Autumn 2011

[Summer Sun]

Gavin D, why do you actually think we are heading for a mild Winter?

High pressure will become the main feature this winter keeping it drier than normal, not saying storms won't arrive because they most likely will at times, also not saying we won't get substancial snow fall's from time to time but these will most likely only last a week max for most unlike 2010 when it was a month long freeze.

[Radiating Dendrite]

High pressure will become the main feature this winter keeping it drier than normal, not saying storms won't arrive because they most likely will at times, also not saying we won't get substancial snow fall's from time to time but these will most likely only last a week max for most unlike 2010 when it was a month long freeze.

High pressure can just as easily lead to a very cold winter!

Where do you expect the highs to be positioned in the main?

Over us? East? West? North? South?

[Summer Sun]

High pressure can just as easily lead to a very cold winter!

Where do you expect the highs to be positioned in the main?

Over us? East? West? North? South?

West at First

[summer blizzard]

Never say never. There's probably a ton of times in history when that much snow has fallen in South Yorkshire and Leeds (1995, 1978, 1947 are good examples), who knows, last winter was pretty feeble for snow compared to most severe winters so I think we are long overdue a big dumping!

We must also remember that the snow fell in the space of a month , so it is reasonable that in 1947, 1963 ect.. , depths probably approached 1m. Infact having seen pictures of 1947 near here, the snow depth was apparently 1.2m with higher drifts.

That said, the synoptic pattern was pretty unique over ssouth yorkshire. NE winds formed a streamer (fairly common) which in turn formed a convergance zone and trough (less common but within the realms of possibilty) but what really pepped thigs up was the the trough became an occlusion as a low formed and while the front did meander (it came to Leeds twice before dropping south again) it largely kept at least the edge over south yorkshire.

[Downburst]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Looking slightly more likely for -ve ENSO conditions to develop in Autumn, although neutral also equally favoured, they are suggesting mounting evidence for -ve, read it to see what I mean, we will know in a matter of weeks. Given all the data out there and particualrily the composites outlined with other major factors based in them thanks to sebastiaan1973, in http://weatherintoro...tlook-2012.html for a great example I am really hopeful of a very cold first half to the winter. Looks similar to last year unless someone can tell me whats different? Really amazed with the -NAO + -AO composite and the low sunspot composite being so similar. I'd love to get GP's thoughts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The chart above would be very disappointing. The actual weather from that chart would be a cool NW/WNW,ly flow with any wintry precipitation being restricted to the high ground in Scotland. The max temps in location such as London would be around 7/8C.

yes that is the worst winter setup for my location, constant rain coming in through cheshire gap, would rather have TM air and dry

[Harry444]

High pressure will become the main feature this winter keeping it drier than normal, not saying storms won't arrive because they most likely will at times, also not saying we won't get substancial snow fall's from time to time but these will most likely only last a week max for most unlike 2010 when it was a month long freeze.

Yes, so why will it only last for a week?

Are you implying in any way falls could be spread throughout all three winter months like 2008-2009?

Think of it this way, not too sure of the exact averages but lets say the average days of rainfall in January (which at the moment I think we can say is predicted cold this winter so far) is 16, then a high pressure dominated cold month would mean 9 or 10 days would be precipitation days, as well as the cold of course.

I understand what you said, but a week's worth of snow would just be too low from what we have seen in other forecasts so far.

Not too sure how you could be so confident about high pressure; I mean temperatures yes okay but high and low pressure is hard to forecast.

[Harry444]

Are we in a virtually identical state to the lead up of the winter of 2008-2009??

For those of you who don't know, 2008-2009 was the first of the real cold winters we have seen recently, snow fell in London on the last few days of October I believe, the first week or so of December saw a real cold spell in Northern England especially the Pennines (29th November to 5th December)

January was another cold and pretty snowy month in the usual locations; Scotland and Northern England; where about 5 days where snowy,

Then of course there was February where the snow and cold was much more widespread and heavy.

Anyway, talking of that Winter, for those relying on the CFS models, they messed up 2008-2009 big time.

Here is the models as of September 2008

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200809/images/euT2mProbMon.gif

^ alright I suppose except for the average forecast February

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200810/images/euT2mProbMon.gif

^ Models in October 2008, even more incorrect

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200811/images/euT2mProbMon.gif

^ November models, one month away from the first cold spell in December, what are the models playing at?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200812/images/euT2mProbMon.gif

^ models are taking the mick now!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200901/images/euT2mProbMon.gif

^ January a touch better but February is just totally wrong!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200902/images/euT2mProbMon.gif

^ All very correct, but its too late now!

