Autumn 2011

[NorthernRab]

Me being a cold lover, it's hard for me to say this:

I think this Winter will be very mild. In my opinion I think we will of used up our quota of Northern blocking, leaving no room for sustained cold spells, just minor cold shots.

Sorry, but there's no such thing as a "quota" of Northern Blocking, just as there's no such thing as a quota of an active Atlantic.

[arcticadventurer]

Autumn Fruit (blackberries) beginning to appear. a lot of summer fruit ripened ealier than usual such as Blackcurrants 2-3 weeks ahead. Warm spring, mediocar summer or Harsh winter to come. Some trees leaves are beginning to change colour and I am not talking about the usual trees. We will probably get a few decent days of summer. Autumn starts in August. my gut feeling is a repeat of last year.

[Cheese Rice]

Me being a cold lover, it's hard for me to say this:

I think this Winter will be very mild. In my opinion I think we will of used up our quota of Northern blocking, leaving no room for sustained cold spells, just minor cold shots.

We had alot of rain in 2007, I think that means we used up our 'quota' of rain...

Please, explain yourself.

[snowlover2009]

The thing is, even thought we have had 3 cold winters, I can see a lot more potential of a cold one than a mild one.

[UV-RAY]

The thing is, even thought we have had 3 cold winters, I can see a lot more potential of a cold one than a mild one.

Yes I agree with that, unless there is a major shift in synoptic's, as in the jet stream moving polewards again,and blocking over greenland dispersing, then the odds for another cold winter I would say are about 60-70%.

[Methuselah]

Except that, where the jet stream is today probably has very little (if anything at all) to do with where it will be in SIX MONTHS' time...

[UV-RAY]

Except that, where the jet stream is today probably has very little (if anything at all) to do with where it will be in SIX MONTHS' time...

Off course Pete, but if you look at the last three to four years the jet stream has been slowly moving towards the equator, certainly in NW Europe, a little harder to correlate elsewhere.

[Backtrack]

We had alot of rain in 2007, I think that means we used up our 'quota' of rain...

Please, explain yourself.

Sorry, I should explained better.

Obviously there is no limit to the length of time high pressure can be over Greenland and to our West, but I think it's unlikely that all of this summer will be blocked (which it is!) and all of winter too.

[sundog]

Well this summer has been similar to the last few with regards the jet stream and the northern blocking so maybe it means the pattern will continue for another winter like the last few winters. Its like we are stuck in this pattern and i would be surprised if we dont get at least one long harsh cold spell next winter. I think next winter overall will be cold and dry. Maybe i will be eating my words in 6 months time but i think a cold winter is more likely then a mild one.

[Summer Sun]

I think Millions of people will be hoping for a mild winter this year with the fact Gas prices have gone up again today, i don't mind what winters we get but i bet many will be after a mild one, though after the previous 3 a cold one would be a good bet.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

July QBO will likely be easterly from July onwards.

May-June anologues are..

2004

2002

1999

1993

1988

1983

1978

1976

1964

1953

Mixed anologues for the coming winter at the moment which will be narrowed down once the MEI anologues are available.

[snowlover2009]

http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data

July QBO will likely be easterly from July onwards.

May-June anologues are..

2004

2002

1999

1993

1988

1983

1978

1976

1964

1953

Mixed anologues for the coming winter at the moment which will be narrowed down once the MEI anologues are available.

Are they analogues for winter above?

[summer blizzard]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

July QBO will likely be easterly from July onwards.

May-June anologues are..

2004

2002

1999

1993

1988

1983

1978

1976

1964

1953

Mixed anologues for the coming winter at the moment which will be narrowed down once the MEI anologues are available.

Also got the MEI anologues for the May-June period now..

1999

1989

1985

1974

1970

1968

1967

1966

1964

1963

1962

1960

1950

Taking into account both sets of data then the closest anologues are..

1999

1964

[Snowstorm1]

Also got the MEI anologues for the May-June period now..

1999

1989

1985

1974

1970

1968

1967

1966

1964

1963

1962

1960

1950

Taking into account both sets of data then the closest anologues are..

1999

1964

What was the winters like in them years? Also have these analogues got an okay guide rate to the winter weather in the past few years?

[Terminal Moraine]

The winters following that list of years shows about as much variation as it's possible to get.

