Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[The PIT]

You do realise folks when the sun doesn't come out on June the 1st the public will consider this forecast bust......

[William of Walworth]

You do realise folks when the sun doesn't come out on June the 1st the public will consider this forecast bust......

And that they'll be massively, ridiculously full of plain wrong about that .... :lol:

[kold weather]

Quite a bold forecast but I was thinking myself this summer could be decently above average.

The big wildcard as per normal is the state of the ENSO. Right now the set-up aloft is condusive for an El Nino to try and form some point in the summer. Whilst the global pattern isn't really condusive on the longer term, with subsurface conditions the way they are right now combined with the QBO state and other factors the ENSO has really warmed quite rapidly.

Most likely is warm neutral for the start...but my gut says maybe weak El nino...which would likely lead to a summer perhaps like 2004, esp the latter half of that summer...warm and thundery but nothing too exceptional. If we stay close to neutral though certainly gotta be thinking about the possiblity of a very good summer.

[ZONE 51]

The Met Office says "

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Jun 2011 to Tuesday 21 Jun 2011:

For this period, rainfall amounts look to be close to or below average for the time of year for most parts of the UK. Sunshine is likely to be above average for the most part and this will help temperatures to be above average, or even well above the average in some areas, for much of the period, especially in the south.

Updated: 1205 on Mon 23 May 2011

to GP i knew it was on its way!

it is on its way, the north are to get summer weather, we are doing fine already here in the south just need some rains..

Edited May 24, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[mushymanrob]

The Met Office says "

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Jun 2011 to Tuesday 21 Jun 2011:

For this period, rainfall amounts look to be close to or below average for the time of year for most parts of the UK. Sunshine is likely to be above average for the most part and this will help temperatures to be above average, or even well above the average in some areas, for much of the period, especially in the south.

Updated: 1205 on Mon 23 May 2011

to GP i knew it was on its way!

it is on its way, the north are to get summer weather, we are doing fine already here in the south just need some rains..

you celebrate too early, that forecast predicts average or above average, not the 'reminiscent of 76' gp suggests might happen. thats well above average and dry..

[Backtrack]

At the time of our posts only the 0Z GFS run was out so my point was perfectly valid for that run.

Was not! I checked before posting it said '06z'

Also to the guy moaning about the Met not predicting 38-40C temperatures, why is there not a reason to celebrate. I am hardly disheartened by the fact that the Met Office are predicting above average sunshine and above average temperatures.

What is wrong with people, if it's snowing at -1C people will moan that it's marginal

If it's scorching hot at 30C, people will say it's not a reminiscent of 1976 or it is too dry.

Get a grip!

Edited May 24, 2011 by backtrack

[95 Degrees]

you celebrate too early, that forecast predicts average or above average, not the 'reminiscent of 76' gp suggests might happen. thats well above average and dry..

What forecast are you reading Mushy! it clearly states that temperatures will likely be above or perhaps well above average for much of the period, with rainfall amounts below average, not saying it will happen but that's what it says, you really are one negative person :lol:

[EaasmanG]

I have got to say, my feelings are rather at odds with this forecast, mostly for the earlier part of the summer. I can't claim the level of experience and expertese as Stewart I must also add.

However I am thinking along the lines of this summer being something of a slow developer, with a rather cool and unsettled June, but warmth developing into mid/late July. As for August, too far out to say. I don't think we can expect a June CET any more than 0.4 degrees above average (and that will mostly be minimum temperatures) and it could also bring the SE the much needed rain. In July I'm thinking of more consistent mild temperatures rather than any "heatwave", but lasting longer than any of the 4 previous summers have produced, and dryer than average.

[Gavin P]

Paul Hudson looks at a number of summer LRF's, including Netweather;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/05/is-summer-2011-set-to-be-a-sco.shtml

[conor123]

I've not viewed the charts since Saturday but my prediction for early June still stands in that the Azores high should finally move north east later next week but then centre somewhere between Iceland and the Shetland Islands dragging Easterly winds across the UK which will bring the classic West/East split of sunny West and cloudy East at first which has been rather rare this year, followed by a warmup as the Jet starts to sink the high though it may well end up moving to our West, centering South West of Iceland meaning after a brief spell of warmth the NW/SE split returns just after a week in.

[damianslaw]

Based on no science my own thoughts are that I would be very surprised if we saw a summer on a par with 1976 or even 1995, however, read the headline it says 'shades' of 76 - not a carbon copy of 76. People I think have taken the headline that we will see a repeat of 1976.

