Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Jane Louise]

I reckon this time of the year the low cloud will burn back...

anyway good day tomorrow watching the radar...

look forward to your videos/Pics..

and I dont mean the hunky Postman Jane!!!

P.Timmer

Hunky postman where? Lol :wub:

Let's hope this low cloud does burn away. There's a lot of talk that it could inhibit our chances! I'm as always, going to remain optimistic. It's going to be an interesting day nonetheless , the potential is there for many of us and will certainly be a bonus if this so called cloud decides to disappear in the morning.Yay

[Harry]

Big downgrade in storm potential for worthing west sussex (south coast) tomorrow. this morning it was 51% now its 30% and thats in the evening too...

Remember, the charts don't pick everything up! It is 8.30pm with plenty of scope between now and tomorrow and saturday for changes. Also, bear in mind what's not shown here on the CAPE charts etc, there is always potential for continental action to drift our way.

Temperatures outside already feel a slight nudge up on earlier today (especially the breeze) - humidity feels as if it has crept up too.

Clouds in the sky are more convective looking, rather than the unimpressive blanket over us first thing this morning.

There appears to be showers developing quite rapidly over the Sea (just W of Belgium)...this indicates that there shoudn't be too many fears about the cold waters

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[A.J]

Looking forward to seeing all your lovely thunderstorm reports & photos!........For my neck of the woods, I'm not expecting to join in the fun as I'm too far north IMO.....FAX is showing a nice trough sliding across the country tomorrow, this will provide overnight and early morning showers for central regions, just the outside chance of heavy shower/rumble or two, another trough sliding through the channel tomorrow afternoon and evening should be the trigger for some reasonable storms along the southern counties into south Wales...The timing could be crucial though, as you'll want diurnal heating + the troughs lifting mechanism to trigger a decent storm, although there's some mid level CAPE which will probably allow some elevated storms to drift into the SE corner and perhaps further along the channel coast after dark

[Adi F]

Big downgrade in storm potential for worthing west sussex (south coast) tomorrow. this morning it was 51% now its 30% and thats in the evening too...

Only take the %'s as a rough guide, what will happen will happen. It's been around 6 years since I forecasted on here and cant remember what values the % takes in but I am sure it was not all of them although things may have changed since then. Paul should be able to give you a clue of what values are included.

[Evening thunder]

I am liking the look of the MetO Invent sections rainfall maps for tomorrow afternoon/evening and night. Seems to suggest some reasonable cells developing and moving my way!

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking forward to seeing all your lovely thunderstorm reports & photos!........For my neck of the woods, I'm not expecting to join in the fun as I'm too far north IMO.....

A lower risk perhaps but not out of the question at all especially before about 4pm or so. Might be a good day for the camera at the very least.

[dave48]

Some thundery activity 10-20 miles off the SE coast and some approaching east anglia on the UKMO ATD.

[gottolovethisweather]

Some thundery activity 10-20 miles off the SE coast and some approaching east anglia on the UKMO ATD.

Really? cool.

My post 178 must have been more than just guesswork then, behind shedule though, 2115BST I reckon. How far will it sustain itself I wonder!

Another grab then.

Thundery Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Harry]

Wow - in the immortal words of Daniel Corbett, "I've just taken a step to the outside" and it is MARKEDLY milder and muggier from just a couple of hours ago! Anyone in my general locality have a butchers and let me know if you agree

I dont have present data on conditions, but things to the touch are certainly feeling a touch more favourable.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Feels Like:12 °CBarometer:1,015.92 mb and steadyHumidity:72 %Visibility:9.99 kmDewpoint:7 °CWind:N 16.09 km/hUV Index:--UV Description:LowSunrise:5:40 AMSunset:8:19 PM

My current conditions

[A.J]

Wow - in the immortal words of Daniel Corbett, "I've just taken a step to the outside" and it is MARKEDLY milder and muggier from just a couple of hours ago! Anyone in my general locality have a butchers and let me know if you agree

I dont have present data on conditions, but things to the touch are certainly feeling a touch more favourable.

You want to pop up here, 150 miles to your north west H...It's chilly, and about as unthundery like as I can imagine!...lol

[Jason H]

just popped out the back garden and it's still pretty blowy and doesn't feel humid at all

[Harry]

just popped out the back garden and it's still pretty blowy and doesn't feel humid at all

Hmmm...maybe I'm coming down with something LOL!

[Adi F]

This looks promising

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2011043006_201104281419_1_stormforecast.xml

Edited April 28, 2011 by Adi F

[Harry]

This looks promising

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2011043006_201104281419_1_stormforecast.xml

I like that map - we're slap bang in the middle of our very own Southern UK pan-handle

[Wivenswold]

So close here. Each area of storms seems to fizzle out when crossing the North Sea.

[Nick F]

Have issued a convective/storm forecast for tomorrow:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=67cbb9ef41d17784b525c4505e51a417

Saturday may see any heavy showers/storms more confined to the SW of England.

[TheToastPeople]

Tomorow doesnt look good for storms.

[Guest Kent-Weather]

Well what ever that is making its way towards Kent it seems we shall find out within an hour's time. NetWeather lightning detector noted a possible strike from it too

[conor123]

I hope we get something tommorow to make up for the fact the slate grey skies are returning.

[Nick F]

Have amended my convective forecast (above) to include risk of a few heavy showers and odd isolated storm moving west over SE England and Midlands overnight tonight - in light of sferic activity in south North Sea coming out of Low Countries, associated with upper trough moving west.

[Sprites]

July is sometimes good for nocturnal storms lol, 1st May 2005 had some lively nocturnal storms

Edited April 28, 2011 by Sprites

[ZONE 51]

it is getting interesting now.. so much potential now is back again, after all the activity last weekend is amazing ,we are just at the end of april.

i like the storm forecast, as always! especially when my area is in the box!

Edited April 28, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM 18z really ramping up the Cape and LI compared to previous runs and focuses much of the potential across The Midlands, Wales and East Anglia. Rather confusing especially when comparing with the GFS etc. Basically anywhere from the Midlands and South, a very good risk of a storm or some sharp downpours should cloud not be an issue.

[ZONE 51]

it is going to be quite a widespread event affecting different areas, we shall all be radar n sat watching i think! an active thundery period

Edited April 28, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm