Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Stormyking]

LOLOL if only that moderte risk and Level was jsut slightly further west, im like litereally just 20/30 miles out side it :L, tbh I think whatever comes out of the continent tomorrow will hit just about anywhere a long the South coast and South east tomorrow the whole weekend has big potential!

[Gordon]

Well I avoided the storms last Friday / Saturday and are hoping to do so again

the risk of the worst weather I think is a little south and south west of my location especially by the afternoon even though I don't think showers can't be ruled out for me , hopefully no thundery ones though

Edited April 28, 2011 by Gordon

[NL]

Wow, thanks for posting this early. :good:I wouldn't of checked it until 10pm .It make's tomorrow even more exciting to look forward too lol :drunk::winky:

Ha ha, No problem Jane-Louise, Still looks like Belgium is the place to be for severe weather but a lot can change and you guys in the south could be in for a treat..I was going to avoid the tv tomorrow with all that wedding nonsense but I could take a peek just to see those rolling thunderheads come crashing in.

[dave48]

Great to see the level 1 from estofex. Let's hope the storms can get going tomorrow.

[Gordon]

Great to see the level 1 from estofex. Let's hope the storms can get going tomorrow.

I will do my best to WILL them in your direction

and I am not sure what'll be worse tomorrow possible showers / storms or that wedding

[knocker]

there seem to be some lightning strikes north of birmingham???

Alabama?

[Jane Louise]

Ha ha, No problem Jane-Louise, Still looks like Belgium is the place to be for severe weather but a lot can change and you guys in the south could be in for a treat..I was going to avoid the tv tomorrow with all that wedding nonsense but I could take a peek just to see those rolling thunderheads come crashing in.

Royal wedding, what royal wedding? lol :winky::lol:

I'm going to be waiting for a storm in the caravan. Beats the TV and the royal wedding any day lol.

[knocker]

I wondered afterwards if Surrey's post maybe related to that destructive tornado that hit Alabama, but I doubt that many of us would seriously want that to happen (and for those of us who do, "careful what you wish for" applies!). I often think that our neighbours in continental Europe are quite lucky (in a storm lovers' sense) to experience dramatic thunderstorms but without much of the high risk to lives and properties that accompanies those in the US plains, and the one that recently hit Alabama.

I must admit to having a desire to see funnel clouds when I watch convective events, as many storm chasers/spotters do, but I am more than happy to settle for seeing ones that never make it to the ground. It seems to be a general truism of events associated with thrills that there comes a point beyond which the threat becomes too large for the thrill to be worth it.

Re. Surrey's subsequent post, I can see that your typical European thunderstorm also poses a small threat to lives and properties, and a threat of turning into something bigger, but again the same sort of thing can be argued for hot dry sunny spells, e.g. a short-lived hot dry sunny spell puts some of the fragile at risk from heat exhaustion/dehydration and there's always the risk of it turning into another August 2003- and I don't see many people feeling guilty when they talk about the "best" hot sunny spell.

This is turning out to be one of the worst tornado events for many years. I believe the death toll is now 270.

Dozens of tornadoes ripped through the South, flattening homes and businesses and killing at least 215 people in six states in the deadliest outbreak in nearly 40 years.

[Godot]

People hoping for exciting weather don't want people to die anymore than people hoping for an exciting F1 race.

Looking forward to see what Saturday brings. (if anything!)

[dogs32]

so the game is back on...

Who will get there storm ...?

Imgoing to Pick Glousestershire , Wiltshire and Oxfordshire :lol:

Edited April 28, 2011 by dogs32

[Costa Del Fal]

My only concern is too much cloud to get convection going tomorrow?? I might be wrong as i havent had much time to read the models. Other than that all looks excellent.

[Cableguy]

My only concern is too much cloud to get convection going tomorrow?? I might be wrong as i havent had much time to read the models. Other than that all looks excellent.

that is exactly my worry, we get bbc london here and obviously theres a lot of focus in the capital for the weather tomorrow, chance of shower or storm is low apparently

[Jane Louise]

so the game is back on...

Who will get there storm ...?

Imgoing to Pick Glousestershire , Wiltshire and Oxfordshire :lol:

Pat, I'm going to be greedy and say Gloucestershire But, seriously I wish everybody luck and I hope you get your storms.

We have to rely on the low cloud clearing first thing and I think it will all depend on solar heating as the day goes on! An exciting couple of day ahead for some.

[Geordiesnow]

My only concern is too much cloud to get convection going tomorrow?? I might be wrong as i havent had much time to read the models. Other than that all looks excellent.

