Autumn 2011

[ITSY]

thank yall for that - im currently living in leeds though - need to update my whereabouts!

[ITSY]

interesting FI charts again today - the scandi high is preferred again by GFS. its in idea it likes atm

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thus far the cold, wet stormy autumn is out of the window. More settled period again after this breakdown? reminds me thus far of 1985 and we had a very cold end to winter....I believe someone has been musing that idea of cold coming late.

BFTP

[damianslaw]

I do find the first half of october quite a drag really - its still too early for any truly cold weather but (this year excepted) rather too late for guaranteed warmth.

I tend to find my thoughts suddenly switch to winter around mid-month as the chances of the first air frost increase rapidly and snow becomes more of a reality for the fells.

Do others feel the same about October - how I feel at the start of the month compared to the end is very different.

[Aaron]

I agree.

This time of the year is really uninteresting. When October arrives my attention switches away from summer so all this talk of high pressure and warm days is not interesting anymore.

Edited October 4, 2011 by Aaron

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Try and look at the bigger picture, look at where HP and troughs are setting themselves up and how the jet is behaving. May give you some clues of the seaons ahead...and it'll take your mind off here and now. 'Westerly' comes to mind to me.

BFTP

[Isolated Frost]

Might be shocking, but August to December is my favourite time of the year, especially October. The darker nights, the northern snow watches in Scandi, Iceland and the Arctic, the first frosts, the build up to halloween, bonfire night, christmas, the first wintry showers and first fi gems, the beautiful cold pooling that rapidly explodes around this time of year, them northerlies that penetrate towards the shetlands, those fierce atlantic storms that batter in while you cuddle close to the fire, the cold ramping and cet watches, the snow reports and the will it snow in posts... Oh how I love autumn so

[ZONE 51]

I think you rounded it all up in one there! ^

i agree with what you say Isolated Frost, now is the time to watch the winter patterns start setting up, all very exciting!

Edited October 5, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[summer blizzard]

I agree.

This time of the year is really uninteresting. When October arrives my attention switches away from summer so all this talk of high pressure and warm days is not interesting anymore.

Agreed. While Leeds is fairly dry most of the year we do not generally join in the delightful southern summer and as a result i much prefer winter as we do tend to do well in terms of snow and cold.

October is interesting from a being outside seeing the leaves and the much earlier sunsets but in weather terms nothing much happens until the polar vortex gets going in November and we see gales.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Got to say though, this looks like being one of my least favourite types of October. Mild SW/W'lies dominating LP to north HP to south. Any action likely to NW.

BFTP

[ITSY]

saw over on two that meto seasonal output is going for a colder but dryer winter at this stage...

[Summer Sun]

saw over on two that meto seasonal output is going for a colder but dryer winter at this stage...

They are indeed, some are saying worse than last year, others are saying Cold and Drier than normal, so who know's.

[Guest]

After a week of temps about 30C + or -1, with clear blue skies, it has started to cool slightly, down to 28C today and expecting lower 20's tomorrow and for the weekend with some strange unfamiliar bits of white stuff in the sky, though next week expecting temps back up to mid to upper 20's and back to that azure sky

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The pattern looks set now with a westerly dominance and an overall 'mild' October the call as suspected. As far as I'm concerned and regards to the further outlook I'd like to see the development of some storms to start to track further south as the month goes on...

BFTP

The pattern looks set now with a westerly dominance and an overall 'mild' October the call as suspected. As far as I'm concerned and regards to the further outlook I'd like to see the development of some storms to start to track further south.

BFTP

[Aaron]

Darn, a boring October, unless we get a storm of course.

[Summer Sun]

The pattern looks set now with a westerly dominance and an overall 'mild' October the call as suspected. As far as I'm concerned and regards to the further outlook I'd like to see the development of some storms to start to track further south as the month goes on...

BFTP

Yes looking like a mild October is on the cards, i also see each time GFS updates all the storms which appear to move into the UK get shifted back up into Greenland as high pressure builds over the UK, could this be a sign of things to come?

[Isolated Frost]

Yes looking like a mild October is on the cards, i also see each time GFS updates all the storms which appear to move into the UK get shifted back up into Greenland as high pressure builds over the UK, could this be a sign of things to come?

lol you love your settled weather don't you? haha

anyway, you're quite right - the jet is north, so lp systems to the north, hp to the south, the uk sandwiched, but tbf we are always closer to the hp which should keep us warmer generally, more settled, sunny (for the south at least) and should lead us into November. I'm hoping that we get pattern changes soon, but not until December or so - I want some settled, frosty weather - all I've had is settled, mild weather grrrr!

[ZONE 51]

The pattern looks set now with a westerly dominance and an overall 'mild' October the call as suspected. As far as I'm concerned and regards to the further outlook I'd like to see the development of some storms to start to track further south as the month goes on...

BFTP

and that would be a sign of a south movement of the jet pattern if it did occur..

but looking through the models cant see any signs just yet, but it is possible as i would expect the jet stream to start going on holiday south! so the lows running further south unless we have high pressure to block them of which is also possible and the signs are there of that.

Edited October 8, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

240hrs..

[mackerel sky]

Christ,

"James has personally studied many aspects of weather since a young age. He currently possesses a vocational qualification in Natural Sciences, and is in the latter stages of completing his Bachelor of Science degree in Physical Geography. "

I've got a BSc, MSc and a PhD in geophysics. Maybes I should start selling tittle tattle stories to the Daily Express. I've missed a trick here.

[ZONE 51]

early thoughts on late autumn..

I expect above average snowfall this winter, larger than normal snow depths across most areas all the way to the South, more precipitation falling as snow or wet snow rather then rainfall, early snow cover across europe leading to colder air , this starting to form during november, the cold air building over n/ne Europe, high pressure placement essential to tap in to the cold blasts for november, this cold will be there by mid november i expect, with heavy snows arriving in the UK from mid november from the n/ne.

lrf coming soon!

some low level snow could arrive earlier by early november across the North but i expect the big freeze to arrive mid november, this blasting all areas with snowfall and icy winds from the ne although a north wind first.

Edited October 9, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

and that would be a sign of a south movement of the jet pattern if it did occur..

Yes it is and it is something I am anticipating to occur. I'll also add that it is IMO crucial to winter's development. Personally with the current solar state and long term cycle/s we will see a southerly trcking jet again.

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Well, I went for 28-30 for the highest autumn temp, as Oct 1st hit 29.9...

[ITSY]

I feel this winter won't be particularly nasty; if anything my instinct tells me it will be warmER and driER than the last couple winters. I think we'll see periods of cold but that, whilst bad, won't be as long or as severe as last winter. I also don't think that November or December will punch anywhere the same force as 2010 - I am, officially, expecting an average (potentially above average if I was pushed one way or the other) Winter. I'm in the middle of dissertations, but as they pass with autumn i'll post my reasons - though, by then of course, my views may have changed slightly. In the mean time, for those in the south/midlands, enjoy the relative later this week/weekend - I don't think temps will touch 20C again for a while. FEEL FREE to throw this back in my face if Siberian blizzards arrive - since that is what I would prefer, just not what I think will happen.

Edited October 10, 2011 by ITSY

[Guest]

Sitting in the garden typing this - temps still in high 20's - actually my thermometer says 30C but I think it over reads - very dry air - we have a bit of a northerly at the moment so likely a fohn effect from the Massif - clear blue skies - will be lighting the barbie later for some nice lamb chops

Next 9 days from Meteo France

mardi 11 28° Soleil

mercredi 12 28° Soleil

jeudi 13 25° Soleil

vendredi 14 24° Variable

samedi 15 22° Variable

dimanche 16 23° Soleil

lundi 17 22° Soleil

mardi 18 22° Variable

mercredi 19 22° Variable

Now that's the kind of autumn I like

Edited October 10, 2011 by mike Meehan