London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

[Neilsouth]

Croydon Council had a real blast at the MetO for bad forecasts over the winter period. Netweather should tender to do forecasts for Croydon Council at some point.

GFS 12Z is still ramping the very cold coming back next week. Here's some ramping charts

Why, they are no more reliable

Think the only guy i trust is GP

[yamkin]

Why, they are no more reliable

Think the only guy i trust is GP

I think all forecasting is prone to their ups and downs. GP is good.

UKMO has started to lean towards GFS. ECM still does not want to join the party. It will be interesting what the Country Tracks forecast have to say later on.

[Jayces]

The Meto is having none of it, no mention of cold for us in the next 30 days, if anything they think it will get milder!

Their LRF's can change at the drop of a hat though so we will wait and see but I can't shake that niggling feeling that this winter will be known for having a fantastic start but that was it and the rest being a damp squib.

I love the snow but I also like the warm sunshine so am looking forward to a slow rise in tempetatures over the next couple of months.

[95 Degrees]

Another fantastic day with plesent sunshine in a fresh Ne'rly and temperature now dropping rapidly at 4.1c, looks good for the next few days but sorry guys no more real cold this winter me thinks and charts keep chopping and changing but allways showing warmth in the long run

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

9th-17th shows temperatures below average

warming up ?

[yamkin]

GFS started the colder trend over a week ago, UKMO/ECM showed the opposite. GFS this time stuck to it's guns whilst UKMO started to back track towards GFS, but ECM was on it's own. ECM has now started to back track towards GFS. GFS is not as progressive with the cold/snowy conditions, but the colder theme is still there by the end of the week.

So, in a nutshell, ECM & UKMO have both back tracked towards GFS.

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

messy ensembles

gfs run on the warmer side

kontrol run very cold

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/brack4.gif

120 fax shows 528 dam line moving southwards

look to the north of the uk

very cold northerlies there.

what will they show tomorrow?

i think i will reserve commenting until tomorrow night

as too many differences in the models

[snow raven]

What a lovely sunny start to the day today. Even better is that I have today as annual leave

[Coast]

and there was white on the car this morning!!! (a frosty screen )

[Neilsouth]

wow is that the sun!, where have you been :drinks:

[Mike Storm]

yay it is very nice and bright.... my solar panels will have something to do for a change!

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

gfs was showing very cold weather a couple of days ago

for the 11th onwards.

now it is one of the warmest runs showing

a big scatter on the 12th so i would class that as fi

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=

tonights 120 fax will show saturdays chart

i think i will stick with these again for now

[john pike]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/nogaps/archives/2011030700/nogaps-0-150.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/bom/archives/2011030712/bom-0-144.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2011030612/ECM1-168.GIF

all have cold air over the whole of the uk

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030712-0-132.png

gfs says no

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

i think rollercoaste comes to mind

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030712-1-156.png

however gfs looks cold here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=1&runpara=0

maybe something a bit warmer at the end of the run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

cold air heading south but slower to do so

cold air stays further north which lets high pressure set in

warmish days cold nights towards the end of the run.

these are only for guides

i will update fax chart later

Edited March 7, 2011 by john pike

[yamkin]

LBC radio forecaster said it will turner colder by the weekend. GFS 12Z is showing wintry showers Sunday into Monday

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

met office forcast day 6-15

looks colder than previous outlooks

[yamkin]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

met office forcast day 6-15

looks colder than previous outlooks

Hi JP, MetO took their time updating their forecast to the public. It appears they e not going with the ECM. I will be interested in the Fax charts you post later on.

[snow raven]

LBC radio forecaster said it will turner colder by the weekend. GFS 12Z is showing wintry showers Sunday into Monday

Sorry Yamkin, but when will this straw clutching end?

[Snowangel-MK]

and there was white on the car this morning!!! (a frosty screen )

Well better frost than Seagull gunao

[95 Degrees]

Hi JP, MetO took their time updating their forecast to the public. It appears they e not going with the ECM. I will be interested in the Fax charts you post later on.

You should take the under-article down about an NAO happening in March according to US meteoroligists, as a negative NAO hasn't occured, yet.

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

where did that low come from?

also high pressure is way to the east of us which

should in theory let the weather from the north

travel further south

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

if the low crosses us and goes to the east it should

show something like this above

however gfs shows

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030718-0-144.png

low to the west

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2011030700/ECM1-168.GIF

ecm has no low

bom shows

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/bom/archives/2011030712/bom-0-150.png

low to our north east and north west

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=330&y=152&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

from the 12th i think we can say is a warm outlier

the overall ensembles should cold enough for wintry showers between 13th -15th

but to be honest i think fi is friday at present <_<

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

easier format to read

[JamesC]

Sorry Yamkin, but when will this straw clutching end?

Never? Isn't that why we love Yamkin. It will be mid summer and he'll be screaming about thundersnow!!!!

[Jayces]

Never? Isn't that why we love Yamkin. It will be mid summer and he'll be screaming about thundersnow!!!!

He will have the last laugh when we are at our BBQ's in July with 6 inches of lying snow

[yamkin]

You should take the under-article down about an NAO happening in March according to US meteoroligists, as a negative NAO hasn't occured, yet.

Are you regarding your post to the UK? If so, read my sig again

[john pike]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030818-5-120.png

jet stream is against us getting colder air

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=6

cold air coming down from the north gets pushed back

by high pressure from the south colder air may just get

here on 13th but very briefly

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=204

customary easterly 300 on then mega northerly at end of run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=0&carte=2000

looks dry to 13th with temperatures of about 8-10 degrees

night time frosts still possible

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=5

jet stream more favourable to pull colder air towards us

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=204

look at the cold air up north

this is all fi and will change.

snowydayz saturday looks dry 8 degrees very light southerly wind

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

will post ensembles shortly

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

not much to see here

and for fun :lol:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.png

Edited March 8, 2011 by john pike