC said, precipitation amounts will be very small

Paul hudson said slight dusting in places and doncaster and wakefield area had most of the ppn

[Terminal Moraine]

Sleet showers here this afternoon. Normally I wouldn't bother mentioning it at this time of year but any small straw to clutch at will do.

[grab my graupel]

A frosty start here, with temperatures down to -2c. There are also reports of freezing fog in the area, so driving will be quite nasty this morning

[Love Snow]

Cold start to the day -2 !! Looks like we had a light wintry dusting over night as the cars were covered this morning.

[grab my graupel]

Cold start to the day -2 !! Looks like we had a light wintry dusting over night as the cars were covered this morning.

Just been out to inspect the garden, and it appears that there is a slight dusting of Graupel

[NW Leeds Russ]

Was snowing lightly last nite about 9.30pm in Pudsey.

Woke up to dusting on cars, grass pavements etc and enough for the snow scraper to get to work on the car windscreen :lol:

The top of the Chevin in to Otley at 800ft asl was very wintry this morning; snow cover, fog and temp -3c.

[Cheese Rice]

Yep second dusting in a row, todays was quite decent as you couldn't see the ground. A few patches have survived through the day.

Max temp: 1.6.c

Current: -2.7c

[disco-barry]

Clutching.....at.....straws, haha.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Just drove from York to Fridaythorpe and back over the Wolds and it was snowing lightly over the tops, left a small coating in most places, was nice to stop and stick full beam on and have a fag whilst watching the flakes fall. Minimum last night was an impressive -6.6c. The showers are falling as grapuel at sea level as its 0.8c in York.

[boyzie]

Woke up to a light dusting here in Keighley about 8.00am then started snowing again at 8.30 for about half an hour. Missed that on the forecast. I love to be surprised by snow, makes me happy for the rest of the day.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Woke up to a light dusting here in Keighley about 8.00am then started snowing again at 8.30 for about half an hour. Missed that on the forecast. I love to be surprised by snow, makes me happy for the rest of the day.

Yeh its always nice to be surprised. Funny how I spent all Wednesday chasing forecasted snow showers in the North York Moors yet I only saw sleet but last night I had no idea it was going to snow and I saw quite a decent snow shower

[boweswinter]

Very suprised to wake up to a covering of snow AGAIN this morning third time this week up here between Patley Bridge and Kirby Malzeard. Not near as much as there was on Friday morning though!