London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

[camiscool]

I'm lucky I'm off to skiing on monday and it's supposed to snow 50cms this week

[snowbob]

Oh well looks as though it's time to get the BBQ out. Not to worry I think December was great and I do like a good old BBQ lol

[95 Degrees]

I think winter the way it should be may well not be coming back although maybe we may get surprised in March/April but bring on spring and summer if not, known as the 'faded winter' this one, truly memorable start but got worse onwards and never recovered, reminds me a lot of the summer of last year, very good start, never recovered after mid july, hopefully this summer will be more balanced out but I wouldn't trust it, remaining postive as usual though

[yamkin]

NOAA are not too happy with GFS at the moment. What we can see is that the block to the East is still holding firm. We have seen the models go from very cold to less cold almost one day after the other. MetO are going for much colder conditions later in the week with the threat of snow.

I still believe the Atlantic is being too progressive in some of the model outputs. Yesterday, the MetO released their Fax charts and going for much colder conditions setting in. The block is going to take some shifting and I'm not surprised with the MetO Boff's colder theme Fax charts

I think we are all looking forward to JP's Fax chart summary very soon

[john pike]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=

i wonder if the bbc think the block to our north east

will be stronger than the charts are showing

just saw the 10.30 forecast and they said

much colder weather for the weekend which could

be quite interesting

the fax charts seem to show the low

to our west stalling

i still think the charts could flip again within the next couple

of days

glad i do not have to make any forecasts as i admit

i still havent got a clue whats going to happen

[snowbob]

Yeah cmon jp we need a lift

[john pike]

Yeah cmon jp we need a lift

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

updated fax chart for 120

sorry for the pic size

if the block continues to hold and we get

an easterly wind we could see some snow on

saturday or sunday with the low undercutting .

this is what i think the forecasters on bbc

are seeing at present but this could

still change by tomorrow

i still think the main charts could flip over

to cold again very soon

[john pike]

hello yamkin

what do you make of the new fax charts

do you think i may be on the right lines here

john

[yamkin]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

updated fax chart for 120

sorry for the pic size

if the block continues to hold and we get

an easterly wind we could see some snow on

saturday or sunday with the low undercutting .

this is what i think the forecasters on bbc

are seeing at present but this could

still change by tomorrow

i still think the main charts could flip over

to cold again very soon

Hey JP, yet another fantastic Fax Chart summary. You do know that we ALL now expect Fax Chart summaries from the expert 'John Pike' from now on

I firmly believe that the MetO Boff's using their human interface truly have in their sights a much colder period by the end of is week. They must see the Atlantic over cooking some of the model outputs

[john pike]

Hey JP, yet another fantastic Fax Chart summary. You do know that we ALL now expect Fax Chart summaries from the expert 'John Pike' from now on

I firmly believe that the MetO Boff's using their human interface truly have in their sights a much colder period by the end of is week. They must see the Atlantic over cooking some of the model outputs

[yamkin]

hello yamkin

what do you make of the new fax charts

do you think i may be on the right lines here

john

Hi JP, Yes, I do think you are on the track regarding the Fax chart summary. The block to the East is gaining a massive punch and the Atlantic is being too progressve. MetO Boffs have given the BBC a clear indication that it will turn much colder by the end of the week with the real threat of snow. The following few days are really going to be very exciting indeed

[snowbob]

Nice one jp looks very promising after venturing in the model thread earlier thought it was all over

Gotta say you and yamkin never gave up and still you could both be right

Nice one I hope we are in for one last blast

[john pike]

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

ensembles for what they are worth

are starting to show scatter again

21st-22nd has biggest scatter

lets see what tomorrow holds

i will be on tomorrow night with the fax updates

[Jayces]

This mornings models still not agreeing with the Meto (or vice versa).

The briefest of cold snaps, blink and you will miss it before it warms up again.

But still several days before we will know for sure.

Current forecast from the Meto is for rain at the weekend for us

We know these forecasts change on a daily basis though.

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

last nights fax chart

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax84s.gif

todays updated fax chart

these are starting to show a weaker atlantic

more twists and turns to come again i feel

these links will change this afternoon

[yamkin]

This mornings models still not agreeing with the Meto (or vice versa).

The briefest of cold snaps, blink and you will miss it before it warms up again.

But still several days before we will know for sure.

Current forecast from the Meto is for rain at the weekend for us

We know these forecasts change on a daily basis though.

Hi Jayces, I can understand your frustration with the models. I firmly believe that the block to the East will hold firm and the Atlantic will calm down so to speak. It will turn colder by the end of the week. I'm looking forward to the models coming on board for a much cold period setting in next week.

[95 Degrees]

Hi Jayces, I can understand your frustration with the models. I firmly believe that the block to the East will hold firm and the Atlantic will calm down so to speak. It will turn colder by the end of the week. I'm looking forward to the models coming on board for a much cold period setting in next week.

I prey that you're right but I just can't see it happening, the block is too far east and therefore the atlantic will likely flow instead

[john pike]

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

gfs is one of the warmer runs still

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.61943319838057&lon=0

gefs london look slightly cooler

will update later

[snowbob]

Not a nice day out there today and it doesn't feel that mild actually feels quite a bit colder than yesterday just hope we start seeing some good models to get excited about later

Look forward to your fax analysis jp

[Jayces]

I admire your optimism Yamkin

The Meto updates seem to change every day so it almost seems like they are just covering all the bases at the moment.

I think until the current pattern changes then we will have to live with the continued flipping of the models from cold / warm and back to cold again.

If FI was to be believed a couple of weeks ago then we should have already been under several inches of snow but alas it was not to be and that is the issue at the moment, any wintry weather is staying firmly in FI.

[jright35]

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[yamkin]

BOM is showing us what the East has to offer

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=1&carte=0

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

i just watched the late bbc forecast and the

forecaster said potentially heavy snow for

scotland and the north east on saturday

being caused by low from the atlantic

bumping into cold air from the east

he said easterly winds would undercut the

atlantic low coming in but snow potential and location

would change over the next day or so

putting this into english he is saying they

are not sure yet exactly what happens at the weekend

the block to our east seems to be holding strong

but i would like to see it 200-300 miles further west

nice bom charts yamkin

i will try and make sense of the fax charts again tomorrow night

[yamkin]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

i just watched the late bbc forecast and the

forecaster said potentially heavy snow for

scotland and the north east on saturday

being caused by low from the atlantic

bumping into cold air from the east

he said easterly winds would undercut the

atlantic low coming in but snow potential and location

would change over the next day or so

putting this into english he is saying they

are not sure yet exactly what happens at the weekend

the block to our east seems to be holding strong

but i would like to see it 200-300 miles further west

nice bom charts yamkin

i will try and make sense of the fax charts again tomorrow night

Hi JP, Good post

Perturbations 5, 6, 14, 17, 18, 20 look very interesting :cold:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

[john pike]

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

updated ensembles

if you think our weather is hard to work out

scroll down to berlin and try to work that one out