Autumn 2011

[johnholmes]

sorry but blackberries or any other fruit or flowers do NOT react to what may happen only to what HAS happened

[Snowmadsam]

Sorry John, just a thought....

[johnholmes]

Sorry John, just a thought....

no problems mate lots of folk think the same but its just not true-one of those weather tales that stick around

[mushymanrob]

sorry but blackberries or any other fruit or flowers do NOT react to what may happen only to what HAS happened

exactly... abundant berries on bushes equate to sunny warm weather when they were in flower, allowing bees / insects to pollinate more of them.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

exactly... abundant berries on bushes equate to sunny warm weather when they were in flower, allowing bees / insects to pollinate more of them.

Nature is REACTIVE not PROACTIVE !!

[cheeky_monkey]

How mild or cold winter is has a direct effect on the amount of heating, because surely the level to which your heating goes on depends on the outside temperature.

My system uses a thermostat, which means that if it is very cold outside, it uses much more gas and generates a higher water temperature to keep the house at the right temperature.

If the weather was milder, it wouldn't need as much gas and such a high water temperature to keep the house at the right temperature.

Because we run this thermostat the heating would come on even in July if it was cold enough, and it has indeed done so a few times. The difference in winter is that it is on nearly all the time, and the colder the temperature in winter, the more gas it uses.

the water temperature in central heating will have a set high temperature regardless of how cold or mild it is outside. This is set either on the boiler or the hot water tank...basic central heating systems just arent that clever that they regulate the water temperature according to the external temperature.

the thermostat will regulate the inside temp of the air not the temperature of the water..once a the water temperature has reached the required level it takes very little gas to keep it there..you are liable to use more electricity in cold weather pumping the water around the system than using much more gas.

[TEITS]

How mild or cold winter is has a direct effect on the amount of heating, because surely the level to which your heating goes on depends on the outside temperature.

Exactly and to be honest I don't understand some of the comments. The type of winter we have makes a huge difference to my heating bill. For example if the weather is mild then I only have my heating on for a few hrs in the evening and sometimes not at all. However a cold spell like last Dec means I have my heating on for 24hrs.

I pay my bills quarterly and I estimate that a cold winter like 1962/3 would increase these bills by around £200. This is why I would dread another winter like 62/3.

[cheeky_monkey]

Exactly and to be honest I don't understand some of the comments. The type of winter we have makes a huge difference to my heating bill. For example if the weather is mild then I only have my heating on for a few hrs in the evening and sometimes not at all. However a cold spell like last Dec means I have my heating on for 24hrs.

I pay my bills quarterly and I estimate that a cold winter like 1962/3 would increase these bills by around £200. This is why I would dread another winter like 62/3.

every winter here is 62/63 x10..my gas/electric goes from $500 for the summer quarter to $2500 in the winter quarter..its just a fact of life

[feb1991blizzard]

Exactly and to be honest I don't understand some of the comments. The type of winter we have makes a huge difference to my heating bill. For example if the weather is mild then I only have my heating on for a few hrs in the evening and sometimes not at all. However a cold spell like last Dec means I have my heating on for 24hrs.

I pay my bills quarterly and I estimate that a cold winter like 1962/3 would increase these bills by around £200. This is why I would dread another winter like 62/3.

My heating bill only rises by £10 in winter from £20 a month to £30, maybe £35 if i dont economise mind you the heating system really isnt adequate in here but fortunately i dont mind the cold so it doesnt bother me and in my last flat the bill was only £2 more a month in winter than in summer and that was the 2009 / 2010 winter which was the more severe one IMO because although the deep cold started later there was not what you would call a long spell of mild weather until march, that said i paid for that in the summer because i swear it must of been 40c in that block during the summer so i know what i would rather have although i appreciate that people who live in a house with a family would be greatly affected by differences in the severity of cold from one winter to the next.

[Methuselah]

Exactly and to be honest I don't understand some of the comments. The type of winter we have makes a huge difference to my heating bill. For example if the weather is mild then I only have my heating on for a few hrs in the evening and sometimes not at all. However a cold spell like last Dec means I have my heating on for 24hrs.

I pay my bills quarterly and I estimate that a cold winter like 1962/3 would increase these bills by around £200. This is why I would dread another winter like 62/3.

My winter quarter lecky cost me £82...Quilts and extra clothing always beat turning-up the thermostat IMO...

[Turnedoutniceagain]

My winter quarter lecky cost me £82...Quilts and extra clothing always beat turning-up the thermostat IMO...

Man after my own heart Peter. Wife and daughters walk around the house in January wearing teeshirts and moaning it's cold !! Last winter cured them of that - thermals and fleeces for all now. Luckily we've got a multifuel burner in the sitting-room that also heats the water up.

[Cheese Rice]

My winter quarter lecky cost me £82...Quilts and extra clothing always beat turning-up the thermostat IMO...

Yes exactly.

Some common sense is needed, instead of the majority of the UK population complaining that they can't wear a t-shirt in the house without putting the heating on put a jumper/hoodie on.

Unfortunately we have the same mentality in this house, dress for summer inside the house and blast the heating..

[Alex]

How do you know for sure.....?

This summer was supposed to be comparable to 1976.

We may be in for a cold winter, note the maybe lol!

LRFs showing December to be colder than normal.

