London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

[95 Degrees]

liking the weather currently, plenty of sun and even the first slight frost for a month a low of -0.6c overnight! will be watching the charts to see if an upcoming cold shot vertifies

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=6&size=0

just thought i would post this

helps by showing how different some of the models

are in the same timeframe

will post later on the 18z and fax

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

still high pressure all the way so dry and chilly

except a front on saturday night which could give some

light precipitation.

we may see some sun but will probably be mainly overcast

the 120 fax still shows the set up for a north westerly

later on but will come into view in 2-3 days

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1264.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1264.png

shows the northerly digging although not quite affecting the south east

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2282.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2284.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.png

sunday 13th long way out but would give snow to us down here

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn30017.png

wednesday 16th again long way out but cold still

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.29554655870445&lon=-0.5660377358490578

interesting from the 9th

also a lot of colder members showing again

looks even better here

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

mean temperature shows -5 on there

just need it a little lower and i will be more confident

of snow instead of sleety snow mix

Edited March 3, 2011 by john pike

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=252&mode=0&runpara=0

sorry but had to do this

now thats what i call a proper winter storm

Edited March 4, 2011 by john pike

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/raw_temp_c.html#picture

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentraleGFSforecast.htm

cannot see anything warm on these at present

will update 18z later

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gem/archives/2011030412/gem-0-138.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2011030412/J144-21.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=138&size=0

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030412-0-144.png

interesting how close these are

Edited March 4, 2011 by john pike

[john pike]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-120.png 9th

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-108.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-132.png 10th

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-1-132.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-150.png 11th

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-1-150.png

a selection of cold gfs 18z charts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

120 fax shohs 528 dam air over north of uk

a couple more frames of 120 should show the north westerly showing

and cold air covering the whole of the uk

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/03/04/basis18/ukuk/rart/11030918_2_0418.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/03/04/basis18/ukuk/rart/11031018_2_0418.gif

sorry had to finish on a ramp

Edited March 4, 2011 by john pike

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=2

towards the end of the run gfs shows a customery easterly

one day maybe

[yamkin]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-120.png 9th

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-108.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-132.png 10th

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-1-132.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-150.png 11th

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-1-150.png

a selection of cold gfs 18z charts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

120 fax shohs 528 dam air over north of uk

a couple more frames of 120 should show the north westerly showing

and cold air covering the whole of the uk

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/03/04/basis18/ukuk/rart/11030918_2_0418.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/03/04/basis18/ukuk/rart/11031018_2_0418.gif

sorry had to finish on a ramp

GFS showed similar amazing synoptics a few weeks ago and most really thought we were in for a cold and snowy period only for it to back track towards ECM.

I'm sure the GFS will come up trumps eventually. Why not this time I say. I said a few posts back that we should see what the big three models show this weekend. I've got that warm feeling that GFS is on the money this time around.

It's time to start ramping a little more :D :cold:

Edited March 4, 2011 by yamkin

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2011030412/J192-21.GIF

just for snowydayz

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=322&y=150

ensemble mean goes between -5 to -10

from the 9th to the 12th with precipitation

should be cold enough for snow

we are only talking 4 days away

hello yamkin i feel if we are showing what the models

are showing why not have a little ramp?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

look better in this format

[yamkin]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2011030412/J192-21.GIF

just for snowydayz

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=322&y=150

ensemble mean goes between -5 to -10

from the 9th to the 12th with precipitation

should be cold enough for snow

we are only talking 4 days away

hello yamkin i feel if we are showing what the models

are showing why not have a little ramp?

I'm very surprised with the MetO's latest forecasts over the next few days/weeks. Put it this way, Croydon Council have been TOLD to make sure their gritters are ready.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the MetO's forecasts change towards the GFS colder trend.

[john pike]

I'm very surprised with the MetO's latest forecasts over the next few days/weeks. Put it this way, Croydon Council have been TOLD to make sure their gritters are ready.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the MetO's forecasts change towards the GFS colder trend.

hello yamkin i am surprised too

although people think of the 18z as the pub run for

its wild swings,for the last 8 days the model has picked up

on this cold spell from the 9th with very good consistency.

i think in my opinion gfs is very good at predicting

northerlys so i have more confidence in this rather

than the failed easterly promises.

only time will tell though

[yamkin]

hello yamkin i am surprised too

although people think of the 18z as the pub run for

its wild swings,for the last 8 days the model has picked up

on this cold spell from the 9th with very good consistency.

i think in my opinion gfs is very good at predicting

northerlys so i have more confidence in this rather

than the failed easterly promises.

only time will tell though

On another point, mother nature couldn't care less about teleconnections, solar flares, NAO, MJO, ensembles etc. A sudden plunge of Arctic air can spread down at a moments notice.

