Autumn 2011

[chionomaniac]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a severe wind event in November. With the way the PV is increasing in the stratosphere and aligned to the MJO phase 2, a more zonal pattern is likely. With this type of pattern we are always more likely to see this occur - it may just need a shift of the trough eastwards.

[Isolated Frost]

Indeed chiono, I've been watching that pv really take it's place - circa Nov 09 but slightly less mild I'd say for November - settled spells at a premium.

[kold weather]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a severe wind event in November. With the way the PV is increasing in the stratosphere and aligned to the MJO phase 2, a more zonal pattern is likely. With this type of pattern we are always more likely to see this occur - it may just need a shift of the trough eastwards.

Thats the thing though mate, I'm not totally convinced we are going to lose this ridge of high pressure that keeps popping up from Scandinavia through Europe and into the Azores...

IF it does then where the PV is currently located and forecasted to set-up it'd certainly suggest at least the chance of an unsettled pattern BUT I'm going for the split set-up, more unsettled the further NW you go...

[damianslaw]

The past two Novembers have delivered wet conditions to the NW quarter of the country - especially 2009. We could do we a November that spreads the rainfall more evenly so SE parts also see a deluge or two from time to time. November is renowned for its general raininess and dullness and also can be very stormy - I wouldn't mind a lively wet first half to the month if it then means a colder more settled second half.

The autumn so far has been another very benign affair it has to be said especially for the southern half of the country. Little in the way of storms, gales, heavy rain, fog, frost, just very quiet often cloudy weather - all very dull it has to be said. Its about time Autumn 2011 kicked into gear and livened up, it'll be the third autumn when we have had to wait until November before autumn really got going. Traditionally the latter part of October usually delivers some lively wet wild weather, but this year like 2009, and 2010 it is failing to deliver.

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's take for November

Valid from 31/10 to 27/11 2011

Settled mid-November

*31/10/11 - 13/11/11*

Low pressure is in control across the UK in this period, all areas are likely to see spells of rather heavy and persistent rain at times as systems move through, it'll be windy at times so feeling cool beneath the cloud and rain, brighter and showery conditions at time too following as these systems clear.

Any drier and brighter weather will be short-lived as further rainy and windy spells will never be too far away, especially through northern and western Britain, the regions which are likely to bear the brunt of this unsettled weather.

Although feeling generally on the 'mild' side at first, temperatures will be suppressed beneath the cloud and rainy areas and generally latter in the period, a noticeably cooler regime will take hold as the flow become more orientated to the northwest and north, colder air being drawn into the unsettled conditions, some wintry component to the precipitation across higher ground of the north later.

*13/11/11 - 23/11/11*

There is evidence that a major pattern change will take place during this period with a greater influence from high pressure being noticed the overall recent mobile pattern should begin to weaken as high pressure builds close to the UK, conditions settling during mid-month.

During this period we should enter a 'classic' mid-autumn type of weather, settled, cool, misty and foggy overnight with frost, this clearing to sunny spells and variable cloud in most spots, however persisting in favoured and prone locations where it'll be cool and cloudy.

This variability in fortunes dictated by the amount and variability of cloud that'll drift around the high in a very slack wind pattern so day to day detail and subtle variations will be difficult to pin down.

Coastal areas will be breezy at times and patch cloud will plague some areas, north-western Britain may see some patchy rain later as a south-westerly flow establishes over western Scotland later.

*23/11/11*

This is where the pattern alters as high pressure declines and allows a much more unsettled regime to establish, temperatures may respond to the temporary incursion of Atlantic air, this particularly for more northern areas, the chilly weather perhaps lingering across southern England.

As the month draws to a close a colder flow from the north or northwest pushes unsettled and rather showery conditions south and east through all areas, the latter stages of November perhaps seeing wintry showers for most areas of the UK, winter in its true form yet to make an appearance but something of just a taste for more northern areas perhaps?

http://www.weatheron...ad&DAY=20111029

[SLEETY]

Seems wrong already

Although feeling generally on the 'mild' side at first,

noticeably cooler regime will take hold as the flow become more orientated to the northwest and north, colder air being drawn into the unsettled conditions, some wintry component to the precipitation across higher ground of the north later.????????

No sign of any cold air in the next 2 weeks

[Summer Sun]

Seems wrong already

Although feeling generally on the 'mild' side at first,

noticeably cooler regime will take hold as the flow become more orientated to the northwest and north, colder air being drawn into the unsettled conditions, some wintry component to the precipitation across higher ground of the north later.????????