Indeed thats what I been thinking, the pressure charts on the BBC forecasts suggests a weather front nearby therefore there will be alot of mid-level cloud tomorrow to break up because if it doesnt, the day will just consist of cloudy skies with showery outbreaks of rain. However the forecasts are indicating that the cloud will break up and the heavy showers will start in the afternoon.

I personally can't see huge amount of potential because the storms over the continent would have to travel over the chilly North Sea which will kill any towering cloud tops therefore you are just left with alot of cloud and outbreaks of rain. Still, would not rule out the odd rumble of thunder but as ever its radar watching for those in the South.

[dogs32]

Pat, I'm going to be greedy and say Gloucestershire But, seriously I wish everybody luck and I hope you get your storms.

We have to rely on the low cloud clearing first thing and I think it will all depend on solar heating as the day goes on! An exciting couple of day ahead for some.

I reckon this time of the year the low cloud will burn back...

anyway good day tomorrow watching the radar...

look forward to your videos/Pics..

and I dont mean the hunky Postman Jane!!!

P.Timmer

Edited April 28, 2011 by dogs32

[Coast]

Well the first bit of rain for ages has started here, but nothing suggesting electrical activity. Looking forward to tomorrow - and I don't mean the wedding!!

[Gordon]

Indeed thats what I been thinking, the pressure charts on the BBC forecasts suggests a weather front nearby therefore there will be alot of mid-level cloud tomorrow to break up because if it doesnt, the day will just consist of cloudy skies with showery outbreaks of rain. However the forecasts are indicating that the cloud will break up and the heavy showers will start in the afternoon.

I personally can't see huge amount of potential because the storms over the continent would have to travel over the chilly North Sea which will kill any towering cloud tops therefore you are just left with alot of cloud and outbreaks of rain. Still, would not rule out the odd rumble of thunder but as ever its radar watching for those in the South.

well the BBC has my location as cloudy and sometimes cloud just loves to stick around

best chances seems locations west of London in the afternoon period

Edited April 28, 2011 by Gordon

[Wivenswold]

Here goes. Will it make it across a cold North Sea though? http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

Wish it was dark and clear here, I'd be able to see my first lightning of the year.

[tomp456]

Big downgrade in storm potential for worthing west sussex (south coast) tomorrow. this morning it was 51% now its 30% and thats in the evening too...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm might help too....

[cartedj]

Well! Were going to have lots of showers and storms in Swindon tomorrow afternoon. How do I know. Simple.

My sister is having a post Royal wedding BBQ.

[Thundery wintry showers]

This is turning out to be one of the worst tornado events for many years. I believe the death toll is now 270.

Dozens of tornadoes ripped through the South, flattening homes and businesses and killing at least 215 people in six states in the deadliest outbreak in nearly 40 years.

Indeed, here's a link with a clip of the footage:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13217726

Pretty terrifying and tragic stuff, and I'm guessing that some of the flashes in the footage aren't lightning but are parts of properties exploding. The article gives the death toll as 246 but I won't be surprised if it ends up in the 300s. Looks from the synoptics as if the tornado came from a mid-latitude depression rather than the shallow thundery troughs and southerly plumes that characterise most major European events.

Nothing like that in store here in the UK- but I get an impression that Friday night could potentially give a lightning show for some in the SE.

[dave48]

The latest NMM certainly shows some decent ml cape associated with the area of higher theta e temps that moves in from the east tomorrow night. Met office fax has a trough along the south coast, will be interesting to see what if any the interaction will be. Would agree that there is some potential for tomorrow night.

[virtualsphere]

Wiltshire??? i can only hope.. missed out last weekend... only by like 20 miles damn warminster lol

Hope your right with the somerset prediction, not had a storm her since 2009. Definately be keeping an eye on this. Will the chance be greater in the afternoon/evening?

It looks like today's 12Z GFS has shifted the highest CAPE a little further away from the West for tomorrow...

There are now higher values for Saturday afternoon though - the largest are shown for SW England rather than here in Wales if this is to be believed...

It's worth noting this is just one run and there's still time for this to change - especially for Saturday. Hopefully some of the more experienced members on here will be able to provide more forecasting detail as I'm really just going by the charts - it will probably be a 'nowcasting' situation to some extent, with showers and storms likely to be scattered. The Met Office Invent maps are going for heavy showers to move eastwards from around 4am in the SE through to mid-morning too, which don't show on the GFS storm risk charts at all and look to associated with the trough shown on the fax chart for 12Z tomorrow running from the SW up to the NE.

[gottolovethisweather]

Just a quick grab from me.

Something heavier heading into parts of Kent/Sussex soon , I estimate by 9pm tonight, will it be convective :unsure: and let's hope it does cloud up our horizons for tomorrow as others have said.

Time will tell but the real action should be tomorrow and Saturday.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather