Autumn 2011

[bobbydog]

I enjoyed the extreme cold and I wish it had stayed for alot longer. I went out side in -14c in the early morning, it didn't feel that cold as there was no wind but I decided I would try to walk on my pond... lets just say it didn't end well and I got a wet leg. lol

I love snow and I love thunderstorms I keep asking myself why I was born in england, what tortuous being decided this was to be my homeland? lol

well, it could have been somalia......

[paul tall]

I have been glancing at the seasonal forum archive and its a pity Stratos Ferric doesn't post on here anymore as I would be interested to hear his views now after the winter 2009-10 and the coldest December (2010) for over a century. He was of the opinion that winter 2005-06 was as bad as you get and that a sub 2C month was about the floor for the CET.

It is indeed a pity that Stratos Ferric doesn't post on here anymore, because I'd have loved to have seen him try and blag and squirm his way through the last two winters, when he was taking a break from shoveling snow of course.

WHY doesn't he post here anymore?

[Somerset Squall]

It is indeed a pity that Stratos Ferric doesn't post on here anymore, because I'd have loved to have seen him try and blag and squirm his way through the last two winters, when he was taking a break from shoveling snow of course.

WHY doesn't he post here anymore?

Perhaps to avoid doing the above? :lol:

[Weather-history]

Winter 2010-11 cannot be described as a winter that is cold overall

You could say that of a lot of winters that were below average. Winters 1981-82, 1984-85 and 1985-86 were sub 3C but they contained a month that wasn't below average.

1894-95 is another example.

[Evening thunder]

I enjoyed the extreme cold and I wish it had stayed for alot longer. I went out side in -14c in the early morning, it didn't feel that cold as there was no wind but I decided I would try to walk on my pond... lets just say it didn't end well and I got a wet leg. lol

I love snow and I love thunderstorms I keep asking myself why I was born in england, what tortuous being decided this was to be my homeland? lol

I feel your frustration sometimes, but I guess we're lucky we wern't born on the Scilly Isles though, from what I can find their lowest min in winter 2009/10 was +1.1C, and their lowest min in winter 2010/11 was -0.6C. Though I guess they would have more interest from wind and Atlantic storms there, and a lovely place just not for large temp variations.

I also went out in -14C on Xmas day and it was stunning, there was feathered frost on fences near the river, the river was freezing over in places and two swans were asleep in the ice on the river where it had frozen around them (they were able to break free). There was also one of those circular 'ice disks' that had formed where there was an eddy. In 2009 there was one further up the same river.

http://www.harpfordw...a6ba1335_0f.jpg just a pic I took of the river behind my house showing the ice circle thing and swans, from my website where I put a lot of pics from December.

The day was stunning with 6+ inches of snow, sparkling blue sky all day and a min/max of -14/-2C. Overall December 2010 beat the January 2010 cold spell, which was the best I'd seen up to that point, by a country mile here. There was 25cm laying snow on the 20th.

Edited July 17, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Rustynailer]

Stratos Ferric has a reputation of -1. :smiliz23:

I think that this coming winter in all laws of averages should be warmer than last winter. So for that reason I will go for an even colder and snowbound winter than last year. Expect the unexpected.

[summer blizzard]

Going to use this thread for my experiment.

Basically every year i monitor when the -10C isotherm retuns in the Northern Hemisphere and compare it to the current year.

Modelling suggests that we will not have it before the 24th at least this year (based on GFS out to 180 hours).

So, using 1st August as a point to aim for, we have the following years (since 1998 because that is how far northern hemisphere charts go back)...

2000: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2000/avn/Rhavn00220000801.png

2002: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2002/avn/Rhavn00220020801.png

2003: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2003/avn/Rhavn00220030801.png

2007: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2007/avn/Rhavn00220070801.png

2010: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2010/avn/Rhavn00220100801.png (earliest cold pooling since at least 1998)

You could argue that it will make no difference come winter however logic to me dictates that the better the head start, the better in terms of there being more cold to displace to mid-lattitudes.

GFS6z suggests that 31st July could be our date this year.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png

[Met4Cast]

Going to use this thread for my experiment.

Basically every year i monitor when the -10C isotherm retuns in the Northern Hemisphere and compare it to the current year.

Modelling suggests that we will not have it before the 24th at least this year (based on GFS out to 180 hours).

So, using 1st August as a point to aim for, we have the following years (since 1998 because that is how far northern hemisphere charts go back)...

