May CET

[feb1991blizzard]

Would have thought that if the GFS 18z were to verify it would likely give a solidly above average May and probably the warmest Spring on record.

I went for 12.8 on my prediction which is a good 1.5 above average and even then the only reason i went that low was because of the met office 30 dayer intimating that there would be a fair amount of cloud and rain around which would obviously bring the temp down and because the model output looked a bit chilly for the first week. I otherwise would probably of gone for well over 13 as i am convinced that at some point there will be a genuine hot spell in may, probably towards the end.

Edited May 2, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[BornFromTheVoid]

11.4C to the 3rd

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 9.2C. Today's minimum is 1.9C while maxima will probably be a little over 16C, so a drop back to around 10.8C could happen tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS would have the CET around

11.5C to the 6th

12.2C to the 8th

12.4C to the 10th

[damianslaw]

11.4C to the 3rd

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 9.2C. Today's minimum is 1.9C while maxima will probably be a little over 16C, so a drop back to around 10.8C could happen tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS would have the CET around

11.5C to the 6th

12.2C to the 8th

12.4C to the 10th

Yes the CET should begin to climb a fair bit from tomorrow onwards thanks in large part to much milder nights. However, next week remains uncertain and we could see a return to suppressed maxima and some low minima if we tap into polar maritime air. Unlike the month just gone I will be surprised to see May finishing 1 degree or more above the average CET with every chance of a below average month still very possible if we retain strong heights over Greenland.

[reef]

Hadley is 11.0C to the 4th, yesterday came in at 9.7C.

This could well be the low point of the month.

[Milhouse]

GFS 6z showing temperatures nudging 20c in the south throughout next week so even though nights will cool down a bit following the weekend we should still be comfortably above average by the mid point of the month. There after it would be pure speculation to say it was going to turn cooler or warmer in the 2nd half if the month.

[damianslaw]

GFS 6z showing temperatures nudging 20c in the south throughout next week so even though nights will cool down a bit following the weekend we should still be comfortably above average by the mid point of the month. There after it would be pure speculation to say it was going to turn cooler or warmer in the 2nd half if the month.

High teen maxima at the very best for most the CET zone is all I can see trneding to mid teens later in the week. Only the very far se will hold onto any warmth, temps even on Sunday in London progged to only make 20 degrees. We will have cooler atlantic air by then behind the cold front.

[Scorcher]

High teen maxima at the very best for most the CET zone is all I can see trneding to mid teens later in the week. Only the very far se will hold onto any warmth, temps even on Sunday in London progged to only make 20 degrees. We will have cooler atlantic air by then behind the cold front.

I'm pretty sure the South will see 21C on Monday and Tuesday, with 20C quite widely across the Midlands and even parts of Northern England.

[BornFromTheVoid]

12.3C to the 6th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 16.4C. Minimum for today is 12.6C and maxima look like being over 20C so a rise to around 12.9C by tomorrows update.

After that, on the 06z GFS it looks like we'll be at

13.2C to the 8th

13.3C to the 10th

13.1C to the 12th

12.7C to the 14th

Well above average first half to the month all but guaranteed now.

[Roger J Smith]

Here's a table of entries. Multiple entries for various temperatures are listed in order received.

Each * symbol represents one day late.

15.5 Craig Evans

14.0 Upgrade**

13.6 Optimus Prime, snowlover2009, NathanB

13.5 Gavin P

13.4

13.3 Polar Gael

13.2 Gavin D, Tonyh

13.1 Slowpoke, Supercell 89

13.0 sunlover

12.9 Jordan P, Scorcher, Glacier Point

12.8 feb1991blizzard, snowstorm1*

12.7 Roger J Smith

12.6 Thundery winter showers, Terminal Moraine

12.5 virtualsphere, summer blizzard, the PIT, Mark Bayley, the watcher, Duncan McAlister

12.4 DeepSnow, Pete Tattum, stormmad26*

12.3 Kentish Kiwi, Jackone, fozfoster, The underwriter

12.2 Eabie, stewfox, sundog, davehsug, Don*

12.1 SteveB, Stationary Front, Milhouse, DAVID SNOW, BornFromTheVoid, Jack Wales

12.0 damianslaw, DR Hosking, BrightinBrighton

11.9 Ben_Cambs, Koppite, Mr_Data, Norrance

11.8 Stargazer, Kentish Man

11.7 Reef, Paul T--------1981-2010 avg-----------------------

11.6 AtlanticFlamethrower

11.5 Tom D, AderynCoch

11.4 coram

11.3 ----------------- 1971-2000 avg -----------------

11.2

11.1 summer of 95

11.0 BARRY

10.9 SLEETY

10.8 snow? norfolk n chance

[Sunshine]

I believe it's 12.2ºC we need to get to beat 1893 and break the record for the warmest Spring.

How likely is it that we will break the record?

