Autumn 2011

[Liam J]

Shap is in a valley so is not too exposed.

Shap is quite exposed and by no means in a valley that is sheltered from the elements, it got down to -3c overnight.

[Aaron]

Surely not as exposed as Great Dun Fell.. B)

[Isolated Frost]

First air frost of this wonderful season here tonight! :smilz38: Oh yes, santa's on his way!

[trisnow]

Do the MO calculate an Autumn CET for these three months? Are we expecting it to come in quite high overall if they do?

Gotta be up there with the warmest with November not showing too many signs of throwing us some cold?

[summer blizzard]

Decent chance of the second warmest Autumn on record.

[Aaron]

Sure feels like it too (not)

[jean91]

Hello to all,

Don't know the situation in Uk but here in France but this first decade of november up till 10th november it is simply the warmest ever in all stations out of a panel of 99 for average temps

.Some stations are recoding average night time temps above the usual day time average up till the 10th.Bourg St Maurice is not far off 9c of anomaly for this first decade.Only 7 stations have an anomaly under 4c ( Brest Cherbourg and Bastia lowest at 3.3c!!!)

This autumm is currently the second ranking after 2006 at 2.17c above up till the 10th.

2006 was for sept oct and nov 2.9c warmer nationaly which is remarkable and way too much to surpass!!!

On a jan to en of oct in some stations in Northen France are in the way( some very into the way) for the warmest year ever ( like in Paris which will be over 2003)

Is it same it Uk?

Edited November 12, 2011 by jean91

[Isolated Frost]

Here, September was quite mild, a good 1c above the average, October was around 3c above the average and November is currently 3c above, so yes, it has been very mild, but this only in the northern part of england, in southern parts there have been very, very mild night-time temperatures so some stations could be en route to their warmest autumn recorded. 2006 was very warm here.

The warmest autumn cet (central england temperature) was in 2006 if I recall correctly, and the warmest november cet was in 1994, when the average was 10.1c.

[jean91]

Here, September was quite mild, a good 1c above the average, October was around 3c above the average and November is currently 3c above, so yes, it has been very mild, but this only in the northern part of england, in southern parts there have been very, very mild night-time temperatures so some stations could be en route to their warmest autumn recorded. 2006 was very warm here.

The warmest autumn cet (central england temperature) was in 2006 if I recall correctly, and the warmest november cet was in 1994, when the average was 10.1c.

Yes same as in France, 2006 was as crazy as summer 2003 for the autumm temps!!!Some in France dubbed this 2006 autumm as a mistake from mother nature as much as it was warm all along!!!!But then 2011 will without much doubt take second place!!!!

Edited November 12, 2011 by jean91

[A Winter's Tale]

What's the current Autumn mean temperature and how does it compare to other years. I've got a feeling that we could see the warmest Autumn ever? Hopefully the winter that followed was cold!!!

[summer blizzard]

What's the current Autumn mean temperature and how does it compare to other years. I've got a feeling that we could see the warmest Autumn ever? Hopefully the winter that followed was cold!!!

2006 was the warmest Autumn on record and was followed by one of the mildest winters on record.

No idea what the current mean is however we require a record November for the warmest Autumn which looks unlikely to occur although we stand a very good chance of recording the 2nd warmest Autumn on record.

[TonyH]

What I get from this thread is that we are rubbish at seasonal forecasts. !

[jean91]

2006 was the warmest Autumn on record and was followed by one of the mildest winters on record.

No idea what the current mean is however we require a record November for the warmest Autumn which looks unlikely to occur although we stand a very good chance of recording the 2nd warmest Autumn on record.

Yes same here in France it is almost sure that 2011 will get second place . Autumm 2006 just placed the target too high!!!!!. 2009 was very good too i think second after 2006 ( not sure though) so in 6 years we would get 3 very warm Autumms!!!!!!

[jean91]

Yes same here in France it is almost sure that 2011 will get second place . Autumm 2006 just placed the target too high!!!!!. 2009 was very good too i think second after 2006 ( not sure though) so in 6 years we would get 3 very warm Autumms!!!!!!

yes just checked 2009 is just second place but way behind 2006 , 2011 is for now ahead of 2009 so in 6 years we would get the first 3 warmest Autumms for100years or more !!!!

[Kentish Kiwi]

yes just checked 2009 is just second place but way behind 2006 , 2011 is for now ahead of 2009 so in 6 years we would get the first 3 warmest Autumms for100years or more !!!!

And the two warmest Aprils and presumably two of the warmest springs (I know this Spring was the warmest on record but not sure about 2007).

[wimblettben]

Not only has this Autumn been mild, but it has also been very unusual. For instance the Atlantic seemed the most active at the beginning with the likes of Hurricane Katia for example crossing our shores. But overal since early September there hasn't really been that much action in the atlantic at all this Autumn. And what is also strange is that this year most of the active weather happened in September, where normally it happens at the end of the season instead.

The heatwave at the end of September and beginning of October was one unusual event with records actually being broken!

Edited November 16, 2011 by wimblettben

[95 Degrees]

Another dissapointing Autumn again, was hoping for a bit for exictment from the Atlantic, but no winds above 30mph since early september and little real rain as well. anyone here hit gale force since september?

[summer blizzard]

I think that is a good point to make as the Tropics actually shut down pretty much after September (1 Hurricane in October and 1 so far in November).

[Optimus Prime]

When was the last time southern England experienced an autumnal gale? (I.e frequent gusts above 60 MPH over a wide area)

2002 springs to mind.

[A Winter's Tale]

This has been the worst Autumn Ever!

Hardly any frost, no wind, very mild and very dull.

[wimblettben]

When was the last time southern England experienced an autumnal gale? (I.e frequent gusts above 60 MPH over a wide area)

2002 springs to mind.

I actualy have a video of that day, I look much younger in it.

Didn't realise the winds were that strong on that day, although the video is very loud from the wind in the gusts.

[ZONE 51]

GFS and NAE showing the risk of snowfall across the high tops and mountains of Scotland, just a risk of sleet i think in some other far Northern hills!

Here is a snow risk chart i have done, snow above 500m for Scotland, with wet snow/sleet above 200m there to.

Edited November 25, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Harps]

Some heavy hail showers here tonight, should hopefully get some snow on the hilltops tomorrow, 0C isotherm is around 500m here for a while tomorrow according to the GFS

[Weather-history]

Looks like it is going to be very dry autumn for England and Wales., sub 200mm, could be in the top 25 driest

As for November, it depends how much falls in the the last few days but it could be sub 50mm and be in the top 25 driest as well

[Weather-history]

Driest Novembers on record for England and Wales

17.0 1945

23.1 1805

25.1 1788

30.6 1867

33.0 1909

33.3 1956

35.0 2011 (up to 28th)

37.3 1879

38.4 1855

40.4 1871

40.7 1896

42.0 1942

42.4 1862

43.5 1889

44.4 1782

44.9 1920

46.1 1856

46.3 1933

47.2 1851

47.4 1858

47.5 1792

48.4 1774

48.6 1908

48.7 1922

49.5 1771

Driest autumns on record for England and Wales

128.6 1978

131.9 1817

138.6 1805

143.8 1788

147.2 1784

150.2 1947

157.0 2011 (up to 28th)

158.6 1964

161.5 1922

164.0 1921

165.2 1904

165.5 1985

167.6 1851

168.0 1879

169.4 1884

170.3 1834

173.8 1908

179.2 2007

180.0 1809

182.3 1956