Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Static Prevails]

Good luck everyone! I won't see anything, but that could be a good thing, seeing as I'm going to Alton Towers. I'm always up for a suprise on the way home though... :winky:

[ZONE 51]

live lightning 1

radar 1

[john pike]

http://www.severe-weather.co.uk/

quite a good link for storms etc

[ZONE 51]

My storm risk chart for friday - saturday early morning

please note i have not included French coast and channel areas as i only do our shores and inland from there, but france has thunderstorm warnings out , so please check this if you are going across the channel

Edited April 29, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[knocker]

There is certainly a high risk of convective activity in southern, midlands and south west England today. Excluding Cornwall and Devon as the south west seems to cover half of southern England these days. Low and medium level moisture levels seem quite conducive given a kick start looking at the midnight ascents. Storms perhaps isolated and more confined to the west.

Today:

Northern Ireland and Scotland mainly dry and sunny this morning, but with some showers in eastern and later southern Scotland. Elsewhere, brightening up with isolated showers developing, locally heavy and thundery in the south. Becoming pleasantly warm despite brisk winds.

Tonight:

Heavy showers becoming confined to south Wales and southwest England this evening, but with further showers at times overnight in southern counties of England. Elsewhere, becoming dry and clear. Windy.

Edited April 29, 2011 by weather ship

[dogs32]

Storms firing up to my east

[Jane Louise]

Storms firing up to my east

Hi Pat. really! keeping an eye out here even though I'm still half asleep lol. I don't have much hope for us tonight as Met Office says Gloucestershire will be dry.

[Nick F]

Looks like a few storms made it west across Essex and the northern Home Counties from the S North Sea overnight looking at the lightning detection. Moisture will rise this morning from the east and with diurnal heating, we should see some home-grown storms develop this afternoon, particularly west of London across central-S England, S Midlands and S Wales I think.

[Sprites]

Storms firing up to my east

must be an early rising storm, or maybe it coudnt sleep because the adrenalin rush from the medias wedding fiasco, that has taken priority over famine,death.. or anything lol

[jy]

Yes our football club has suddenly had a rush of interest in its charity golf day all blokes on a overhyped wedding,however we are really in storm country this afternoon so fingers crossed we escape dry.

[dogs32]

Hi Pat. really! keeping an eye out here even though I'm still half asleep lol. I don't have much hope for us tonight as Met Office says Gloucestershire will be dry.

Pete was woken up by thunder...cells firing to the East spreading West..hope they explode more

like the info Nick

heavy thundery drops here

Edited April 29, 2011 by dogs32

[Coast]

Owww, a level 1 from ESTOFEX across a great swathe of the UK and France for today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 29 Apr 2011 06:00 to Sat 30 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 28 Apr 2011 14:19

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, France and parts of W-Germany mainly for an isolated tornado and large hail/strong to severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Extensive cyclonic gyre covers Europe with cold mid-levels overspreading most of Europe. This kind of mid tropospheric air mass atop modest BL moisture and seasonal diabatic heating all assist in widespread thunderstrom development.

An high pressure area over N-Europe strengthens during the forecast and forces drier and cooler air further to the south.

At the surface, the main feature of interest is an intensifying depression over far N-Africa/SW Mediterranean, which pushes eastwards. Enhanced shear allow rapid thunderstorm organization with a risk for severe thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

... E-UK, Benelux, parts of France and W-Germany...

Gradient flow increases during the daytime hours as high pressure to the north strengthens. Modest BL moisture content beneath T<-20°C at 500 hPa results in modest mid-level lapse rates and SB/MLCAPE of ~800/500 J/kg. Numerous, weak vorticity maxima, embedded in this strenghtening easterly flow affect the highlighted area during a prolonged period, resulting in scattered thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Main uncertainty... if wind field ramps up fast enough, before instability diminishes due to BL stabilisation. Also, weak low-tropospheric WAA is anticipated during the forecast, which could limit thunderstorm coverage mainly over the Netherlands and NW-Germany. We went with a level 1, where low-end to modest CAPE overlap with up to 12 m/s speed shear and roughly 200 m^2/s^2 SRH-1. LCLs not too low with 1 km, but still an isolated tornado and strong to severe wind gust event is well possible, probably maximized over Belgium. A somewhat enhanced large hail risk exists not only in the aforementioned areas, but also further south over N-central France with low WBZ levels and DLS of 10 - 15 m/s. Hence, the level area was expanded well to the south.

and a little fluffy bit just over my house in the mid-level aviation chart!

All sorts of possibilities from Wales to The Wash and down then. With an interesting area in the SE that whilst remote, I am going to watch with interest later in the evening.

[A.J]

Just out of curiosity, how often do Estofex publish their storm forecasts?...just once a day or more? That forecast was issued lunchtime yesterday, it's interesting to surmize how the parameters might have changed in the interim

[Jane Louise]

Thanks Coast and Nick. Just had a moderate rain shower here. Now waiting for the cloud to dissipate.It does seem to be brightening up now.