[lottiekent]

Gritters out here for second night in a row...currently 1c with the ol' weather station forecasting snow! Think it's become attuned to my weather wishes :lol:

[john pike]

Gritters out here for second night in a row...currently 1c with the ol' weather station forecasting snow! Think it's become attuned to my weather wishes :lol:

:lol:

hopefully next week your weather station will be right

i reckon if the charts do not do a flip the site

could get busy again

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=6&runpara=0&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=192&runpara=0&mode=0

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

run 17 with the big precipitation spike

mega run but this is only for fun

[Neilsouth]

Don't care for snow at the moment, i want some sun!. It's been nearly a week now, horrid n cold

[Jayces]

I'm very surprised with the MetO's latest forecasts over the next few days/weeks. Put it this way, Croydon Council have been TOLD to make sure their gritters are ready.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the MetO's forecasts change towards the GFS colder trend.

Why would the Meto tell you to expect cold but not put that in their forecast?

Sounds to me they are just covering all bases, or maybe they are more concerned with ice rather then snow as I am not seeing anything in any of the models to get excited about just yet, well not for down here anyway

Keep up the ramping, though it has been going on for a month or so now and nothing has happened, I would guess though that by the laws of averages you guys will eventually have a ramp that comes to pass, I hope we just don't have to wait until December though

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2011030412/J192-21.GIF

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/03/05/basis12/ukuk/rart/11031212_2_0512.gif

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030512-0-168.png

seems to me if you comment on what the charts are showing

people think you are ramping

maybe i will post charts and not comment

or maybe not

Edited March 5, 2011 by john pike

[snowbob]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2011030412/J192-21.GIF

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/03/05/basis12/ukuk/rart/11031212_2_0512.gif

seems to me if you comment on what the charts are showing

people think you are ramping

maybe i will post charts and not comment

or maybe not

Ramp away jp lol

Edited March 5, 2011 by snowbob

[yamkin]

Why would the Meto tell you to expect cold but not put that in their forecast?

Sounds to me they are just covering all bases, or maybe they are more concerned with ice rather then snow as I am not seeing anything in any of the models to get excited about just yet, well not for down here anyway

Keep up the ramping, though it has been going on for a month or so now and nothing has happened, I would guess though that by the laws of averages you guys will eventually have a ramp that comes to pass, I hope we just don't have to wait until December though

Croydon Council had a real blast at the MetO for bad forecasts over the winter period. Netweather should tender to do forecasts for Croydon Council at some point.

GFS 12Z is still ramping the very cold coming back next week. Here's some ramping charts

[Jayces]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2011030412/J192-21.GIF

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/03/05/basis12/ukuk/rart/11031212_2_0512.gif

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030512-0-168.png

seems to me if you comment on what the charts are showing

people think you are ramping

maybe i will post charts and not comment

or maybe not

Hey don't take it personally John

You have to admit thought that the cold has been shown on the charts for an awful long time now but never appearing in the reliable time frame.

I think this Northerly for next week is probably the closest we have gotten since December but even that is still too far away to get excited about yet I fear.

[john pike]

Hey don't take it personally John

You have to admit thought that the cold has been shown on the charts for an awful long time now but never appearing in the reliable time frame.

I think this Northerly for next week is probably the closest we have gotten since December but even that is still too far away to get excited about yet I fear.

hi jayces

only kidding myself

for what its worth the charts have been awful this year

and made attempting to forecast anything past 5 days impossible

however the only good thing about this northerly is gfs i feel

tends to be better at predicting northerlies rather than easterlies

the models have shown the colder spell for about 8 days now so

maybe a late winter blast?

lets try and work out what the 18z has to offer

[john pike]

18z gfs

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-102.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-126.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-150.png for snowy

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-174.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-228.png

still sticking to a colder outlook

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=0&carte=2000

run the sequence and we should be under a north westerly

by thursday with what looks like a cold northerly to follow

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

276-312 again gfs special easterly then after that shows

possibilty of something warmer this is all fi at the moment though

hello yamkin nice 12z run

Edited March 5, 2011 by john pike

[yamkin]

18z gfs

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-102.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-126.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-150.png for snowy

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-174.png

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-228.png

still sticking to a colder outlook

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=0&carte=2000

run the sequence and we should be under a north westerly

by thursday with what looks like a cold northerly to follow

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

276-312 again gfs special easterly then after that shows

possibilty of something warmer this is all fi at the moment though

hello yamkin nice 12z run

Very good summary JP

I remember when GFS was having output issues in refreshing a month or so ago, I said that it was not to be trusted. Guess what, GFS was not faulty and it gave the correct model runs.

Well, tonight's 18Z had issues when refreshing......This must mean a very good sign

Edited March 5, 2011 by yamkin

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=9&ech=6&runpara=0&mode=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=9&ech=192&runpara=0&mode=1

a lot of very cold ensemble members tonight

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

9th to 15th cold enough for snow ?

certainly ensembles show enough precipitation

uppers are very close hovering between -5 to -10

if gfs is wrong with only 3 days to go that would

be remarkable

time will tell though

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm2401.gif

ecmw run

Edited March 5, 2011 by john pike

[snowydayz]

12th JP I KNEW IT!!!!

I don't wanna go tree planting

Will be keeping a very keen eye on the forecast this week, thank you for all your updates