No sign of any cold air in the next 2 weeks

There is no sign of any thing cold for just about all of November, we could see a few records broken next month it wouldn't suprise me if the November CET is one of the warmest on record.

[Liam J]

It's likely to be one of the warmest Octobers on record according to Alex Deakin on Countryfile just now.

[Aaron]

Certainly doesn't feel like it though it certainly has not been unpleasant.

[ZONE 51]

Seems wrong already

Although feeling generally on the 'mild' side at first,

noticeably cooler regime will take hold as the flow become more orientated to the northwest and north, colder air being drawn into the unsettled conditions, some wintry component to the precipitation across higher ground of the north later.????????

No sign of any cold air in the next 2 weeks

interestingly there is a sign of something colder later in november, and yes a risk of snow showers over the hills, i expect a north wind/flow then a northeasterly for a while before a milder hit then high pressure. anyway looking foward to the possible record breaking warmth, im enjoying the warm evenings!

nice warm southerly flow..

Edited October 31, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Early Storm Warning

Keeping a close watch on developments through the week for potentially a damaging gale,

deep area of low pressure moving into western side, long drawn isobars shown tightly packed together indicating gales perhaps severe

Edited October 31, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

A zone of where i expect the strongest winds to be - at this stage

Looking at GFS model we would be tracking this gale from tuesday evening pushing into western areas, also to note is the thundery potential with all this through the week, fronts/troughs unstable air could give alot of thunderstorm activity!

Edited October 31, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[jean91]

Here are 2 pics of far suburbs in South west Paris ( today was a bank holiday in France so took a walk in the far suburbs roughly 20 to 25miles from Paris) but it is same colors all around and in Paris too.

Some very good autumm colors best since 2009 I very much like autumm for this too.Last year was not that good.2009 was also a astonishing autumm colors.

It may be thanks to the cooler mid october nights before the mild days that we have now.

Here rain of today was going and some some sunny spells were developing

Not sure it is the best place to post them

Edited November 1, 2011 by jean91

[joggs]

come on then, ive been asking a couple times already!

Regarding the big 3 models, what are peeps thoughts for bonfire night?

I only ask because im having a party and im hoping for dry weather.

i live in west yorkshire. thanks in advance.

[peterf]

come on then, ive been asking a couple times already!

Regarding the big 3 models, what are peeps thoughts for bonfire night?

I only ask because im having a party and im hoping for dry weather.

i live in west yorkshire. thanks in advance.

type your postcode into the relevant feature on the relevant page.

[ZONE 51]

Jean91 great photos, especially like the panoramic(first photo), that would be great on a calender!

Keeping a watch for a potentially very windy period up the western side from today, XC weather showing some strong gusts already in the West - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ - wind watch here.

Edited November 2, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[SP1986]

first airfrosts of the Autumn due for some parts of NW England on Monday-Tuesday nights. Bit of a kick really, as the shock from going from no lower than 6C to sub zero could be a shock to much for some plants in the garden.

Never mind though, I think definitely this will be the first hard frost in my location, as here we tend to get much harder frosts than anywhere else when the wind falls calm.

[Aaron]

Hope you get your first air frost.. my first air frost should've arrived in October.. with this current cloud, mild setup it probably won't be til late November/early December til I record one..

[Isolated Frost]

Met office predicting 0c for Durham on Monday morning- I'd only have to hope so. Lowest temp 1.4c so far.

[Isolated Frost]

MO upgrade; 3c tonight and -1c tomorrow night here in Durham

[SP1986]

The temperature will of course, fall much lower than that in rural areas. I'd say -5C isn't out of the question for some particularly sheltered areas.

The Met-O forecast 2C tomorrow night here, but I think in the situation with all variables accounted for, 0 to -2C is more realistic. However you never know it is a relatively warm airmass and I do reside on a hill top. On the other hand stuck slap bang in the midst of high pressure with no wind to speak of, it is highly unlikely an airfrost won't be recorded.

Quite early for a coastal town too.

[Aaron]

Places like Shap and Keswick will probably end up being the coldest.

[La Bise]

Not that sure Aaron, I'd put more money on places like Edale, surrounded by hills and where wind should be nil. Shap is quite exposed to any breeze.

Then again, cloud cover could scupper that...

[SP1986]

I personally think somewhere in Cheshire or somewhere near will get the lowest. I'd be tempted to go with Hawarden with lowest official reading - I'd say -3C there. As for otherwise, I'd go for St Helens, or Glossop.

[Aaron]

Shap is in a valley so is not too exposed.