So, if ever your planning on using the rather long range CFS models, always wait till a few weeks before hand, after all the independent forecasters have issued their thoughts.

All very incorrect

[UV-RAY]

High pressure will become the main feature this winter keeping it drier than normal, not saying storms won't arrive because they most likely will at times, also not saying we won't get substancial snow fall's from time to time but these will most likely only last a week max for most unlike 2010 when it was a month long freeze.

High pressure will become the main feature this winter keeping it drier than normal, not saying storms won't arrive because they most likely will at times, also not saying we won't get substancial snow fall's from time to time but these will most likely only last a week max for most unlike 2010 when it was a month long freeze.

W

For someone who was overly optimistic about a good summer on the back of Net Weathers LRF, and then chase every FI chart that promised heat, I find your views on winter rather amusing.

[ZONE 51]

The chart above would be very disappointing. The actual weather from that chart would be a cool NW/WNW,ly flow with any wintry precipitation being restricted to the high ground in Scotland. The max temps in location such as London would be around 7/8C.

ah i was half a sleep! yes i know as can see the arrows, but i did say"but the low closer to our shores in the North sea"just under the chart, i do understand synoptic setups, il post another chart or make one to show what i mean.

[ZONE 51]

Yes, I think he did say the Scandi low would be more to the west. But I can't see how this would be sustained for over a month, maybe 3 or 4 days and it isn't very cold anyway. Looks like a prediction for a +ve NAO and the start of a mild stretch. However I am no expert that's for sure and I do appreciate the forecast very much.

yes i did say that thanks! and the second bit i bolded because i said in my post that its the setup i expect could start of winter weather ,but as you say that low would not last, and i should have made it clear that was not the predicted set up for a month!

[Met4Cast]

Are we in a virtually identical state to the lead up of the winter of 2008-2009??

For those of you who don't know, 2008-2009 was the first of the real cold winters we have seen recently, snow fell in London on the last few days of October I believe, the first week or so of December saw a real cold spell in Northern England especially the Pennines (29th November to 5th December)

January was another cold and pretty snowy month in the usual locations; Scotland and Northern England; where about 5 days where snowy,

Then of course there was February where the snow and cold was much more widespread and heavy.

Anyway, talking of that Winter, for those relying on the CFS models, they messed up 2008-2009 big time.

Here is the models as of September 2008

http://www.cpc.ncep....uT2mProbMon.gif

^ alright I suppose except for the average forecast February

http://www.cpc.ncep....uT2mProbMon.gif

^ Models in October 2008, even more incorrect

http://www.cpc.ncep....uT2mProbMon.gif

^ November models, one month away from the first cold spell in December, what are the models playing at?

http://www.cpc.ncep....uT2mProbMon.gif

^ models are taking the mick now!

http://www.cpc.ncep....uT2mProbMon.gif

^ January a touch better but February is just totally wrong!

http://www.cpc.ncep....uT2mProbMon.gif

^ All very correct, but its too late now!

So, if ever your planning on using the rather long range CFS models, always wait till a few weeks before hand, after all the independent forecasters have issued their thoughts.

All very incorrect

We have to remember though, that, that was 3 years ago now. The models have been updated, no doubt tweaked and improved since then. They called last years cold winter generally correct in October I believe, I don't have a link to the archived charts and I'm going on memory, so don't hold me to that.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Trees are starting to change colour here which I think is a little early. Been quite chilly for most of the second half of summer too, but the introduction of windy conditions this week makes it feel much more like the beginnings of autumn.

No doubt we will get a calmer period for while too, but definitely feels like autumn is on it's way. Around this time I start looking forward to cold and dark days and nights where you get to feel hygge by staying in a warm pub all day sheltered from the weather. Me? strange? Never!

[snowking]

For anyone who wants a link to the archive:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/

It got fairly close from September onwards last year - though if we bear in mind it's a probability map, it was sitting on the fence a lot with only low confidence in cold/mild conditions prevailing right up until November.

Big improvement on the previous year though

SK

[Harry444]

Last year Septembers CFS models were alright, Octobers were not as good but more on the inaccurate side but Novembers were spot on. I don't really like to consider the models being useful (judging from last winter) though, as surely a 6 month forecast doesn't have to be correct only the months before the Winter starts (November?)

As for the August models for 2010-2011, they were also alright but a bit on the downside to an extent that they forecast November well below and December average, so not too much inaccuracy.

July was useless, but that was very very very very long before the Winter, so not too much complaining there

[Charlotte Cope]

Nhc has katia still at hurricane strength as it hit's N England on Monday , could be quite an autumn storm .

Edited September 7, 2011 by Charlotte Cope

[weatherobsuk]

Leaves starting to turn on a few of the trees around here now, aswell as the humidity of the past summer being replaced by the returning maritime airmass which gives that 'chill' in the air, but still when the sun comes out you can feel its high UV content being close to the equinox yet. I don't mind the later stages of Autumn into Winter as the heat in summer can sometimes be unbearable as there is no escape, not even during the nighttime hours. At least in Autumn you can warm up by wearing layers, taking showers/baths or exercising.

Not to mention the aesthetic luxury of knowing a full day has actually been and gone with the daytime/nighttime light equalising out around September 21st, again in the Summer it feels like it's a consistent day and plays havok with the senses. The Icelanders know this feeling all too well.

[Geordiesnow]

For someone who was overly optimistic about a good summer on the back of Net Weathers LRF, and then chase every FI chart that promised heat, I find your views on winter rather amusing.

Nothing wrong with giving a prediction though, perhaps your responce was more in the sence that he was predicting winter will turn out how you don't want it too?

Personally, I don't give too hoots abouts what this chart says, what this weather organisation says, what X or Y says, I'll look at the models and see what they say before 96 hours, too many people just read too much into charts regardless if they are showing what they want too see or not.

Having said that, I'm still prepared to read peoples thoughts just for the sheer fun from it, I won't be getting all uptight or excited over any forecasts for the winter ahead.

[damianslaw]

Increasing signs that autumn has well and truly arrived here, leaves are rapidly turning and many are being stripped from trees due to the strong winds. Surface water everywhere.. it feels like the 7th October not 7th September.

[ZONE 51]

Just thought il open up this one again as its still Autumn.

dug out some posts of mine and i realise that im getting better at predicting long range! its exciting to do and ive been wrong and right.

-

Beyond Summer

Posted by ElectricSnowStorm on 20 August 2011 - 00:45 in Weather Discussion and Chat

Im expecting an active Atlantic through sept and oct, more especially mid sept up to and through the most part of october, some deep lows

forming soon, but i expect potent lows mid atlantic to buffet the UK, most likely mid sept onwards, using tropical energy as the feeder...

-

Thoughts For Autumn 2011

Posted by ElectricSnowStorm on 17 August 2011 - 02:50 in Weather Discussion and Chat

im thinking about the the predicted TSs sparking off and influencing our weather patterns later in sept and oct, i think a sudden growth of

altlantic deep lows later in sept using this energy, the warm air mixing in making for some potent mid atlantic storms, and the jet stream in a

pattern south then the firing line being southern england, i expect a storm through the period-mid sept but especially at start of oct, jet

patterns can alter in time, and highs can pulse in and also alter the lows movement.

so who knows at this stage cant really predict the storms track! but i do expect an over active atlantic period to come early, with these storms

or deep lows more south altantic than north.

-

-todays post below.

going by the amount of Atlantic activity now then i would expect a long time before we get a sustained High, i think this will show its self in October bringing our first widespread frosts right down to the South, i dont think this would last with the Atlantic rolling in again after around a week maybe more.

as to my posts there i now think the Atlantic high to form faster then i thought before, what do others think about the potential build of a strong High in october?

Edited September 8, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Aaron]

Nhc has katia still at hurricane strength as it hit's N England on Monday , could be quite an autumn storm .

Mmm, a proper Autumn storm, yes please!

[philglossop]

Interesting to note that the trees are starting to turn across the country, including down here. Much much earlier compared to previous years, normally it's late September/early October here, but I'm guessing thanks to that dry spring and warmth in April the leaves were out in full earlier- so it's to be expected that they are falling earlier.

[Robbie Garrett]

I rarely think looking at these things so far in advanced ever! As it rarely is it correct, but is that an early, long cold winter starting there? High pressure building in the mid Atlantic and over Mother Russia! Allowing the lows to come in over the top....

Could well be?

Edited September 8, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[Gavin P]

LOL! Well, the high pressure to the extreme north-east is indeed the start of the Siberian High forming. The high in the Atlantic is simply the displaced Azores High which has been sitting roughly in that position all summer.

[Backtrack]

If this current pattern doesn't change. We will be in for a VERY mild winter indeed. Not good. I hope it changes, but I've been hoping it will change all Summer, it just isn't happening it seems.

Can anyone tell me if there is any change in the 500mb charts?

Also, I think it's time we started a thread for Winter. That's all most people are interested in, plus it is now beyond summer.

Edited September 8, 2011 by Backtrack