Convective Weather Discussion UK

[TheToastPeople]

Its so hazey and warm outside, were all the storms at?

[Static Prevails]

Quite a high chance for me on Friday. I won't get too excited though... yet.

[ZONE 51]

Not seeing the justification for your statement, though nevertheless I sincerely hope you're right

GFS has been showing for a while an area of precipitation developing over France, with rising dew points increasing warm and humid air , storms breaking out across the channel with the main low closer increasing moisure to use for our storms, unstable air shown by lifted index . im sure storms would develop across in north France and push up over the SE during late eve!

-

outside now we have some large cumulus building up ,started building around two hrs ago, sky now getting a hazy hue as a background! also had some mare's tails this morning, main wisps pointing sw with the wisps pointing up, and cirrus around now. as we can see on the charts other areas have a risk of stuff breaking out!

charts are for saturday evening

Edited April 19, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ANYWEATHER]

thinking saturday night perfect for the south east for multi clusters forming an MCS as dewpoints increases greatly, and other areas to seeing storms at the week end!

There wont be any MCS on Saturday. You need a completely different synoptic situation for this to form ie a strong cold front moving in from the West conducive to the Spanish Plume effect. What we have on Saturday is some resonable cape to produce probably isolated thunderstorms, the SouthEast looks unlikely to get anything judging by the Gfs.... <_<

[Neilsouth]

That was alot of altocumuls today, some real big clumps of it... you'd think severe storms were on the way for tonight

Ah well

[weatherobsuk]

Still another hour of residual heating left before the sun begins to lower on the horizon and nocturnal cooling starts to take place. This alone in the past has been responsible for eroding of the cap-layer during the latter times of the day. Don't discount possiblities for the Midlands and central/southern regions just yet. sat24 picking up some instability in the regions that may just collectively gravitate together and form something in the coming few hours.

[ZONE 51]

There wont be any MCS on Saturday. You need a completely different synoptic situation for this to form ie a strong cold front moving in from the West conducive to the Spanish Plume effect. What we have on Saturday is some resonable cape to produce probably isolated thunderstorms, the SouthEast looks unlikely to get anything judging by the Gfs....

ok , but i hope to see at least a strong electric cell, i was thinking more cells would develop than an isolated one, and these moving in from France as scattered cells but which would be seen from different directions! i did say cluster! Edited April 19, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Costa Del Fal]

12z NMM still liking the idea of some Isolated showers/Thunderstorms over the Midlands/Wales tomorrow evening. Confidence is still Low in my opinion but Ingredients for convective activity is better than today if not that great still in some aspects. GFS suggests Isolated activity as well.

Edited April 19, 2011 by Blizzards

[ZONE 51]

the latest sat 24 shows the convergence line setting up shown here by GFS, its very warm out there and clouds building...

[Mesoscale]

the latest sat 24 shows the convergence line setting up shown here by GFS, its very warm out there and clouds building...

I swear thats where the convergence line ALWAYS forms! theres a beautiful orange sunset this evening.

Im just hopeing for at least a crack of thunder this year so far zilch and last year 2 days of thudner heard but i never got a storm right over me!!!

[Harry]

That was alot of altocumuls today, some real big clumps of it... you'd think severe storms were on the way for tonight

Ah well

Ac generally is not a reliable precursor to storms - Ac Cas (Altoculumus castellanus) are a decent precursor however. AcCas, bubbles of Ac but resembling castle turrets, indicate decent mid level instability.

[TheToastPeople]

I just saw a hot air balloon so i doubt there will be any storms today

[Neilsouth]

Ac generally is not a reliable precursor to storms - Ac Cas (Altoculumus castellanus) are a decent precursor however. AcCas, bubbles of Ac but resembling castle turrets, indicate decent mid level instability.

Which is what we had, AC and AC CAS i always thought was the same thing!. All these years on the forums posting pictures and nobody told me any different

Edited April 19, 2011 by Victor Meldrew

[Harry]

Which is what we had, AC and AC CAS i always thought was the same thing!. All these years on the forums posting pictures and nobody told me any different

Sorry mate. Ac indicates the presence of limited mid level instability, but not that which would lead to storms.

Now these pups are the business - these appeared during our one notable plume last year (4th June). A weak MCS resulted approx 3 hours later. Notice the turret shape, almost like tiny Cb's.

These are amongst the most pronounced I've ever seen by the way

Notice the haze at high altitude also - with the Ac Cas this is a very positive sign! The high haze denotes decent moisture, and is quite often (during plume events) the anvils of massive storms to our south.

Edited April 19, 2011 by Harry

[Thundery wintry showers]

A good photo, though I think that example is quite easy to confuse with cumulus (I don't often see AcCas get that big!).

Here's a classic illustration of what AcCas tends to look like:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/56/Altocumulus-Castellanus.jpg/800px-Altocumulus-Castellanus.jpg

[dave48]

That is a great photo Harry, very pronounced examples.

[Mesoscale]

some quite large clouds out to my W/NW but the haze is obscuring my view of them.

Edited April 19, 2011 by Mesoscale

[vortex_liam]

some quite large clouds out to my W/NW but the haze is obscuring my view of them.

Got some to my N/nw and your around 10 miles away from me. I'll check the sat

Edited April 19, 2011 by vortex_liam

[Sprites]

A good photo, though I think that example is quite easy to confuse with cumulus (I don't often see AcCas get that big!).

Here's a classic illustration of what AcCas tends to look like:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/56/Altocumulus-Castellanus.jpg/800px-Altocumulus-Castellanus.jpg

Thats a good example with castle like turrets, i like the altocumulus castellanus flocus that sometimes form ,i havent seen the flocus type for a while though. Seems to me that apart from S.W england which may get a storm by sunday, the rest of us will get nothing as the cape and heat slides over France ...

[vortex_liam]

looks to be something fairly faint so nothing really although it has been getting more bright since it's broken off from a small band

[knocker]

Which is what we had, AC and AC CAS i always thought was the same thing!. All these years on the forums posting pictures and nobody told me any different

If it's of any interest the seven categories of Ac used for reporting purposes in a full synoptic observation including the symbols. You don't see it so often these days with the proliferation of AWS.

Edited April 19, 2011 by weather ship

[vortex_liam]

current satalite

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Nothing really

[Stuart]

just maybe if i lucky on sat

[weatherobsuk]

Game Over for today. Thought there may have been a slight risk with that convergence over the Home Counties and Midlands but this has diminished into just murk now. ESTOFEX confident that the cells in Portugal/Spain will diminish after sunset so no chance of any imports from the continent overnight either.

A good chance to charge the batteries and see what tomorrow brings, at least with moisture content continually on the rise the abation of storms can only be a good thing for if/when they eventually do erupt.

[DeepSnow]

Out of curiosity, what type of cloud is this?? I have seen a few of these but are unsure what they are, as im not very good with cloud types...