London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

[Jayces]

Are you regarding your post to the UK? If so, read my sig again

I've just had a look at the WSI site and they seem to be suggesting that March will be warmer then normal and April colder then normal.

This would be another nail in the coffin for anymore wintry weather here in the South as colder then normal April would still be too warm for any snow I suspect.

Guess it's time to give the sledge back

[snowydayz]

JP, thanks for that, it's looking much better for the 12th for being outdoors especially to this time last week although a little bit of snow would have been fun!

I'm taking everything with me to cover all bases, warm clothes, waterproofs (SOUP) etc I may even shove the sun protection in LOL

Snowy

[95 Degrees]

I've just had a look at the WSI site and they seem to be suggesting that March will be warmer then normal and April colder then normal.

This would be another nail in the coffin for anymore wintry weather here in the South as colder then normal April would still be too warm for any snow I suspect.

Guess it's time to give the sledge back

You'd think so yeah, unless it does a 2008 with Snow in early april, there won't be any snow away from northern higher ground

[Coast]

Surprisingly its turning into another pleasant day here in Sussex. Not as clear as the previous two days but warmer and just as sunny - roll on April and beyond now!

[yamkin]

I've just had a look at the WSI site and they seem to be suggesting that March will be warmer then normal and April colder then normal.

This would be another nail in the coffin for anymore wintry weather here in the South as colder then normal April would still be too warm for any snow I suspect.

Guess it's time to give the sledge back

Yes, but did you read the rest of their summary? If not, see my sig Don't be too hasty, we could still get a very cold blast.

[yamkin]

Sorry Yamkin, but when will this straw clutching end?

Here's some more Snow Clutching GFS 12Z Charts All of us will most probably dismiss these wonderful charts only for them to come up trumps :lol:

Edited March 9, 2011 by yamkin

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

short post as not much to say

only notable thing is more rain spikes showing from 13th on

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030918-1-126.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030912-5-324.png

better jet stream position for cold followers

who wants a bet that the jet stream will wait until

near the end of the month to go south

then stick there again through the summer :wacko:

Edited March 10, 2011 by john pike

[yamkin]

Not enough time to attach charts right now

ECM 00Z into FI is showing a colder trend

GFS 06Z into FI is also showing a colder trend

It will be very interesting to see what both models show this evening

[snowfish]

Not enough time to attach charts right now

ECM 00Z into FI is showing a colder trend

GFS 06Z into FI is also showing a colder trend

It will be very interesting to see what both models show this evening

HIYA YAMKIN!

Looking at the GFS it shows plenty of eye candy regarding cold with a high out to the east retrogressing nicely northwards to bring down the cold it is outside of the reliable FI timeframe and would need another four runs or so to become a trend for me....Let's see tho' for now this thread will probably be quite quiet given there isn't anything that interesting in the output other than what you have posted about lol!

[Jayces]

YES!

Bring it on baby!!

Just heard it might snow next Winter

YIPEE

Awww, come on, it's as likely to happen as any more snow for us this winter

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

15th to 17th could hit 14 or 15 degrees

does not last long though as from the 21st temperature

drops below average again

quite a few members hinting at cooler-colder weather

in fi again

[Jayces]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

15th to 17th could hit 14 or 15 degrees

does not last long though as from the 21st temperature

drops below average again

quite a few members hinting at cooler-colder weather

in fi again

Didn't see the link when it was the 18z but now it's the 0z and to me it shows more members above average then below throughout the run.

Pretty much 50 / 50 what the weather holds for the forseeable future in FI it would seem.

[JamesC]

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110311/06/105/ukmaxtemp.png

Looking nice for next week!! 16 degree's! W00P

[yamkin]

UKMO & ECM are in agreement for colder conditions setting in from 144h.

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=1&runpara=0

fi again on 18z is cold

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

ecm looks cold at end of run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

wednesday shows an easterly but no cold air to tap into

monday looks wet

tuesday and wednesday look cloudy and dull

i would have thought not as warm as the ensembles were showing last night

will post ensembles soon

i have been watching the earthquake and realise how deadly mother nature can be

lets hope the death toll is not as high as it would seem

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

still showing quite warm 15th to 17th i evpect if its cloudy them days temperatures

will reach about 10 degrees and not 15 degrees showing

big scatter round the 19th so unsure at present

there are still quite a few colder runs showing on the 18z run

Edited March 11, 2011 by john pike

[yamkin]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=1&runpara=0

fi again on 18z is cold

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

ecm looks cold at end of run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

wednesday shows an easterly but no cold air to tap into

monday looks wet

tuesday and wednesday look cloudy and dull

i would have thought not as warm as the ensembles were showing last night

will post ensembles soon

i have been watching the earthquake and realise how deadly mother nature can be

lets hope the death toll is not as high as it would seem

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

still showing quite warm 15th to 17th i evpect if its cloudy them days temperatures

will reach about 10 degrees and not 15 degrees showing

big scatter round the 19th so unsure at present

there are still quite a few colder runs showing on the 18z run

GME 0Z is on it's own this morning. It's going for a much colder outlook

Edited March 12, 2011 by yamkin

[nanu]

GME 0Z is on it's own this morning. It's going for a much colder outlook

Damn!! and there was me getting the sun lotion ready

[yamkin]

Damn!! and there was me getting the sun lotion ready

GFS 06Z is showing colder conditions with snow in FI

I'm not going to post any charts as GFS likes to tease us

I'm going with GME at the moment as it does not tease. Germans see their model as very good, so let's see how it pans out in a few hours time.

The latest MetO update days 3-5, 6-15, 16-30 show the UK will be on the cold side.

Edited March 12, 2011 by yamkin

[Jayces]

GFS 06Z is showing colder conditions with snow in FI

I'm not going to post any charts as GFS likes to tease us

I'm going with GME at the moment as it does not tease. Germans see their model as very good, so let's see how it pans out in a few hours time.

The latest MetO update days 3-5, 6-15, 16-30 show the UK will be on the cold side.

Seeing as it's FI and we know snow can't be reliably forecast beyond a few days out then why get excited?

As for the Meto updates, the word cooler East coast is mentioned in the 3-5, night time frosts possible for the South in the 6-15 and temperatures near normal in the 16-30.

As entertaining as the ramping is I really think it is a lost cause now i'm afraid. Anything remotely wintery is staying in FI and will not come to pass until next winter.

Was a lovely day today, i'd even go as far as saying the sunshine was warm.

[yamkin]

Seeing as it's FI and we know snow can't be reliably forecast beyond a few days out then why get excited?

As for the Meto updates, the word cooler East coast is mentioned in the 3-5, night time frosts possible for the South in the 6-15 and temperatures near normal in the 16-30.

As entertaining as the ramping is I really think it is a lost cause now i'm afraid. Anything remotely wintery is staying in FI and will not come to pass until next winter.

Was a lovely day today, i'd even go as far as saying the sunshine was warm.

Might as well get excited with FI as it does not materialise in the end most of the time :lol:

Once March & April are out of the way, then I'll stop ramping here and there. I still believe we have more colder periods before hanging up the boots for winter 2011/2012.

Edited March 12, 2011 by yamkin

[john pike]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011031206-1-336.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011031206-1-360.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011031206-1-384.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011031206-1-384.png

fi and unlikely to happen but the charts are there and winter does

not officially finish until the 21st

Edited March 12, 2011 by john pike

[yamkin]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011031206-1-336.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011031206-1-360.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011031206-1-384.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011031206-1-384.png

fi and unlikely to happen but the charts are there and winter does

not officially finish until the 21st

BOM 12Z shows cooler conditions from 162h

Much colder from 234h & 240h

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=1&archive=0

fi and not likely to come off

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=5

jet stream looks better

fi again looks cold

can i say it first

if only it was january :-)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

ecm not as keen on colder conditions

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

sunday wet

monday am wet pm dry

tuesday and wednesday could be fairly warm

but will depend on cloud cover

ensembles to follow

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

massive scatter from 19th

even worse 22nd-23rd on

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

warmer to 18th

big drop on 19th

too much scatter to be sure afterwoods