From the severe cold of 1963 to the mild, wet and windy of 1990.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I think Millions of people will be hoping for a mild winter this year with the fact Gas prices have gone up again today, i don't mind what winters we get but i bet many will be after a mild one, though after the previous 3 a cold one would be a good bet.

It's a worry Gavin, that's for sure. I'm stockpiling wood from the spinney behind us already. I'll be using the woodburner a LOT more this winter !!!

[UV-RAY]

It's a worry Gavin, that's for sure. I'm stockpiling wood from the spinney behind us already. I'll be using the woodburner a LOT more this winter !!!

It won't matter how cold it gets, or how much fuel you use to keep warm. Do you think for one minute those kind caring energy companies, would cut your fuel supply off for non compliance of payments.

[johnholmes]

What was the winters like in them years? Also have these analogues got an okay guide rate to the winter weather in the past few years?

It has to be said again-no one, professional or amateur has EVER found any reliable links, analogues for any period year, month, season, that accurately predicts the winter or indeed any season.

Had they then the major centres with their enormous computing power would have discovered the correct links many years ago.

Its fun looking for links but none exist with any degree of accuracy I'm afraid.

Edited July 9, 2011 by johnholmes

[Turnedoutniceagain]

"High Summer" is in full swing in TONA's garden.

Apples and pears are swelling by the day. Cotoneaster, hawthorn and holly bushes are heaving with berries that are keen to turn red. Raspberries, wild cherry and Goose-Gogs are juicy and plentiful, whilst the brambles are still in flower. Plenty of sloes, elderberries and damsons are showing in the orchard and will be an integral part of the fruit gin production line in September.

My son is eyeing up the conkers and fully expecting to find a "Champion" for the Autumn term school conker championships. Sweet chestnuts and hazelnuts are also plentiful - hope I get to them before the squirrels this year.

So far, so good. All seems in order, though I think a week or so early??

[Eugene]

I think Millions of people will be hoping for a mild winter this year with the fact Gas prices have gone up again today

Well as a mild winter usually means a wet one too your saying millions of the british public want a wet winter where they cant go out, sorry but no, more likely they want a winter that is HP dominated with hardly any snow and as HP in winter generally equals quite cold weather then thats what they would prefer.

Just because the public dont want excessive heat in summer doesnt mean they want a wet summer either.

[Methuselah]

It has to be said again-no one, professional or amateur has EVER found any reliable links, analogues for any period year, month, season, that accurately predicts the winter or indeed any season.

Had they then the major centres with their enormous computing power would have discovered the correct links many years ago.

Its fun looking for links but none exist with any degree of accuracy I'm afraid.

Can't say fairer than that, John.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Well as a mild winter usually means a wet one too your saying millions of the british public want a wet winter where they cant go out, sorry but no, more likely they want a winter that is HP dominated with hardly any snow and as HP in winter generally equals quite cold weather then thats what they would prefer.

Just because the public dont want excessive heat in summer doesnt mean they want a wet summer either.

Given that most people seem to turn their central heating on the moment the temp drops below 13-14C, I can't see any winter synoptics which will save much money........................

I think this winter could prove very interesting - if we get another winter with a significant cold spell then those calling a notable pattern change for UK winter weather since 2008 (at least from the previous 10-15 years) will certainly have further corroboration. If it turns out a real mild one then were the last three winters just an anomaly ?

[snowlover2009]

I agree with the above, a mild winter, would make no difference in my household to be honest, a mild winter is a mild winter, but it is still cold in the UK and whatever happens, we will have heating on throughout!We had it on several times in May, when it was cool and I wouldn't be surprised if we had it on in next week, when the weather gets dreary and wet and temperatures drop to mid teens or below at times.

[EaasmanG]

How mild or cold winter is has a direct effect on the amount of heating, because surely the level to which your heating goes on depends on the outside temperature.

My system uses a thermostat, which means that if it is very cold outside, it uses much more gas and generates a higher water temperature to keep the house at the right temperature.

If the weather was milder, it wouldn't need as much gas and such a high water temperature to keep the house at the right temperature.

Because we run this thermostat the heating would come on even in July if it was cold enough, and it has indeed done so a few times. The difference in winter is that it is on nearly all the time, and the colder the temperature in winter, the more gas it uses.

Edited July 12, 2011 by EaasmanG

[Snowmadsam]

I also have a feeling that we are set for a cold winter.... the reason because I am starting to see blackberries grow on the many brambles in the garden

Edited July 12, 2011 by Sunmadsam