2000: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2000/avn/Rhavn00220000801.png

2002: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2002/avn/Rhavn00220020801.png

2003: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2003/avn/Rhavn00220030801.png

2007: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2007/avn/Rhavn00220070801.png

2010: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2010/avn/Rhavn00220100801.png (earliest cold pooling since at least 1998)

You could argue that it will make no difference come winter however logic to me dictates that the better the head start, the better in terms of there being more cold to displace to mid-lattitudes.

GFS6z suggests that 31st July could be our date this year.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png

GFS has the -10c Isotherm as early as the 22nd, but by the next chart its gone.

[feb1991blizzard]

An alarming trend towards a la nina winter is being projected on the CFS. I know a weak la nina would be okay but 2 months ago it was looking neutral, i wouldnt panic in July but i just think the closer the models are to neutral as we enter autumn, the more margin for error we have. Does anyone have the link for the NOAA discussions on La Nina, i cant seem to find them.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino12SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino3SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino4SSTMon.gif

[bobbydog]

An alarming trend towards a la nina winter is being projected on the CFS. I know a weak la nina would be okay but 2 months ago it was looking neutral, i wouldnt panic in July but i just think the closer the models are to neutral as we enter autumn, the more margin for error we have. Does anyone have the link for the NOAA discussions on La Nina, i cant seem to find them.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ino12SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....nino3SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....ino34SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....nino4SSTMon.gif

not sure if this is what you're looking for but it might be in here:

My link

[feb1991blizzard]

not sure if this is what you're looking for but it might be in here:

My link

Thanks. This is what i was looking for and according to these discussions the smart money is on a neutral enso signal into 2012.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[snowlover2009]

An alarming trend towards a la nina winter is being projected on the CFS. I know a weak la nina would be okay but 2 months ago it was looking neutral, i wouldnt panic in July but i just think the closer the models are to neutral as we enter autumn, the more margin for error we have. Does anyone have the link for the NOAA discussions on La Nina, i cant seem to find them.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ino12SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....nino3SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....ino34SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....nino4SSTMon.gif

logically we have even better chance of a pretty cold winter throughout, more than last year, the la nina is being progged less strong for november and december. so really good signs IMO. I could be reading this wrong actually, i am not use to them.

Edited July 17, 2011 by snowlover2009

[TEITS]

I have been glancing at the seasonal forum archive and its a pity Stratos Ferric doesn't post on here anymore as I would be interested to hear his views now after the winter 2009-10 and the coldest December (2010) for over a century. He was of the opinion that winter 2005-06 was as bad as you get and that a sub 2C month was about the floor for the CET.

I find it very frustrating that SF doesn't post anymore especially as I had so many heated debates with him on this subject. I do miss his posts and wish he would return. I might of disagreed with him but I still enjoyed reading his opinions on various subjects.

[Staffordshire]

Someone over at the dailymail forum is cloaking this year has followed very similar tracks as 1962

two warm winter months, followed by a colder march, then a dry spring, then a bit of a crappy summer...

[johnholmes]

I find it very frustrating that SF doesn't post anymore especially as I had so many heated debates with him on this subject. I do miss his posts and wish he would return. I might of disagreed with him but I still enjoyed reading his opinions on various subjects.

yep we have our differences TEITS but ditto to that-I loved his very very dry humour and rather caustic wit, he was never afraid to direct it at who he felt deserved it but a poster to take note of.

[AderynCoch]

Someone over at the dailymail forum is cloaking this year has followed very similar tracks as 1962

two warm winter months, followed by a colder march, then a dry spring, then a bit of a crappy summer...

Someone over at the dailymail forum doesn't know their backside from their elbow. January wasn't warm, and though February was March was still warmer. Even if we were matching 1962 so far this year it wouldn't mean anything.

[WRCHowler]

Does anyone have any previous data, or knowledge of 4 cold winters in a row ??. At 42 yrs of age i cant remember having more than 1 maybe 2 in a row regards.

[Weather-history]

Does anyone have any previous data, or knowledge of 4 cold winters in a row ??. At 42 yrs of age i cant remember having more than 1 maybe 2 in a row regards.

Winters 1961-62 to 1964-65 were all sub 4C for the CET

Winters 1835-36 to 1841-42 were all sub 4C for the CET

Winters 1807-08 to 1815-16 were all sub 4C for the CET

So using a benchmark of 4C for the CET, there have been runs of sub 4C winters.

Edited July 19, 2011 by Mr_Data

[North-Easterly Blast]

You could say that of a lot of winters that were below average. Winters 1981-82, 1984-85 and 1985-86 were sub 3C but they contained a month that wasn't below average.

1894-95 is another example.

Winter 2010-11 wasn't below 3*C.

By a winter being cold overall, I tend to think of where a large part of the winter has been cold or at least the cold spells were spread through the winter. I call 1995-96 a cold winter overall, as there were cold spells throughout the winter with only a mild spell in early to mid January. Winters 1981-82, 84-85, and 85-86 could certainly be best described as winters that had notable cold spells. 85-86 was certainly cold overall after the Xmas period, and so was 84-85. Even 2008-09 was a reasonable winter overall, although it wasn't especially cold, at least cold spells were much more spread through the winter, much better than 2010-11. A winter with a similar CET to 2010-11 but far better spread out is 1968-69, which was a pretty decent winter with some good cold spells, but still a mixed bag with a fairly mild January, meaning that it didn't end up too cold overall.

The main difference is with 2010-11, it was only notable for having the most prolonged pre Xmas freeze up on record, but the whole of the rest of the winter post Dec 27th was certainly nothing special, with the February in particular quite the opposite to anything cold. Take out the first 27 days of December 2010, which is removing less than a third of the winter period from the equation, and winter 2010-11 has a CET of 5.0, not the 3.1 that it was with the pre Xmas freeze. Putting this into perspective clearly shows that winter 2010-11 is the most "pear shaped" winter on record.

There have been other pear shaped winters, meaning winters that have brought a good early cold spell that deteriorated into nothing / rubbish, like 1996-97, 1917-18, 1925-26, 1927-28 etc but winter 2010-11 certainly exceeds these and comes to about as pear shaped a winter as we have ever had.

Winters 1961-62 to 1964-65 were all sub 4C for the CET

Winters 1835-36 to 1841-42 were all sub 4C for the CET

Winters 1807-08 to 1815-16 were all sub 4C for the CET

So using a benchmark of 4C for the CET, there have been runs of sub 4C winters.

Also is the run from 1995-96 to 2008-09 the longest interval on record without a sub 4*C winter?

[Gray-Wolf]

Well I've looked and looked and looked but nobody seems to be mentioning the Arctic Amplification and it's measured impacts on our N.Hemisphere weather in late Autumn/Early winter?

If what we are told is close to the mark then why would we not have a repeat of the past 3 winters(well one had the aid of solar min so went on later but what the hey?) ,Looking at the rapid rate of melt going on across the Arctic Basin at the moment (and opening up of the basin waters to the sun) I'd say that we stand a good chance of having a repeat of the Nov/early Dec of last year?

The only 'fly in the ointment' is the prospect of a total melt out of the Beaufort sea.

With only Barents/Kara melted out over summer you kinda know where the A.A. generated H.P. will sit and so where the Arctic air will be displaced (and the WAA will occur). With another swathe of the ocean now looking to join in the fun then it may be eastern Europe/Asia that cop the cold this year and us the WAA (which won't please many apart from the folk keen on overnight temp max records?).

My late Autumn/Early winter forecast is therefore for a very positive AO and (if any has space to form?) cold Arctic plunges for some areas of the N.Hemisphere with the Associated WAA for others.......

[snowlover2009]

Well I've looked and looked and looked but nobody seems to be mentioning the Arctic Amplification and it's measured impacts on our N.Hemisphere weather in late Autumn/Early winter?

If what we are told is close to the mark then why would we not have a repeat of the past 3 winters(well one had the aid of solar min so went on later but what the hey?) ,Looking at the rapid rate of melt going on across the Arctic Basin at the moment (and opening up of the basin waters to the sun) I'd say that we stand a good chance of having a repeat of the Nov/early Dec of last year?

The only 'fly in the ointment' is the prospect of a total melt out of the Beaufort sea.

With only Barents/Kara melted out over summer you kinda know where the A.A. generated H.P. will sit and so where the Arctic air will be displaced (and the WAA will occur). With another swathe of the ocean now looking to join in the fun then it may be eastern Europe/Asia that cop the cold this year and us the WAA (which won't please many apart from the folk keen on overnight temp max records?).

My late Autumn/Early winter forecast is therefore for a very positive AO and (if any has space to form?) cold Arctic plunges for some areas of the N.Hemisphere with the Associated WAA for others.......

So you think we will get a mild winter. no offence, but you say we have a good chance of a cold spell like the one in november and december last year and then go onto say you think we will get a positive ao, which correlates to mild weather usually here?

Edited July 19, 2011 by snowlover2009

[bobbydog]

Well I've looked and looked and looked but nobody seems to be mentioning the Arctic Amplification and it's measured impacts on our N.Hemisphere weather in late Autumn/Early winter?

If what we are told is close to the mark then why would we not have a repeat of the past 3 winters(well one had the aid of solar min so went on later but what the hey?) ,Looking at the rapid rate of melt going on across the Arctic Basin at the moment (and opening up of the basin waters to the sun) I'd say that we stand a good chance of having a repeat of the Nov/early Dec of last year?

The only 'fly in the ointment' is the prospect of a total melt out of the Beaufort sea.

With only Barents/Kara melted out over summer you kinda know where the A.A. generated H.P. will sit and so where the Arctic air will be displaced (and the WAA will occur). With another swathe of the ocean now looking to join in the fun then it may be eastern Europe/Asia that cop the cold this year and us the WAA (which won't please many apart from the folk keen on overnight temp max records?).

My late Autumn/Early winter forecast is therefore for a very positive AO and (if any has space to form?) cold Arctic plunges for some areas of the N.Hemisphere with the Associated WAA for others.......

according to the link you posted earlier on the arctic ice thread, they mention how the melting ice could affect the atlantic conveyor belt. as some will already know, the theory being that the fresh water from the melt will weaken the flow (to put it as simply as possible) having watched the noaa ocean current monitoring, since the big story last year of the 'gulf stream slowing down' (albeit with a sceptical pinch of salt) and the doom and gloom mongering of a certain daily mail forum poster who now has a self proclaimed 'professional' forecast going, i have to admit, from my own observations, it appears to have weakened considerably. if this is the case, what are your thoughts on this?

the records only go back 3 months so i can only go from memory but heres a link anyway :

http://http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-0-large-rundate=latest

Edited July 19, 2011 by bobbydog

[arcticadventurer]

A very Positive AO We will hold you to your forecast Gray Wolf.! Enso Neutral with a possibility of switching back to a La Nina doesnt auger well for a mild winter over the British Isle. I would expect the reverse. Snow- mid November? December and January with another flip back to milder conditions in February. It is very early days yet of course.Autumn has already started two weeks earlier Havent you npticed

[Weather-history]

2010-11 is the most "pear shaped" winter on record.

but winter 2010-11 certainly exceeds these and comes to about as pear shaped a winter as we have ever had.

Whats happened has happened and harping on about it ain't gonna change it one bit except increasingly annoy people.

The trouble with some people its not enough, wasn't enough to have lived through the 2nd coldest December on record for the CET? Wasn't it enough to live through the coldest run-up to Christmas in recorded meterological history? The coldest CET spell since early 1963? A CET spell colder than January 1940?

I'm not a moderator and the mods feel free amending my post but please do not subject us with this in the run up to next winter like you have in the past with January 1984, cold zonality and other bugbears that you constantly go on about.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Whats happened has happened and harping on about it ain't gonna change it one bit except increasingly annoy people.

The trouble with some people its not enough, wasn't enough to have lived through the 2nd coldest December on record for the CET? Wasn't it enough to live through the coldest run-up to Christmas in recorded meterological history? The coldest CET spell since early 1963? A CET spell colder than January 1940?

I'm not a moderator and the mods feel free amending my post but please do not subject us with this in the run up to next winter like you have in the past with January 1984, cold zonality and other bugbears that you constantly go on about.

I thought the previous so called pear shaped winter, 1996-97, was awful enough to live through, for an early cold spell just to deteriorate into nothing, and from what I can see in the records, 1917-18, 1925-26, 1927-28 were as bad as 96-97, but when last winter came along I found it all the worse. I would much rather have had the sort of weather like we had in late Nov / Dec 2010 spread through the winter period better instead of going belly up before Xmas is hardly out of the way. Good heavens, it wasn't even the close of December when winter 2010-11 went belly up. Something even like 2008-09 would have been better, which did have cold spells spread through the winter.

Winter 1986-87 was a winter that had a notable cold spell around mid-point, though the rest of the winter wasn't special, and take out the period 7th to 20th Jan 1987, then winter 1986-87 has a CET of 4.6, not the 3.5 that it ended up. Removing 14 days adds 1.1 to the CET. This clearly shows that winter 86-87 wasn't all a notable cold spell cracked it up to be. A number of people have often remembered winter 86-87 as a classic when in fact outside a 14 day spell in mid Jan it was far from a classic. A similar situation applies to winter 2010-11. removing the first 27 days of December means that winter 2010-11 has a CET of 5.0, not 3.1.

We can all hope, as there is actually the prospect of a closer to neutral ENSO state this coming winter than the last one; a weak La Nina would be OK, but if La Nina gets too strong like last winter, then it brought a pear shaped winter, or in the past a winter that is largely devoid of anything wintry like 2007-08.

Edited July 20, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast