Yorkshire, Lincs And The Pennines - Cold Spell Discussion 13

[Cheese Rice]

Looks like Feb won't be completely snow-less, at least here. Shower that hit at 3PM was heavy snow/hail, with the lying snow line around 190M. Was quite nice to see lying snow even it was only brief.

[NW Leeds Russ]

Woke up to a coverng of wet snow on the cars, grass this morning.

After not seeing the forecast this weekend a pleasant suprise..

[Imp81]

Awoke to a frozen windscreen on my work van, made a change been a while , a dry but cloudy morning and a nipping breeze was noticeable, as clouds darkened and we had a short and sharp hail shower which made a refreshing change to nagging light drizzly rain which followed for around an hour max temp of 8.5 falling to 6 in the precipitation, i wish the saga in the model thread would make its mind up i have no amazing expectations but every time you feel like giving in hope a glimmer appears to be dashed yet again the next day for something vaguely wintry which for our region is an off chance

[grab my graupel]

I have to say, today's weather has been the worst possible. It's been cool and cloudy and not a hint of sunshine.

Totally boring

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Anyone got the latest 24 hr detailed output for the western Pennines ? Going by the 06z GFS and the latest Met Office updates there appears to be a possibility for a bit of snow first thing tomorrow ?

[cheese]

There is a chance of heavy snow in the early hours of Saturday morning.. even to lower levels, but will turn back to sleet and eventually rain. It would be the first snow of February so any snow is good enough. B)

[Cheese Rice]

There is a chance of heavy snow in the early hours of Saturday morning.. even to lower levels, but will turn back to sleet and eventually rain. It would be the first snow of February so any snow is good enough. B)

Its definitely a case of wait and see.

NAE/UKMO have 850's around -3.c with percip charts showing snow for this area. While GFS/ECM says no to anything wintry unless you live in the far NE.

BBC 5 day forecast is amazing compared to what it was showing a few days ago.

http://news.bbc.co.u.../2535?area=LS16 Temps around 2.c throughout the next five days with 10 hours of heavy snow forecast for tomorrow. Snow all day Monday as well.

If only th 5 day forecasts were ultra reliable....

Edit: Advisory now out for Central northern England, unfortunately for ground 300m+. Still time for change though and it wouldn't take much for the snow line to be lower than expected.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Edit: Only 1.9c here, been dropping all morning

Edit: 1.8c....

Edited February 18, 2011 by Swamp donkey

[cheese]

2.0c here, been steady all morning. We're actually the coldest place in the UK (excluding mountains).

[summer blizzard]

Its definitely a case of wait and see.

NAE/UKMO have 850's around -3.c with percip charts showing snow for this area. While GFS/ECM says no to anything wintry unless you live in the far NE.

BBC 5 day forecast is amazing compared to what it was showing a few days ago.

http://news.bbc.co.u.../2535?area=LS16 Temps around 2.c throughout the next five days with 10 hours of heavy snow forecast for tomorrow. Snow all day Monday as well.

If only th 5 day forecasts were ultra reliable....

Edit: Advisory now out for Central northern England, unfortunately for ground 300m+. Still time for change though and it wouldn't take much for the snow line to be lower than expected.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Edit: Only 1.9c here, been dropping all morning

Edit: 1.8c....

2C here which is lower than than the forecast maxima of 4C between 13:30 and 16:30.

In regards to tommorow the BBC have definitely upgraded with an all snow event for BD11. While amounts are likely to be small (the 6th March 2006 event was similar and yielded 6cm), it is a snow event none the less.

I am also very pleased with the forecast of snow on monday.

[summer blizzard]

Still 2C here with a depoint of 2C however Norwich is now reporting dewpoints of 0C so i am happy with how things are progressing thus far.

[summer blizzard]

FlyingDales on the east coast now down to 1C.

Frost possible before the front arrives methinks.

[Upgrade]

When is the snow likely to arrive?

I am driving up to Yorkshire from London in the morning from 6am, should hit BD area around 9am.

Lucky i have my snowchains!

[Cheese Rice]

When is the snow likely to arrive?

I am driving up to Yorkshire from London in the morning from 6am, should hit BD area around 9am.

Lucky i have my snowchains!

Around 3AM onwards. Off course all will depend on the elevation you will be at, if you some-how manage to stay below 100m (unlikely considering how hilly W Yorkshire is) you should okay, with wet snow or sleet likely. If it is wet snow throughout on low ground expect some very tricky conditions, as we all know lying wet snow is impossible to drive on.

Edited February 18, 2011 by Swamp donkey

[Upgrade]

Around 3AM onwards. Off course all will depend on the elevation you will be at, if you some-how manage to stay below 100m (unlikely considering how hilly W Yorkshire is) you should okay, with wet snow or sleet likely. If it is wet snow throughout on low ground expect some very tricky conditions, as we all know lying wet snow is impossible to drive on.

cheers swamp donkey. i am going to be up to around 300m. could be fun and games!

[Cheese Rice]

cheers swamp donkey. i am going to be up to around 300m. could be fun and games!

Well expect 10-20cm of the stuff!

[Winter Warmer]

good look to everyone expecting snow tonight

[Upgrade]

Well expect 10-20cm of the stuff!

wow!

[Cheese Rice]

A nice little upgrade.....

[Lewis]

A nice little upgrade.....

I just cannot see it happening.

Either I'm spot on the money, or forecasting to normal conditions and models are thrown out the window, I can't see where BBC are getting their ideas from, the only closest thing I can think of is that due to the conditions over the past day or two, the cold is locked under a boundary of low cloud other the past 2 days, cloud is classed as an insulator, so the cold at the surface has become trapped, that's the only thing i can think of.

Still think 10-15cm+ is a little silly though.

lewis

[A.J]

I just cannot see it happening.

Either I'm spot on the money, or forecasting to normal conditions and models are thrown out the window, I can't see where BBC are getting their ideas from, the only closest thing I can think of is that due to the conditions over the past day or two, the cold is locked under a boundary of low cloud other the past 2 days, cloud is classed as an insulator, so the cold at the surface has become trapped, that's the only thing i can think of.

Still think 10-15cm+ is a little silly though.

lewis

I would imagine the BBC are getting their 'ideas' from the met office, who are using their own Invent model...Whilst the GFS shies away from the idea of widespread snowfall apart from the highest parts of the Peninnes and Yorkshire moors, I also wouldn't be surprised to see reports of temp accumulations from areas at lower levels

Edited February 18, 2011 by ajpoolshark
grammatical

[Lewis]

<_<

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Temperature still falling here, currently 0.8c with a DP of -0.9c. The big question is how much further will it drop, and how much will it rise when the PPT arrives ???

[Lewis]

Temp here been 3.4 to 3.8c all day.

It's dropping off now, got a temp of 2.8c and slowly dropping. Dew point of 0c

lewis

[Cheese Rice]

Chilly here as well

1.2c DP -0/1c.

Tbh I don't know whether we will see much snow or not. The BBC said a few cm's to low ground, which suggests a wintry mixture.

I'm quite sure we will see something wintry, but how much remains to be seen....

Edit: 1.1c now

Edited February 18, 2011 by Swamp donkey

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

0.5c, DP -1.2c - still heading in the right direction