Personally I do not see a continuation in the extreme dry conditions of late - mother nature has a habit of balancing herself out in terms of heat and cold and wetness and dryness. Whilst I doubt it will be a complete washout I can see the atlantic powering into gear come August - it has been unusually quiet for so long now. July could be the best month of the summer contrary to many expecting June to deliver the best goods. i I have to say though compared to the period 2003-2006 where my expectations of prolonged good weather summer were raised markedly the experience of the past four summers means my expectations are very now much more conservative.. conversely my expectations for cold weather in winter have risen markedly thanks to the past three winters..

[William of Walworth]

Based on no science my own thoughts are that I would be very surprised if we saw a summer on a par with 1976 or even 1995, however, read the headline it says 'shades' of 76 - not a carbon copy of 76. People I think have taken the headline that we will see a repeat of 1976.

Personally I do not see a continuation in the extreme dry conditions of late - mother nature has a habit of balancing herself out in terms of heat and cold and wetness and dryness. Whilst I doubt it will be a complete washout I can see the atlantic powering into gear come August - it has been unusually quiet for so long now. July could be the best month of the summer contrary to many expecting June to deliver the best goods. i I have to say though compared to the period 2003-2006 where my expectations of prolonged good weather summer were raised markedly the experience of the past four summers means my expectations are very now much more conservative.. conversely my expectations for cold weather in winter have risen markedly thanks to the past three winters..

I've bolded the last part of your post because I really do think there's too much danger of ones' thinking (and I include myself in this) being overcoloured by recent disappointments, by previous good forecasts not coming off, by recent summers being more indifferent than was predicted in the long.medium range forecasts. Leading to very undestandable caution!

Poor precedents though are not necessarily any kind of prediction of them being repeated though. A stonking summer really could come off this time!

One possibly significant difference this time is that few of those getting stuck into all the technical discussions are talking of the dreaded Southerly Tracking Jet of recent summers. At least not for now ...

[ZONE 51]

you celebrate too early

its because im so sure of this turning up!

Can i say that we are already a quarter of the way into the 76 drought in the South east and East Anglia, and its not even summer yet...

for these areas it is certain that these conditions are to worsen into summer, the move to sustained high pressure with heat and dry will start in the south and slowly push north as we move through june.

From my profile - check the dates(read bottom one first for the earliest)

ElectricSnowStorm 14 May 2011 - 01:07 just adding on last bit of text..drought conditions a concern this summer, i don't see any widespread rain, as we know thunderstorms can cause flash floods, and with hard ground flooding would be as much a hazard as saturated ground, if the right conditions set up with small lows slow moving, then flood events are possible. what we need is night rains , prolonged but moderate.

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ElectricSnowStorm

14 May 2011 - 00:59 august - heatwaves and storms for much of the UK ,some of the highest temps being recorded early month, i don't see cool conditions at this stage, although low pressure starting to get into the southwest.

Summer 2011 - mostly dry and very warm for many, cooler at times far north but even heat getting up here at times, rain from local thunderstorms rather than systems. drought condition...

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ElectricSnowStorm

14 May 2011 - 00:54 July - by this time we should expect some rain to ease the now drought conditions across the south especially, after a hot and mostly dry june it does look like some rain for western areas, but it does not seem like the southeast is in for a prolonged rainy period again, although local thunderstorms are always likely, there is the risk of lows moving up from France and hanging around the south.

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ElectricSnowStorm

22 Apr 2011 - 01:44 update to my mini outlook to the future!

there is indications of not such a washout in may month, its a concern the lack of rain, at the moment the problem is on the surface with very dry ground, the rivers are really feeling it now,forest fires are allso a risk, the underground water is not as much a concern at the moment they say, as it was topped up enough through winter..in places.

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ElectricSnowStorm

15 Apr 2011 - 02:24 Spring/Summer 2011 update..

June - after heavy flash storms from may month we become dry again, entering once again another dry month, as like march and april not any widespread rain, especially in the south, june month also becomes hot and dry, with summer weather pushing across all areas, the heatwave conditions widespread, thunderstorms rattle at times, mostly pushing up from France....

Edited May 25, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[stewfox]

its because im so sure of this turning up!

Can i say that we are already a quarter of the way into the 76 drought in the South east and East Anglia, and its not even summer yet...

for these areas it is certain that these conditions are to worsen into summer, the move to sustained high pressure with heat and dry will start in the south and slowly push north as we move through june.

I'm afraid if anyone could be certain of the weather for the next 3 months they would be very rich.

I predict twice the average rain fall this summer with amazing thunder storms in August, I'm certain of this.

[Roger J Smith]

So you will be very rich in September, then?

[ZONE 51]

I'm afraid if anyone could be certain of the weather for the next 3 months they would be very rich.

I predict twice the average rain fall this summer with amazing thunder storms in August, I'm certain of this.

ok fair enough, i expect it to then based on my look into the future.

you are right we can not be certain, but we can give a forecast.

[Kentish Kiwi]

I'm afraid if anyone could be certain of the weather for the next 3 months they would be very rich.

I predict twice the average rain fall this summer with amazing thunder storms in August, I'm certain of this.

So you will be very rich in September, then?

I really hope he was being intentionally ironic...

[stewfox]

So you will be very rich in September, then?

yes Euro roll over £134m late August 12, 17, 23, 34, 44 and 2 & 7

At least the rain has stopped, another cold night

[rob48]

So summer officially starts tomorrow.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13602168

And many people are hoping for "shades of 76"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/31/europe-dry-spring-power-blackouts?intcmp=122

Never mind.

So long as the beer garden's cosy everything's just fine.

[William of Walworth]

So summer officially starts tomorrow.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-13602168

And many people are hoping for "shades of 76"

http://www.guardian....outs?intcmp=122

Never mind.

So long as the beer garden's cosy everything's just fine.

Well hello there Mr Ray of Happy Sunshine!

For that significant minoroty who don't like droughts and are heat averse, and I have plenty of sympathy with them myself, well as I posted a while back in this thread, they've had plenty of wet weather and unsettled weather and unhot weather in recent summers to fill their boots -- and well more than they need to keep them happy.

Yer average person in the UK (ie those whose patience is just slightly tried by over long spells of dismally Atlantic fuelled changeable dull windy showery/wet conditions) well they are surely now overdue an anticyclone fuelled and dry/warm/settled- dominated summer.

Reality could very well end up much more mixed than GP's forecasts suggested, but if it doesn't and we do get a scorcher -- please spare us the moaning and sarcasm and chippy comments like the above!

PS That Guardian article is speculative. It is not a forecast!

Edited May 31, 2011 by William of Walworth

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think Rob48 was getting at the array of negative impacts that the dry spring has had, particularly on farmers and potentially extending to parts of the economy, reading through those articles. I can interpret that in two ways, one positive and one negative, the positive being a "careful what you wish for" type reminder and the negative being to try to make people feel guilty for wanting something similar to Summer 1976.

I think my own preferences are spared by the drought concerns, as they are for a warm sunny summer with frequent convective downpours (similar to an average summer in, say, Munich) which would probably help the water shortages to some degree, but I must say that if my preference was ordinarily for a hot dry summer like 1976 then I would probably be in two minds about it because of the escalating drought issues. However I still don't think people should feel guilty if they want a 1976-style summer, or for enjoying it if it does happen.

[ZONE 51]

However I still don't think people should feel guilty if they want a 1976-style summer, or for enjoying it if it does happen.

Thats what i like to hear, because many of us tend to feel guilty about wanting certain conditions-even if we know what effects come with a type of conditions. if we did have all the rains during spring then many would want a dry summer-if we had floods in may for example-a break from the wet weather, but it is that feeling of guilt that we do get, for wanting prolonged dry and very warm weather with storms, because we are in a drought and do not want it to get worse then this guilt is far more for'wanting'

I think about the farmers and how they cope during droughts. if we got a week of prolonged rains-that we urgently need, then what would the papers say, would they put the good news out as good news, or would it be a dull story about the rain 'here for the next few wks or 'summers over..'.

Something that comes to mind is that during a drought when rivers get low that makes them a bit safer i would think, and clearer.

what i think is that the rains are not going to set in where its needed most, this is because the pattern is stuck where rain fronts keep petering out, we could only hope to get some prolonged rains from storms from the south or southeast, but i do think high pressure will set in and stay with just a few minor fluctuations in the pattern just allowing cooler air and showers for a short time then back to warm-hot conditions once again. then i expect soon a set up of prolonged high pressure to not shift, this setting up for long very warm and at times hot weather.

does anyone see a washout for the south? i don't even see a weather front thats going to survive at all down this way.

but keep an eye on the south for little thundery features this month, these moving north.

Edited June 1, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Liam J]

Have just read through the latest summer forecast another site released yesterday, ''a mixed summer outlook and nothing special'' it did also say there would be warm spells, but with rain and showers more aparent as the summer gets going.

[SteveB]

I have a feeling that this Summer isn't going to pan out like Net-weather forecast.

It looks like a fair chunk of June is going to continue in the same vain as May. Hopefully some hotter days will come along the second half of June & into July, but at the moment any talk of a heatwave is just that.

One thing that is certain, is there still appears to be no meaningful rain for the southern half of Britain.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I have a feeling that this Summer isn't going to pan out like Net-weather forecast.

It looks like a fair chunk of June is going to continue in the same vain as May. Hopefully some hotter days will come along the second half of June & into July, but at the moment any talk of a heatwave is just that.

One thing that is certain, is there still appears to be no meaningful rain for the southern half of Britain.

All the rain for the south may be gearing up to arrive 20th June to 03 July, washout Wimbledon, may have to pay for the dry weather, but they do have a centre court roof