[Coast]

Just out of curiosity, how often do Estofex publish their storm forecasts?...just once a day or more? That forecast was issued lunchtime yesterday, it's interesting to surmize how the parameters might have changed in the interim

As and when I think. I have seen updates during the course of the day when the dynamics change.

Fairly good agreement for better potential today, I'm liking Nick's NW forecast which covers much of the area's ESTOFEX do, but with a nice little something possible late in the day/early hours for me.

UKASF seem to still be having staffing problems and TORRO have nothing for today although they tend to come up with stuff nearer the time. A new one for me, SkyWarn UK have this:

Severe Weather Risk: Moderate

Showery and unsettled conditions spreading from the southeast, drier and cooler for the northern half. Thunderstorms for most of the southern half through Friday.

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #023

ISSUED: 1400UTC, THURSDAY 28TH APRIL 2011

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SOUTH MIDLANDS

WEST MIDLANDS

LONDON

SOUTH WALES

SOUTH COAST REGION OF ENGLAND

SOUTH WEST ENGLAND

SOUTH EAST ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 0600UTC UNTIL 2000UTC ON FRIDAY 29TH APRIL 2011.

UNSTABLE WARM AIRMASS UNDER A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...LIGHTNING...FUNNELS...TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:

USING A BLEND OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS, THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE OF A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO SPREADING ACROSS FROM EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS, CAPE OF UP TO 700J/KG WILL GENERATE STORMS INLAND IN A MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OF AROUND 300M2/S2 0-6KM DLS, POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR ORGANISATION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS AND ENHANCING UPDRAFTS. PRECIPITATION IN LOCALISED CORES OF UP TO 20MM PER HOUR AND HAIL UP TO 10MM CAN BE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT SIGNIFICANT OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN/COASTAL EFFECTS. MID AFTERNOON ONWARDS, AN AREA SOUTH OF CENTRAL ENGLAND TO SOUTH WALES IS THE MAIN RISK AREA FOR FUNNELS AND POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADOES, WITH THE SOUTH EAST AND SOUTH COAST OF ENGLAND AT RISK OF CONVERGENCE INDUCED FUNNELS AND POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADOES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

--------

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

[vortex_liam]

Storm watch out http://extremestormsuk.blogspot.com/2011/04/storm-chance-south-east-to-west-to.html

[gottolovethisweather]

10.7c here and 8.9c dewpoint, cloudy but attempting to brighten up.

According to SAT24 the cloud appears to soon be clearing westwards from the coast, then GAME ON!

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[A.J]

As and when I think. I have seen updates during the course of the day when the dynamics change.

Fairly good agreement for better potential today, I'm liking Nick's NW forecast which covers much of the area's ESTOFEX do, but with a nice little something possible late in the day/early hours for me.

UKASF seem to still be having staffing problems and TORRO have nothing for today although they tend to come up with stuff nearer the time.

Cheers Robin

I posted earlier on last evening with my thoughts for today...It's reassuring to know that Nick's forecast was on similiar lines, was worried that I was posting garbage...lol...and shows that I have learnt something about the weather in the past 6 years!...:lol:

The early morning GFS & hi-res NMM runs move the risk area a bit further north and west bringing Wales & most of the Midlands stretching up to the Wirral into play, just hope remnants of the overnight cloud will burn away.....I'm still liking the idea of elevated storms trundling along the English Channel overnight, and I've a hunch that folks in South Devon/The south Cornish coast may well get a nice light show during the early hours tomorrow

[NO LONGER POSTING]

very mild here has just started to pick up in temperature, feels a bit muggy

Mostly CloudyFeels Like:12 °CBarometer:982.05 mb and steadyHumidity:82 %Visibility:7 kmDewpoint:9 °CWind:NNE 12.87 km/hUV Index:1UV Description:LowSunrise:5:38 AMSunset:8:21 PM

[Neilsouth]

Sun is finally trying to come out, which is exactly what we need

On the downside of today, UKWW isn't so hopeful of storms atleast in the convective chat

[A.J]

Sun is finally trying to come out, which is exactly what we need

On the downside of today, UKWW isn't so hopeful of storms atleast in the convective chat

Why read that forum then Neil....lol.....Stick to NW, home to the most fanatic, die-hard storm enthusiasts this side of Amarillo !!

[Kookylou]

cardiff - overcast, dull and cold. i have the heating on!

[Neilsouth]

Why read that forum then Neil....lol.....Stick to NW, home to the most fanatic, die-hard storm enthusiasts this side of Amarillo !!

lol true true, gotta look at all sources though

[Lynxus]

Cold, Damp, Cloudy & Breezy round here today.

I hope the sun does pop out for a bit!

[knocker]

Just the 0600z charts.