Autumn 2011

[Gavin P]

You have bypassed dinner and cut to the chase? What about autumn, I can imagine an autumn thread, but winter thread? I would wait till around Mid summer(last years was made around then), like the spring thread was made at the start of the year, 3 months beforehand.

Anyway early indications for AUTUMN on cfs show:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

September Unsettled, with some blocking to the north and low pressure around the uk and the south, could be cool at times, but also mild at times looking at those anomalies.

October, dry and cold at times, relatively cool/cold by the looks of it.

November- Neutral atm, but the indications a few days ago showed a similar anomaly to september, with the blocking a bit more intense and the blue anomalies stretching over the azores, maybe another cold november.

I think an unsettled and wild autumn could be on the card though, with us gradually sliding into the cold and an early winter.

My interpretation of those CFS anomolies would be;

September - Very wet with near stationary trough over or slightly to the west of the UK. Temperatures near normal or perhaps rather warm.

October - Cold and probably very wet with greenland blocking and a southerly tracking jet stream.

November - Who knows?

As far as my own opinion on winter 2011/2012 goes, much to early to say. Though it would be quite amazing to have a fourth colder than average winter in a row.

Edited May 24, 2011 by Gavin P

[SP1986]

Due to the early nature of this post all I'd say is, if this summer is anything less than exceptional in terms of heat and sunshine then we could be looking at another very cold early winter period.

[gpspete]

Realistically speaking here....

Can you have a BBQ in winter? No

Can you have fun in the park or local woodland as often as you would like in Winter compared to Summer? No

Can you sit outside with a beer at hand in Winter? No

I was watching a tv programe about Alaska and what the residents do in there very cold dark weather in the middle of winter

they have BBQ's

they go outside and enjoy themselves

they sit outside bye BBQ and have a beer

Edited May 24, 2011 by gpspete

[Summer of 95]

Is it early for this? Well it's 4-5 months since the last snowfall for much of the country, which is normally about early September, so like the trees and plants it's not surprising some of us mammals are getting confused :lol:

[mountain shadow]

Well, we continue to have a relatively quiet sun and errupting volcanoes, could be another good one, although January and February were nothing special.

[Bottesford]

Since we're in what is currently the best time of year, the very idea of winter makes me feel queasy.

Who wants to think about constant darkness, heavy traffic, isolation, artificially heated rooms, no fresh air and being stuck indoors all the time during this wonderfully free time of year?! (yes I know full well there are some of you that do). Not me that's for sure!

Late November I generally don't think about the upcoming summer either mostly since it seems such a distant & wonderful dream...

[J10]

And to think some people criticise the Glastonbury forecasts starting 1 and a half months ahead.

Each to their own, but why think of Winter, before the summer has even started.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Any thoughts on winter 2012-13? Just in case the next one does not deliver??

[Somerset Squall]

I think an unsettled and wild autumn could be on the card though, with us gradually sliding into the cold and an early winter.

Yes please! That would be my ideal

[95 Degrees]

Any thoughts on winter 2012-13? Just in case the next one does not deliver??

There won't be one, the world is going to (cough) end,:lol: not true of course.

[spindrift1980]

Some decent snowfalls at high levels in the west highlands today (link to Glencoe webcam below) and 6C with gales and hail on the outskirts of Glasgow at midday today...

http://www.winterhig...encoe/index.php

The beginning of winter 2011/12 methinks (or maybe just the Scottish summer...)

[Nights King]

This thread brought a smile to my face while having a quick check in.

I would like to see a winter like last but can it really happen again after 3 good winters???!

I can't help but think the law of averages says we are due a proper mild washout of a winter this year.

Edited May 24, 2011 by mullender83

[stewfox]

Any thoughts on winter 2012-13? Just in case the next one does not deliver??

Kids today (under 8 never knew that their forefathers use to lamp post watch at 4am in the 'old days' to see a flake of snow which usually occurred in March.

If we have another cold snap and people moaning they only had one record cold month or lying snow for 3 weeks will people see the lamp post watchers as urban myths ?

My garden last year in that pear shape winter we had

Edited May 24, 2011 by stewfox

[Winter Warmer]

[Jack Wales]

Feb 1991 blizzard, you must be bonkers posting about this coming winter which is 6 - 9 months away!!!! Anyway, while we're on the subject, I suppose we can look for some early indicators...

The most important one being the ENSO sst profile in the Pacific, normally a strong anomaly be it El Nino or La Nina = mild winter for NW Europe, here are the NCEP ensembles...

As you see the early indications are for a fairly neutral ENSO which tends to favour 'blocked' conditions in the mid latitudes.

Secondly there are the 30mb zonal wind anomalies, also known as the QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation)...

QBO Historical Values

By winter 2011/12, we will be in a negative phase of QBO, which also tends to support blocking and positive height anomolies in the arctic.

Therefore, IMO very early indications show that, temperaturewise at least, a below average winter could be on the cards.

Edited May 24, 2011 by Jack Wales

[ZONE 51]

[ZONE 51]

it is actually an interesting idea opening the thread to see what members come out with!

i have not looked that far ahead yet as im set to enjoy the summer! but we are experiencing some unusual patterns and events over the last few years, we have had a volcano last year and now we have another, all in a short space of time, im not saying this would effect our winter ahead as we did have severe cold and snow before this(jan10) but its something to look into i think, we have had a strong El-nino and La-nina, both winters the effect was severe cold and snowy periods, this winter neither effect is looking to be strong, we could say a mild winter is due..but is it? are we going to see even earlier cold this year, are the seasons starting to be pulled back a few weeks? many questions to think about, i do know that nature will show autumn early this year, as its process has and is early due to the april climate, but is the weather going to join the early club?

Edited May 25, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Osbourne One-Nil]

it is actually an interesting idea opening the thread to see what members come out with!

Possibly, but I wonder if it would be even more interesting looking at some of last year's forecasts....particularly the more lauded ones, and seeing how they actually fared? As is always the way, after much trumpet blowing, people tend to fade away and their forecasts get forgotten about.

[Coast]

Well time flys these days so it will soon be upon us

I'm actually very disappointed in this thread, I thought you would have gone further out, say Winter 2012/13. Such a lightweight

[Stuart]

why are we talking about Winter 2011-2012 at this time of the year

[Weather-history]

There is a season that comes between summer and winter and its called autumn. Its sadly neglected and last autumn was fairly interesting with some interesting weather.

[Gavin P]

There is a season that comes between summer and winter and its called autumn. Its sadly neglected and last autumn was fairly interesting with some interesting weather.

CFS seems to be indicating a very wet autumn (well September and October) at the moment.

Would be a change. We've not had a wet September since 2000 and we've not had a wet October since 2004.

Edited May 25, 2011 by Gavin P

[Osbourne One-Nil]

There is a season that comes between summer and winter and its called autumn. Its sadly neglected and last autumn was fairly interesting with some interesting weather.

Good point - I've edited the title to reflect this and perhaps create a bit more of a meaningful thread.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is a season that comes between summer and winter and its called autumn. Its sadly neglected and last autumn was fairly interesting with some interesting weather.

Thinking back, it was indeed- November in particular was surely up there with the most interesting and varied months that I've ever had the pleasure of living through (it's easy to forget that it also had a very warm wet start, gales in the second week, and a quiet frosty interlude in the middle, as well as that phenomenal cold spell in the last week).

Many members of N-W are interested either only in winter, or only in winter and summer and I think that's why we see spring and autumn skipped (although we do quite often see people pining for "Spring" it tends to be a case of hoping for spring to act as an extension of summer).

As for the winter, I don't think we can have much of an idea at this range- even the teleconnections probably won't be too useful due to the large number of variables that mount up over 6-9 months.

[Jack Wales]

Yes, November 2010 was phenomenal here too, very mild to start with a really cold end. I remember taking the kids to see Santa at the end of November to the Heritage Park in Pontypridd. I know car temp readings are not always accurate but seeing it read -4C (whilst moving) at 2pm was quite remarkable. The joy about spring and autumn is that they have scope to surprise us with heat or cold. October 2008 being a classic example where it was warm enough for the kids to play in the paddling pool mid month, only for snow to be lying on the ground at the end of the month.