[summer blizzard]

Anybody else getting excited, with the models looking like the rest of July will be pretty much a write off for heat, we only have August and September to get through before genuine cold is possible.

By October, easterlies are no longer warm and a high bang on top will give us frost and fog.

Very excited at the way this summer has gone.

[Cheese Rice]

Anybody else getting excited, with the models looking like the rest of July will be pretty much a write off for heat, we only have August and September to get through before genuine cold is possible.

By October, easterlies are no longer warm and a high bang on top will give us frost and fog.

Very excited at the way this summer has gone.

Its only 1 1/2 months till autumn!!!

Edited July 15, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[mcweather]

My winter quarter lecky cost me £82...Quilts and extra clothing always beat turning-up the thermostat IMO...

Couldn't agree more Peter my heating bill actually went down last December ( which was the coldest here in a record that goes back to 1879!!!!!!!) A combination of a wood burner in a central chimney stack and wearing sensible clothing indoors saw to that. This modern thought of just wearing a tee shirt in the house in winter and expecting to be warm is just plain stupid

but if people want to threw their money out the window then I suppose that's up them but I have no sympathy for them when they start to complain about heating bills. I do have great sympathy for people with medical conditions that make it difficult to stay warm though.

[bobbydog]

just to change the subject slightly, the NOAA ENSO forecast is saying that enso-neutral conditions will most likely last into autumn, then a possible return to la nina :

Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5°C and +0.5°C; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012.

i realise its just one part of the equation but i was wondering how this was likely to affect the general weather patterns for the UK and europe over the coming months

[snowlover2009]

just to change the subject slightly, the NOAA ENSO forecast is saying that enso-neutral conditions will most likely last into autumn, then a possible return to la nina :

Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5°C and +0.5°C; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012.

i realise its just one part of the equation but i was wondering how this was likely to affect the general weather patterns for the UK and europe over the coming months

Well, I am guessing we will go from neutral to weak la nina, at the end of autumn and early winter? I have read it would be very unusual or unlikely for a la nina to go moderate to strong and be stronger than the last winter, la nina. So I guess we could be odds on for a colder winter throughout this year, however if la nina did strengthen as much as last winter, we could see something similar to Jan and Feb 2011 I guess.

Just read above, all multi models predict enso neutral to continue through early 2012, so they are not expecting anything strong or mdoerate?

What do you guys think?

BTW apparently qbo is expected to be easterly, is this good for winter cold? What does it mean really?

Edited July 16, 2011 by snowlover2009

[bobbydog]

Well, I am guessing we will go from neutral to weak la nina, at the end of autumn and early winter? I have read it would be very unusual or unlikely for a la nina to go moderate to strong and be stronger than the last winter, la nina. So I guess we could be odds on for a colder winter throughout this year, however if la nina did strengthen as much as last winter, we could see something similar to Jan and Feb 2011 I guess.

Just read above, all multi models predict enso neutral to continue through early 2012, so they are not expecting anything strong or mdoerate?

What do you guys think?

BTW apparently qbo is expected to be easterly, is this good for winter cold? What does it mean really?

maybe we should start another thread but i'm not quite sure where to put it!?!

[Polar Maritime]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/63512-el-nino-and-la-nina-how-they-effect-the-north-atlantic-and-the-uk/ There was a thread here discussing La Nina and El Nino, but the topic has been locked. May be worth opening a new one

[Weather-history]

I have been glancing at the seasonal forum archive and its a pity Stratos Ferric doesn't post on here anymore as I would be interested to hear his views now after the winter 2009-10 and the coldest December (2010) for over a century. He was of the opinion that winter 2005-06 was as bad as you get and that a sub 2C month was about the floor for the CET.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well the winter of 2009-10 did show an example of where a strong El Nino has co-incided with a cold winter overall in the UK. From the records I see that it is the first time ever that this has happened. Although most strong El Ninos have co-incided with a mild winter in the UK, the best we ever came prior to 2009-10 was where a strong El Nino did co-incide with a fairly cold and snowy month (Feb 1983), although not the rest of the winter.

We have never had a cold winter overall during a Strong La Nina, winter 2010-11 is an example of a winter having an extreme early cold spell all to be over by Xmas and then the rest of the winter was not special, with the February in particular being very mild. Winter 2010-11 cannot be described as a winter that is cold overall and certainly was far from a classic.

[weatherguy]

Winter 2010-11 cannot be described as a winter that is cold overall and certainly was far from a classic.

November and December were so cold though that for me it definitely was a classic; certainly the coldest temperatures (and most prolonged cold/ice days) I have ever witnessed in my life...

Although November isn't technically winter, if you replace February with November to retain the trio of months, things definitely look colder overall for last year. Basically, winter arrived and ended earlier

Edited July 16, 2011 by weatherguy

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I would say it was a classic! true winter to me is 15th Nov to 15th Jan, shortest days, Xmas/new year period, coldest of year, some southern areas mind you have seen no snow at all in 2011, so as soon as the festive period ended, so did winter away from scotland/northern England

[Mesoscale]

I enjoyed the extreme cold and I wish it had stayed for alot longer. I went out side in -14c in the early morning, it didn't feel that cold as there was no wind but I decided I would try to walk on my pond... lets just say it didn't end well and I got a wet leg. lol

I love snow and I love thunderstorms I keep asking myself why I was born in england, what tortuous being decided this was to be my homeland? lol