[Milhouse]

I believe it's 12.2ºC we need to get to beat 1893 and break the record for the warmest Spring.

How likely is it that we will break the record?

Id say at this early stage that 12.2c would be a good bet for the eventual May CET given we have some cooler conditions just around the corner. So its still very unsure as to whether we will record the warmest ever spring.

[Optimus Prime]

Period 8th-14th comes in at 12.1c. CET by the 14th should be around 12.5c. Won't take much for the warmest May on record to fall.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Period 8th-14th comes in at 12.1c. CET by the 14th should be around 12.5c. Won't take much for the warmest May on record to fall.

Are you being sarcastic and I'm just missing it?

Looks to me like if we're at 12.5C to the 14th, the remaing 17 days would need to average over 17.2C for the record to fall, which would be very difficult to achieve would it not?

[Optimus Prime]

Are you being sarcastic and I'm just missing it?

Looks to me like if we're at 12.5C to the 14th, the remaing 17 days would need to average over 17.2C for the record to fall, which would be very difficult to achieve would it not?

Going by what April achieved I don't think it would be that unachievable. Besides I was going by the reliable records which has the record of 13.6c in 1992. Somewhere around 14.8c for the second half...totally achievable.

[damianslaw]

Going by what April achieved I don't think it would be that unachievable. Besides I was going by the reliable records which has the record of 13.6c in 1992. Somewhere around 14.8c for the second half...totally achievable.

I very much doubt we will get anywhere near recording the warmest May in record. The fact we have just had the warmest April on record means absolutely nothing.

[reef]

Going by what April achieved I don't think it would be that unachievable. Besides I was going by the reliable records which has the record of 13.6c in 1992. Somewhere around 14.8c for the second half...totally achievable.

Where do you draw the line at 'reliable' records though? One would assume that Manley/Hadley would not use data for the longest recorded temperature series in the world unless they were certain of its legitimacy. Needless to say, regardless of absolute accuracy May 1833 was certainly an exceptionally warm month and it would take something quite special to surpass it at this stage.

[Optimus Prime]

Where do you draw the line at 'reliable' records though?

I would assume after 1910, as that's the date they often refer to as the start of reliable records or as such.

[TonyH]

Surely it wont be anyway near a record warm May?

A degree or two above average yes.

[Weather-history]

Where do you draw the line at 'reliable' records though? One would assume that Manley/Hadley would not use data for the longest recorded temperature series in the world unless they were certain of its legitimacy. Needless to say, regardless of absolute accuracy May 1833 was certainly an exceptionally warm month and it would take something quite special to surpass it at this stage.

Yes, where do reliable records begin? Even today, there are one or two stations that are now consider suspect. If we are going to go down that route, I could argue that for absolute accuracy or closest to it then we should be using Manley CET in which case that would be 13.76C according to Philip Eden set in May 1992.

I have not seen anywhere questioning the May 1833 value, I have seen one or two reports calling "great heat" that month. Anyway, it is probably academic as it looks as though we could be heading for a cooler spell, which would I think kill the chance of beating that May 1833 record.

[Milhouse]

13.3c to the 8th. Just like April its a very warm start to the month. 13.3C may well be the peak value unless the warmth returns later on in the month. Even if we were relatively cool for the next 2 weks that would only take us up to the 23rd so plenty of time for a very warm final week.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[damianslaw]

Yes it has been a warm start to the month - but we have had warmer as recently as 2008. However, the trend is downwards and I wouldn't be surprised to see us nearer 12 degrees in about 2 weeks time - only a little above average and it would be a very tall order then to achieve the warmest ever. I do think there is a high chance of seeing an above average month - but perhaps not by much.

[Milhouse]

Yes it has been a warm start to the month - but we have had warmer as recently as 2008. However, the trend is downwards and I wouldn't be surprised to see us nearer 12 degrees in about 2 weeks time - only a little above average and it would be a very tall order then to achieve the warmest ever. I do think there is a high chance of seeing an above average month - but perhaps not by much.

Just what i want to hear for my guess of 12.1c. I feared i had guessed far too low but with a cooler period on the horizon i'm much more confident.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on 13.4C today (May 1 - 10).

Certainly we've had a very warm first third but the next ten days and maybe beyond look markedly cooler so we could end up with an average month CET wise.

[Tom D]

Seems to be a turning point in the charts as to whether it will be cooler or warmer again come the 18th onwards, the ECM going against the GFS.

In any case, I think it will take something quite cool to get back down to my prediction of 11.5c by the end of the month.

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.3C to the 11th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Minimum today is 8.0C, maxima will be around 15C so a drop to 13.2C by tomorrow looks likely.

Looking ahead, the GFS 06z would have the CET at

12.9C to the 13th

12.5C to the 15th

12.4C to the 17th

12.1C to the 19th

Still some way to go, but chances for below average month not looking as bad as it did a few days ago...